David Price’s Playoff Problem Might Be a Cutter Problem

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October 18, 2018

It’s perhaps easy to forget, given his postseason woes and the presence of a dominant left-handed rotation mate, but David Price remains, at age 33, among the premier starting pitchers in baseball. Price, in his career, owns a 3.34 FIP, 80 ERA-, and 82 FIP-. (For comparison’s sake, Justin Verlander is at a nearly identical 80 and 81, respectively.) Even in his injury-shortened 2018, Price still approached three wins, and his 24.5% strikeout rate in 2018 remains among top-25 marks in the major leagues.

Though he’s now a couple of years removed from his prime — during which he rattled off seven seasons of 4 WAR or more — he retains a five-pitch arsenal, three of which (fastball, cutter, and sinker) posted positive run values this year. He doesn’t throw as hard as he used to — Father Time is, after all, undefeated — but a 93 mph fastball and an above-average cutter and sinker should still be enough to get hitters out. They were, after all, during the regular season.

Except that, in his postseason career, David Price has posted a 133 ERA-, 115 FIP-, and -0.92 WPA. In 2018, in the postseason, Price has a 222 ERA- and 259 FIP-, “good” for a -0.38 WPA. In other words, David Price, regular-season ace, makes his teams worse in the playoffs. Price’s failures in the postseason are by now a well-known narrative. The Wall Street Journal’s Brian Costa and Jared Diamond called Price’s playoff misery one of “the Great Mysteries of October Baseball.” After the Sox’ October 6 loss to the Yankees in the Division Series, Bob Nightengale openly wondered if Price would even start again in the playoffs.

Let me start by saying that I am very much a lawyer, and not what one might term a “sabermetrician.” In other words, I profess no great or singular skill, unlike Dan Szymborski or Jeff Sullivan or Jay Jaffe. What I do have, on the other hand, is a healthy curiosity for this game we call “baseball,” and more specifically why things happen the way they do. Lawyers like patterns and predictability. We dislike anomalies. David Price is an anomaly.

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 10/18/18

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October 18, 2018
2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey there, everyone. Time to chat.
2:01
RS: Giants catcher in the AFL, Matt Winn, profile good enough to be a major league backup?
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Several caveats when evaluating AFL catchers: they’re probably tired, they’re catching a whole new staff of guys, they’re catching once or twice a week. So the error bar around evals of catchers here is greater. Having said that, I’d answer your question with a ‘no’
2:03
Jay: Should the A’s let Lowrie walk and give Barreto a shot at 2B, or trade Barreto for pitching?
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d hold onto Barreto
2:03
Pip: Who’s the better prospect moving forward, the National’s, or the Phillies’ Luis Garcia?

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The Gambit Versus the Ace

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October 18, 2018

Early in this NLCS, when the defining feature of it seemed to be the randomness of Brandon Woodruff‘s Game One homer off Clayton Kershaw and Wade Miley’s Game Two double off Hyun-Jin Ryu, it was easy to scoff at the hype equating the series to a chess match between managers Craig Counsell and Dave Roberts. As the series has unfolded, however, watching Counsell handle the Brewers’ pitching staff in a fashion largely without precedent in postseason baseball and Roberts use the Dodgers’ roster’s depth and versatility to counter with “line changes” (in the hockey sense) to secure the platoon advantage in as many spots as possible has made for a compelling accompaniment to the action on the field.

Never was that more true than in Game Five, when Counsell’s shockingly quick hook of Miley in favor of Woodruff — echoing a tactic from a World Series nearly a century ago — and Roberts’ persistence in sticking with Kershaw made for the series’ starkest contrast yet. Ultimately, the Dodgers outlasted the Brewers for a 5-2 win and a 3-2 series edge.

The wily, left-handed Miley had pitched brilliantly in Game Two, retiring 17 of the 19 Dodgers he faced while helping to keep the Dodgers scoreless through six. Only after he departed did Los Angeles’s offense show signs of life, ultimately breaking through for a 4-3 win. When Counsell announced that Miley would start Game FIve on three days of rest, the choice seemed logical given the team’s loose definition of a “rotation,” because nobody expected seven innings or 100 pitches. Four innings, give or take, made perfect sense, even with the staff having been stretched for 13 innings in their Game Four loss.

Roberts, whose all-righty starting lineup from Game Two floundered against Miley, sensed an early move might be afoot and guarded towards an early change to a righty by starting two lefties and rejiggering his outfield:

Dodgers NLCS Lineup Comparison
# Game 2 Bats Game 5 Bats
1 Chris Taylor, CF R Cody Bellinger, CF L
2 Justin Turner, 3B R Justin Turner, 3B R
3 David Freese, 1B R David Freese, 1B R
4 Manny Machado, SS R Manny Machado, SS R
5 Matt Kemp, LF R Max Muncy, 2B L
6 Enrique Hernandez, 2B R Chris Taylor, LF R
7 Yasiel Puig, RF R Enrique Hernandez, RF R
8 Austin Barne,s C R Austin Barnes, C R
9 Hyun-Jin Ryu, P R Clayton Kershaw, P L

Muncy, who hit for a 141 wRC+ against southpaws, was starting at second base for the first time since September 11 and just the 14th time all season. Bellinger, Tuesday night’s hero, managed just an 88 wRC+ against southpaws this year.

As it turned out, Miley threw just five pitches, walking Bellinger and getting the hook — not for injury or performance reasons, but because that had been Counsell’s plan all along — to switch to the right-handed Woodruff, who had thrown two impressive, perfect innings in Game One. The idea to bring Miley back to start Game Six in Milwaukee. It was a plan so secret that only the two pitchers, Counsell, and his staff knew ahead of time; Woodruff couldn’t even tell his family, and players such as Lorenzo Cain professed to be caught off guard.

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A Brief Note on Supposed Home-Run Robbery and Certainty

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October 18, 2018

I like the postseason but on this score it fails: it precludes us from saying anything too definitive about baseball broadly understood. The sample size is just too small. Guys are tired. There are so many pitchers, and a lot of them are used in funny ways. We can’t feel secure that the knowledge gleaned there means anything. Still, October does manage to reveal some truths. For all its oddity, it seeks out certainties. It has replay.

To wit, as Jeff detailed Wednesday night’s ALCS game featured a controversial Joe West fan-interference call on a would-be Jose Altuve home run. The call was challenged but was allowed to stand because replay officials couldn’t determine if the fans entered the field of play to prevent Mookie Betts from catching the ball. (If Betts were judged to have entered the stands, the interference question would be moot, under rule 6.01(e) of the Official Baseball Rules 2018 edition, and also the general principle that teenagers in horror films ought to know better than to go into the basement.)

Here are the fans in question. An obvious bunch of leaning scamps, but a blurry bunch at a tough angle.

The officials’ struggle to reach a definitive conclusion, to find “clear and convincing evidence,” was largely the result of this man, whose body happened to block the one view of the play the replay center needed most.

It is here, in our failed quest to be sure, that we learn something. We find that it is possible to be simultaneously quite good and quite bad at one’s job.

Quite good, because surely displaying a close, keen interest in the goings on at the wall is importantly necessary to assuring the physical safety of both players and fans; quite bad, because, entirely by accident, this security man has robbed us of our ability to be sure, at precisely the moment we crave being sure the most. We are secure in body but unmoored in the mind, and him? He is Schrödinger’s Employee of the Month.

Betts maybe wasn’t interfered with. Joe West probably got the initial call wrong; sometimes we can hazard a confident guess. But absent certainty on either score, there is some value, especially in times when we can claim to know so little, in confirming that humans are possessed of multitudes, even if only in small samples.


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/18/18

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October 18, 2018
12:03
Jay Jaffe: Hey hey, folks. Welcome to another edition of my October chat. Forgive me for being a bit late and a bit frazzled. The impact of this crazy-ass postseason on the Jaffe-Span household — late nights and an accommodating but not entirely unforgiving 2-year-old — is taking its toll. We’ll see if I can give you a few good innings, though.
12:03
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Two teams are a win away from the World Series. Which is more likely to choke?
12:06
Jay Jaffe: I don’t think you can throw a choke label on a team up 3-2 losing the final two games on the road in the same way that you could with regards to a team up 3-1 with the cushion of going home even if they lose Game 5.

But I’m not really a fan of the term “choke” in general. These are four excellent teams with strengths and weaknesses and very skilled players who nonetheless have their vulnerabilities. The routes they take may confuse us but I’ve seen enough baseball that no outcome from among the remaining series would surprise me.
12:07
stever20: why is Kershaw so hot and cold in the playoffs these last 3 years?  When he’s great like yesterday he’s great (1.13 ERA last 3 years).  When he’s bad, he’s awful(7.63 ERA last 3 years).
12:09
Jay Jaffe: Why does anyone have good days and bad days? How the hell does any pitcher survive throwing the ball hard a hundred or so times a night to various locations while avoiding discernable patterns against skilled hitters outfitted with incredible means of decoding those patterns?

Baseball is hard. That’s why Kershaw, Price and anybody else in October struggles at times.
12:09
Wes: Bregman or Benintendi over the next 10 years?

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The Fan Interference Call Was Probably Good

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October 18, 2018

Let’s just get this out of the way now: That sucked. I mean, the game between the Astros and Red Sox was great, and it couldn’t have ended in a more dramatic fashion, but ultimately, the Red Sox won by two runs. And, in the bottom of the first inning, a controversial call and replay review might well have cost the Astros two runs. Yes, you’re right, the game would’ve played out differently had that call been made differently. We have no idea what that alternate game would’ve looked like. But the Astros have been pushed to the brink now, and a two-run homer would’ve been a pretty big deal. No one ever wants to think a game and season were damaged by umpires. It’s a very unsatisfying kind of disappointment, when the outcomes aren’t solely determined by the players themselves.

I don’t think we’re ever going to know for sure whether the right call was made. As such, it’s the sort of thing that’s going to linger, at least if the Astros fail to advance. Immediately, this has turned into a great What If?, and a target of Astros fan rage. Yet having reviewed all the evidence, I’ve come to the conclusion the call was good. And by that I mean, I think it was more good than bad. In the absence of anything conclusive, some amount of mystery is everlasting. But if you are to render judgment, you go whichever way you’re leaning. I’m leaning toward fan interference.

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Job Posting: New York Yankees Baseball Operations

by
October 18, 2018

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.

Position: SQL Developer

Position Overview:
The New York Yankees organization is accepting applications for an experienced SQL developer in their Baseball Operations department. This position reports to their senior Baseball Operations executives and will assist in the development of database systems. Their goal is to integrate these systems with existing baseball analytics tools and web-applications as part of their player information and evaluation platform.

Primary Responsibilities:

  • Analyze business requirements and design reports using stored procedures to support Yankees front office baseball applications
  • Perform data integrity checks between systems to identify discrepancies
  • Set up ETL operations to import and normalize data from different data providers
  • Performance tuning of SQL objects and queries
  • Work with major and minor league pitch, hit and player tracking datasets, college and other amateur data, international baseball data, and many other baseball data sources

Qualifications and Experience:

  • Must have 3-5 years experience developing in T-SQL
  • Proven experience developing stored procedures, CRUD operations and advanced data manipulation skills with T-SQL (CTEs, pivots, temp tables, XML)
  • Ability to design and layout a database schema from scratch, including table objects, constraints, indexes, foreign keys, and triggers
  • Experience in ETL operations, specifically loading data via different techniques, including bulk loading using BCP operations
  • Experience performance tuning of queries and database objects, including things like table partitioning, index tuning, query hints, locking, schema normalization
  • Ability to utilize SQL Profiler and a thorough understanding of execution plans
  • Excellent communication and problem-solving skills – must be able to breakdown a complex task and put together an execution strategy with little guidance
  • Proven understanding of typical baseball data structures, basic and advanced baseball metrics, and knowledge of current baseball research areas

Job Questions:

  • How did you hear about this job?
  • Do you have 3+ years experience writing in T-SQL?
  • Describe techniques you have used for performing data loading operations.
  • How you would approach the identification of a performance issue in a SQL query?
  • Have you ever worked with any baseball datasets before? If so, please describe which ones and how you used them.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the following application.

Position: Web Application Developer

Primary Responsibilities:

  • Assist in the design and implementation of web-based tools and applications for senior baseball operations personnel
  • Migrate and adapt existing web applications for mobile devices and various hardware platforms
  • Interface with all departments within Baseball Operations (scouting, player development, coaching, analytics) to build tools and reporting capabilities to meet their needs
  • Work with major and minor league pitch, hit and player tracking datasets, college and other amateur data, international baseball data, and many other baseball data sources

Qualifications and Experience:

  • Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science or related field
  • 3-5 years experience with data-driven web application development using:
    • ASP.NET/C# using MVC and WebAPI
    • nHibernate or other O/R framework
    • AngularJS and Bootstrap
  • An understanding of CSS, cross-browser, and responsive web development, including a strong understanding of desktop vs. mobile UI/UX design techniques
  • Familiarity with Microsoft Visual Studio and source code management tools (Subversion, Git, TFS/VSS)
  • Proficient in SQL databases and various database design principles (Microsoft SQL Server a plus)
  • Knowledge of the software development lifecycle (requirements definition, design, development, testing, implementation, verification), Agile, and industry best practices
  • Excellent communication and problem solving skills – must be able to breakdown a complex task and put together an execution strategy with little guidance
  • An understanding of typical baseball data structures, basic and advanced baseball metrics, and knowledge of current baseball research areas a plus

Job Questions:

  • How did you hear about this job?
  • Do you have experience writing database-driven web applications, using ASP.Net/C#?
  • Describe one data-driven web application you’ve developed and how you’ve utilized ASP.NET/C# and an RDBMS in its development?
  • Do you have experience with AngularJS or other client-side Javascript framework?
  • List any active websites or mobile applications you have developed (and the technologies they use) that might showcase your work.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the following application.

Position: Data Engineer

Description:
The New York Yankees Baseball Operations department is accepting applications for an experienced data engineer with a focus on data quality analysis. This position reports to the senior Baseball Operations executives and will assist in the development and maintenance of the Yankees data processing pipelines.

Primary Responsibilities:

  • Prepare, clean, format analytical datasets for processing by data scientists
  • Become an expert in the team’s datasets, their strengths and weaknesses, and write code to pull and verify data in response to data scientist requests
  • Using R, visualize complex, multi-source data to pinpoint data quality issues
  • Build automated pipelines for processing and cleaning data
  • Conduct database feature engineering to support ongoing quantitative research
  • Work with developers to create and deploy systems for anomaly detection
  • Interface with data scientists, software developers, and other baseball operations staff as needed
  • Design department-wide principles and workflow for data quality management
  • Serve as the main point-of-contact for questions about data structures, definitions, and quality

Qualifications and Experience:

  • Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science or related field
  • 3+ years of experience developing in SQL (preferably T-SQL)
  • 2+ years of experience with data profiling, data modeling, and data pipeline development
  • 2+ years of experience developing in R (or a similar statistical programming language), including experience with data manipulation and visualization in that language
  • Ability to write succinct code with optimal performance and simplicity
  • Excellent communication and problem-solving skills – must be able to break down a complex task and put together an execution strategy with little guidance
  • An understanding of typical baseball data structures, basic and advanced baseball metrics, and knowledge of current baseball research areas

Job Questions:

  • How did you hear about this job?
  • Describe your experience writing in T-SQL.
  • Describe your experience writing in R. What packages do you use most?
  • Describe your experience with data engineering and the specific techniques you’ve used.
  • At a high-level, describe briefly what steps you would take to identify data biases or inconsistencies in an unfamiliar/new dataset?
  • Have you ever worked with baseball data sets before? If so, please describe which ones and how you used them.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the following application.

Position: Associate, Quantitative Analysis

Description:
This position is a rigorous 12-month program geared to prepare entry level candidates for a career within the Baseball Operations industry.

Responsibilities:

  • Assist in research and analysis of various baseball topics
  • Design, test and implement predictive models using advanced statistical techniques
  • Prepare, manage, and visualize large-scale data sets
  • Develop processes for monitoring and ensuring data quality across multiple data sources
  • Responsibilities may also include data collection and entry, running database queries and administrative tasks

Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree or higher in a Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science or related field required
  • Experience building predictive models, preferably in R
  • Computer programming experience
  • Experience using SQL
  • Familiarity with current baseball research
  • Understanding of fundamental concepts in statistics and probability

Job Questions:

  • How did you hear about this job?
  • When are you available to start?
  • What classes have you completed in math, statistics, probability, and/or computer science?
  • Describe any previous experience building statistical models.
  • Which programming languages are you proficient in and what is your preferred language? If applicable to the language, please describe any libraries/packages you use.
  • Describe any previous experience using SQL, if any.
  • Please list any previous baseball/softball experience. This can include playing experience, research experience, coaching experience, writing experience, and more.
  • Will you now or in the future need visa sponsorship status to lawfully work in the United States?

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the following application.

Position: Associate, Baseball Operations

Description:
This position is a rigorous 12-month program geared to prepare entry level candidates for a career within the Baseball Operations industry.

Responsibilities:

  • Coordinate and prepare advance scouting material for the New York Yankees
  • Support the Baseball Operations and Pro Scouting staffs with daily logistical tasks
  • Chart select games from video, as well as execute additional video projects
  • Introductory level player evaluation
  • Assist with various research tasks
  • Data collection and entry
  • Administrative tasks as assigned

Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree required
  • Experience working with BATS coaching system
  • Must be able to recognize pitch types and know how to score a baseball game
  • General understanding of MLB rules and regulations
  • Detail oriented and organized
  • Strong verbal communication and collaborative skills
  • Experience working with video and in baseball

Job Questions:

  • How did you hear about this job?
  • What is the earliest date that you are available to start the Associate program?
  • What are your favorite statistics for evaluating baseball players?
  • What are your favorite baseball-related websites, books, or podcasts?
  • Who do you think are the five best starting pitchers in MLB right now?
  • Do you have any previous baseball or softball experience? Please provide specific examples.
  • Will you now or in the future need visa sponsorship status to lawfully work in the United States?

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the following application.

These descriptions are intended to describe the type of work being performed by a person assigned to these positions. They are not an exhaustive list of all duties and responsibilities required by the employee. The New York Yankees is an Equal Opportunity Employer. The company is committed to the principles of equal employment opportunity for all employees and applicants for employment.


A Brief Survey of Postseason Paranoia

by
October 17, 2018

The story on the field is that we’ve got a couple of excellent league championship series. The story off the field has been different from that. Yesterday’s headline, from Danny Picard:

Metro Exclusive: Astros may have been cheating in Game 1 against Red Sox

This isn’t about a sunscreen or pine-tar thing. Teams don’t care about that, because their own players partake. This is about a sign-stealing thing. The Indians tipped off the Red Sox about an Astros employee with a camera by the dugout. It seems super suspicious. The Astros, for their part, have insisted the guy was there to make sure the opponent wasn’t cheating. It’s a weird and complicated story. There are other elements, as well, but I’m not going to get into them. Major League Baseball considers the matter closed. The league says it’s taken steps in the playoffs to try to make sure teams aren’t cheating via technology. You can believe they’re doing enough, or you can not believe it. I can’t pretend to have all the necessary information.

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Manny Machado Gets Dirty

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October 17, 2018

Last night, Manny Machado scored the decisive run in an extra-inning walkoff victory to tie the NLCS at two games a piece and put the Dodgers within two wins of the World Series. When discussing Machado and last night’s game, we’d ideally be focusing on his key hit, his smart and aggressive take of second base on a wild pitch, and his impressive dash from second to home on a single to right field that barely beat a strong throw from Christian Yelich.

We aren’t talking about that, though. We’re talking instead about a play in the 10th inning of last night’s game on which Manny Machado made contact with Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar:

In real time, it looked really awkward, but not necessarily malicious. After the game, the Brewers said the play was dirty or insinuated as such by questioning Machado’s general attitude about playing hard. From the MLB.com story:

“It’s a dirty play by a dirty player,” Brewers right fielder Christian Yelich said.

“It looked like it,” Aguilar said. “I’ve known Manny for many years and I don’t know why he would act like that.”

Brewers manager Craig Counsell threw shade at Machado when asked if the play went beyond the grounds of hard play.

“I don’t know,” he said. “I guess they got tangled up at first base. I don’t think he’s playing all that hard.”

Machado didn’t really back down either:

“If that’s dirty, that’s dirty,” Machado said. “I don’t know, call it what you want. I play baseball. I try to go out there and win for my team. If that’s their comments, that’s their comments. I can’t do nothing about that.”

Let’s start by giving Machado the benefit of the doubt and assume, for sake of argument, that it was just a weird play. In that spirit, let’s take a few closer looks at it to see what kind of determinations we might be able to make. Here’s another angle from directly behind Machado.

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Jose Reyes Has Been Honored for His Off-Field Behavior

by
October 17, 2018

Known primarily for his work as the former executive director of the MLBPA, Marvin Miller was an NYU-educated economist by training. His efforts as union head eventually led to the elimination of the reserve clause and start of free agency for MLB players. It was Miller who negotiated the players’ very first collective bargaining agreement, brought arbitration to professional sports, and did all of this despite contending with anti-semitism from the team owners on the other side of the bargaining table and a disability leaving him with limited use of his right arm. Miller was called by Hank Aaron “as important to the history of baseball as Jackie Robinson.”

In light of Miller’s relevance to the livelihoods of its members, it’s not surprising that the MLBPA makes some effort not only to preserve his legacy but also to honor those who continue it. To that end, the union gives an award every year for off-field service and community leadership. The Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award, started in 1997 and rebooted in 2000, is considered “one of baseball’s top honors[.]” The award is based on popular vote by the players, with the recipient being the teammate whom the voters “most respect based on his leadership on the field and in the community.” Each team has its own top vote-getter honored by the MLBPA.

In 2017, the list of top vote-getters contained an impressive collection of players notable not just for their exploits on the field, but for their charity work off of it, as well.

Among [2017]’s nominees are players involved in providing clean water and other necessities to poverty-stricken villages in remote parts of the world, supporting the needs of servicemen and women and their families, building schools, ensuring clothing and meals for inner-city poor,  raising funds for research and respite to cancer victims and their families,  rescuing abandoned and mistreated animals,  and sending truckloads of emergency supplies to victims of natural disasters.

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