Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 3/26/19

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone! We’ll get started in a few minutes here. Just need to get a few editorial things sorted. You can blame all the of the baseball teams doing all of the baseball extensions.

Meg Rowley: A minute more. Apologies, apologies.

Meg Rowley: Ok, here I am.

Meg Rowley: Sorry folks, I had to confer with Tech Wizard Sean Dolinar on Matters of Great Import

Lilith: How cool is it that the Reds have a guy that can play both shortstop and catcher on their roster?

Meg Rowley: It is indeed very cool.

Dustin: Do you wear a fake mustache during podcast recordings to try and channel some of that elusive Cistulli mystique?

Meg Rowley: No, I come with a mystique all my own. Also, a catcher’s mask.

Andy: So the Mariners. I think they have a chance to make the playoffs this year via the WC2 spot. What would have to go right for this insane scenario to come to life?

Meg Rowley: All of their pitchers save for Marco and Kikuchi experience a Freaky Friday with better pitchers, and they trick a team into sending them a good catcher, and maybe some other teams’ ballparks catch on fire, or their players decide to become youth pastors?

The “Youths”: Explain to me why Tyler O’Neill shouldn’t be given the lion’s share of starts in right over Fowler. Their respective projections are similar and they seem to be on opposite trajectories.

Meg Rowley: He should, and I would imagine that any prolonged bit of underperformance on Fowler’s part means he likely will.

Crab Army : Hi Meg. Strategically, I think MLBPA can’t be pleased with all these extensions because they are a by-product of weak FA market for guys coming off their service time clocks and they don’t help establish value on the open market. However, guys are still getting paid and I imagine these extensions make the overall compensation argument harder for the MLBPA to make. How do they address this moving forward, other than storming the Winter Palace?

Meg Rowley: The best player in baseball, and perhaps one of the best baseball players of all time, expressed concern over how he would do in the market. There is an argument to be made for most of these deals that they are under market value. Craig Kimbrel is unsigned. And despite what the Blue Jays did, minor leaguers don’t make a living wage. The top of the market isn’t a the only indicator of the market’s overall health.

Zerg: Hi Meg!

Meg Rowley: Hi!

Ryan: Hey Meg, thanks for chatting. Weird quesstion, but do baseball writters that take jobs with teams still maintain their BBWAA membership? Do they still get to vote for awards, etc?

Meg Rowley: I don’t know how it alters things like HOF timelines if you go to a team and then come back, but no, they don’t get to vote for awards as far as I know. That would be a wild conflict of interest.

Hae-Lo Dee: How do you predict the Felix situation ends?

Meg Rowley: Pretty badly. It is clear that there is very little affection between him and the org, or at least parts of it, right now.

Meg Rowley: It bums me out in a pretty profound way. He was and is so important to Mariners fans and it really shouldn’t have gone like this.

!!!: What’s a good way to calm down when you’re stressed at work?

Meg Rowley: I dunno, but when you figure it out, will you tell me?

Meg Rowley: I generally take a short walk to get things moving, or take a moment to text a friend about non-work stuff. Or at least, non-pressing work stuff. Many of my pals are baseball people and figuring out where the work/non-work line is something I think about a lot and that my mother worries about more than somewhat.

Meg Rowley: (sorry this chat is so choppy, we’re having a tech issue)

Bork: Hello, friend!

Meg Rowley: Wow, truly honored, Bork.

Fred: So happy to have you on Effectively Wild.  Given the brain drain to MLB clubs, do you see the influx of talent to high-end baseball coverage (FG, BA, BP, etc.) keeping up with the outflow?

Meg Rowley: I have been thrilled with the work of our new contributors so far, but it is definitely a concern. I think this stuff goes in waves. We just had a big wave work its way out, but folks are emerging and there is a lot of good baseball writing still being done.

Meg Rowley: Folks still love baseball, still love talking about baseball and writing about it, and many who want to work for teams know that one of the best ways to get seen is to write at places like FanGraphs and BP.

YDG: Wake me up on Thursday

Meg Rowley: Don’t add stuff from your to-do list to my to-do list, my to-do list is already too long.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Re: all these extensions, in a vacuum, players trading some expected earnings for guaranteed earnings is fine. Players, team, and fans all win. But the MLBPA has to be pretty upset that they’ve created this system preventing their members from getting “set for life” money for 5-7 years, right? Not to mention all these stars that aren’t going to increase the arbitration standards.

Meg Rowley: the MLPBA didn’t create this system by themselves

Taylor: Indians Dolan about Lindor’s future in Cleveland?

“Enjoy him,” Dolan said. “We control him for three more years. Enjoy him and then we’ll see what happens.”

Meg Rowley: It continues to be irritation and quite illuminating that team execs and owners have taken to saying the quiet part out loud

Bob: Did you get a chance to see the Sea/SD game last night? Thoughts on Paddack?

Meg Rowley: I continue to love the way his fastball works. It doesn’t seem like it should work as well as it does, but it does.

Dan: Some fangraph articles are like here is the conclusion of the 20 hours of research I did or here is what I found from my extensively cultivated contacts. Other are more like here are some thoughts I had over breakfast. What are the hidden things fan graph writers do or is this really a job that’s 100 hours some weeks and ten hours others?

Meg Rowley: Everyone’s process is a little different, and the key is to balance out the stuff that takes forever with the things that can turn around in a day. It can be a tricky thing to gauge but that is what lends some stability to the how much we work question.

bosoxforlife: I hope you have enjoyed being in 1st place for an entire week.

Meg Rowley: This feels unnecessarily aggressive from someone who is presumably a fan of a team that just won a World Series

Extension Man: Will there be a long term impact on the free agent market because of the string of extensions? If so, how will this impact how teams approach roster construction?

Meg Rowley: For sure. The Mariners, for instance, want to supplement a prospect core they think will be good with free agent signing in 2020 or 2021. Those markets look different now than they once did.

Mike G: Please for the love of God stop giggling in the podcasts (and Ben too)

Meg Rowley: No.

FriarFaithful: Will a player ever reach free agency again after seeing what happened this offseason?

Meg Rowley: I have a feeling Mookie is going to want to test the market, as well he should. There are some pitchers come up who are intriguing. It sounds like Lindor will be available, which is pretty goofy. A lot is going to depend on how the next CBA shakes out.

Childish Bambino: True or False: The 2019 NL is the most exciting, unpredictable league ever

Meg Rowley: I don’t know about ever, but it is certainly very intriguing, which, given the state of the AL outside the East, thank goodness.

Mike G: Will you acknowledge the giggling?

Meg Rowley: I, a human person with cohosts and guests I enjoy, do in fact giggle. My family is standing by me, for they are loving heroes who just want me to be happy.

resumeman: During the Japan games, y’all posted the SaberSim DFS projections. However, the page didn’t have the “export data” link that is on the other projection pages and was on that one last year. Is that as intended? Or was it just a one-off for the small list of projected players?

Meg Rowley: Hmmm, that I am unsure of, but I will pass it on to those who would know.

Jason: All day chatting on Thursday??

Meg Rowley: All day, mega chat on Thursday.

Meg Rowley: ALL DAY. Well, ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY.

5 Run Homer: Who, in your estimation, are the most boring teams in baseball this season?

Meg Rowley: The Marlins with a bullet.

Riley: Does Keon Broxton put it together this year or does he continue to be an intriguing toolsy guy that cant get into a lineup?

Meg Rowley: I want it to work out for him. He can be very, very fun. But he can also be quite maddening, and I am increasingly pessimistic that he ever pulls it all together.

Skip: What has been the best stadium promotional giveaway?

Meg Rowley: I have a James Paxton fanny pack. It is one of my favorite things.

Ivan: Hello Meg. Who do you think out of this years rookie class, if brought up will make the biggest impact. Paddack, Whitley, Tatis Jr?

Meg Rowley: I’d go with Paddack or Tatis, because while I don’t think San Diego is quite there, even with Machado, if those guys come up and are amazing, they might arrive a year early. I think Vlad will have the best year, but that team is pretty far from contention still.

MB: Will Kimbrel be a Brewer or a Brave if you had to guess?

Meg Rowley: I suspect he might end up with Atlanta again, but that is just my guess. (looks quizzically at Boston) Yup.

Eloy : Is it going to be hilarious to listen to the White Sox organization try to explain how my defense has been magically fixed when I’m the opening day left fielder on Thursday?

Meg Rowley: I imagine that it will mostly be really frustrating.

Ryan: Is Sheryl going to continue writing at RotoGraphs? I’ve really enjoyed her stuff.

Meg Rowley: As far as I know! And yes, unsurprisingly, Sheryl’s work has been her usual, typically excellent stuff.

Tyler: Did you see that Preston Wilson called out Adam Dunn for being a bad base runner?  Adam Dunn has a better BsR than Wilson.

Meg Rowley: I think you’ll find that that sort of thing doesn’t always matter to players.

Dave: What’s been the most surprising thing for you in your transition to managing editor?

Meg Rowley: That I could somehow manage to be on the phone more than I was already. The day that Bryce Harper signed, Appelman and I talked 12 times (we were still in our hiring process).

Meg Rowley: Also, and I had had a taste of this on days I had filled in for Carson, but I just work with really smart, dedicated people. I knew that, but getting to see their work in draft form really drives it home in a new way. They are just the best little crew of nerds.

Andrew: Is this not the cruelest part of the baseball season? We’ve had almost important games for the better part of a month now, and baseball was on every day, and now we have nothing for two days. Though I suppose we could have a Kimbrel or Keuchel deal still come through

Meg Rowley: Luckily baseball is here to do all of the extensions and distract you!

Meg Rowley: And yes, wouldn’t it be nice to get good Kimbrel of Keuchel news? This is so damn silly.

Mattus: Which team tops your “gosh they are fun” list of MLB.tv tune-ins to start the year?

Meg Rowley: [extreme no, it isn’t because a bunch of FanGraphs alums work for these teams voice] I really like that Brewers team. I really like that Padres team. I really like that Phillies team. I like that Rays team. I do look forward to watching the Yankees, which feels gross and is weird, and is definitely a sign that I am not in the same place of my baseball fandom as I used to be.

Meg Rowley: Oh and the Rockies. Good pitching in Colorado is a weird joy to behold.

Mr. Gummischuh : When do you think Vlad will get the call to the big show?

Meg Rowley: What day is 15 days from March 28?

Darren: Which team has the biggest drop-off this season?

Meg Rowley: I am tempted to say the A’s, just because the late run carried a lot of that record, the rotation scares me, and now they have guys hurt.

Meg Rowley: Still like big bits of that roster, but I think they’ll swoon some.

Rey Diablo: Every now and again Jeff would answer about how Dave was doing. No details, just that he was liking his job and it was different than what he expected. So, how has Jeff liked his first few weeks as a member of the Rays organization?

Meg Rowley: He’s liked it very much based on what he’s told me.

Meg Rowley: I did yell at him for leaving before the positional power rankings. I did do that.

bootywhite: if the jays wanted to go after an eloy-esque extension for vlad jr, would would be a reasonable offer?

Meg Rowley: an Eloy-esque extension for Vlad Jr. is by definition unreasonable. It was barely reasonable for Eloy.

Ryan Brasier: I’m obviously as good as Kimbrel and me being the biggest piece in a bullpen is not at all an odd way to try to repeat as champions.

Meg Rowley: Red Sox: Don’t worry, we have Ryan Brasier!

Meg Rowley: Us: I know he’s good, but didn’t you have him last year, too?

Meg Rowley: Red Sox: Don’t worry, we have Ryan Brasier!

Meg Rowley: Us: Ok, but…

Mattus: Is there a place to find current service days data for MLB players? I thought Astudillo was still a rookie but cannot find his service time.

Meg Rowley: Baseball-Reference is the best place I know of for it.

Jkim: Would it be a fatal mistake to ask to have my performance review conference call an hour early so that I can watch the Dodgers opening day game at 1PM ET?

Meg Rowley: Guess it depends on how good or bad you think your review will be, and how big of a fan of the Dodgers or Dbacks your boss is.

ProspectWatch: Given that Posey’s path to the league took two seasons, including starting his second season in the same place Bart will begin his season, what do predict the chances are that Joey Bart follows a similar meteoric progression and is up with the big club in September?

Meg Rowley: We expect him to have more of a 2020 ETA. The team isn’t going to be good, and Posey can still play well.

Meg Rowley: He is very, very good though.

Meg Rowley: Bart, I mean.

RR: deGrom potentially (depending on when the signing bonus is paid) took a $10 million dollar cut in 2019 salary. Assuming it is spread evenly over the 5 years, as is somewhat typical, the Mets saved $8 million for this year. Any chance that puts them in the running for Keuchel? I am assuming they are out on Kimbrel b/c Kimbrel probably wants to be locked in as the closer for the life of his deal on the off chance he can catch Mo.

Meg Rowley: I would be surprised if that is the play. I agree with you that they likely aren’t in play for Kimbrel (why would they be with Diaz) but I’d be surprised if they’re in the SP market now.

DC: I saw you just recommend b-r for service time info. Why don’t fangraphs and baseball-reference want to displace each other? Aren’t you competitors?

Meg Rowley: We do a lot of things well! B-Ref does a lot of things well! BP does a lot of things well! Etc etc. Some of those things are in competition, but some are complementary, neither state precludes me from being complimentary. This isn’t the Cosa Nostra.

Bread Gardner: But the Red Sox bullpen, though.  They’re… they’re actually gonna do this this way?  Like, <bias>I’m not complaining, but</bias> shouldn’t they be… better than 27th in projected reliever WAR?

Meg Rowley: You would think that might be of interest to them, yes.

Meg Rowley: I would not personally want to be so close to the Mariners on any of these rankings as they are on the bullpen rankings.

Meg Rowley: That is just, like, my personal preference? Those are just my tastes?

DC: Is Rendon going to get a higher AAV than Bryce?

Meg Rowley: I would be surprised, though given the difference in age maybe? A team might not want to lock him in for as long, I suppose, though isn’t as if he is ancient.

Meg Rowley: Rendon is so good. We talk so much about how underrated he is, but we still haven’t talked enough about him.

Meg Rowley: New Contributor Ben wrote about him (and Alex Bregman) today, in fact:

Meg Rowley: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anthony-rendon-and-alex-bregman-are-the-sa…

Meg Rowley: You should read it. Ben has done a very good job in his first week at FanGraphs in my opinion, as have our other new contributors.

Charlie: Hello! First time joining a fangraphs chat after being a long time audio listener and EW patreon supporter! I’m very curious to read your thoughts on where Astudillo fits into the Twins opening day roster. Do you see him getting more time at 3rd base with Sano injured? Or do you think they will split catching responsibilities 3 ways?

Meg Rowley: I could see him getting more time at third. They might put him in the outfield some. He could spell Cruz on occasion. I don’t care where he plays just that he does.

Morbo: I was just looking at the MLB personal leave rules and the bereavement list allows a player to miss a minimum of 3 games and a maximum of 7 games while the paternity list allows for a minimum of 1 game and a maximum of 3 games missed. As a father to a 7 day old newborn this seems grossly insufficient. The paternity list should at the very least mirror the bereavement list

Meg Rowley: I have no issue with this suggestion. I think those are the sort of weird differences that actually aren’t as thought out as you’d expect. There was a while (maybe it is still true?) where you couldn’t do paternity leave in the post season but could do bereavement. Which, what?

Reagan: Do you think once Jesus Luzardo and Matt Olson come back and Sean Manaea and  AJ Puk come back that the A’s will be a force to be reckoned with?

Meg Rowley: Yes, assuming they all play well, though I still worry about depth.

Sanford: Hello Meg. As a Mets fan I’m extremely happy with deGrom’s extension–firstly because he deserves every penny (and more, one could argue), but also because it shows the Mets aren’t completely tone deaf with regards to pleasing the fans, building trust and confidence with the players (thanks for the nudge, Thor), and paying attention to market trends, what with all the other extensions flying around. Am I crazy to think Brodie has helped the front office/ownership group turn a corner and become a bit more respected, especially with his other moves this winter? Or was the extension such a no-brainer that I shouldn’t give the #LOLMets too much credit?

Meg Rowley: It took a very public bit of dissatisfaction and an apparent low ball offer to make it happen, they still have the Devin Mesoraco business looming and they have spent much of the offseason saying, in ways big and small, conflicts of interest? What are those?

Meg Rowley: I like the deGrom extension and am happy he got paid, but there is still dysfunction here.

AT: Why is it a massive story that the Sox have a terrible bullpen, but not a massive story that the Brewers have a terrible rotation?

Meg Rowley: I think it has been a story, and also, because the Red Sox have the resources of the Red Sox and the Brewers do not.

Meg Rowley: Doesn’t help that the best reliever available this offseason is still available and was recently their employee.

Darren: It’s good that Cleveland’s racist logo is going away (slowly, but better than nothing).  When does baseball get the Braves to stop playing the chop?

Meg Rowley: Truly could not be soon enough.

Meg Rowley: I imagine fans will still do it, just as some Cleveland fans still where Wahoo, but at least don’t play the music cue.

Venerable Bedey Eyes: Re: deGrom and extensions, he should bring back the long hair, right? And Syndergaard, conversely, should maybe mow some things down?

Meg Rowley: I will refrain from commenting on Thor’s hair because I have never suffered the affliction of a receding hair line, nor do I know how I would deal with it, but yes, I like deGrom with the long hair.

Sandwich: Make me one.

Meg Rowley: Ah drat, you’ve uttered the magic phrase, and now I must retire from public life and live in a stereotype. Tragic, really.

Rey Diablo: The Reds will be fun. At least, they deserve to be fun regardless of the Senzel shenanigans.

Meg Rowley: The Reds are somewhat fun. They are trying to win baseball games. That makes them pretty fun.

Meg Rowley: Alright everyone, I have to get going.

Meg Rowley: Appreciate all the questions, and sorry for what I didn’t get to.

Meg Rowley: If you haven’t yet, please check out the positional power rankings.

Meg Rowley: The 1-15th ranked bullpens published as we were chatting: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-…

Meg Rowley: I’ll have a summary of What it All Means for tomorrow.

Meg Rowley: As for the rest of the week, Opening Day will kick off with staff predictions, and then we’ll have an all day, mega chat, with various FanGraphs sorts popping in and out as their schedules allow.

Meg Rowley: Thanks for chatting– see you same time next week. Yay real baseball!