On Tuesday the White Sox acquired 31-year-old veteran strike-thrower Ivan Nova from the Pirates in exchange for 19-year-old Dominican right-hander Yordi Rosario, and $500,000 in international bonus space.

One of the most efficient strike-throwers in baseball, Nova joins a White Sox rotation comprised mostly of young-ish arms who struggle with walks. White Sox starters who threw at least 100 innings last year posted walk rates between 9% (James Shields) and 13% (Hector Santiago), all of which are below average. Nova’s walk rates have hovered in the 4-5% range during each of the last three seasons, the fifth-best rate in baseball during that span. The White Sox seem to have begun adding veteran pieces to a team that has been rebuilding for a while, perhaps with an eye on competing sooner than later in a weak division that has been dominated by a Cleveland club that appears to be focused more on shedding salary than adding premium talent and further separating themselves.

Nova is in the final year of a three-year deal and is set to make about $9 million in 2019. Pittsburgh’s decision to move him was likely motivated by a combination of the desire to shed salary as well as their comparable in-house replacements for the right-hander, who was a 1.1 WAR pitcher in 2018. The Pirates are stocked with several upper-level sinkerballers who should provide a similar quality of performance until promising pitching prospect Mitch Keller, who we ranked no. 2 in the system, is ready for promotion, which will likely be at some point next year.

The Pirates main return was teenage righty Yordi Rosario, who was advanced enough to garner a 2018 mid-summer promotion from the DSL to the AZL. Rosario is one of four young projection arms acquired by Pittsburgh already this offseason, joining Tahnaj Thomas, Dante Mendoza, and Wilkin Ramos, and he shares several traits with them.

Rosario is a spindly 6-foot-2 and has lots of room on his frame for physical growth, which could lead to increased fastball velocity. He repeats a graceful, athletic delivery and throws a lot of strikes with a fastball that currently resides in the 88-92 range and will bump 93 or 94 on occasion. He also has mature feel for an average, 12-6 curveball that has sufficient depth and bite to miss bats against low-level hitters. We had a 35+ FV on Rosario when the season ended and he’ll slot into the same tier on the Pirates list. His reasonable ceiling is that of a no. 4 or 5 starter, unless he grows into better stuff than I anticipate.

The Luis Robert signing late in the 2016-2017 International Free Agent put the White Sox in the bonus penalty box for the two subsequent signing periods. They’re barred from signing prospects for more than $300,000 until July 2 2019, so their international bonus money is arguably best used in trades like this. What Pittsburgh does with that international bonus space before the current signing period ends in June is undetermined. All of the top IFA talents have signed and the Pirates will be competing for the remaining prospects with teams that lost out on the Victor Victor Mesa sweepstakes, especially Baltimore, which still has several million dollars to spend. Pittsburgh has been more active in Asia than most other clubs.

A rumor surfaced last night that a three-team trade might be brewing between the Mets, Yankees, and Marlins. According to Ken Rosenthal, J.T. Realmuto would head to the Mets with Noah Syndergaard going to the Yankees. While Realmuto might not fill the Mets’ biggest need, the Marlins catcher is a really good player who would provide a sizable upgrade over the options they have on the roster. For the Yankees, getting another ace-level pitcher in Syndergaard would help them to continue building their rotation after missing out on Patrick Corbin. As for the Marlins, they are obviously looking to get younger as they try to rebuild for the future. The player who might be headed to Miami? That would be Miguel Andujar.

Name to watch with #Yankees: Miguel Andújar. Rival execs tell me and @ByRobertMurray NYY open to moving him. Would make sense as #Marlins’ ask for Realmuto; MIA wants established young MLB player as headliner. Also would line up with NYY pursuit of Machado. Torres could play SS.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2018

The Yankees third baseman is coming off a very good rookie campaign, during which he batted .297/.328/.527 for a 128 wRC+. Andujar features a contact-heavy approach that limits walks and strikeouts. In the Yankees’ Top 27 Prospects write-up last year, this what Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen had to say about Andujar, who they ranked as the 14th-best prospect in baseball heading into the 2018 season.

Andujar has tantalized scouts since early in his pro career with a strong, athletic frame and flashy tools that are above average to plus across the board. He was largely seen as potential, even passed over by all 30 teams in the Rule 5 Draft following the 2015 season. He broke out in a huge way in 2017, reaching a critical mass of adjustments and maturity that showed up in the counting stats.

Andujar has cut down on his swing-and-miss while also lifting the ball more and hitting it with more authority, an obviously rare and desirable combination when you’re already working with a toolsy prospect who was always young for his level.

Andujar lived up to that report last season, and as a batter, he was a top ten third basemen in baseball. With five seasons left of team control, Andujar is a young, cheap potential star. As to why the Yankees might move him, Andujar was very bad on defense last year, 16 runs below average on defense by UZR and -25 by DRS. He should probably not be playing third base. I asked Longenhagen what position Andujar should be playing, and he said he would move him to right field. Andujar has a great arm and above-average sprint speed, so a move to the outfield might showcase his skills better than the hot corner does, but the Yankees already have a full outfield. First base might waste Andujar’s arm and some of his issues in the field might not be alleviated by moving across the diamond. Trading Andujar to help the rotation would also free up a spot to potentially sign Manny Machado.

Putting Andujar in right field limits his ceiling, as an average third baseman with his batting line last season would have been a 4-plus win player. Even slightly below average defense in right field would put Andujar in the three-win range, meaning the bat would need to take another step forward to compensate. That step forward is a possibility for a player who is just 23 years old, especially if he improves his walk rate a little and his strikeouts come down closer to his minor league numbers. That’s still an All-Star level player in right field. Even if the Yankees are making Andujar available, it shouldn’t be seen a huge slight to Andujar. He’s a good player now, and has the potential to be better.

Greetings from the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, where the big excitement of the Tyson Ross signing still hasn’t died down. On Monday, in the wake of Harold Baines‘ shocking election to the Hall of Fame by the Today’s Game Era Committee, I did a pair of TV spots on the subject that I shared on Twitter and figured I’d gather here as well.

First off, here’s the spot I did for Fox Sports South (the RSN of the Braves) with Cory McCartney. Naturally, our discussion touched upon several Atlanta-linked candidates:

"I don't think I've ever been more shocked at a Hall of Fame result."@coryjmccartney catches up with @fangraphs senior writer and JAWS creator @jay_jaffe to discuss if Harold Baines' HOF nod could affect the cases for players like Dale Murphy, Fred McGriff or Andruw Jones. pic.twitter.com/msO0HbydCm

— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) December 11, 2018

And here I am on MLB Now, discussing the election with Brian Kenny, Dan O’Dowd, and Jayson Stark:

That would be 2019 J.G. Taylor Spink Award winner Jayson Stark, whose win was announced at the BBWAA’s winter meeting on Tuesday morning, as well as simultaneously on the organization’s web site. A 40-year veteran of the industry who has spent the bulk of his career at the Philadelphia Inquirer and ESPN (he’s now at The Athletic), Stark has long been a favorite of the statistically inclined, and was at the vanguard when it came to incorporating advanced statistics into his Hall of Fame deliberations (a topic I took up in The Cooperstown Casebook, for which he also provided a glowing back-cover blurb). In doing so, he’s introduced my work to countless people, including fellow voters. Thus, doing a TV spot with him was a bucket-list item given my respect for him and the impact he’s had upon my career. My heartfelt congratulations, Jayson!

For some reason, that MLB Network set upon which our discussion took place is outdoors overlooking a swimming pool, and when I was coming off set, I could not help but notice the potential for disaster and a particular variety of Winter Meetings infamy:

That MLB Now spot was shot outside by a pool for some weird reason. Had I stumbled coming off-set, it would have been Winter Meetings Follies fodder for the ages pic.twitter.com/xzHvctpTRW

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) December 11, 2018

A year ago, the Padres brought back Tyson Ross on an incentive-laden, one-year contract. He had had his best years in San Diego earlier this decade, but underwent Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in 2016; the track record of recovery following that surgery has been spotty at best. Ross made 10 ugly starts for the Rangers in 2017 before the Padres guaranteed him $1.75 million last season. Early in the year, Ross looked like a promising trade chip for a rebuilding San Diego team, using his slider often to get outs. But that wasn’t the way the season ended for the right hander, who was claimed off waivers by the Cardinals. Now, the Tigers are going to try the same gambit as they rebuild. According to Ken Rosenthal, Detroit has agreed to a deal with Ross for one year and $5.75 million.

While the Padres were likely hopeful in May that they would receive a decent prospect for Ross, he ended up netting them nothing. As the year wore on, his arm wore down. In June and July, he made 10 starts, striking out just 16% of batters and walking 11%, and gave up 10 homers on the way to a 5.93 FIP and 5.81 ERA. That incentive-laden contract turned out to be a burden for the Padres, who had to pay Ross $200,000 for each of his starts from number 20 through start 29.

St. Louis used Ross mostly in relief, and while his strikeout and walk numbers weren’t any better, he gave up just one homer in 26.1 innings. This is what Ross’ fastball velocity looked like during the year.

His velocity dipped after a strong start, and was inconsistent the rest of the way, though it ticked back up at the very end of the season. Ross used a cutter more often with the Cardinals and that might have helped increase his ground ball rate and help him last as a starter. Perhaps more experimenting with his good slider could help keep batters off balance.

It’s possible Ross simply can’t withstand starting for a full season given his injury history. Maybe with a year under his belt post-surgery, he’ll have more strength built up to make it through a full year. Ross is pretty far removed from his good seasons, but he’s less than a year removed from being an effective starter, at least for a stretch. The Tigers have made a minimal commitment with low expectations, and can afford to see what the 31-year-old has to offer. If Ross can put it back together again, and if he does, they might be rewarded at the trade deadline.

The Marlins have an interesting relationship with J.T. Realmuto, who might well have blossomed into the best all-around catcher in baseball. The Marlins love Realmuto, and they’ve continued to insist that they want to sign him to a long-term contract extension, to keep him around as the centerpiece of the future core. Yet Realmuto has signed no long-term contract extension, and word has gotten out on more than one occasion that his side feels like he should be traded. You can understand why he might not trust that the Marlins are headed in a promising direction, given his own experiences with the team.

So even just from a psychological perspective, it’s clear why Realmuto might want a fresh start. But then, from a physical perspective, there’s also the matter of his home ballpark. It’s no secret that the Marlins play half of their games in a pitcher-friendly environment, but Realmuto himself has paid a particular price over his first few seasons.

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Having already sold off most of his most valuable roster assets, Jerry Dipoto informed the media his top priority during the winter meetings would be to beef up the bullpen. I didn’t think this was how I’d start off a small post discussing the Mariners’ waiver claim of Kaleb Cowart.

I saw the press release in my inbox and initially didn’t think much of it. Lots of waiver claims today. Mike Gerber. Rio Ruiz. Kaleb Cowart. Others. But then there was a section that caught my eye:

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Billy Hamilton does several things really well. Since the start of the 2014 season, Hamilton has stolen 264 bases, which is the most in baseball. During that time, he’s been worth 51 runs above average on the bases, which is also the best in baseball by a considerable margin. He’s been worth 55 runs above average on defense, which is sixth in the entire sport. Unfortunately, he’s also been a terrible hitter, with an anemic .244/.297/.332 line over the last five seasons. Of the 164 players with at least 2000 plate appearances over that span, Hamilton’s 69 wRC+ comes in dead last. The Reds no longer wished to deal with a player who, despite doing several things really well, is generally below average, particularly as Hamilton’s salary was set to rise in arbitration, so they did not tender him a contract. Hamilton has found a new home in Kansas City.

According to Buster Olney, the Royals and the speedy center fielder have agreed to a deal that will pay Hamilton $5.25 million, plus an additional one million dollars in potential incentives. MLB Trade Rumors projected Hamilton would receive $5.9 million in arbitration, so this deal falls a little short of that estimate.

For the Reds, the move opens up some options in a crowded part of their roster. With a full infield of Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, the surprising Jose Peraza, and Eugenio Suarez, the team didn’t have room for top prospect Nick Senzel. The third base prospect was tried out in the middle infield last season, but he seems likely to take on a new project in center field next year.

Given the terms of Hamilton’s deal with Kansas City, there wasn’t likely a robust trade market for him. In Kansas City, he should get the opportunity to show off his great defensive skills and base running for a team not likely to win a lot of games next year. The Royals still seem to be committed to Brett Phillips, part of the return for Mike Moustakas last season in a deadline deal with the Brewers. That means that Phillips will likely move to right field, and with Alex Gordon in left field, the team should have very good outfield defense, though perhaps not quite on the level of the Boston Red Sox.

Despite his flaws, Billy Hamilton is one of the more exciting players in baseball, and it is good for the sport that he appears to have found a full-time home for next season.

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Barring a blockbuster trade or free agent signing, the first big news out of the Winter Meetings, set to kick off this Sunday in Las Vegas, will be the election results from the Today’s Game Era Committee ballot, which will be announced on MLB Tonight at 8 pm ET/5 pm PT. Any of the 10 candidates — six players, three managers, one owner — receiving at least 75% of the vote will be inducted next July 21 in Cooperstown, along with any candidates elected by the BBWAA in their own balloting, the results of which won’t be announced until January 22.

Last month, when the slate was announced, I covered the basics of the Era Committee process and profiled each candidate at length. The full slate includes former outfielders Harold Baines, Albert Belle, and Joe Carter; first baseman Will Clark; starter Orel Hershiser; reliever Lee Smith; managers Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel, and Lou Piniella; and owner George Steinbrenner. This handy navigational widget contains links to all of those profiles, as well as all of the relevant stats:

As previously noted, the ballot was assembled by an Historical Overview Committee composed of 11 BBWAA veterans, who filtered through dozens of candidates in the process: Bob Elliott (Toronto Sun); Jim Henneman (formerly Baltimore Sun); Rick Hummel (St. Louis Post-Dispatch); Steve Hirdt (Elias Sports Bureau); Bill Madden (formerly New York Daily News); Jack O’Connell (BBWAA); Jim Reeves (formerly Fort Worth Star-Telegram); Tracy Ringolsby (Baseball America); Glenn Schwarz (formerly San Francisco Chronicle); Dave van Dyck (Chicago Tribune); and Mark Whicker (Los Angeles News Group).

The ones doing the actual voting — behind closed doors, via secret ballots that can include up to four candidates — are on a separate 16-member committee of media members, executives and Hall of Famers. That group wasn’t announced until this past Monday. It is as follows:

Hall of Famers: Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Pat Gillick, Tony La Russa, Greg Maddux, Joe Morgan, John Schuerholz, Ozzie Smith, Joe Torre

Executives: Al Avila (Tigers), Paul Beeston (Blue Jays), Andy MacPhail (Phillies), Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox)

Media: Hirdt (the only repeater from the HOC), Tim Kurkjian (ESPN), Claire Smith (ESPN)

The vast majority of the Hall of Famers are recent honorees; the institution doesn’t wait too long to get those folks involved in the process. Alomar, Blyleven, and Gillick were elected in 2011 (the last of those by the Veterans Committee), Maddux, La Russa and Torre in 2014 (the last two of those via the Expansion Era Committee), Schuerholz in 2017 (via the first Today’s Game Era Committee). Claire Smith was the 2017 recipient of the J.G. Taylor Spink Award, the Hall’s honor for writers. Morgan, currently the Hall’s vice chairman, was elected in 1990, Ozzie Smith in 2007.

Given the old Veterans Committees’ history of cronyism, most notably from the 1960s through the 1980s, it’s natural to look for the inevitable links between the voters and the candidates. That’s not to say that anything untoward will happen, but it’s worth noting who might have advocates in the room. I can’t swear that this is comprehensive (and I’m skipping the media connections), but these stand out:

• Baines played under La Russa with the White Sox, and both he and Belle did so during Reinsdorf’s still-ongoing tenure as owner; the former made three separate stints with the team and has had his number retired during that time, while the latter briefly became the game’s highest-paid player during his time there.
• Baines and Carter both played in Baltimore while Gillick was general manager.
• Carter played with Blyleven in Cleveland, and with Alomar in Toronto, while both Beeston and Gillick were both executives.
• Johnson managed Alomar in Baltimore, while Gillick was GM.
• Manuel and Blyleven were teammates in Minnesota; Alomar played for him in Cleveland, and both Gillick and MacPhail have worked with him in Philadelphia.
• Piniella managed in Seattle while Gillick was the GM.
• Smith the reliever played with Smith the shortstop in St. Louis, and with Maddux in Chicago; also, he played for Torre in St. Louis
• Steinbrenner’s stormy tenure as owner of the Yankees featured just one manager who lasted more than four seasons, namely Torre.

I’m not suggesting you take any of that information to the sports book in Vegas, but given the above connections, it would not surprise me if Manuel were elected, and I suppose the same could be said about Baines. To these eyes, however, Smith and Steinbrenner are the slate’s best candidates, and I believe the former all-time saves leader is the most likely to be elected, given that he received over 50% of the vote at one point during his run on the BBWAA ballot. If elected, he’d be just the third living ex-player honored by the Era Committtees, after Jack Morris and Alan Trammell who were elected via last year’s Modern Baseball ballot.

I’ll have coverage of the results here at FanGraphs on Sunday night.

Earlier this week, Patrick Corbin signed with the Nationals as a free agent, getting six guaranteed years and $140 million. It’s a bigger deal than Yu Darvish got last offseason, as another Tommy John surgery survivor. In part, Corbin got that money because the Nationals felt like spending, as they sometimes do. It’s a way for them to brace for the potential loss of Bryce Harper. But the bigger factor here is that Corbin just pitched like an ace. He doesn’t have a track record of doing so, but obviously, there’s belief in his breakout.

This past year, 140 different pitchers threw at least 100 innings. Corbin threw exactly *200* innings. Out of that group, he finished with a top-ten K-BB%, and he finished with a top-five park-adjusted FIP. Corbin wound up with a lower FIP- than Max Scherzer, if you can believe it. So much of the difference came down to his newfound dominance of righties. His K-BB% against righties two years back was 11%. This past year, he got up to 25%. That’s a hell of a mark for a southpaw.

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