The Walker Buehler Gambit

Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, the Dodgers originally had Walker Buehler scheduled to start Sunday. Manager Dave Roberts opted to push Buehler back, however, letting Rich Hill take the mound against the Giants in San Francisco.

The team indicated the move was based partially on the Nationals’ decision not to pitch Max Scherzer against the Rockies on Sunday. Regardless of whether Scherzer was starting, however, the choice made a lot of sense. The Dodgers did not control their own destiny in yesterday’s matchups. Even if they won (which is what happened), they would inevitably have to play another game to reach the divisional series (which is what they’re doing this afternoon). Letting Buehler start a less important game would have left the team worse off in a more consequential one, like today’s.

The decision is predicated on the belief that Buehler is one of the best, if not the best, Dodger pitcher at the moment. It’s not particularly difficult to make that case. For the season, Buehler’s 2.99 FIP leads the Dodgers; his 2.76 ERA is virtually even with Clayton Kershaw’s 2.73 mark. Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 1.97 ERA in just under 100 innings with a FIP right at 3.00, so he’s certainly part of the conversation, as well. Buehler has been roughly as good (if not better) in the second half as the first, recording a 2.96 FIP and 2.20 ERA since the All-Star break. Kershaw and Hill have been close — as has Ryu in nine starts. In September, though, nobody can touch Buehler’s 2.30 FIP. Kershaw has slowed some (4.32 FIP), while Hill (3.36) and Ryu (2.76) have pitched well, just not as well as Buehler.

With Ryu and Kershaw having started Friday and Saturday, they weren’t going to be available Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday, so flipping Buehler and Hill meant the 24-year-old rookie would be pitching in a game which, with a Dodger victory, would advance them directly to the division series.

That raises a question, however: by the logic employed above, wouldn’t it make sense to save Buehler for a hypothetical Wild Card game, with a view to saving the team from possible elimination? The short answer is, “No.” The longer answer is below.

Read the rest of this entry »


Game 163s Live Chat Jubilee Event

12:49
Craig Edwards: Hello everyone. Chat/Live Blog to begin shortly. Feel free to load up the queue.

12:50
Craig Edwards:

Who are you rooting for in the early game?

Brewers (75.6% | 267 votes)
 
Cubs (24.3% | 86 votes)
 

Total Votes: 353
12:55
Craig Edwards: Just so everyone is aware, the game is on ESPN, so plan accordingly.

12:58
Dave: Odds we see Josh Hader if the Brewers are down 3+?

12:58
Craig Edwards: 10%? If the team is down three, you are probably going to want multiple innings from him tomorrow, which would preclude an appearance today.

1:00
5 Run Homer: I’d just like to say that MLB is very rude for scheduling these games while I have assignments to do and classes to attend. Why can’t they cater to my specific needs?

Read the rest of this entry »


Team Entropy 2018: Let’s Play Two!

This is the seventh and final installment of this year’s Team Entropy series, my recurring look not only at the races for the remaining playoff spots but the potential for end-of-season chaos in the form of down-to-the-wire suspense and even tiebreakers. Ideally, we want more ties than the men’s department at Macy’s. If you’re new to this, please read the introduction here. And if you’ve been following along with this series, here and on Twitter, many thanks!

Pop the champagne! Team Entropy has done it — or rather the Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies have done it — producing an unprecedented level of end-of-season chaos in the form of two Game 163 tiebreaker games that will be played on Monday afternoon. The 1pm ET game between the Cubs and Brewers (both 95-67) in Chicago will decide the winner of the NL Central, which will also become the top seed in the NL; the loser will host the Wild Card game on Tuesday night. The 4pm ET game between the Dodgers and Rockies (both 91-71) in Los Angeles will decide the No. 2 seed in the NL, which will face the Braves (90-72) in the Division Series, while the loser will be the road team for the Wild Card game.

Before all of that transpires, it’s worth taking a moment to appreciate what just happened. The Cubs, who have held at least a share of first place in the NL Central since July 13 and had sole position from August 1 through September 28, had a 3.5-game lead on the Brewers as of September 18, but went just 6-5 thereafter, including Sunday’s win. The Brewers, who held a share of first place in the division for all but one day from May 13 to July 13, were six back as of August 28, before winning 22 of their final 29, including nine of their last 10 — and all of their final seven — to wind up tied.

Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/1/18

11:23

Kiley McDaniel: Apologies for the delay, ran late on a scout call

11:24

Kiley McDaniel: We’re chatting at this odd time since I’m traveling this week and we have day baseball today in 90 minutes

11:25

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been around instructs this week — ATL, DET, TOR, NYY, TB, BOS — and put out the most recent podcast last week: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…

11:25

Kiley McDaniel: we also have a new prospect land page where you can find all of our content: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

11:26

waks: does nick senzel’s bout of vertigo do anything to his projections? i forget how nick esasky dealt with it, but can it be a recurring thing?

11:26

Kiley McDaniel: don’t have a ton of experience with this in baseball, so we’re just assuming he returns back to where he was until there’s evidence to the contrary

Read the rest of this entry »


There Will Be Chats

In Canto IV of his Inferno, the poet Dante — led by other, more dead poet Virgil — enters a level of hell reserved predominantly for those people who had the misfortune of predating Christ. One can ask reasonable questions about the justice of this arrangement — is it the fault of Socrates, for example, that he was died before the arrival of an unborn prophet? — but neither Virgil nor Dante nor even the occupants of this region appear to be lodging any serious complaints.

While this intermediate state, known as Limbo, is technically situated within the first circle of hell, it doesn’t feature any of the punishments typically associated with the underworld. No fire or rivers of fire or anything involving fire, really. It’s mostly a bunch of guys sitting around.

Today, we find ourselves in a kind of baseball Limbo*, occupying a place on the schedule that’s technically situated within the regular season but possessing all trappings of a postseason game. It is very strange.

*It’s possible that Dante’s Purgatorio actually serves as a more apt metaphor for these Game 163s, but the author hasn’t read it and has no plans to do so for the moment.

Indeed, the purpose of post is less to meditate on the finer points of a long Italian poem and more to announce that a number of FanGraphs writers will be attempting to understand the strangeness of baseball Limbo in real time today during an extended “live chat” that will start around 1pm ET and continue for the duration of this afternoon’s divisional tiebreakers. Chats for the Wild Card games on Tuesday and Wednesday will follow, as well.

Here’s the playoff chat schedule for the next few days. Times in ET and presented in sophisticated 24-hour format. (Note: prospect and fantasy chats not included here.)

Monday
13:00 Game 163s Live Chat Jubilee

Tuesday
20:00 National League Wild Card Game

Wednesday
20:00 American League Wild Card Game


FanGraphs Audio: Jay Jaffe Wants All the Chaos Possible

Episode 837
Jay Jaffe is progenitor of the very famous JAWS metric and author of the reasonably famous The Cooperstown Casebook. On this edition of the program, he discusses his efforts — by means of his Team Entropy series — to documents the possible end-of-season scenarios that would require the greatest number of tiebreaking games and facilitate the greatest volume of disorder.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min play time.)

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Team Entropy 2018: It’s Alright Ma, It’s Only Seeding

This is the sixth installment of this year’s Team Entropy series, my recurring look not only at the races for the remaining playoff spots but the potential for end-of-season chaos in the form of down-to-the-wire suspense and even tiebreakers. Ideally, we want more ties than the men’s department at Macy’s. If you’re new to this, please read the introduction here.

We’re not quite to the promised land of Game 163 tiebreakers, but for the 14th time in 15 seasons, we’ve got playoff spots to be decided on the final day of the regular season, though the identities of all the participants are sewn up. Thanks to Saturday’s combination of outcomes, with the the Brewers gaining a game on the Cubs in the NL Central and the Dodgers doing the same to the Rockies in the NL West, the aforementioned divisions are tied, with the Central teams 94-67 and the West teams 90-71. The Cardinals, who had remained alive in the race for the second Wild Card spot, were eliminated from the picture despite beating the Cubs, because the Dodgers piled up a bunch of runs late to beat the Giants. We of Team Entropy thank them for their service, and look to the possibility of the first set of multiple tiebreaker games in MLB history.

It comes down to this:

• If the Brewers (who host the Tigers) and the Cubs (who host the Cardinals) match results — both winning or both losing — the two teams will square off in Chicago (which won the season series 11-8) on Monday for a Game 163 tiebreaker. The winner of that game wins the NL Central and thus claims the top seed in the Senior Circuit, while the loser hosts the Wild Card game on Tuesday.

• If the Rockies (who host the Nationals) and the Dodgers (who play the Giants in San Francisco) match results — again, both winning or both losing — the two teams will meet in Los Angeles (which won the season series 12-7) on Monday for a Game 163 tiebreaker as well. The victor wins the NL West and faces the Braves (also 90-71) in the Division Series, while the loser will be the road team in the Wild Card game. The seeding regarding the division winner and the Braves is at also stake, but both NL West teams have the tiebreaker on Atlanta by dint of winning their season series 5-2.

If either of these scenarios comes to fruition, we’ll have the first tiebreaker game in MLB since 2013, when the Rays beat the Rangers to become the second AL Wild Card team, and if both happen, again, history! All of Sunday’s relevant games — in fact, the entire slate of 15 games — are set to begin at 3:05 pm Eastern, so that no team has an advantage in scoreboard watching.

If you’re wondering about pitching matchups, here’s what’s going down. In Milwaukee, the Brewers are starting August 31 acquisition Gio Gonzalez, with the Tigers countering with rookie Spencer Turnbull. In Chicago, the Cubs are starting Mike Montgomery while the Cardinals are going with Jack Flaherty, who has earned Rookie of the Year consideration (but isn’t likely to beat out Juan Soto or Ronald Acuña). In Denver, the Rockies are going with Tyler Anderson, while the Nationals have opted not to pitch Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer, instead tabbing the much less imposing Erick Fedde. In San Francisco, the Dodgers have decided to save hotshot rookie Walker Buehler for a potential tiebreaker or Wild Card game and instead go with Dick Mountain, er, Rich Hill to counter the Giants’ Andrew Suárez.

Charge up those devices and pile up those screens, because you’ll need multiple ones to follow along!


Sunday Notes: Josh James Is More Than a Fringe Five Favorite

Josh James has been a Fringe Five favorite this season. He’s also been a shooting star. The 25-year-old hurler began the year in Double-A, and he’s finishing it with aplomb in Houston. Since debuting with the Astros on September 1, James has punched out 27 batters, and allowed just 14 hits and six runs, in 21 innings of work.

His ascent has come as a surprise. A 34th-round pick out of Western Oklahoma State University in 2014, James went unmentioned in our preseason Astros Top Prospects list (ergo his eligibility to take up residence in the aforementioned Carson Cistulli column).

Every bit as surprising was the righty’s response when I asked him how he goes about attacking hitters.

“To be honest, I’m still trying to figure that out,” James told me on the heels of his rock-solid MLB debut. “A couple of years ago I was a low-90s guy and mixed up pitches. I’d throw curveballs in 0-0 counts, work backwards. All that stuff. Now the velo is up a little higher, so I can throw more fastballs and attack the zone a little more.”

The velocity jump is real. James’ four-seam heater has averaged a tick over 97 MPH since his call up, and he’s been told that he touched 101 earlier this summer. Getting a good night’s sleep has helped breathe more life into his arsenal. Read the rest of this entry »


Team Entropy 2018: Extra Baseball?

This is the fifth installment of this year’s Team Entropy series, my recurring look not only at the races for the remaining playoff spots but the potential for end-of-season chaos in the form of down-to-the-wire suspense and even tiebreakers. Ideally, we want more ties than the men’s department at Macy’s. If you’re new to this, please read the introduction here.

In the National League playoff picture, we’re down to two teams — the Dodgers (89-71) and Cardinals (87-73) — fighting for one spot, as the Rockies (90-70) clinched a postseason berth on Friday night by beating the Nationals for their eighth straight win. That said, neither the NL Central nor the NL West races have been decided, nor have the actual Wild Card game participants, leaving open the possibility that we could have multiple Game 163 tiebreakers on Monday. The dream scenario of needing a third tiebreaker game, in the event that the two NL West participants (the Dodgers and Rockies) finished tied with St. Louis, is off the table given the Cardinals’ back-to-back losses to the Brewers (93-67) and Cubs (94-66).

On Friday afternoon, I had the privilege of appearing on MLB Network’s MLB Now, where host Brian Kenny put the spotlight on Team Entropy at the top of the show and allowed me to talk through the various scenarios:

Pretty cool! Except that the Cardinals were busy getting pummeled by the Cubs as that happened — the show kept cutting away to the action — simplifying the picture somewhat. So here is what’s left…

The Cubs, who are hosting the Cardinals, and the Brewers, who are hosting the Tigers, can still finish in a tie after 162 games if Milwaukee can pick up a game this weekend. Either the Brew Crew goes 2-0 while the Cubs go 1-1, or 1-1 while the Cubs go 0-2. That would leave the two teams playing on Monday in Chicago (which won the season series 11-8) to determine which one wins the division, and which hosts the Wild Card game. As of Saturday morning, our playoff odds ties page shows a 25.9% chance of such an occurrence.

Likewise, the Rockies, who are hosting the Nationals, and the Dodgers, who are visiting the Giants, can finish tied if Los Angeles can pick up a game. The Dodgers, who won the season series 12-7, would host a tiebreaker game on Monday to determine the division winner, and second Wild Card team. Our ties page gives this game a 34.1% chance of happening.

Alternately, if the Cardinals win both of their remaining games and the Dodgers lose both of theirs, the two teams would be tied for the second Wild Card spot. They would play on Monday in St. Louis, which won the season series 4-3. This scenario can happen in tandem with an NL Central tie if the Brewers also split their remaining pair of games. The odds of a Wild Card tie are down to 2.4%, but that’s better than nothing, particularly with a second tiebreaker game also still an option.

With the Cubs and Cardinals playing at 1:05 pm Eastern, the Dodgers and Giants at 4:05, the Brewers and Tigers at 7:05 pm and the Rockies and Nationals at 8:10 pm, we have the whole day to savor the possibilities for chaos. Enjoy!


Effectively Wild Episode 1276: Reviewing the Regular Season

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the MVP races, the definition of value, Jacob deGrom, and Christian Yelich, plus an investigation into teams’ international practices, CC Sabathia’s costly hit by pitch, whether steroids were really responsible for steroid-era home run rates, and (don’t worry) Willians Astudillo. Then they review the 2018 regular season, including their favorite moments, the biggest ways baseball changed, what they learned about Mike Trout, how preseason narratives held up, teams that raised or lowered their stock the most, and the articles they most regret writing.

Audio intro: Super Furry Animals, "It’s Not the End of the World?"
Audio outro: Guided By Voices, "When We All Hold Hands at the End of the World"

Link to Sabathia HBP video
Link to Jeff Passan’s report
Link to Ben’s steroid era article
Link to Melisa Reidy-Russell comments

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