I’m going to remind you that, last season, the league-average catcher posted an 84 wRC+. The league-average position player posted a 100 wRC+. By definition, it is always 100. Catchers, by and large, cannot hit. Robinson Chirinos hit pretty well as the Rangers’ regular catcher, notching a 103 wRC+ in his age-34 season. It was his fourth straight year of quality hitting, in a career-high amount of playing time. So it was surprising when the Rangers declined to pick up Chirinos’ $4.5-million option for next year. The Rangers aren’t going anywhere, so it hardly matters in the grand scheme of things, but Chirinos was more good than bad, and $4.5 million isn’t much.

Chirinos now has found a new home, and he’s remaining in Texas. The Astros have signed him to a one-year deal, and although I don’t know the terms, let’s assume it’s around $4 – 5 million. The exciting thing for the Astros is that Chirinos makes them better. What’s less exciting is that Chirinos isn’t J.T. Realmuto.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners just finished trading Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets, but the club doesn’t appear to be done. Jerry Dipoto is never done. Ken Rosenthal has reported that shortstop Jean Segura could be the next Mariner to move, with the Phillies engaged as the trade partner. Former top-10 prospect J.P. Crawford is potentially part of the return. Bob Nightengale reported a deal had been agreed to involving at least those two players, while Jon Morosi indicated the deal was complete pending physicals, with Segura expected to waive his no-trade clause. And Bob Nightengale has further reported that Carlos Santana will join Crawford in Seattle, with other major leaguers and a prospect also involved.

While we don’t yet know all the players involved, the framework for the trade is an interesting one. Jean Segura headlined the Angels half of a trade that sent Zack Greinke from Milwaukee to Los Angeles more than six years ago. By the following All-Star Break, Segura looked like a star, with a 133 wRC+ and four wins in the first half of the season. He spent the next two and a half seasons as a replacement-level player, a period that included the tragic loss of his 9-month-old son in the middle of the 2014 season. Whether Segura just needed a change of scenery or more time to develop as a a player and a person, a trade to Arizona that sent Chase Anderson and Isan Diaz to Milwaukee led to Segura’s breakout 2016 campaign.

The Diamondbacks, in need of pitching, traded Segura and Mitch Haniger to Seattle for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. At the time of the trade, both Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan presciently focused on Haniger, but Segura has been a good player in two seasons with the Mariners and earned a five-year, $70 million contract extension in 2017. He has $58 million left on the deal that runs through 2022 and includes a $17 million option for 2023. He’s a roughly average defensive shortstop with an above average hitting line predicated on putting the ball in play. At 29 years old next year, he’d likely be the third-best position player on the market this winter if he hadn’t signed his extension, and would be looking at anywhere from $60 to $90 million in free agent guarantees. His contract is a fair value, but does rebuilding Seattle little good.

Heading into 2017, J.P. Crawford was one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. A disastrous first month of the season was balanced by a very good summer, and he put up a 114 wRC+ over the remainder of the season before receiving a call-up. The uneven season moved Crawford down a little on the prospect ranks, but the Phillies still saw him as the shortstop of the future and traded Freddy Galvis. A strained right forearm and fractured left hand caused two month-long disabled list trips and stunted Crawford’s season. He ended up with just 138 plate appearances and too many strikeouts, though he still showed a little pop and a solid walk rate. The Phillies want to contend now and are opting for proven performance over potential. With Seattle in the exact opposite position, they can take time to see if the soon-to-be 24-year-old can live up to his lofty prospect status. Crawford doesn’t add to the Mariners growing list of solid prospects, but he does add another young player with the potential to help the team contend down the line.

What this does for the Phillies’ potential pursuit of Manny Machado is anyone’s guess, but Bob Nightengale is reporting they aren’t out on anyone yet after this potential move. We’ll have a full post if or when the deal goes final.

There has been a fair bit of speculation in the last few days that the Mariners are preparing to move Robinson Cano to the Mets. Last night, most people went to bed expecting an announcement at some point today. Joel Sherman called the deal “near certain” to get done. Here’s his reported potential trade.

Mets Receive:

• Robinson Cano
• Edwin Diaz
• Some Cash

Mariners Receive:

• Jay Bruce
• Anthony Swarzak
• Jarred Kelenic
• Justin Dunn
• Gerson Bautista

On Tuesday, when I engaged in my own speculation and assessed Cano’s current trade value, I discussed how a deal with the Mets might look.

The reported potential framework of a deal involving Cano and $50 million going to the Mets comes close value-wise. The Mets are said to be trying to include Jay Bruce or receive Edwin Diaz or Mitch Haniger. There is a chance Cano could be packaged with Diaz or Haniger for some prospect return, but absent that, those two – particularly Haniger – don’t make sense to include as the Mariners try to rebuild; using those pieces to acquire talent for the Mariners next run at contention would seem to be a far better option than simply having to eat less money. As for Bruce and the $29 million owed to him over the next two seasons, that would likely need to come out of the money the Mariners are paying. Cano plus $30 million for Bruce is a deal that could make sense for both clubs. If the Mets were to insist on Diaz (the more likely supplemental piece to move) in the trade, New York would need to add prospects to the deal, essentially combining two separate trades into one.

Given what we know at this moment, separating this trade into two deals makes sense, so long as the rest of the money sent over to the Mariners is in the $20 million range. The first involves the Mets receiving Cano and whatever the Mariners don’t pick up of the $120 million he is due over the next five years. In turn, they move two contracts they no longer want. Anthony Swarzak is owed $8 million next season after a below replacement-level 2018 and Jay Bruce, who has been a replacement-level player since 2014 (with his pre-free agency 2017 the lone exception), is due $29 million. The Mariners sending somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 to $8 million annually from 2021 to 2023 would make this is a pretty reasonable deal for both sides, though it does lead to some questions about the Mets’ intentions, given both the other ways the club might have spent the money due to Cano and the fact that this trade is roughly salary neutral for the 2019 season, meaning that the Mets haven’t actually spent any more money yet.

Would they have been better off making the same salary commitment to A.J. Pollock, then signing a reasonably priced closer like David Robertson and keeping two of their best prospects? That’s the sort of question that comes with moves made by the Mets organization. Perhaps the club will now spend more money given that they’ve made two solid additions to the roster without adding any salary this season. According to Kiley McDaniel, the plan is to trade Noah Syndergaard — presumably to fill other holes cheaply — and then sign a free agent pitcher. That certainly doesn’t sound like a team getting ready to bust out after years of spending below their market.

As for second part, and arguably the more important part, of the trade, we see an elite reliever with four years of team control and a minimum salary in 2019 moved for a back-end top-100 prospect in first round pick Kelenic, a top-200 prospect in Justin Dunn, and a fungible reliever. The Mariners expressed resistance to the idea of trading Diaz earlier this offseason, but this is the sort of deal a rebuilding team should make given the lack of value their own team would receive on the mound in a losing season, and their need to replenish a depleted farm system.

This deal isn’t final yet. Will Trader Jerry continue his work on the farm? Will Brodie and Robbie reunite under the lights of the big city? Stay Tuned. We’ll have full trade analysis when the deal becomes official.

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Data Engineer

Overview
The Data Engineer will work closely with the Data Architect and the Baseball Systems team to maintain, enhance, and extend the Brewers data pipelines. You will be responsible for collecting and transforming data from various sources as well as preparing and distributing data for consumption by the department’s systems and analysts. The ideal candidate is an experienced data pipeline builder who excels at automating and optimizing data systems, with a strong preference for cloud experience.

Responsibilities
Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

• Create, maintain and optimize data ETL pipelines
• Document, troubleshoot, and resolve issues with data processes
• Collaborate with the development and research teams
• Extend the Brewers AWS cloud platform initiative
• Identify, design, and implement internal process improvements
• Work with stakeholders to utilize data to create innovative solutions to baseball operations problems
• Prepare data sets for processing and research

Qualifications
To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

• Experience with programming languages such as Python, Java, C#
• Experience working with relational databases such as SQL Server and PostgreSQL
• Experience with SQL, including writing and maintaining queries
• Experience with SDLC, especially Agile or Kanban concepts
• Experience with source control and issue management, such as JIRA, Bitbucket, Github or similar
• Familiarity with advanced statistical baseball concepts, including advanced statistics and player evaluation metrics

Preferred skills
The skills listed below will help an individual perform the job, however they are not all required.

• Experience building visualizations with tools such as D3.js or similar
• Experience with data analysis tools including Tableau, Chartio or similar
• Experience with cloud services including AWS, Azure, Google Cloud or similar
• Experience with DevOps concepts such as Continuous Integration and Continuous Deployment, using TeamCity, Jenkins or similar
• Experience with job orchestration tools such as Airflow, Luigi, Hangfire or similar
• Experience with Docker or other containerization technologies
• Familiarity with Linux and non-Windows operating systems

Education and/or Experience
Bachelor’s degree (B. A.) in Computer Science, Information Systems, or related field from four-year college or university; and one to three years related experience and/or training; or equivalent combination of education and experience.

Other Skills and Abilities
Capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends when necessary.

Language Skills
Ability to read and comprehend simple instructions, short correspondence, and memos. Ability to effectively present information in one-on-one and small group situations to department members and non-technical baseball operations staff.

Mathematical Skills
Ability to add, subtract, multiply, and divide in all units of measure, using whole numbers, common fractions, and decimals. Ability to compute rate, ratio, and percent and to draw and interpret bar graphs.

Reasoning Ability
Ability to define problems, collect data, establish facts, and draw valid conclusions. Ability to apply common sense understanding to carry out detailed but uninvolved written or oral instructions. Ability to deal with problems involving a few concrete variables in standardized situations.

Work Hours
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

To Apply
To apply, please visit this site to complete an application.

Position: Intern, Baseball Research and Development

Summary
The Milwaukee Brewers are currently seeking an Intern in the Baseball Research and Development Department. The Intern will work with the Baseball R&D, Baseball Systems departments and the entire Baseball Operations Department to deliver research and tools to improve decision making. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter, and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following.
Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

• Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs.
• Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.
• Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers.
• Continually survey latest analytical methods and advancements in Baseball Research to apply cutting edge methods and data to problems.
• Understand current decision processes and information systems and offer enhancements and improvements.
• Ad-hoc requests for reports, visualizations and research projects during the year.

Qualifications
To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

• Understanding of basic statistical modeling techniques, including, but not limited to, linear regression, logistic regressions, machine learning, etc.
• Proficiency with an analytical software platform required (for example R or Mathematica).
• Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required.
• Proficiency with data scripting language or ETL environment (Python, PERL, SSIS, etc.) desired.

Education and/or Experience
Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.

Computer Skills
To perform the job successfully, an individual should have knowledge of Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer.

Language Skills
Ability to read, analyze, and interpret general business periodicals, professional journals, technical procedures, or governmental regulations. Ability to write reports, business correspondence, and procedure manuals. Ability to effectively present information and respond to questions from groups of managers, clients, customers, and the general public.

Mathematical Skills
Ability to apply advanced mathematical concepts such as exponents, logarithms, quadratic equations, and permutations. Ability to apply mathematical operations to such tasks as frequency distribution, determination of test reliability and validity, analysis of variance, correlation techniques, sampling theory, and factor analysis.

Reasoning Ability
Ability to define problems, collect data, establish facts, and draw valid conclusions. Ability to interpret an extensive variety of technical instructions in mathematical or diagram form and deal with several abstract and concrete variables.

Work Hours
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

To Apply
To apply, please visit this site to complete an application.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Brewers.

I’m one week into my JAWS-flavored profiles of the 35 candidates on the BBWAA’s 2019 Hall of Fame ballot, and figured it would be worth laying out a tentative schedule for the series as well as providing a clearinghouse for a bit of business, including a very cool new feature that was put together by developer Sean Dolinar. That’s the sexy stuff, so let’s get to it first.

In the spirit of what we do with our annual free agent contract crowdsourcing, FanGraphs invites registered users to fill out their own virtual Hall of Fame ballots. You must be signed in to vote, and you may only vote once. To replicate the actual voting process, you may vote for anywhere from zero to 10 players; ballots with more than 10 won’t be counted. You may change your ballot until the deadline, which is December 31, 2018, the same as that of the actual BBWAA voters, who have to schlep their paper ballot to the mailbox.

The ballot is here and contains all 35 candidates. There are no write-ins, for those of you fixated on Pete Rose. I’ll write up the crowdsourcing results sometime in early January, when we’re all jonesing for Hall news in advance of the announcement of the official results on January 22.

As for the schedule, here it is below, broken into five-day weeks, as we’re not planning to publish these on weekends. Please keep in mind that the schedule is tentative and subject to change, particularly when it comes to the new profiles (denoted with asterisks), which take time to do justice. There’s also the chance that I’ll want to weigh in on current events, which is still part of my job here (hence the all-rerun week coinciding with the Winter Meetings).

November
Nov. 26: Mariano Rivera*
Nov. 27: Edgar Martinez
Nov. 28: Mike Mussina
Nov. 29: Roy Halladay*
Nov. 30: Larry Walker

December
Dec. 3: Scott Rolen
Dec. 4: Todd Helton*
Dec. 5: Andruw Jones
Dec. 6: Omar Vizquel
Dec. 7: Gary Shefield

Dec. 10: Manny Ramirez
Dec. 11: Fred McGriff
Dec. 12: Winter Meetings Travel Hell
Dec. 13: Lance Berkman*
Dec. 14: Jeff Kent

Dec. 17: Andy Pettitte*
Dec. 18: Roger Clemens
Dec. 19: Barry Bonds
Dec. 20: Roy Oswalt*
Dec. 21: Billy Wagner

Dec. 24: Happy holidays
Dec. 25: Happy birthday to me (yes, really), Merry Xmas to those celebrating.
Dec. 26: Curt Schilling
Dec. 27: Sammy Sosa
Dec. 28: One-and-Dones, Part 1

Dec. 31: My Virtual Ballot

January
Jan. 1: Happy New Year
Jan. 2: One-and-Dones, Part 2
Jan. 3: One-and-Dones, Part 3

As for those One-and-Dones — the candidates with no real shot at election or even making it to next year’s ballot — since I started the JAWS project with the 2004 ballot, I’ve covered every single BBWAA candidate, at least in brief, and I’m not about to miss any now. It used to be that I wrote up every candidate within 20 JAWS points of the standard, but in recent years I’ve made exceptions due to scheduling, and this year is tight enough that I may have to do so again.

Finally, some thanks are due. First, to my former colleagues at Sports Illustrated — namely SI editorial director Chris Stone, assistant managing editor Stefanie Kaufman, and SI.com managing editor Ryan Hunt — who worked with us to find a satisfactory solution that allowed me to continue revising profiles written during my Sports Illustrated tenure (they still own the copyright). Second, to the aforementioned Mr. Dolinar for putting together the crowdsource ballot and carving out some real estate for Hall stuff on the FanGraphs home page, and David Appelman for accommodating all of this. And finally, to our new managing editor Meg Rowley, who’s charged with the task of wrangling this series of epic posts while dealing with my excessive quantity of em-dashes, liberal use of semicolons, and wavering commitment to serial commas. Cheers all around!

Position: Baseball Operations Fellow

Description:
The Indians Fellowship program is designed to accelerate the pace of development and impact for high-potential candidates. Fellowship roles are focused on complex challenges, developing new approaches, tools and techniques to meaningfully drive the organization forward.

The Cleveland Indians are seeking multiple Fellows to join their Baseball Operations department. Each Fellow will work full-time with one of the Indians’ minor league affiliates and report to both the Player Development and Baseball Operations departments. Fellows will operate as an extension of the front office staff and be a resource for both players and coaches. Fellows will be expected to manage the collection of multiple data streams. Fellows will gain exposure across multiple departments and have access to and be encouraged to use a suite of internal, proprietary resources.

The ideal candidate will be curious, creative, open-minded, and excited to work in a collaborative environment. The candidate will have exceptional interpersonal skills and the ability to present complex topics to a wide range of audiences. They will take the initiative to perform research in the areas of their choosing that advances the Indians’ player development procedures and philosophies.

Responsibilities:

Baseball Technology:

• Operate bat/ball tracking technology and other sports science technology.
• Manage pre-game and in-game video process.
• Manage the corresponding data and video collection process and assist with interpretation.

Research and Development:

• Collaborate with coaching staff and player development staff to monitor player goals and player progress.
• Perform ad hoc research and analysis, both at the request of staff and independently.
• Communicate findings and insights to Minor League Coaches, Players, and Player Development and Baseball Operations Department.

Coaching Staff Support:

• Assist Minor League field staff with pre-game on-field activities.
• Assist Minor League field staff with Advance Scouting process.
• Assist affiliate staff with various administrative tasks.

Education and Experience Requirements:

• Bachelor’s degree
• Demonstrated passion for at least one of baseball analytics, sports science, hitting or pitching analysis and/or biomechanics, strength and conditioning, motor learning, or other baseball related field.
• Conversational Spanish or better a plus

Job Requirements:

• Experience with SQL and statistical software (i.e. R, Python, Stata, SAS) a plus.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
• Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics and publicly available research.
• Proficiency with Microsoft Office.
• This position will be based at an affiliate and will include travel to away games.

Standard Requirements:

• Reads, speaks, comprehends and communicates English effectively in all communications.
• Represents the Cleveland Indians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
• Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
• Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
• Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
• Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
• Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
• Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
• Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
• Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25 lbs.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application found here.

These positions are paid.

Position: San Diego Padres Baseball Research and Development Analyst and Intern

Location: San Diego, California

Description:
The Padres are looking to grow their Research and Development group by adding an Analyst and Intern who have a passion for baseball and winning through data-driven decision making to their team. Through both collaborative and individual work, members of their team will impact every part of the R&D process: idea and question generation, data exploration and analysis, development of decision making tools utilizing analyses, and communication of results to decision makers and other staff. Ideal candidates are those that are excited to challenge the status quo, improve how the Padres make decisions, and contribute to the continual development of the department.

Responsibilities:

• Develop statistical models and perform general quantitative analysis dealing with player valuation, player development, and strategic decision making.
• Collaborate with other members of the baseball operations department in the development process.
• Investigate ad hoc research projects as requested.
• Effectively present completed projects and communicate new insights to decision makers and other staff.
• Maintain a knowledge of the latest data analysis techniques and data sources to aid in the continual development of the department.

Qualifications:

• Intern: Bachelor’s degree (BA) in a job related area or currently enrolled in a Bachelor’s degree program. Strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, operations research, engineering, or physics.
• Analyst: Bachelor’s degree (BA) in a job related area or 2+ years of related work experience.
• Some experience with computer programming. Experience with R, Python, SQL, and Stan preferred.
• Demonstrated ability to solve problems in a data-driven way.
• Creativity to brainstorm new avenues of research for the department.
• Strong work ethic and attention to detail with the ability to balance multiple projects.
• Passion for baseball and familiarity with current baseball research.
• Comfortability with and ability to effectively communicate technical concepts to a non-technical audience.
• Ability to work evening/weekend/holiday hours.
• Consistent, punctual and regular attendance.
• Professional image and demeanor.
• Excellent time management, interpersonal, verbal and written communications, decision-making, and organization skills.
• Minimum physical requirements: able to travel to and gain access to various areas of the ballpark for prolonged periods of time during games and events; able to lift and transport up to 25 pounds.

To Apply:
To apply, please send an email to BBOpsJobs@Padres.com with the subject “R&D Positions” and include a resume, an unofficial transcript (if you were enrolled in a college degree program within the last three years), and answers to the following questions:

• When would you be available to start?
• Are you planning to attend the 2018 Winter Meetings?
• Where did you learn about this opportunity?
• What is a project you believe would add substantial value to a baseball team? Please describe the project and outline the steps you would take to complete it.

The San Diego Padres are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Associate, Baseball Operations

Department: Baseball Operations

Locations: Flushing, NY; Syracuse, NY; Binghamton, NY; Port St. Lucie, FL; Columbia, SC.

Summary:
The New York Mets are seeking individuals to work in Baseball Operations, both in Flushing at the major league level and at their minor league affiliates. This is an entry-level, yearly position intended to gain exposure to a variety of responsibilities within Baseball Operations. Location will be determined based off fit. Applicants should be available to start in January.

Responsibilities:

• Compile advance scouting reports.
• Assist the amateur scouting department with information gathering in preparation for the Rule 4 Draft.
• Support players and coaching staff with video and player-tracking technology.
• Assist front office with administrative needs.
• Data collection and entry.
• Those at the minor league affiliate level will travel with the club on all road trips, filming and charting games, and operating the Trackman radar while the club is at home.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree.
• Familiarity with baseball concepts, strategy, rules, recent developments, etc.
• Confidence in verbal communication skills with front office, coaching staff, and players.
• Proficient with Microsoft Office.
• Comfortable learning and operating new technologies.
• Organized, attentive, and accountable.
• Available to start in January.

To Apply:
Interested candidates should apply using this Google form with a resume by November 30, 2018.

Position: Associate, Baseball Research & Development

Department: Baseball Operations

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY

Summary:
The New York Mets are seeking individuals with a background in data analysis to work with the club’s Research and Development team. This is an entry-level, yearly position in which associates will analyze baseball data and use their findings to provide insight within the different areas of Baseball Operations. These may include player development, amateur and international scouting, and major league advance scouting. Applicants should be available to start in January.

Responsibilities:

• Conduct research in the field of baseball analytics and communicate insights with others in Baseball Operations department.
• Research, develop, and test predictive models to support Baseball Operations decision-making (i.e., player evaluation, roster construction, player development, in-game strategy).
• Create data visualizations that integrate into Baseball Operations web application.
• Collect and manage large data sets. This may involve writing scripts for automation as well as manual data entry.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree or equivalent experience in Statistics, Data Science, Mathematics, Physics, Computer Science, or similar quantitative field.
• Strong experience querying and managing data with SQL.
• Demonstrated experience using statistical tools and packages in R or Python.
• Familiarity with baseball specific datasets (i.e., Trackman, Statcast, PITCHf/x) and knowledge of current baseball research.
• Preference for candidates who have demonstrated experience building web applications in Python, Java, PHP, Javascript, etc. Please provide a link to the application and/or codebase (Github) if possible.
• Available to start in January.

To Apply:
Interested candidates should apply using this Google form with a resume and a sample of a past research project, preferably in sports analytics, by November 30, 2018.

Many of you are home, or traveling home, for the Thanksgiving holiday. Not only aren’t you in the mood to read about baseball — I bet you’re especially not in the mood to read about Derek Dietrich, who the Marlins designated for assignment on Tuesday. I’m not really in the mood to linger on Derek Dietrich, myself, which is why I’m going to do this fast. Won’t waste your time. I’ll get to the point and leave you alone.

Dietrich is a useful player. He’s 29 years old, and he has a career wRC+ of 109. He can play a lot of positions, albeit none of them all that well. Hidden in the numbers, however, is that Dietrich has a specialty. Now, whenever anyone talks about players getting hit by a lot of pitches, the name that ought to come to mind is Brandon Guyer. We’ve written about Guyer at FanGraphs before, and indeed, if you set a low enough minimum, Guyer is easily the all-time leader in HBP rate. But Guyer has 1,487 big-league plate appearances. What if you set the minimum at, say, 1,500?

Given that cutoff, here are the highest career HBP rates since the turn of the last century:

Dietrich has a lower rate than Guyer, but he’s also played a lot more than Guyer. Dietrich’s the all-time leader with a 1,500 PA cutoff. He’s the all-time leader with a 2,000 PA cutoff. Yes, it’s true that Guyer is more anomalous, but Dietrich is anomalous as well. As these things go, that’s a pretty healthy lead Dietrich has over second place.

Dietrich’s the all-time leader, maybe with a minimum-related asterisk, but all rate-stat leaderboards come with some kind of minimum, and they’re always arbitrary. So I want to give Dietrich his moment in the sun, in what’s otherwise probably a pretty crappy week for him. Dietrich has been hit by 93 pitches. He’s been hit by 13 pitches in an 0-and-2 count. He’s been hit by 39 pitches with the pitcher ahead. He’s been hit by seven pitches by Tanner Roark.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant, here are all the pitches that hit Dietrich somewhere, or were at least judged to have done so:

Here’s that weird low one over the plate:

Here’s one close to the strike zone:

Here’s another one close to the strike zone:

Here’s one I just think is kind of quirky:

Here’s the one time he’s been hit with the bases loaded:

Here’s the one worth the most positive win probability added:

And here’s the one that happened in the lowest-leverage situation:

At least in terms of WPA, Dietrich’s career hit-by-pitches have been worth almost a combined three wins. Dietrich has been hit by 93 pitches while drawing just 144 walks — a dozen of which have been intentional. Dietrich hasn’t exactly built a career around getting hit by the baseball, but getting hit by the baseball has given his career a jolt, and it’s a career that’s going to continue, despite all of the aches and pains. Every year, Derek Dietrich feels a lot of pain in his legs and his elbow. And, every year, for pitchers facing Derek Dietrich, he is a pain in the ass.

The headliner in the James Paxton deal is LHP Justus Sheffield. He’s been a top prospect for so long that it’s easy to find updated reports on him and understand where he falls in the prospects landscape. The short version is that he has an above-average-to-plus four-pitch mix, but his command ranges from average to below average, so he could still fit in a number of roles in the big leagues, ranging from multi-inning relief power arm to mid-rotation starter.

The more intriguing pieces of this deal are the other two names, RHP Erik Swanson and CF Dom Thompson-Williams. Neither were on the year-end version of THE BOARD, but both were on our radar; we intentionally didn’t comb through every 40 FV candidate in the in-season update since that’s what we focus on in the winter.

If we were doing the Mariners list today, both would be 40 FVs; they’re good examples of guys who sneak up on you during the season and in whom you have greater confidence moving up once the season ends. Swanson works 92-94 with a rising four-seamer, hitting 98 mph at times with some deception and life, and backs it up with a solid average slider and advanced feel for how to use both pitches in tandem. He could be something like a back-end starter who mostly uses two pitches, but he’s more likely to be the 5th-7th best starting option for a contender, and fits most comfortably as a David Phelps-type multi-inning fireman who can also do the job of long relief and spot-starting. There’s upside as a 50 FV here (4th starter or setup guy) but he’s more likely to be a 45 FV in the big leagues as a useful utility-type arm, so a 40+ or 40 FV would be appropriate.

Thompson-Williams is a sneaky athlete who’s a solid average runner with an average arm that some think can play a solid center field, but that most think is a fourth outfielder-type who can play all three spots. He has plus raw power and some feel to hit, so there’s low-end everyday upside if things continue to come together at the plate as they did in 2018. But he was 23 years old in High-A, so he’ll need to move quickly to be likely to reach that upside. More likely, Thompson-Williams is a useful bench option as a platoon at multiple spots or as a player who can provide some thump off the bench. Given his shorter track record and age, that’s a 40 FV for now with a chance to turn into a 45 FV with more performance, certainty, and proximity to the majors.

I’ve been asked a few times where these prospects fall on the dollar scale of our new prospect valuation metrics. Sheffield likely won’t rank exactly 54th on our next Top 100 in January, but the $29 million figure is about right. Swanson and Thompson-Williams combine for about $5 million more. Paxton is due in the $20-$25 million range for his next two years via arbitration while projected–using the same $9 million per WAR figure that generated the prospect values–to be worth somewhere around $60-$69 million in that span. So the Mariners receive around $35 million in prospect value, and send $35-$50 million of value back, depending on where Paxton ends up in his range. That’s within the margin for error, but is a bit lighter than expected for a Paxton package given the wide interest. That said, this trade appears to bring the Mariners out of the cellar of our first farm system rankings.