I don’t know if Charlie Blackmon is baseball’s most underrated player. Probably not. There are a lot of very good players. But just in case you don’t know exactly what’s up: Last season, Blackmon finished ninth among position players in WAR. Over the past three seasons, Blackmon has ranked 22nd, between George Springer and Kyle Seager. Blackmon is a center fielder who just finished with a top-30 expected wOBA. The year before that, he was in the top 40. Charlie Blackmon is very good, and, depending on your own personal thresholds, you might well say that Charlie Blackmon is great. He’s been lined up to be a part of the upcoming massive free-agent market.

But Blackmon has decided to take himself off the market entirely. Or, the team and the agency have decided, with Blackmon’s final approval. You don’t often see premium free agents sign extensions so close to the end of a contract, but Blackmon has agreed to an extra five years with the Rockies, with a $94-million guarantee. It’s more complicated than that, but the take-home point is that Blackmon is going to stick around in Colorado. Clearly, he’s fond of it there, and he’d hardly be the first player to decide that free agency appears less appealing than it used to.

Read the rest of this entry »

Adjectives like “impossible” and “improbable” and “unbelievable” are used quite liberally in sports broadcasting and writing — perhaps misused, even.

A walk-off win is not unbelievable; it happens semi-regularly. Likewise, winning a championship is not technically impossible for most teams (even if 11 clubs have a 0% chance of winning the World Series according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds). Nevertheless, people respond to narratives, and the overcoming-all-odds story is a popular one.

While we should employ such descriptors more sparingly, what Edwin Encarnacion did Monday night truly bordered on the improbable and impossible without sliding into hyperbole.

You’re probably aware that he hit an inside-the-park home run. While three 34-year-olds have hit inside-the-park homers since 2012 — David DeJesus, Jimmy Rollins, and Jason Bourgeois — Encarnacion is the oldest to do so in at least the past six seasons.

Here’s the video evidence:

https://gfycat.com/IdenticalBrownKookaburra

Encarnacion is not exactly fleet of foot. He’s a DH who was born in 1983. Encarnacion (25.6 feet per second) ranked 420th out of 465 MLB players in Sprint Speed last season, according to Baseball Savant’s leaderboard.

Read the rest of this entry »

We haven’t written very much about Jakob Junis. And that much makes sense — he hasn’t been in the majors very long, and it’s not like he’s broken any records. He plays for a team that isn’t that great, and he only found his groove last season down the stretch. Junis has never been a top prospect, and he was drafted in the 29th round. He doesn’t throw with eye-popping velocity, and he doesn’t rack up a boatload of strikeouts. Junis has done little to call attention to himself. Baseball analysts have done little to call attention to Jakob Junis.

I had a note by my computer to write about Junis all offseason long. I never did it. The timing never felt right. It feels better now, after Junis shut down the Tigers’ offense on Tuesday. It was cold, and, it was the Tigers, and the Tigers are bad. It’s not as if Junis went out and blanked the Astros. But he still spun seven shutout innings, with six strikeouts, and he threw 71% of his pitches for strikes. We’re talking about Jakob Junis now. And if you’re going to talk about Jakob Junis, you’re going to talk about his breaking ball. I’ve prepared plenty of clips from Tuesday’s outing. Just look at this stupid breaking ball.

Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a slider in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In the second installment of this series — Part 1 can be found here — we’ll hear from three pitchers — Kyle Freeland, Jim Johnson, and Kris Medlen — on how they learned and/or developed a specific pitch.

———

Kyle Freeland (Rockies) on His Changeup

“I never really threw a changeup in college. When I got into pro ball, that was our main focus to help me develop throughout the minors and get to this point. We had to find a grip that I was comfortable enough with to throw it in any count.

“It took some time. I probably went through half a dozen different grips before I finally found one that fits me, that works with my arm slot and my arm speed. It wasn’t until the end of last season that I finally found what I think works best. I had one that was working well for awhile, but it kind of tapered off. I wasn’t really comfortable throwing it off my ring finger and my pinky finger. Read the rest of this entry »

The trend in baseball is unmistakably one towards shorter starts. Pitchers compiled the fewest complete games in major-league history last year. That beat a record-low mark set the previous season, which itself had beaten a record-low established the year before that. Relievers are throwing a higher percentage of innings the ever before. Starters are, by definition, throwing fewer. The 200-inning starter is disappearing.

If his actions from this past weekend are any indication, Minnesota’s Jose Berrios seems not to care for this development. On Sunday, the young right-hander pitched a shutout, going the full nine innings while fanning six batters and conceding just three hits — and only of them prior to the ninth inning. (I’m not sure if I’m obligated to mention the Chance Sisco bunt against the shift and Brian Dozier’s odd reaction, but please consider this parenthetical as fulfillment of that obligation.) For a Twins team hoping to repeat the successes of last season, a lot hinges on the success of Berrios. He and the team got off to an awfully good start in their series win over the Baltimore Orioles.

Before getting to Berrios’s start, here is another reminder about how the game of baseball has changed over the years, particularly when it comes to bullpen use and expectations for starting pitchers. The graph below shows the number of shutouts by year since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973.

Just 25 years ago, there was pretty close to a shutout per day during the MLB regular season. A combination of expansion and the PED era greatly increased the use of relief pitchers. Coupled with increased offense, it was incredibly difficult for a starter to navigate a full game without letting the opposition score. In the early part of the last decade, as scoring decreased, we would still see a shutout every two or three days. As offense has again risen the last few years, however, shutouts have dropped — to about one per week last season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

After a shaky spring, Shohei Ohtani was basically as advertised in his first start on the mound — which is remarkable, since he was essentially advertised as the best pitching prospect in nearly a decade.

In his debut, Ohtani maxed out at 99 mph on the fastball and averaged 97.8 mph on the same pitch while also showcasing a darting, 90 mph splitter and breaking ball. If Ohtani can approximate anything like the 19.6% swinging-strike rate of his debut and continue to exhibit solid command, he will be an ace in short order.

Ohtani’s fastball averaged 96.6 mph and 96.1 mph, respectively, his last two years in Japan. He posted 15.8% and 15.0% swinging-strike rates in his last two seasons in the NPB (his 2017 season was injury shortened). Our old friend Eno Sarris found that plate-discipline and batted-ball trends in the NPB and MLB are remarkably similar. While it’s often folly to draw too much upon small sample sizes in April, it would appear as though Ohtani has verified that his power stuff is real.

Ohtani did more verifying Tuesday.

Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Boston Red Sox. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

We’d also like to extend our condolences to the friends and family of the late Daniel Flores, as well as the Red Sox international scouting department. We were excited to watch Daniel play baseball and can’t imagine what those who anticipated watching him grow up have dealt with since his untimely passing.

If you were to look just at Chavis’s 2016 stats and with the knowledge that he was only a viable defensive fit at first base, you’d call him a non-prospect. This dip in production was brought about by a broken finger, and in 2017, Chavis was back to taking monster hacks that produce comfortably plus raw power. He’s going to strike out, and he isn’t especially patient, but he has a good chance to get to most of that power and do enough damage to profile at first base. Chavis has the arm for third base but lacks the horizontal mobility to profile there in a vacuum. Boston has shown a willingness to put up with less lateral range on their infield, but a left side of the infield which features Chavis and Xander Bogaerts together is probably too heavy-footed for comfort, even with proactive defensive positioning. Chavis projects to first base and has dealt with an oblique injury this spring.

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t know if you just watched the Royals and the Tigers. Probably not. Neither team is very good. The Royals won 1-0. Jakob Junis was terrific. The teams combined for just eight hits, and seven of them were singles. Somewhat more notably, the teams combined for a ground-ball rate of 32%. The average launch angle in the game, according to Baseball Savant, was a hair over 22 degrees. What does it mean? By itself, hardly anything. The game, however, was not by itself.

Nothing that follows ought to come as much of a surprise. We’ve been talking about air balls and launch angle for a couple of years. It’s not just fan sentiment, either; we know that more and more players are buying in. And, based on the data from this most recent spring training, it seemed as if something was going to happen. More balls were being hit in the air in the spring, suggesting we could see the same when the games started to count. There have been hints. We know that hitters are less fond of grounders than ever.

Even so, I didn’t expect quite the numbers we have. You don’t need to remind me of how early it is. Yet, already, there’s evidence of a significant batted-ball shift.

Read the rest of this entry »

With this generation’s Mariano Rivera on the mound last night in Arizona, and the Dodgers holding a three-run lead in the ninth, the game was over, right?

baseball: there are two outs, the Dodgers are up three runs, and Kenley Jansen is on the mound. the game is over

also baseball: nah pic.twitter.com/538JZnNCTe

— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) April 3, 2018

Well, it’s baseball and Chris Owings had other ideas.

https://gfycat.com/ForsakenCleanAlbacoretuna

Yes, it’s really early. Alarm on April 2nd is often folly. Perhaps we will look back and laugh at all this hand-wringing. But Kenley Jansen has not looked like Kenley Jansen. And unlike a batter off to a slow start, a pitcher who has a velocity decline, who has changed his release point, who seems defensive in fielding questions this early — that all combines to raise some legitimate alarm.

Jansen didn’t walk a batter until June 25th last season. He began last season by striking out 51 batters without issuing a walk, setting an MLB record. Jansen has already conceded two walks, recording no strikeouts. Jansen allowed five home runs in the 2017 campaign. He’s allowed two in two innings this season.

Jansen seemed invincible for much of 2017, so he’s provided a dramatic contrast early this year. When a pitcher that untouchable struggles to such a degree — even in a small sample — it raises reasonable questions.

Jansen is regarded by many as the best reliever in the NL, an opinion supported by FanGraphs’ projections. So what’s going on here?

Let’s start with the velocity.

Read the rest of this entry »