FanGraphs now has Dan Szymborski’s Three Year ZiPS Projections on both the sortable projections pages and all of the player pages.

As Dan notes:

It’s the ZiPS you love/like/hate, now slightly less accurate! Predicting the future is foggy and the further you go, the thicker the fog gets. Every time ZiPS runs a projection, it provides a player’s rest-of-career projection, but until now, only the first-year projection has been made public on a systematic basis.

ZiPS is a non-parametric model, deriving aging curves from very large groups of similar players, so history is the main guide. After all, there’s no experimental data; it’d be nice to let Jose Altuve play out his career a million times in a million realities and see how he ages, but that’s currently impossible. Plus, the MLBPA probably would not be open to participating in this unending purgatory.

The three-year projections are start-of-season projections. There’s currently no mechanism to update future projections the same way the in-season projections are calculated. The year-to-year model that ZiPS uses is much more robust than the in-season model and I am not smart enough to have figured out an automatic workaround yet.

We’ve added a column on THE BOARD called “Current Level” displaying the most recent minor league level the prospect has played at or has been transacted to.

The process of programmatically determining a prospect’s current level is slightly less straight forward than it might seem. For example, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently a Blue Jays non-roster invitee, so his Minor League Baseball stat page has him listed as Blue Jay, but he hasn’t played a MLB game.

To mitigate problems like this, we are using a combination of our game logs and MLB’s transaction list, along with some logic to determine the prospect’s level. Here’s the summary of the logic:

• If the prospect hasn’t played in the majors, he cannot have the majors as his level.
• We look at the most recent minor and major league games the player has played and find the game with the most recent date.
• We look at the most recent transaction MLB has listed.
• We compare the transaction and last game to determine which is more recent and use that for level, with consideration of the MLB debut.

This logic will prevent prospect non-roster invitees in Spring Training from displaying as being at the major league level. The transaction and game log approach will provide some robustness against any errant transaction data. Since this is programmatic, there isn’t any judgement on whether an assignment is temporary, like a rehab stint would be.

If you notice any errors, there could be a delay because the data processing runs overnight, but if it persists, please let us know.

Have you had your morning coffee yet? Here’s something for you:

In the seven years since his debut as a precocious 19-year-old back in 2011, Mike Trout has been worth 64.9 wins above replacement — nearly 20 more than the next-greatest mark achieved over that period (Buster Posey’s 47.3). If you look since 2012, which eliminates Trout’s 0.7 win 2011, the gulf is just as wide: Trout’s 64.2 wins are as far ahead of second-place Posey (45.4) as Posey is of 21st place Jonathan Lucroy (26.3). Trout holds the record for most WAR through age 21, 22, 23, 24, and 26 (Ty Cobb beat him out for 25). Mike Trout is 23rd all time in career WAR through age 30, and he is only 27 years old. Mike Trout is already an average Hall of Famer, and his career can’t yet drive or buy a drink.

Now he’s also signed the biggest contract in professional sports history, besting in one swoop both Zack Greinke’s $34.4 million AAV (Trout will get $36 million), and, by $100 million, Bryce Harper’s briefly record-setting $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. Trout will be an Angel for life and he is already the greatest to ever wear that uniform. Craig Edwards will have a much longer post putting this all in context later today, but for now, please take this time to discuss, reflect, and enjoy. Mike Trout is baseball’s greatest player, he should be the game’s biggest star, and he’s finally going to be paid like it.

In what will be its 16th season suspending players for taking performance enhancing drugs, Major League Baseball has given Steven Wright an 80-game suspension. Tests revealed a growth hormone in Wright’s system. Wright indicated he didn’t know how the PED entered his body, but accepted the suspension. 2019 will mark the second straight year in which Wright will begin the season with a suspension; he missed 15 games in 2018 after violating the league’s domestic violence policy.

Without Wright, the Red Sox depth in the bullpen will be tested. I tried to test the depth of the Red Sox myself, but I almost broke both of my arms trying to swim in a pool of baseball players.

Jay Jaffe just wrote about the Red Sox bullpen as it relates to their lack of pursuit of Craig Kimbrel, despite losing the aforementioned closer as well as Joe Kelly.

Nobody new of any note has come into the fold besides Jenrry Mejia, who signed a minor league deal in January after being reinstated from a PED-related, lifetime ban that cost him the past 3 1/2 seasons. Via our depth charts, the primary pool of relievers appears to consist of lefties Brian Johnson and Bobby Poyner, and righties Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Heath Hembree, Tyler Thornburg, Hector Velazquez, Marcus Walden, and Brandon Workman, with knuckleballer Steven Wright coming along slowly after arthroscopic surgery on his left knee [update: and also suspended for 80 games due to a PED violation] and Carson Smith not available until sometime in midseason as he works his way back from last June’s shoulder surgery.

Jaffe took a look at the ‘pen’s depth chart and noted the projections were not very good. Wright’s 0.1 WAR projection doesn’t make his suspension seem like a big loss, but knuckleballers might be a difficult bunch to project given the lack of comps. The Red Sox were certainly planning on using him and saw something beyond what our projections see, or at least, saw something better than their other in-house options, which include little help from the minors.

While Wright wasn’t expected to start, it’s also worth noting the Red Sox have almost no starting pitching depth either. They have a very good starting five with Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Rick Porcello, and Eduardo Rodriguez, but almost nothing beyond that. Boston should be a very good team this season, but their pitching staff has some weakness to it. Wright’s suspension isn’t likely to affect much, but it does hurt their depth just a little bit more, and in what is likely to be a tight division, small losses can have big impacts.

It’s not as significant as the Week One update, but we have about another dozen or so players that have moved around since we last updated THE BOARD. Here are some quick notes covering the most notable movers in the 2019 list, with trend arrows for all of these names and more available on THE BOARD:

• Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung and Vanderbilt RF J.J. Bleday both have some buzz in the industry as being in the mix to be the third-best college bat behind Oregon State C Adley Rutschman and Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn (both recent risers themselves); Jung and Bleday have moved up to reflect this. Bleday is off to a quick start and looks more athletic than he has in the past, while Jung is a hit-first type who could improve considerably with more loft in his swing in pro ball, but compares favorably to some recent top-10 overall college bats. Others college bats in that mix are UNLV SS Bryson Stott, North Carolina LF Michael Busch, and the big riser in the last update, Missouri RF Kameron Misner.
• North Carolina State SS Will Wilson is also a rising player, as a potential 5 hit, 5 power middle infielder who likely ends up at second base. Some scouts see plus makeup and versatility with a chance that he may end up catching in pro ball and being an Austin Barnes or Will Smith type who can play every position on the field. Wilson’s polish, performance, and fit in today’s game could push him into the top 15 picks.
• Clemson SS Logan Davidson and UNC-Wilmington SS Greg Jones each face questions about their hit tool, but Jones stays slightly ahead of Davidson because his upside is still much higher. On the flip side, Arizona State LF Hunter Bishop has 7 raw power and 6 speed and is hitting much better this year, so he’s rising until further notice.
• Duke LHP Graeme Stinson looked like the clear top pitcher in the class when the college season was set to start, with scouts having confidence that his mid-90s fastball and 70 slider could transition to starting full-time. He’s performed well, but the velocity has kept creeping down — he was into the 80s this weekend — to the point where scouts are openly questioning if there’s an arm problem or if Stinson simply can’t start and needs to be seen as a reliever going forward. Even a worst-case scenario still has him in the top 30 picks or so, but his stock has dipped a good bit.

There was further movement lower in the rankings, and some light changes in the 2020 and 2021 classes. A few fun notes on those future classes — for instance, fourth-ranked 2020 prospect Georgia RHP Cole Wilcox was 95-99 mph this weekend after a tough college debut, Florida State 2021 RF Robby Martin has really impressed scouts early, and 2020 Mississippi State RHP J.T. Ginn is showing more starter traits than he did in high school — have been folded into the rankings, as well.

Our long ex-National’s nightmare is over. According to a flurry of reports, Bryce Harper has agreed to a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phillies, who apparently withstood late challenges from the Giants and Dodgers in landing the 26-year-old former overall number one pick. Thirteen years, as in through the 2031 season! That means Harper will still be in Philly when Gritty is bar mitzvah’d.

In the end, Harper and agent Scott Boras toppled Giancaro Stanton’s 13-year, $325 million extension (signed in November 2014) for the claim of the largest contract in baseball history. With an average annual value of “only” $25.38 million, the deal merely ranks 14th all-time, and third this winter behind Nolan Arenado‘s just-completed eight-year, $260 million extension ($32.5 million AAV) and Manny Machado’s 10-year, $300 million free agent deal. Philly-wise, it edges the $25 million per year of Ryan Howard and Jake Arrieta as far as the franchise record is concerned. It’s worth noting that the lower AAV over the longer time frame would allow the team some additional flexibility if, for example, a certain Millville, New Jersey native were to test free agency following the 2020 season (h/t Joe Sheehan). Via Cot’s Contracts, the team’s payroll for Competitive Balance Tax purposes is just shy of $188 million, leaving open the possibility that they could still sign Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel and still wind up under the $206 million threshold.

As far as bells and whistles go, Harper’s deal has a full no-trade clause, but it does not include any opt outs or deferred money; it’s been described as “front loaded.” As we recently learned — reportedly included roughly $100 million in deferred money, the 10-year, $300 million offer that the Nationals made reportedly included roughly $100 million in deferred money, lowering its present day value considerably. Our own Craig Edwards presented one such scenario:

To provide some context, a 10yr/$300 M deal that paid $20 M/year for 10 years and $10 M/year for 10 years after that would have the same present value as a straight 10-year deal for $244 million. Just one example but the potential financial hit is huge. https://t.co/brJVq7TAVG

— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) February 21, 2019

As far as the Phillies’ lineup goes, Harper would likely replace Nick Williams, who moved from right field to left to accommodate the team’s earlier signing of Andrew McCutchen and, eyeballing our depth charts, boost their projected win total from 83 to 87.

Edwards will have a detailed analysis shortly, and we’ll have more to say about the deal from a variety of angles as well.

If you’ve perused FanGraphs’ player pages this morning, you may have noticed that the 2019 ZiPS Projections have now officially been added into the database, with players all projected based on their most recent organization as of late Sunday, February 24th.

ZiPS projections are also now included in this season’s Projected Standings, mixed in along with the Steamer projections. So if you find yourself with a particular urge to praise or curse your favorite team’s projected record today, that might be why.

Coming up, at a date still to be determined, will be the 2020 and 2021 projections from ZiPS. While ZiPS has spit out multi-year projections since about 2006, I’ve generally greedily hoarded those projections for my own nefarious uses, but even Ebeneszym Scrooge can occasionally see the light. I will not be buying a Christmas goose for Tiny Tim Collins, however.

The WAR listed for players on the ZiPS 2019 projections page has also been moved over to the FanGraphs WAR, in order to be consistent across the website, allowing you to compare apples to apples instead of apples to battleships (apples and oranges aren’t really that different, after all).

A few things stick out to me when looking at the projection set as a whole:

• The Yankees have overtaken the Red Sox for the most projected wins in baseball with 98, up from 96. Boston, meanwhile, drops a win, going from 96 to 95. That’s not a lot, but it is enough to push their projected win total behind that of the Astros, who now have the second highest projected win total with 96. The Marlins now have the (dis)honor of baseball’s worst projected record with a paltry 62 wins, slipping behind the Orioles.
• The Brewers got their expected ZiPS bump, as they did last year, with ZiPS simply being more of a believer in the adequacy of their starting pitching than most. Stirring ZiPS into the stew is enough to get the Brewers above .500 and into third place in the NL Central, above the Pirates and Reds.
• Even after all the other teams have gone live, ZiPS still holds a special place in its hard drive for Cleveland’s rotation. Especially notable is Shane Bieber, who ZiPS projects as 13th in WAR among pitchers, meaning the computer loves Bieber more than you or I have ever loved anything. And that’s still only good for fourth best in the rotation! One can perhaps understand why the Indians were open to trading Corey Kluber.
• Most pitchers would be very happy with a 3.9 WAR projection, but I believe this is the first time Clayton Kershaw’s has dropped below that in ZiPS since his rookie season.
• ZiPS sees third base as the most talented position on the field right now, with the five players projected at five WAR or greater and a whopping 11 players projected to hit the four WAR margin. That’s out of only 13 and 34 total position players respectively.

So enjoy the projections and remember: even if Carson Cistulli is no longer with us here at FanGraphs, he can still be at fault for all the projections that are wrong.

Is there something you’d like to see in ZiPS on FanGraphs? Let us know!

Position: Marquee Analytics Cape Cod Baseball League Video Scouting Internships

Location: Cape Cod, Mass.

Description:
Marquee Analytics provides outsourced video scouting services to major league baseball organizations and is seeking qualified candidates to work as Video Scouting Interns for the 2019 Cape Cod Baseball League season. Interns will track rosters, capture live video footage from every game of the CCBL season, and upload those games using specialized software. The internships run from June 8, 2019 to August 14, 2019 and will include compensation.

Responsibilities:

• Manage video and computer equipment for data capture.
• Score and chart live games using specialized software.
• Track and update rosters and player information.
• Verify data accuracy and video quality.
• Provide daily updates to staff and content partners.

Qualifications:

• Knowledge of baseball rules and scorekeeping.
• Proficiency with computers (Windows, Mac).
• Experience with video equipment including cameras, sd cards, and basic cabling is preferred.
• Strong work ethic and attention to detail.
• Must have access to reliable transportation and housing on Cape Cod.

To Apply:
To apply, please send an email with the subject “2019 CCBL Internship,” your resume, and a cover letter to joe@marqueeanalytics.com.

We’ve updated our 2019 MLB Draft rankings in a big way, moving a couple dozen players after two weeks of games, expanding to list 200 players total, and adding trend arrows. We also made some slight tweaks to the 2020 and 2021 rankings. Here’s a quick rundown of what we saw and heard over the last few weeks to prompt us to move some players into the top half of the first round on the 2019 list:

1. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
After Eric watched him go off again this weekend, we’ve upgraded him to a 60 FV and would have him right behind Keibert Ruiz at 16 on the Top 100. He’s creating more distance between himself and the field for the top pick.

2. C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
The next couple players behind Rutschman are still pretty tightly packed, but Abrams looks stronger (55 present raw power) and is still a 70 runner, though scouts are still split on his best long-term positional fit. He appears to be solidly in every club’s top five, and is now the industry consensus for the Royals at pick number two.

9. Kameron Misner, RF, Missouri
We had Misner in a “wait and see” bucket after he skipped the summer, and the early returns are very positive. Scouts who generally hadn’t seen him other than in scrimmage looks in the fall are dropping 70 raw power grades on him, and think he’ll work his way into the conversation for the best college bat behind Rutschman, with some clubs in the top 10 rumored to have him on their shortlist already, including the White Sox at three.

12. Shea Langliers, C, Baylor
Langliers broke his hamate bone and will miss a few weeks. He likely won’t show much game power before the draft, so he may slide even lower than this after the prospects rising behind him have a chance to string together a month of performance at their new levels.

14. George Kirby, RHP, Elon
Kirby dealt in his first outing, delivering on the first round rumors we heard entering the spring. The stuff is above to plus and there are starter traits present.

15. Matthew Allan, RHP, Seminole HS (FL)
We noted last week in print and on the podcast that Allan was up to 97 and flashed a plus curveball in his season debut.

Other Movers

Jackson Rutledge and Alek Manoah both look more starter-ish and have maintained their plus stuff. Graeme Stinson’s velo was down in his starting debut and scouts are concerned. Logan Davidson’s hit tool has always been a question and it still is. Michael Toglia was too passive in Kiley’s look this weekend and his righty swing leaves a lot to be desired. J.J. Bleday looks more athletic than some expected. Hunter Barco has a higher slot and firmer stuff. Seth Johnson was up to 98 mph in his season debut and many think he can start. Carter Stewart had a really rough start after a couple that were fine. J.J. Goss has had better velocity and consistency than teammate Matthew Thompson.

Hunter Bishop, Brett Baty and Rece Hinds have all hit more than expected and all have huge power; one likely ends up in the first round. Hunter Gaddis is generating buzz early, showing both above average stuff and feel. Brandon Williamson and Drey Jamison were mentioned last week in Eric’s Arizona looks as deserving of the Top 100; Grant Gambrell was the top new arm he saw this week. Tyler Dyson and Ryan Zeferjahn have both come out of the gate slowly; Dyson is joined in that regard by teammates Austin Langworthy and Wil Dalton. JuCo righty Orlando Ribalta has been up to 97 and shown starter traits, gaining steam with scouts despite not pitching last season.

Please note, this posting contains three positions.

Baseball Systems Developer, Research & Development

Department: Baseball Operations
Supervisor: Senior Architect, Research and Development
Classification: Full-time (Exempt)

The Houston Astros are seeking a Baseball Systems Developer for the team’s Baseball Research and Development group. The Baseball Systems Developer will work closely with the Senior Architect of R&D as part of a cross-functional agile team to build infrastructure and design systems that encourage the effective understanding and application of information throughout Baseball Operations.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Collaborate with a cross-functional agile team on designing, testing, implementing, and maintaining scalable software for Baseball Operations
• Collaborate with a cross-functional agile team on improving efficiency and scalability of current Baseball Operations software

Education and/or Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree in computer science or related field is preferred
• Proficient in at least two of the following:
• C# and ASP.NET or ASP.NET Core
• HTML/JavaScript (TypeScript preferred)/CSS
• A front-end framework like React, Angular, or Vue
• Experience with Microsoft Azure/Amazon Web Services/Google Cloud platform is preferred
• Experience with continuous integration/continuous deployment is preferred
• Experience with data visualization tools such as Plotly and D3 is preferred
• Experience with formal software (unit/integration/ testing and data-driven development preferred
• Experience with agile software development processes preferred
• Familiarity with Python and R Shiny Apps preferred
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills
• Strong interpersonal and communication skills (written and verbal)

To Apply:
To apply, please visit TeamWorkOnline and complete the application.

Baseball Systems Data Modeler, Research & Development

Department: Baseball Operations
Supervisor: Senior Architect, Research and Development
Classification: Full-time (Exempt)

The Houston Astros are seeking a Baseball Systems Data Modeler for the team’s Baseball Research and Development group. The Baseball Systems Data Modeler will work closely with the Senior Architect of R&D as part of a cross-functional agile team to build infrastructure and design systems that encourage the effective understanding and application of information throughout Baseball Operations.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Create and maintain ETL jobs for incoming data feeds
• Ensure data integrity within the database and data processes
• Design, implement, and maintain data mapping procedures
• Apply statistical methods for handling and testing missing data problems

Education and/or Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree in computer science or related field is preferred
• Experience with SQL Server and T-SQL, including SQL Server Reporting Service and SQL Server Integration Services
• Experience with designing and developing data marts
• Experience with data governance
• Understanding of baseball data (e.g., TrackMan, Statcast) is preferred
• Experience with Microsoft Azure/Amazon Web Services/Google Cloud platform is preferred
• Experience with continuous integration/continuous deployment is preferred
• Experience with agile software development processes preferred
• Experience with software testing and data-driven development preferred
• Familiarity with Python and R is preferred
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills
• Strong interpersonal and communication skills (written and verbal)

To Apply:
To apply, please visit TeamWorkOnline and complete the application.

Machine Learning Engineer, Research & Development

Department: Baseball Operations
Supervisor: Director, Research and Development
Classification: Full-time (Exempt)

The Houston Astros are seeking a Machine Learning Engineer for the team’s Baseball Research and Development group. The Machine Learning Engineer will work closely with the Senior Architect and Director of R&D as part of a cross-functional agile team to deploy statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models at scale and to ensure that they are reliable and repeatable.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

• Collaborate with a cross-functional agile team on developing machine learning systems from prototyping to production
• Support investigation of new software packages/vendors, APIs, and algorithms to deliver quality analytics and machine learning at scale
• Develop infrastructure and tools to productionize new algorithms in a repeatable manner

Education and/or Experience:

• Advanced degree in statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, operations research or similar field or professional experience preferred
• Fluency in R, including experience with the tidyverse and modern R development practices
• Fluency in Python with preference for Python 3 experience
• Experience with software testing and data-driven development strongly preferred
• Experience with large data sets and distributed computing strongly preferred
• Experience with deep learning frameworks (Tensorflow, CNTK, Caffe, etc.) preferred
• Ability to write SQL queries is preferred
• Experience with agile software processes preferred
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills
• Strong interpersonal and communication skills (written and verbal)

To Apply:
To apply, please visit TeamWorkOnline and complete the application.

For all positions:

Work Environment
This job operates in an office setting. This role routinely uses standard office equipment such as computers, phones, photocopiers, and filing cabinets. The noise level is usually moderate but can be loud within the stadium environment.

Physical Demands
The physical demands described here are representative of those that must be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job. This is a largely sedentary role; however, some filing is required. This would require the ability to lift files, open filing cabinets and bend or stand on a stool as necessary.

Position Type and Expected Hours of Work
Ability to work a flexible schedule, including evenings, weekends, and holidays.

Travel
Rare travel maybe expected in this role.

Other Duties
Please note this job description is not designed to cover or contain a comprehensive listing of activities, duties or responsibilities that are required of the employee for this job. Duties, responsibilities and activities may change at any time with or without notice.

The Astros are an equal opportunity employer and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.

EOE/M/F/Vet/Disability.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Houston Astros.