The Astros, who set a franchise-record with 107 regular season wins in 2019, head into the playoffs with a well-balanced roster that includes plenty of star power, young talent, and battle-tested veterans, and almost no weaknesses. Only nine of the 25 players were part of the 2017 championship team, although most of the biggest contributors still remain. The most notable departure is Charlie Morton, who they’ll face off against in Game 3 on Monday.

Here’s how every member of the Astros’ 2019 ALDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (8)

• José Altuve, 2B: Amateur Free Agent (Venezuela) March 2007
• George Springer, OF: Drafted First Round (11) 2011
• Carlos Correa, SS: Drafted First Round (1) 2012
• Josh James, RP: Drafted 34th Round 2014
• Jose Urquidy, RP/SP: Amateur Free Agent (Mexico) March 2015
• Alex Bregman, 3B: Drafted First Round (2) 2015
• Kyle Tucker, OF: Drafted First Round (5) 2015
• Myles Straw, INF/OF: Drafted 12th Round 2015

Total WAR: 24.5

Signed in Free Agency (7)

• Yuli Gurriel, 1B: July 2016 (Cuba) — Signed to five-year, $47.5 million contract.
• Josh Reddick, OF: November 2016 (LAD) — Signed to four-year, $52 million contract.
• Joe Smith, RP: December 2017 (CLE) — Signed to two-year, $15 million contract.
• Héctor Rondón, RP: December 2017 (CHC) — Signed to two-year, $8.5 million contract.
• Robinson Chirinos, C: December 2018 (TEX) — Signed to one-year, $5.75 million contract.
• Michael Brantley, OF: December 2018 (CLE) — Signed two-year, $32 million contract.
• Wade Miley, SP: February 2019 (MIL) — Signed to one-year, $4.5 million contract.

Total WAR: 12.9
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The Dodgers got their 2019 postseason off to a convincing start, blanking the Nationals 6-0 in a game that remained close longer than it should have. Walker Buehler earned his first postseason win, throwing six mostly strong innings marred only by a dicey fourth.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been getting more attention where the Cy Young race is concerned by virtue of his league-leading 2.32 ERA, but with both Ryu and Clayton Kershaw now in their 30s, Buehler has more clearly become the team’s build-around pitcher. For the first time in his career, Buehler was given the Game 1 nod and responded by allowing just a single hit in six innings, while striking out eight. The scoreless outing brings Beuhler’s consecutive postseason scoreless innings streak to 16.2 innings; his last run allowed was a solo homer given up to Christian Yelich in the 2018 NLCS. The next time Buehler fails to strike out seven batters in a postseason game, it will be the first time.

The fourth inning was a very near thing for Buehler and the Dodgers. Only up 2-0 at that point in the game, Buehler threw 11 of his 13 fastballs outside of the strike zone, allowing all three of Washington’s walks in the game. The pitches weren’t a function of failing to get borderline strikes on the edge of the zone, either; five of the fastballs weren’t anywhere close to the strike zone, including two to Adam Eaton that would have been high balls to Manute Bol.

Buehler’s fourth inning a close call continued when facing Juan Soto with Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon on-base. Soto put up a 1.000 OPS against right-handed pitchers in 2019, but he’s struggled against sliders with a .161 batting average and a .274 slugging against sliders from righties. Buehler left a tempting one right in Soto’s wheelhouse and Soto was just an eyelash away from fully crushing it. But after a Howie Kendrick walk, an easy groundout from Asdrúbal Cabrera left the bases loaded and the Nats scoreless.

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While eight teams remain in the postseason, seven who missed out are busy searching for their next skipper. On Thursday, the Mets’ Mickey Callaway joined the ranks of the unemployed, getting the axe after just two seasons at the helm. He’s the fourth manager fired since late September with at least a year remaining on his contract, after the Padres’ Andy Green, the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle, and the Angels’ Brad Ausmus. Meanwhile, two former World Series winners, the Giants’ Bruce Bochy and the Royals’ Ned Yost, have retired, and a third ex-champion, Joe Maddon, parted ways with the Cubs after his contract expired. At this writing, the fate of the Phillies’ Gabe Kapler still hangs in the balance.

What follows here is a roundup of each vacancy, including a list of reported candidates that may not be comprehensive, since all of this is attempting to hit several moving targets. I’ve attempted to distinguish them from those whose candidacies are merely speculative. The teams are listed in order of 2019 records.

Mets (86-76)

What happened: Callaway was hired by general manager Sandy Alderson, who took a leave of absence in mid-2018 due to a recurrence of cancer and decided not to return to the job. Former agent Brodie Van Wagenen was hired last November, and he made a series of splashy moves, many of which ultimately set the Mets back (particularly the trade of two former first-round picks for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz). The holdover manager did not mesh with an increasingly analytically inclined front office — at one point, Callaway boasted, “I bet 85% of our decisions go against the analytics,” a statement that stood out given his often glaring in-game mistakes, many centered around a bullpen that ranked among the league’s worst. Read the rest of this entry »

The early innings of Game 1 at SunTrust Park on Thursday evening — and for that matter, the late ones — served as a reminder that you can watch baseball all year long, and drill deep in analyzing and anticipating what might happen come the postseason, but sometimes, things simply unfold in ways that run counter to numbers and expectations. Depending upon where you sit, that’s the thrill and the agony of October baseball. For seven innings, the mistakes by a stellar Cardinals defense loomed large against the backdrop of a low-scoring affair, but then a late-inning slugfest produced nine of the game’s 13 runs against a pair of usually-solid bullpens. Ultimately, the Cardinals overcame a 3-1 deficit, scoring six unanswered runs in the final two frames and hanging on for a 7-6 victory.

In the regular season, the Cardinals made fewer errors than any other NL team (66), posted the league’s highest Ultimate Zone Rating (32.8), second-highest defensive efficiency rate (.706), and third-highest total of Defensive Runs Saved. That excellent work gave a pitching staff that produced a middling 4.27 FIP quite a leg up; the team’s 3.82 ERA ranked second in the league, and the 0.45 runs per nine gap between ERA and FIP was the majors’ largest. Without that defense — which Craig Edwards called the primary driver of their success just a few weeks ago — the Cardinals might well have wound up in the Wild Card game, or even outside the playoff picture instead of winning the division.

Meanwhile, a bullpen that lost closer Jordan Hicks to Tommy John surgery in late June wound up finding a silver lining in Carlos Martinez’s rotator cuff strain. As with last August, when he rehabbed his way back from a previous shoulder strain as a reliever, Martinez returned to the bullpen. He pitched very well if not dominant, posting a 3.05 ERA and 2.86 FIP while converting 24 of 27 save chances. He allowed just two home runs in 48.1 innings. On Thursday night, when it appeared the game was firmly in hand, he allowed two more and made things interesting. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller discuss the AL and NL wild card games (touching on Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Nick Anderson, Oliver Drake, Yandy Díaz, Avisaíl García, Josh Hader, Trent Grisham, and others), bid farewell to the Brewers and A’s, and analyze the Rays’ and Nationals’ division series prospects, then answer listener emails about the the Rays’ and Yankees’ long-term outlooks and how the regular season would work without playoffs, plus a Stat Blast about the Twins and WAR from foreign-born players and a postscript on Scooter Gennett and a promised home run.

Audio intro: Son Volt, "Wild Side"
Audio outro: Mattiel, "Long Division"

Link to Ben Clemens on Nick Anderson
Link to Levi on Profar
Link to Wilkerson catch
Link to Ben on the Braves
Link to order The MVP Machine

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The Nats have had a winning record in each of the last eight seasons and have reached the playoffs five times during that span, and yet it feels as though they’ve fallen short of expectations year after year. With the departure of Bryce Harper last offseason, a bullpen that’s mostly been bad, and a staff ace who has battled through a back injury for months, this could be the year they’re overlooked. Well, not by me or the three others at FanGraphs who picked them to win it all. But most people aren’t buying that they can take down a Dodgers team that might have more talent and depth than any team in baseball.

Here’s how every member of the Nationals’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (8)

• Ryan Zimmerman, 1B: Drafted First Round (4) 2005
• Stephen Strasburg, SP: Drafted First Round (1) 2009
• Michael A. Taylor, OF: Drafted Sixth Round 2009
• Wander Suero, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) February 2010
• Anthony Rendon, 3B: Drafted First Round (6) 2011
• Austin Voth, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2013
• Victor Robles, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) July 2013
• Juan Soto, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) July 2015

Total WAR: 22.6

Signed in Free Agency (9)

• Max Scherzer, SP: January 2015 (DET) — Signed to seven-year, $210 million contract.
• Kurt Suzuki, C: November 2018 (ATL) — Signed to two-year, $10 million contract.
• Patrick Corbin, SP: December 2018 (ARI) — Signed to six-year, $140 million contract.
• Aníbal Sánchez, SP: December 2018 (ATL) — Signed to two-year, $19 million contract ($12 million club option for 2021).
• Matt Adams, 1B: December 2018 (STL) — Signed to one-year, $4 million contract ($4 million mutual option for 2020).
• Brian Dozier, 2B: January 2019 (LAD) — Signed to one-year, $9 million contract.
• Gerardo Parra, OF: May 2019 (SF) — Signed to minimum salary contract for remainder of season.
• Fernando Rodney, RP: June 2019 (OAK) — Signed to Minor League contract.
• Asdrúbal Cabrera, INF: August 2019 (TEX) — Signed to minimum salary contract for remainder of season.

Total WAR: 17.8

Acquired Via Trade (8)

• Trea Turner, SS: June 2015 (SDP) — Acquired in trade that sent Steven Souza Jr., Jake Bauers, René Rivera, Burch Smith, and Travis Ott to the Rays and Wil Myers, Gerardo Reyes, Jose Castillo, and Ryan Hanigan to the Padres.
• Adam Eaton, OF: December 2016 (CHW) — Acquired in trade that sent Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, and Dane Dunning to the White Sox.
• Sean Doolittle, RP: July 2017 (OAK) — Acquired in trade that sent Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo, and Sheldon Neuse to the Athletics.
• Howie Kendrick, INF: July 2017 (PHI) — Acquired in trade that sent McKenzie Mills and international bonus slot money to the Phillies.
• Yan Gomes, C: December 2018 (CLE) — Acquired in trade that sent Jefry Rodriguez, Daniel Johnson, and Andruw Monasterio to the Indians.
• Tanner Rainey, RP: December 2018 (CIN) — Acquired in trade that sent Tanner Roark to the Reds.
• Hunter Strickland, RP: July 2019 (SEA) — Acquired in trade that sent Aaron Fletcher, Taylor Guilbeau, and Elvis Alvarado to the Mariners.
• Daniel Hudson, RP: July 2019 (TOR) — Acquired in trade that sent Kyle Johnston to the Blue Jays.

Total WAR: 10.6

As should probably have been expected from a team with a ton of young talent and more help on the way that has made back-to-back World Series appearances, the Dodgers’ front office didn’t have to do much during the offseason. And they didn’t. Maybe that decision will be second-guessed if they get knocked out of the playoffs early, but they did win 106 games during the regular season and had all but wrapped up the division title by early June. Regardless of what happens, this team’s run of seven consecutive seasons with at least 91 wins and a playoff appearance isn’t likely to end here.

Here’s how every member of the Dodgers’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (13)

• Kenley Jansen, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Curacao) November 2004
• Clayton Kershaw, SP: Drafted First Round (7) 2006
• Pedro Báez, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) January 2007
• Joc Pederson, OF: Drafted 11th Round 2010
• Corey Seager, SS: Drafted First Round (18) 2012
• Ross Stripling, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2012
• Julio Urías, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Mexico) August 2012
• Cody Bellinger, OF: Drafted Fourth Round 2013
• Walker Buehler, SP: Drafted First Round (24) 2015
• Matt Beaty, INF/OF: Drafted 12th Round 2015
• Gavin Lux, 2B: Drafted First Round (20) 2016
• Will Smith, C: Drafted First Round (32) 2016
• Dustin May, RP: Drafted Third Round 2016

Total WAR: 31.6 Read the rest of this entry »

Tampa Bay cruised past Oakland in the Wild Card game and enters the divisional round for the first time in six years. Their reward is a best-of-five date with the Houston Astros.

The Rays aren’t exactly limping into the postseason. Tampa Bay won 96 games in what passes for a competitive division these days, and they’re solid in all aspects of the game. In Houston though, they’re meeting a 107-win behemoth, a club that looks like one of the two or three best teams we’ve seen this century.

You may have noticed something weird in the “Edge” column of the table above. Ultimately, the yearly totals don’t adequately reflect how dominant Houston’s rotation is as currently constructed. After all, the Rays won’t be facing Collin McHugh or Corbin Martin or Brad Peacock out of the gate. Instead, they’ll get Justin Verlander (73 FIP-), Gerrit Cole (59 FIP-), and Zack Greinke (66 FIP-). No American League club can unleash a better rotation this October, and even if the Astros only let their horses gallop through the lineup twice each start, they’ll still have an advantage in that department. Read the rest of this entry »