Matt Olson Recentered Himself

Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Even if you’re not a Braves fan, you probably know the rough contours of what’s gone down for them this season. The preseason World Series favorites have had horrid injury luck all year. The reigning MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr., scuffled for 50 games before tearing his ACL. Spencer Strider blew out his elbow. Austin Riley broke his hand, Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy each missed two months, Michael Harris II has been banged up; you’ve heard it all before. And the stars who have been around haven’t played up to their potential. Only Chris Sale and Marcell Ozuna, two past-their-prime retreads the Braves expected to be support pieces, have given the team a fighting chance.

That was a good description of the Braves for part of the season, but it doesn’t capture their recent form. Harris started the year in a horrendous slump; he has a 122 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Riley brought the power before his injury. Jorge Soler has been a nice addition. But perhaps most importantly, Matt Olson is back.

Olson put up the best season of his career in 2023, and it wasn’t particularly close. He launched 54 homers, got on base at a career-best rate, and played every game en route to a gaudy 6.6 WAR. He finished fourth in MVP voting, his first top-five finish, and led the majors in homers and RBI. Our projections thought he’d be one of the best hitters in baseball this year, and they weren’t alone. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2222: Deuces (Effectively) Wild

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s return from vacation, Corbin Burnes’s cutter comeback, the demotion of CJ Abrams, the no-longer-dynamic duo of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, the firing of Reds manager David Bell, the Tigers promoting Jackson Jobe, Shota Imanaga’s post-NPB performance, teams refusing to use injuries as an excuse, Charlie Blackmon’s career and home-road splits, Matt Chapman’s long, non-homer hits, and whether to discount Shohei Ohtani’s power-speed exploits for 2024’s scoring environment.

Audio intro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)
Audio outro: Moon Hound, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Orr on Burnes
Link to Kostka on Burnes
Link to Burnes monthly splits
Link to Burnes at Brooks Baseball
Link to ESPN on Abrams
Link to Abrams monthly splits
Link to Verlander update
Link to Scherzer update
Link to 44/60 aging study
Link to MLBTR on Bell
Link to AP on Bell
Link to FG on Bell
Link to Bell ejections story
Link to 2023 BaseRuns records
Link to 2024 BaseRuns records
Link to Reds offseason review
Link to projected record changes
Link to MLB.com on Jobe
Link to BP on Jobe
Link to Jobe/Price story
Link to Sussman on Imanaga
Link to DeltaGraphs
Link to “no excuse” quote
Link to BP IL Ledger
Link to MLBTR on Blackmon
Link to Blackmon home/road splits
Link to biggest splits (OPS points)
Link to biggest splits (%)
Link to Coors hangover article 1
Link to Coors hangover article 2
Link to Coors hangover article 3
Link to Coors hangover article 4
Link to Coors hangover article 5
Link to Rockies road pre-2020
Link to Rockies home pre-2020
Link to Rockies road post-2020
Link to Rockies home post-2020
Link to non-Rockies road post-2020
Link to non-Rockies home post-2020
Link to Blackmon road pre-2020
Link to Blackmon home pre-2020
Link to Blackmon road post-2020
Link to Blackmon home post-2020
Link to Chapman homer
Link to Chapman game story
Link to non-HR distance leaderboard
Link to Jason Bernard’s Twitter
Link to latest HUAL
Link to highest one-game RE24
Link to RE24 glossary
Link to power-speed number wiki
Link to power-speed number by year
Link to adj. power-speed leaders 1
Link to adj. power-speed leaders 2
Link to adj. power-speed data 2
Link to adj. power-speed leaders 3
Link to adj. power-speed data 3
Link to Ken Williams history
Link to 1920s hitter WAR leaders
Link to Superman hair info
Link to EW on sliding
Link to SIS sliding story
Link to 2018 Angels sliding story
Link to Bud Black video

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/24/24

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Today I bring you a comparatively brief chat (just an hour) and the final one from this 2 pm ET time slot. Next week, I’ll be part of our group Wild Card chat (details tba), and in two weeks, I’m planning to debut in the 12 pm ET slot on Tuesdays.

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: This is mainly because parenting responsibilities — mostly pick-ups from school  — have been cutting into this 2 pm time. I hope those of you who have joined me here will make the journey.

2:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece today that’s the first of a four-part series, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the remaining contenders in a Replacement Level Killers-style trip around the diamond, only this time with pitching as well. This first installment is devoted to the best in the NL https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-strongest-positions-on-the-remaining-n…

2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow will be the best in the AL. Yesterday I checked in on what’s left of the Wild Card races https://blogs.fangraphs.com/setting-up-a-wild-card-final-week/

2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show…

2:05
brooklyn resident: Ohtani: best DH season ever?

Read the rest of this entry »


The Strongest Positions on the Remaining NL Contenders

Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

With six days left in the regular season — and six games for most teams — three teams have clinched their respective divisions (the Brewers, Guardians, and Phillies), and two others have clinched playoff berths (the Dodgers and Yankees). That leaves 10 teams fighting for seven spots, but even with the playoff field not fully set, we thought it would be a fun and worthwhile exercise to highlight various facets of the potential October teams by going around the diamond to identify the strongest and weakest at each position in each league.

This is something of an offshoot of my annual Replacement Level Killers series, and in fact even some confirmed October participants have spots that still fit the bill as true lineup sinkholes — think first base for the Yankees and Brewers, to pick one position from among the aforementioned teams — but this time with no trade deadline to help fill them. For this, I’ll be considering full-season performance but with an eye to who’s best or worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Unlike the Killers series, I’ll also be considering pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens part of the deliberations.

For the first installment of this series, I’ll focus on each position’s best among the remaining National League contenders. In this case that limits the field to the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Braves, with the last three of those teams fighting for two Wild Card spots. Read the rest of this entry »


The Reds Can’t Unring a Bell, but They Can Fire Him

Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

Last Friday and Saturday, the Cincinnati Reds routed the Pittsburgh Pirates in back-to-back games by a combined score of 15-4. The Reds were 74-80 when the Pirates came to town for the three-game series, and their chances of finishing above .500 and matching last year’s 82-80 record were slim, but they kept those hopes alive over those two games.

Then Paul Skenes took the mound. On Sunday, the Pirates pulled off a shutout on the back of five brilliant innings from their first-year ace. It was the third time the rookie phenom has dominated the Reds this season. Cincinnati managed just three hits and one walk all afternoon, striking out 13 times (nine against Skenes). After Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, and Tyler Stephenson went down one-two-three in the bottom of the ninth, the Reds fell to 76-81, assuring they would finish with a worse record than they did last season.

Around 6:30 that evening, president of baseball operations Nick Krall informed manager David Bell that his services were no longer required. Bench coach Freddie Benavides was named the interim manager for the five games remaining in the 2024 season. This was Bell’s sixth season as the Reds manager. He also managed in their minor league system from 2009-12, giving him just under 10 years of service with the club. Although he’s the only member of the Bell family’s three generations of major leaguers to never play for the Reds — his grandfather, father, and brother all suited up for the family team – David is the Bell who spent the most time with the club. Read the rest of this entry »


The Jaime García All-Stars

David Banks-Imagn Images

I feel a little bad for Shota Imanaga. The Cubs left-hander is sixth among qualified starters in ERA and ninth in K-BB%. He’s thrown 173 1/3 innings, which is a bunch by modern standards, and while we don’t put much probative value in pitcher record in this day and age, Imanaga is still 15-3 for a pretty mediocre Cubs team. After Imanaga threw seven scoreless innings on Sunday — the second time he’s done that this month — I saw a little bit of Twitter chatter from people wondering where his Rookie of the Year buzz went?

FIP doesn’t like Imanaga that much, because he gives up a bunch of home runs, but even after getting dinged for that, Imanaga has put up a 3.1-WAR season as a rookie. There are years where that, in addition to his pretty uncontroversially awesome traditional stats, would be good enough to win Imanaga some hardware.

Unfortunately, Imanaga is the third competitor in a pretty thrilling two-man race between Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill. Do you want the flashy giant with triple-digit heat and an unhittable off-speed pitch that defines classification? Or do you want the guy who learned a brand new position basically overnight at age 20, and oh by the way is nearly hitting .300 with power in a park that’s unfriendly to hitters?

Me? I’d go with Skenes, but would have a hard time mounting a negative argument against Merrill. Either one would be a deserving winner. As for Imanaga, I’m actually not sure he’d be the third man on my ballot if I had one. That’d probably be Jackson Chourio, who would have a legitimate case if Merrill hadn’t broken the curve. Tyler Fitzgerald isn’t a sexy name, but he’s got a 135 wRC+ in 90 games, mostly as a shortstop. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s case was undone by injuries, but he’s nearly equaled Imanaga’s WAR total in roughly half as many innings. He’ll get down-ballot votes as well.

The thing is, Rookie of the Year is a volatile competition. The MVP and Cy Young classes vary in quality from year to year, but not by much. The list of best players in baseball is pretty stable from one season to the next.

Best rookies, however? That’s another question. Future MVPs and Hall of Famers don’t bubble up from the minors in a steady stream. Sometimes they come two and three at a time. Sometimes they come in April, other times in August, too late to influence the Rookie of the Year race. Sometimes there are several in one league but none in the other.

Some years, well, they mint a new plaque for each league every year, and you’ve got to give it to somebody. And that’s not even counting flash-in-the-pan cases who won the award on merit but fizzled out later. For instance: Bob Hamelin is easy to mock because he was a pudgy guy who wore glasses and was a replacement-level player for bad teams for almost all of his short career. But the man raked in 1994: .282/.388/.599, with 24 homers and 56 walks in just 374 plate appearances. He earned his spot as a historical footnote, don’t let anyone tell you different.

But in other cases the first great season of a superstar career goes completely unrewarded. Or a relatively underhyped rookie puts in a big first season and barely gets noticed. Which is what will happen to Imanaga, in all likelihood.

At times like this, I think of Jaime García. Like Imanaga, García was an unassuming-looking lefty for an NL Central team who would’ve had a real shot at Rookie of the Year if he weren’t up against two monsters. In 2010, García posted a 2.70 ERA in 163 1/3 innings. And this was back when a 2.70 ERA meant something — that was a 69 ERA-. He did get a single first-place Rookie of the Year vote, but only one, because Buster Posey and Jason Heyward were also in that class. Posey took his first step toward Cooperstown with that season, and Heyward set himself up for a lifetime of disappointment by posting a career-high .393 OBP. It takes a lot to get noticed in that environment.

I went back through the Rookie of the Year races since 1980, which is when voting went from one player per ballot to (brushing off my old comparative politics textbooks) ranked choice voting. And I’ll say this: As much as the BBWAA voters went through a rough time during the Fire Joe Morgan era, and as much as the Hall of Fame continues to be a contentious battlefield pitting the forces of reason against the forces of silliness, the writers have gotten to the right answer most of the time. There are always cranks and outliers (I was amused to discover Ichiro was not a unanimous Rookie of the Year in 2001, and that five voters chose Miguel Andujar over Shohei Ohtani in 2018), but the collective has been solid.

So, in addition to García himself, I present the Jaime García All-Stars:

1984 National League: Orel Hershiser
Player Rank Points First-Place Votes WAR
Dwight Gooden 1st 118 23 8.3
Juan Samuel 2nd 67 1 3.1
Orel Hershiser 3rd 15 0 4.0

A key characteristic of the Jaime García All-Stars is that they did not actually deserve the award. So while Orel Hershiser was awesome in 1984, posting a 2.66 ERA in 189 2/3 innings split between the rotation and the bullpen, he had the misfortune of coming up against Samuel, who hit .272 and stole 72 bases. And also Gooden, who put up one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time. Tough beat.

1989 American League: Kevin Brown
Player Rank Points First-Place Votes WAR
Gregg Olson 1st 136 26 2.0
Tom Gordon 2nd 67 1 2.4
Ken Griffey Jr. 3rd 21 1 2.5
Craig Worthington 4th 16 0 1.5
Jim Abbott 5th 10 0 2.5
Kevin Brown 6th 2 0 3.1

Brown had a case to win Rookie of the Year by WAR, but Olson was a reliever and we all know WAR doesn’t count for relievers. What does count: a 1.69 ERA and 27 saves. It’s fine. But this was the start of Brown — for reasons I still don’t understand — being wildly underrated by awards voters. He never won a Cy Young and really only came close once, in 1998, when he lost a three-way battle with Tom Glavine and Trevor Hoffman. (Glavine, at the risk of reiterating an opinion that’s gonna get me yelled at, is the most overrated pitcher of his generation, which makes Brown being snubbed for him all the more fitting.) And, of course, Brown lasted a single year on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. When I’m dictator of baseball, Brown will get the respect he deserves.

2001: Both Leagues, Several Players
American League
Player Rank Points First-Place Votes WAR
Ichiro Suzuki 1st 138 27 6.0
CC Sabathia 2nd 73 1 2.7
Alfonso Soriano 3rd 35 0 0.1
David Eckstein 4th 6 0 2.2
National League
Player Rank Points First-Place Votes WAR
Albert Pujols 1st 160 32 7.2
Roy Oswalt 2nd 82 0 4.2
Jimmy Rollins 3rd 44 0 2.1
Adam Dunn T4th 1 0 2.1

Ichiro and Pujols were two of the most obvious Rookies of the Year ever, and then backed it up by putting on lengthy Hall of Fame-worthy careers. But their success obscures how good the rest of that rookie class was: a future Hall of Famer in Sabathia, several Hall of Very Gooders in Oswalt, Soriano, and Rollins. Plus Adam Dunn. And a David Eckstein sighting! Oswalt is the only one who really ought to feel aggrieved at not winning Rookie of the Year — everyone else burst into the league with decent-but-not-great campaigns — but this is quite a list of names to have beaten back so resoundingly.

2007 National League: Hunter Pence
Player Rank Points First-Place Votes WAR
Ryan Braun 1st 128 17 2.5
Troy Tulowitzki 2nd 126 15 5.2
Hunter Pence 3rd 15 0 3.5

The WAR totals make this look like a miscarriage of justice, but it’s important to remember that Braun hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases in just 113 games, while Tulowitzki played 155. Also, the defensive metrics have Tulowitzki an astonishing 49.1 runs ahead of Braun. Based on the what happened to both players later in their careers, I’m inclined to believe that Braun was a bad third baseman and Tulo a very good shortstop, but I have a hard time trusting that big a gap based on data from 2007.

Either way, poor Hunter Pence got lost in the shuffle. A literal shuffle, one might say, given Pence’s unorthodox running style. Even so, a 132 wRC+ in 108 games is a great rookie season — hardware is routinely won with less.

2013 National League: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Player Rank Points First-Place Votes WAR
José Fernández 1st 142 26 4.2
Yasiel Puig 2nd 95 4 3.9
Shelby Miller 3rd 12 0 2.1
Hyun-Jin Ryu 4th 10 0 3.8

García, Imanaga, Ryu… I’d argue J.A. Happ in 2009, though he finished second in a pretty forgettable class. Voters like left-handers without elite velocity enough to notice them, but not enough to give them serious consideration for the top of the ballot. I get Ryu’s falling down the pecking order because he was a 26-year-old KBO veteran, and because he was overshadowed not only by Clayton Kershaw, but by Puig, who was the most buzz-worthy player in the league at the time. The only person who came close was, well, Fernández.

2018 National League: Walker Buehler
Player Rank Points First-Place Votes WAR
Ronald Acuña Jr. 1st 144 27 4.4
Juan Soto 2nd 89 2 3.7
Walker Buehler 3rd 28 1 3.1

I remember this race between Acuña and Soto being much closer than it was. That happens sometimes in award voting (the Jose Altuve vs. Aaron Judge race for AL MVP in 2017 was like this too) where there’s a clear closely matched top two, but rather than that manifesting in an even split of votes, everyone comes down on the same side of a close call.

Either way, Buehler, despite his single first-place vote, was a distant third. It’s in keeping with a career where Buehler was always among the best on his team, or in the league, or whatever cohort you want to choose, but never clearly the best.

2022 American League: Steven Kwan
Player Rank Points First-Place Votes WAR
Julio Rodríguez 1st 148 29 5.8
Adley Rutschman 2nd 68 1 5.6
Steven Kwan 3rd 44 0 4.7

Another close race with a lopsided result. And in contrast to the 2018 NL race, where Acuña had the better season, I think the voters missed on this one. Not that Rodríguez wasn’t special — or that he didn’t turn into an absolute superstar — but I think the difficulty of posting a 135 wRC+ from behind the plate, as Rutschman did as a rookie, continues to be wildly underrated. Even so, the true hard case here is Kwan, who hit .298/.373/.400, stole 19 bases, and still wound up an afterthought. Behind his old college teammate, no less! What an indignity.

This was an even stronger rookie class than that, with Bobby Witt Jr., George Kirby, and Jeremy Peña also getting down-ballot votes. Kirby didn’t have a huge workload, Witt had not fully crystallized into what he would become (he hit 20 homers and stole 30 bases, but posted an OBP of just .294), and your opinion of Peña probably depends on which defensive metrics you believe.

Kwan was incredible as a rookie by anyone’s standards, but was still clearly the third-best player in his class.

This being a highly subjective exercise, this is not — and cannot be, really — an exhaustive list. (Please share your favorite forgotten rookie season in the comments.) But the larger point is this: Imanaga is still having a great rookie campaign, even if he doesn’t get any hardware to show for it. Sometimes there’s just a better rookie.


Top of the Order: A List of Some Potential Managerial Candidates

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

If you’ve read even a couple installments of this column, you know that roster changes are my favorite things in baseball. Free agents, trades, extensions, IL stints… I don’t really care; they’re all interesting and fun to follow! My love for such machinations isn’t limited to players, though. I’m also a big fan of managerial and coaching changes, so much so that I have a personal Excel workbook that contains nothing but a list of the current coaching staffs.

So, now that we’ve reached the point of the season when the managerial carousel starts spinning — David Bell’s firing by the Reds on Sunday was the latest move — this is a great time to look over who teams could have on their candidate lists. At least three teams will be in the hunt for managers: the White Sox, Reds, and Marlins. Miami hasn’t officially moved on from Skip Schumaker, but he’s already discussing his tenure in the past tense. Teams with a managerial vacancy almost always cast a wide net, so I’ll do the same in running down some options. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: New York Mets – Intern, Baseball Analytics

Intern, Baseball Analytics

Location: Citi Field – Queens, New York

Summary:

The New York Mets are seeking an intern in our Baseball Analytics Department for the summer of 2025. During the summer, the Intern will build, test, and present statistical models to inform the decision-making of our Baseball Operations department. This position requires strong background in complex statistics and data analytics, as well as the ability to communicate statistical model details and findings to both a technical and non-technical audience. Prior experience in or knowledge of baseball is a plus, but is not required.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

  • Build statistical models to answer a wide variety of baseball-related questions affecting the operations of the organization using advanced knowledge of statistics and data analytics and exercising appropriate discretion and judgment regarding development of statistical models

  • Interpret data and report conclusions drawn from their analyses

  • Present model outputs in an effective way, both for technical and non-technical audiences

  • Communicate well with both the Baseball Analytics team as well as other Baseball Operations personnel to understand the parameters of any particular research project

Qualifications:

  • Pursuing a degree in statistics or a related field

  • Professional experience in a quantitative position is a plus

  • Strong background in a wide variety of statistical techniques

  • Strong proficiency in R or Python

  • Strong communication skills

  • Ability to work cooperatively with others

The above information is intended to describe the general nature, type, and level of work to be performed. The information is not intended to be an exhaustive or complete list of all responsibilities, duties, and skills required for this position. Nothing in this job description restricts management’s right to assign or reassign duties and responsibilities to this job at any time. The individual selected may perform other related duties as assigned or requested.

The New York Mets recognize the importance of a diverse workforce and value the unique qualities individuals of various backgrounds and experiences can offer to the Organization. Our continued success depends heavily on the quality of our workforce. The Organization is committed to providing employees with the opportunity to develop to their fullest potential.

Pay Range: $20-25/hourly

For technical reasons, we strongly advise to not use an .edu email address when applying. Thank you very much.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the New York Mets.


FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 16–22

The final week of the regular season is upon us and most of the division races are pretty much decided, if not officially wrapped up. Thankfully, the two Wild Card races should provide plenty of drama over the next seven days.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.

To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds. (Specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%.) As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Padres 90-66 1587 1499 100.0% 1627 0
2 Dodgers 93-63 1572 1495 100.0% 1615 1
3 Mets 87-69 1587 1501 76.4% 1605 7
4 Astros 85-71 1554 1497 99.8% 1601 1
5 Yankees 92-64 1554 1503 100.0% 1601 2
6 Diamondbacks 87-69 1573 1501 82.7% 1598 -2
7 Phillies 92-64 1549 1495 100.0% 1597 -5
8 Brewers 89-67 1540 1495 100.0% 1591 -2
9 Guardians 90-67 1523 1493 100.0% 1578 -1
10 Tigers 82-74 1558 1494 70.6% 1564 4
11 Orioles 86-70 1481 1498 99.9% 1545 0
12 Royals 82-74 1478 1497 68.2% 1513 -3
13 Braves 85-71 1529 1497 40.9% 1500 -1
14 Twins 81-75 1466 1489 54.1% 1475 -1
15 Rays 78-78 1523 1506 0.6% 1458 5
16 Cubs 80-76 1523 1497 0.0% 1457 -1
17 Cardinals 79-77 1519 1500 0.0% 1455 2
18 Mariners 80-76 1502 1496 6.6% 1450 -2
19 Giants 77-79 1499 1495 0.0% 1439 6
20 Reds 76-81 1499 1499 0.0% 1439 -2
21 Blue Jays 73-83 1481 1511 0.0% 1425 -4
22 Rangers 74-82 1479 1500 0.0% 1424 1
23 Red Sox 78-78 1477 1504 0.2% 1422 -1
24 Pirates 73-83 1468 1503 0.0% 1415 -3
25 Rockies 60-96 1464 1510 0.0% 1412 2
26 Athletics 67-89 1459 1500 0.0% 1408 0
27 Nationals 69-87 1444 1505 0.0% 1397 -3
28 Marlins 57-99 1421 1512 0.0% 1380 0
29 Angels 63-93 1408 1499 0.0% 1370 0
30 White Sox 36-120 1286 1507 0.0% 1277 0

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Padres 90-66 1587 1499 100.0% 1627
Dodgers 93-63 1572 1495 100.0% 1615

The Padres won five games last week to push three games ahead of the Diamondbacks and Mets for the first NL Wild Card spot and just three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. San Diego and Los Angeles are set to face off three times at Dodger Stadium this week, beginning Tuesday. The Padres are the only second-place team with a greater than 1% chance to win the division. It won’t be easy, because even if the Friars take care of business against the Dodgers, they close out the regular season with a three-game set in Arizona over the weekend.

Shohei Ohtani just completed what could very well be the best week ever produced by a big leaguer; not only did he found the 50/50 club with an epic performance on Thursday, he added two more home runs and four more stolen bases over the weekend to bring his season totals to 53 homers and 55 steals. In total, he collected 16 hits, six home runs, 15 RBI, and seven stolen bases last week. After hosting San Diego for three games with their 11th division title in 12 years on the line, the Dodgers head to Coors Field this weekend for three games against the last-place Rockies.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Mets 87-69 1587 1501 76.4% 1605
Astros 85-71 1554 1497 99.8% 1601
Yankees 92-64 1554 1503 100.0% 1601
Diamondbacks 87-69 1573 1501 82.7% 1598
Phillies 92-64 1549 1495 100.0% 1597
Brewers 89-67 1540 1495 100.0% 1591

The Diamondbacks blew an 8-0 lead on Sunday afternoon to lose to the Brewers, denying them a chance to mop the four-game series in Milwaukee. That loss meant they ended the week tied with the Mets in the Wild Card standings, which ratchets up the stakes for this final week of the season. Eugenio Suárez continues to rake and Ketel Marte launched home runs in three consecutive games over the weekend, but the Snakes will need all hands on deck to maintain their playoff position.

While it wasn’t the smoothest ascent to the top of the AL West, all the Astros need to do to clinch the division is win one of their three home games against the Mariners this week. Fortunately, Houston may have “dodged a bullet” after Yordan Alvarez injured his knee on Sunday, though his status is unclear as of this writing.

The Yankees survived their six-week slump this summer and now need to win just one of their final six games to clinch the AL East. After a bit of a slowdown earlier this month, the bats of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto woke up a bit last week. This team will go as deep in October as those two will carry it.

After sweeping the Nationals and winning three of four from the Phillies, the Mets are completely in control of their playoff destiny. They travel to Atlanta this week looking to completely bury the Braves in the standings and secure their surprise spot in the postseason.

It doesn’t bode well that the Phillies faced two playoff teams last week — the Brewers and Mets — and came away with just two wins in seven games. With the division all but locked up, perhaps they were just taking it easy before the postseason begins. After their hot start to the season, their up-and-down second half hasn’t bred a ton of confidence in their ability to cruise through the early rounds. Still, Philadelphia is filled with veterans who have engineered deep playoff runs two years in a row; the Phillies should be fine.

The Brewers became the first team in the majors to clinch their division last week, so I suppose you could excuse the series loss to the Diamondbacks over the weekend. The dramatic come-from-behind victory on Sunday was a nice way to show that they still have a lot of fire within them. They’ll need it as they seek their first postseason series victory since 2018.

Tier 3 – The Guardians
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Guardians 90-67 1523 1493 100.0% 1578

The Guardians are in a weird spot: They’re not consistently good enough to fit in the second tier but they’re clearly above the fray of teams in the Wild Card race. Still, after their disappointing season last year with largely the same cast, they clinched the AL Central on Saturday, their fifth title in the last nine seasons.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Tigers 82-74 1558 1494 70.6% 1564
Orioles 86-70 1481 1498 99.9% 1545
Royals 82-74 1478 1497 68.2% 1513
Braves 85-71 1529 1497 40.9% 1500
Twins 81-75 1466 1489 54.1% 1475
Mariners 80-76 1502 1496 6.6% 1450

If the AL Wild Card race hadn’t been so dramatic over the past few weeks, we’d probably be paying more attention to the Orioles’ fall down the standings. As recently as September 10, they were just a half game back in the AL East; now, they are one loss or one Yankees win away from having to settle for a Wild Card berth. Baltimore’s pitching staff has had plenty of issues during the second half of the season — things got so bad in the bullpen, they opted to release Craig Kimbrel instead of hoping to fix him before the playoffs. In more positive news, the O’s just activated Jordan Westburg off the IL on Sunday, they’ll hope he can provide a spark as they crawl their way into the playoffs.

If you’re looking for drama this final week of the season, look no further than the AL Wild Card race. Against all odds, the Tigers have surged into a playoff berth and are currently tied in the standings with the Royals and a game ahead of the Twins. They did it by sweeping the Royals last week and then taking two of three from the Orioles in Baltimore. That’s a pretty stiff challenge and shows just how good Detroit has been during this late-season hot streak. With three-game series at home against the Rays and White Sox, the Tigers have the weakest schedule of the four teams fighting over the last two Wild Card spots.

The Royals have now had two separate seven-game losing streaks over the past month. Sure, there was a 7-2 stretch sandwiched between those skids, but Kansas City is on the verge of tripping right as it reaches the finish line. The Royals have three games against the Nationals in Washington, followed by three weekend games in Atlanta that should be crucial for both teams. Buckle up.

After losing both games of their Sunday doubleheader against the Red Sox, the Twins are out of a playoff position for the first time since April. They’re barely hanging on, and their only saving grace has been the simultaneous collapse of the Royals. Luckily for Minnesota, it holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City, Detroit, and Seattle; this could definitely come into play in such a tight Wild Card race. The Twins host the Marlins and Orioles this week.

Don’t count out the Mariners just yet either, though some agonizing mistakes last week really hindered any progress they could have made in the standings. Sunday’s loss was perhaps the most glaring; leading the Rangers 5-0 after 5 1/2 innings, Seattle gave up four runs in the sixth and another in the seventh before ultimately losing on Marcus Semien’s walk-off single in the ninth. It was just the fifth time all season that the Mariners lost a game in which they scored five or more runs. For as bad as things have been since mid-July, when they squandered a 10-game divisional lead in record time, the Mariners enter this week just two games out of the final Wild Card berth and five games back in the AL West standings. Seattle faces long odds to reach the playoffs, let alone to retake the division, but it’s not impossible. The Mariners head to Houston for three games against the Astros before ending the season at home against the A’s.

Over in the National League, the banged-up Braves are still alive in the Wild Card race. They are two games out of the final spot with six to play, including three at home against the Mets, one of the two teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. Atlanta needs to take two of three from New York to hold the season-series advantage that would settle a potential tie, and it already holds the tiebreaker over Arizona. Things aren’t great for the Braves, but if they start winning again this week, they should find their way in.

Tier 5 – Spoiler Alert
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Rays 78-78 1523 1506 0.6% 1458
Cubs 80-76 1523 1497 0.0% 1457
Cardinals 79-77 1519 1500 0.0% 1455
Giants 77-79 1499 1495 0.0% 1439
Reds 76-81 1499 1499 0.0% 1439

The Reds surprisingly fired manager David Bell on Sunday night, less than a year after signing him to a contract extension that runs through 2026. They “felt a change was needed to move the Major League team forward,” said GM Nick Krall. “We have not achieved the success we expected.” Maybe a new voice in the clubhouse is needed, but the reality is that injuries and Noelvi Marte’s suspension played major parts in the team’s underperformance. Even so, things aren’t too bleak in Cincinnati, where Elly De La Cruz has continued his ascent and should receive down ballot MVP votes this season. Of course, the real sticking point is the amount of investment the Reds will receive to improve the rest of their roster. That’s not something a new manager will be able to solve.

The Giants succeeded in playing spoilers last week, winning two of three against the Orioles and then sweeping the Royals over the weekend. San Francisco has one last shot to reprise its role this week with a three-game series in Arizona, beginning Monday night.

Tier 6 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Blue Jays 73-83 1481 1511 0.0% 1425
Rangers 74-82 1479 1500 0.0% 1424
Red Sox 78-78 1477 1504 0.2% 1422
Pirates 73-83 1468 1503 0.0% 1415
Rockies 60-96 1464 1510 0.0% 1412
Athletics 67-89 1459 1500 0.0% 1408
Nationals 69-87 1444 1505 0.0% 1397
Marlins 57-99 1421 1512 0.0% 1380
Angels 63-93 1408 1499 0.0% 1370

Of all the teams in this huge tier, Toronto seems like the club that’s most likely to bounce back with a good season next year. The Blue Jays opted to hang onto all of their big stars at the deadline, and they did manage to play a little better during the second half of the season. Still, the roster isn’t without holes, and they’ll need a healthy season from Bo Bichette to reach their full potential.

The Rockies were so close to winning a pair of series against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers last week. Back-to-back home runs from Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts secured the walk-off victory on Sunday and forced Colorado to settle for a single win in that weekend series. The Rockies have another crack at Los Angeles next weekend.

While James Wood has adapted to major league pitching pretty quickly, Dylan Crews has taken a little longer to make the adjustment to the big leagues. The Nationals aren’t on the verge of breaking out of their rebuilding cycle just yet, which means Crews has some time to acclimate. Unfortunately, All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams, the other young member of their core, was optioned to the minors over the weekend reportedly after breaking curfew for an all-nighter at a casino before a day game in Chicago. Not a great look for someone who is supposed to be leading the team into its next contention window.

Tier 7 – The Worst of the Worst
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
White Sox 36-120 1286 1507 0.0% 1277

With their 120th loss of the year on Sunday, the White Sox tied the 1962 Mets for the most losses in a season since the founding of the American League in 1901. Barring a miraculous turn of events, they will go down as the worst team in modern MLB history. But hey, look on the bright side: Even if they lose their final six games, they still won’t lose as many games as the 1899 Cleveland Spiders!


Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/23/24

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