Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/9/20

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, sorry for the delay, which will extend just a few more minutes. I just filed a piece on the Astros’ rotation question marks behind Justin Verlander, who left yesterday’s start with a triceps complaint. Let me get situated and I’ll begin tackling the questions.

Jay Jaffe: OK, i’m back. White knuckle Monday morning spilling into afternoon, but lunch (sushi) is on the way and so are some answers.

Dave: Congrats on your promotion to EIC! What big, sweeping changes will rock the site under your rule?

Jay Jaffe: LOL I was misidentified as the EIC this morning in a tweet promoting my appearance on Chicago’s 670 The Score, but co-host Connor McKnight set the record straight:

Dave Kingman: Are you worried about Verlander (scale of 1-10)?

Jay Jaffe: i’d say maybe 3-4 on a scale of 10. The comparison has been made to his 2015 absence, which lasted into mid-June, but the Tigers appear to have mishandled the initial diagnosis and he also strained a lat during rehab. If I’m throwing out a wild guess before the MRI results come in, I think this points to him starting the season on the injured list but returning by mid- to late April.

Jay Jaffe: I caution you that I’m not a doctor, and not only did NOT spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express but haven’t been sleeping especially well due to some upper back trouble lately.

Green Gambit: Will Yasiel Puig be on a major league roster on Opening Day?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say that we’re rapidly approaching the point at which even if he were signed today, unless he’s in tip-top shape he probably begins the year in extended spring training working towards a mid-April debut.

The Jay Strain: would you be in favor of a shorter season to keep players healthier?

Jay Jaffe: Yes but not drastically. For the sake of historical continuity, I’d like to see a return to 154-game schedules. That comes out to an extra day or two off every month, which wouldn’t be drastic but would break up some of those long road trips or provide an off day after a coast-to-coast flight.

branik best: I’ve been meaning to ask this question since Marvin Miller was voted into the HoF and can now thank the Coronavirus (allowing me to WFH) since I’m available when you’re chatting.  Will we ever see a player agent in the Hall of Fame?  Will the first be Scott Boras?

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical. The first hurdle is that he has to get on the ballot, and it’s not at all clear how receptive the BBWAA elders who assemble it, or the Hall (who approves it) are to what would be a first-of-its-kind candidacy. And then, given how long it took the players to get their shit together regarding Miller, I can’t see them organized enough to elect Boras, particularly when you can expect the panel’s team execs to uniformly vote against him, as with Miller.

Jerry Mumphrey: What is mlb doing to prepare for the corona virus (besides boycotting Mexican beer)?

Jay Jaffe: Over the weekend MLB issued a statement

Additionally, the league is encouraging teams and players to give out pre-autographed stuff while limiting contact with autograph-seeking fans https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/03/07/mlb-coronavirus-a…

it doesn’t sound as though the league expects the start of the season to be delayed, as is the case with the NPB and KBO, but the first league-wide conference call on the matter is scheduled for today, and we could see additional information about MLB’s plan after that.

Let’s fix the Giants: Do you think the Giants could use Samardzja or Belt in a Clint Frazier deal? What about paying Lowrie or Familia’s contract for Dominic Smith?

Jay Jaffe: Any thought of trading Frazier is probably on hold given the injuries of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, not to mention Aaron Hicks. Plsu, between Luke Voit, Mike Ford, and Miguel Andujar, the Yankees are plenty deep at first base so I don’t see Belt as being a target for them, and I doubt they have interest in Smarj even given their rotation hits, as they’re pretty high on their internal depth.

I could see Lowrie’s contract being a poison pill as part of a Smith trade, but I don’t really see a fit with the Giants given the presence of Pete Alonso. Samardzija might make some sense as a back rotation option in the event of a longer injury, but I think the team views Porcello/Matz/Wacha as enough to get by for the final two spots in the event of normal aches and pains

Jay Jaffe: OK my Verlander piece is out https://blogs.fangraphs.com/verlanders-triceps-injury-spotlights-quest… and will be updated later today if there’s news regarding his MRI

Jay Jaffe: Lunch has arrived and with it, a reminder of how much harder it is to eat sushi at a keyboard rather than a table. Bear with me…

Tyler: Over/under 145 innings for McCullers this year?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say that’s right around where the O/U should be set. We have him at 139 in our Depth Charts, and as noted in today’s piece, that would be his MLB high. So maybe take the under but don’t bet the baby’s tuition fund on it

128OZ: Zac Gallen- future ace or one hit wonder? Probably somewhere between? Feel like his return was ultra light

Jay Jaffe: he looks very much like a midrotation guy right now. maybe more if he can retain last year’s gain in swinging strikes, as Jake Mailhot wrote recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/there-are-some-diamonds-at-the-back-of-ari…

Gold Dust: Do you see Rays’ brass bucking tradition and calling up Wander Franco in August/September? Maybe they’ll try to make an impression on future Montreal fan-base, or maybe they ink him to a long-term deal like what Atlanta did with Acuna?

Jay Jaffe: i’d be very surprised given that he topped out in High-A last year. The consensus among prospect hounds is a 2021 ETA, and even that is just his age-20 season

Daniel: Who is someone we can watch for on the Orioles?

Jay Jaffe: Besides the buzzards circling over Camden Yards? I’d go with Trey Mancini, John Means, and Hunter Harvey. And of course whatever Chris Davis does after two seasons totaling -4.5 WAR will be interesting, but perhaps watchable only through your fingers as they shield your eyes [EDIT: I had not seen the news about Mancini’s health scare at the time of this chat, and my answer was not meant to make light of his situation. Wishing him a return to full health here.]

Jake M: Do you think Reynaldo Lopez has some upside he can tap into this season or do you think he will probably remain a competent if not very efficient innings eater?(not that that is a bad thing.)

Jay Jaffe: I think that just about every White Sox pitcher stands to gain significantly via the arrival of Yasmani Grandal. Via Baseball Prospectus’ framing stats, the Sox were the majors’ second-worst team in framing, with James McCann and Welington Castillo both well in the red; meanwhile, Grandal was second in framing runs. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2801188

Jay Jaffe: BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS

Jay Jaffe: “mild lat strain” for Verlander

Jay Jaffe: There’s no timetable yet for his return

colerebby: Hey Jay, what do you think about Austin Riley and his chances of being the everday 3B to start the year?

Jay Jaffe: We have Johan Camargo ahead of him on the Depth Chats, and between his offseason knee surgery and his late-season slump after that auspicious beginning, it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts the year in the minors or as a bench piece rather than the starter out of the gate.

NihilistDuda: Every effin year, I have some sort of optimism about my Mets. Evry effin year (mostly) they roundly disappoint. Yet, somehow, this year seems different. Less bs with hiding injuries. Thoughts on whether Brodie has brought some legitimacy to this franchise and whether you have some optimism in store for 2020 (when you rightfully have blistered the club in previous years)? Spring training springs eternal….

Jay Jaffe: I wrote about the Mets last week in the context of their mismatched outfield https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mets-have-a-mismatched-outfield-once-a…

Jay Jaffe: I think they have the pieces to contend for a playoff spot so long as deGrom and Syndergaard remain healthy (knock on wood), but their roster makeup concerns me, particularly the defense in the outfield — and this is the second year in a row where the oddball collection of parts has been an issue. That’s on BVW to remedy, and suffice it to say i’m not yet convinced he’s very good at that aspect. Still, it’s enough talent to keep the team interesting, and possibly to even win the division if most things go right.

Luis or Kyle: Luis Robert or Kyle Tucker ?

Jay Jaffe: Tucker has really struggled in his MLB exposure (all of 144 PA) and while I’m not ready to write him off yet, I like Roberts’ tools and ability to play center field better

Dave: Does Newcomb earn and hold onto a spot in Atlanta’s rotation?

Jay Jaffe: I think Cole Hamels’ injury makes it likely he starts the year in the rotation, which I wrote about last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cole-hamels-cranky-shoulder-will-test-brav…) but it probably comes down to how well Felix Hernandez pitches from there. If Hernandez is done, then yeah, Newcomb is probably a fixture provided he’s pitching well. If the team needs short-term flexibility, he may need to go to the bullpen.

Dave: I’ve always been a proponent of taking away anonymity from HoF voters – would really love to know who didn’t vote for the likes of Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Griffey, etc. What are your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: I’m on record as favoring full transparency.

Jay Jaffe: I think voters should be accountable for their choices but at the same time I’d like if if interested bystanders take the volume of their responses down a notch or two when they disagree. Nobody is ever going to get fired by a publication for having an outlying HOF vote, for one thing.

Dave: As of right now, are you planning to change any of your early-season in-person baseball plans?

Jay Jaffe: Well, the FanGraphs staff trip to Arizona, which was supposed to begin on Wednesday and run through the weekend, was banged, and so the 2-3 spring games I was going to see are now gonna happen without me. I tend not to get up to the ballpark too often in April anyway, and while I’m more motivated to this year from a reporting standpoint, I’ll take my cues from the teams and the daily media as to how to proceed.

Tyler Beigle: Will Ohtani live up to his 70 FV grade? Do you expect a good season for him in 2020?

Jay Jaffe: By definition (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/) a 70 FV prospect is a guy projected to produce an average of 9.5 to 12.5 WAR (depending upon whether he’s a pitcher or hitter) over the course of his control years. Ohtani produced 3.8 WAR as a rookie between pitching and hitting, and 1.8 last year just as a hitter, so yeah, I think he’s got a very good shot at living up to that so long as he doesn’t suffer a major injury — I think even the bat gets him there if he were forced to give up pitching, though I’m glad that’s not the case yet.

Green Gambit: What is the biggest x-factor on the path to a San Diego Padre wild card berth?

Jay Jaffe: Getting something besides replacement level work from Hosmer and Myers (whose depth charts estimates only forecast a combined 1.2 WAR, which won’t cut it) and keeping the young arms healthy.

CubFan: With today’s news concerning Verlander’s lat strain you betting he ends up on the IL to start the year? He had a similar issue in 2015.

Jay Jaffe: Yes. As I said in the article, any shutdown pretty much guarantees he starts the year on the IL, and right now he has no timetable.

Sammy Sosa: The Mets get a lot of grief for paying Bobby Bonilla every year but deferred money is very common these days and smart teams do it all the time. Was it really a bad idea at the time?

Jay Jaffe: No. Explained here https://www.businessinsider.com/mets-bobby-bonilla-deal-smart-2015-7

Justin Zoolander: Should MLB be concerned that park attendance has declined 7% over the last three seasons?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, very much so. The game is awash in media money and so teams are raking it in hand over fist, but they need to do a better job at keeping ticket and concession prices affordable for fans.

Eric: Do you project Yandy Diaz to be in the lineup nearly everyday or to be used in a platoon? The Rays depth seems to hinder his value.

Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll be a regular. He projects as their best third baseman (though the defense is iffy) and makes for a good platoon fit with Choi at first base, where the top alternatives (N. Lowe and Tsutsugo) are lefties.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Its up to you, the Hall puts you in charge, do you include Bonds, Clemens and A-Rod in the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’m an advocate for separating what came before testing and suspension were set in place in 2004 and what came after, and so I’m all in favor of Bonds and Clemens being in the Hall (I’ve included them on my virtual ballots for the past eight years and will continue to do so when I get my real one this winter), and by the same token would NOT include A-Rod under that rule of thumb, at least initially. I won’t rule out the possibility of a performance-only vote at some point, in which case he’d get the nod too, and if it were an all-or-nothing choice (Bonds/Clemens/A-Rod all in or not) I’d go with putting them all in.

Mandated joke: “Well, the FanGraphs staff trip to Arizona, which was supposed to begin on Wednesday and run through the weekend, was banged” (banging scheme!)

Jay Jaffe: (rimshot)

Sanford: You reckon it’s more likely that MLB will play games in stadiums to start the year or that they’ll delay the season entirely?

Jay Jaffe: The former. If they waver from that it’s far more likely to be done via a period of empty stadiums rather than a delayed start to the season.

Joe Poz: Have you been following Posnanski’s top 100 series at the Athletic? (Not to speak of a competitor, I subscribe to both). He might actually finish this time! He’s at 18!

Jay Jaffe: Yes though i can’t keep up with the pace. Really enjoyed his recent pieces on Frank Robinson and Mike Schmidt. Joe’s always worth reading and this stuff is right in my wheelhouse.

Aristides Development: Is Eflin the only one talking about the seams right now? I also happened to hear Jed Hoyer make a comment during a Cubs broadcast on how he thought one flyball would carry further than it did. Have you all been hearing any chatter on the ball so far?

Jay Jaffe: Not a lot. Tanaka said that he thought this ball was more like 2017, softer and with higher seams https://www.nj.com/yankees/2020/02/how-yankees-masahiro-tanaka-feels-a…

King Felix: What kind of year (and/or how many of them) would Felix Hernandez need to salvage his case for the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: From a WAR standpoint, I think he needs to be worth at least another 20 wins, which would push his JAWS to about 54; that’s below the standard (61.5) but 11 out of 15 pitchers within two points of that are enshrined (not including Max Scherzer, who will pitch his way out of that and is headed for eventual enshrinement). From a traditional standpoint, I think getting past 200 wins (he’s at 169) might be enough, and enough of a challenge that it will be rewarded as a comeback narrative.

Jetah Downs: How soon will I make my debut in Fenway?

Jay Jaffe: given that he just grazed Double A last year, I think the 2022 that Eric Longenhagen included in his report is reasonable but I’ve seen 2021 from other sources

Clarke Schmidt: Do I get a nice little opportunity until Paxton returns?

Jay Jaffe: while I’m less skeptical than I was a few weeks ago because he’s had a strong spring, the fact that he’s not on the 40-man roster creates an obstacle that his competition does not have to clear. Likewise, he has just 114 professional innings under his belt. I can see him helping the Yankees this year, particularly with Severino out, but I’d bet that with Montgomery more or less locking down a spot behind Cole, Tanaka, and Happ, it’s either Garcia or Loaisiga who starts the year as the 5, with things rather fluid as Paxton and German return.

Severino to the 60 day!: “the fact that he’s not on the 40-man roster creates an obstacle that his competition does not have to clear”

Jay Jaffe: Good point. That move is inevitable but first dibs on the open slot would go to a third catcher if Sanchez needs to start the year on the IL, though right now his back soreness isn’t a huge concern.

Jay Jaffe: Whew, I went past my time allotment. Thanks for stopping by, and I’ll see you next week!