Each week, we publish in the neighborhood of 75 articles across our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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The Dodgers have not gotten off to the start they would have liked this season. Failing to win even half their games, they’ve seen the Diamondbacks parlay a strong first month into a place atop the NL West standings. The combination of those two developments has allowed the D-backs to turn the Dodgers’ projected 14-game divisional edge at the beginning of the season into a complete tossup.
Injury has played a part in LA’s struggles. The club, of course, recently learned that star shortstop Corey Seager would miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery. In addition to Seager, Logan Forsythe, Yasiel Puig, and Justin Turner have all missed time, as well. Despite all that, however, Dodgers position players rank third among NL teams in WAR. The Dodgers’ depth in the lineup has thus far passed the test.
For much of the the season’s first month, the club’s rotational depth hasn’t been tested in the same way. It’s about to be, however. And a good season out of prospect Walker Buehler — once a luxury in the organizational depth chart — could be necessary for the team to overtake the Diamondbacks in the division.
Before the season started, the Dodgers opted to get under the competitive balance tax to save money. In doing so, they absorbed the contract of the thus-far resurgent Matt Kemp, sending Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy to Atlanta. Kazmir, since released by the Braves, was purely a salary dump, but McCarthy represented some depth for a Dodgers’ rotation that already had quite a few arms. Walker Buehler was foremost among that depth, but after pitching around 100 innings last year in his return from Tommy John surgery, he might have to blow past that mark this year to keep the Dodgers in the race.
One of the great questions about Kris Bryant early in his career — actually, one of the only questions — was if he would make enough contact to become an impact player.
He struck out in 30.6% of his plate appearances as a rookie in 2015 and had K’d in at least a quarter of his plate appearances in stops at High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A as arguably the game’s top prospect.
There was no doubt about his power. Bryant crushed ball after ball out of Cactus League stadiums in the spring of 2015, creating a stir about just how the Cubs could justify keeping him off their Opening Day roster. The home run played a large part in his Rookie of the Year and MVP campaigns in 2015 and 2016.
But early this season, accelerating what was a gradual trend, Bryant has made a remarkable change, having recorded a better-than-average strikeout rate. Is it possible that Kris Bryant is now contact hitter?
The Mets may have dodged a bullet, or they may have experienced their most Mets-like moment of the 2018 season — with that franchise, you can never be sure. On Wednesday night at Citi Field against the Braves, after he was seen wincing during a third-inning swing of the bat and again following a fourth-inning pitch, Jacob deGrom departed with what was soon characterized as a hyperextended right elbow. The good news, revealed in manager Mickey Callaway’s Thursday morning press conference, is that a postgame MRI revealed no structural damage to the elbow. No torn ligaments, in other words. Whew.
https://gfycat.com/MiserableAgileKillerwhale
Nonetheless, almost immediately, confusion reigned in Queens. The New York Daily News‘ Kristie Ackert initially reported that, via Mets sources, deGrom “is expected to miss at least four starts with the hyperextended elbow.” But shortly afterwards, multiple reporters tweeted that deGrom had been cleared to make his next start on Monday. Hardly the finest hour for a team that’s attempting to change its reputation for turning injury management into a punchline.
As Ackert later explained, “I was told by sources there was a much bleaker outlook on deGrom earlier this morning. I reported what I was told, my bad. The #mets are cautiously optimistic he will make his next start and so is deGrom.” SNY’s Andy Martino bolstered that account by saying that sources told him that the team would prepare deGrom but “haven’t made any decision to scratch him yet.”
| 9:05 |
: Hello friends |
| 9:05 |
: Welcome to Friday baseball chat |
| 9:05 |
: Hello, Jeff. Thank you for chatting. |
| 9:06 |
: Hello john. Thank you for chatting, because without any of you, this would be pathetic |
| 9:06 |
: You have to tell me what is going on with Nick Markakis. He has the third highest WAR in the NL. |
| 9:06 |
: You can never really dig too deep on these things in a live-chat format, but Markakis has such a fun profile right now |
Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.
The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.
Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels, and (most importantly) FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel* and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated, midseason-type list will also be excluded from eligibility.
*Note: I’ve excluded Baseball America’s list this year not due to any complaints with their coverage, but simply because said list is now behind a paywall.
For those interested in learning how Fringe Five players have fared at the major-league level, this somewhat recent post offers that kind of information. The short answer: better than a reasonable person would have have expected. In the final analysis, though, the basic idea here is to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.
Austin Davidson, 2B, Washington (Profile)
For some time, Davidson has been among that class of players perpetually in contention for a place among the Five. He earned a couple of appearances here back in 2016 on the strength of some impressive batting indicators and, it seemed, sufficient defensive skill to remain on the infield. He was absent all last year, though — not because his profile changed (it didn’t) but because his own organization seemed reluctant to advance him through the system. Indeed, Davidson passed the entirety of his 2017 campaign as a 24-year-old in the Carolina League. That is not typically line item found on the resumes of major leaguers.
In an even less inspiring development, Davidson opened this year at High-A Potomac, as well. An impressive start to the season, however, earned him a promotion to Double-A, where he has recorded walk and strikeout rates of 13.9% and 16.7%, respectively, while producing a .290 isolated-power mark — or more than double the league average of .128.
Here’s what a home run by Davidson looks like on a dreary day in Trenton and also you got seats just to the third-base side of home plate:
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All the numbered prospects here also appear on THE BOARD, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. Click here to visit THE BOARD.
| Rk | Name | Age | High Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin Perez | 20 | AA | RHP | 2021 | 50 |
| 2 | Beau Burrows | 21 | AA | RHP | 2019 | 50 |
| 3 | Christin Stewart | 24 | AAA | DH | 2019 | 50 |
| 4 | Matt Manning | 20 | A | RHP | 2022 | 50 |
| 5 | Jake Rogers | 22 | AA | C | 2020 | 45 |
| 6 | Derek Hill | 22 | A+ | CF | 2021 | 45 |
| 7 | Daz Cameron | 21 | A+ | CF | 2021 | 45 |
| 8 | Mike Gerber | 25 | MLB | RF | 2018 | 45 |
| 9 | Isaac Paredes | 19 | A+ | SS | 2021 | 45 |
| 10 | Dawel Lugo | 23 | AAA | 2B | 2019 | 45 |
| 11 | Gregory Soto | 23 | A+ | LHP | 2021 | 45 |
| 12 | Kyle Funkhouser | 24 | AA | RHP | 2019 | 45 |
| 13 | Alex Faedo | 22 | A+ | RHP | 2020 | 45 |
| 14 | Bryan Garcia | 22 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 45 |
| 15 | Sergio Alcantara | 21 | AA | SS | 2019 | 40 |
| 16 | Anthony Castro | 22 | A+ | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 17 | Elvin Rodriguez | 20 | A | RHP | 2022 | 40 |
| 18 | Jason Foley | 22 | A+ | RHP | 2021 | 40 |
| 19 | Gerson Moreno | 22 | AA | RHP | 2019 | 40 |
| 20 | Victor Reyes | 23 | MLB | OF | 2018 | 40 |
| 21 | Reynaldo Rivera | 20 | A | 1B | 2022 | 40 |
| 22 | Sam McMillan | 19 | R | C | 2023 | 40 |
| 23 | Spencer Turnbull | 25 | AA | RHP | 2018 | 40 |
| 24 | Matt Hall | 24 | AA | LHP | 2019 | 40 |
50 FV Prospects
| Age | 20 | Height | 6’3 | Weight | 197 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55/60 | 45/50 | 50/55 | 50/60 | 45/50 |
Acquired from Houston as part of the return for Justin Verlander, Perez has advanced command of a four-pitch mix that enabled him to reach Double-A at age 19. He’ll likely have a plus fastball and changeup at peak, while his breaking balls are still works in progress but promising.
You could almost be convinced that hitting is easy. Or, at least, you could almost be convinced that getting better at hitting is easy. What can a hitter do to improve in this day and age? Aim up. Try to hit the ball in the air. Elevate and celebrate, and everything. So much contemporary analysis is built around identifying a player or players who are hitting more fly balls than they used to. And, without question, for some players, this has been the key. For some players, aiming up has unlocked potential that could never get out. Especially in the era of aggressive infield shifts, a ball in the air is more valuable than a ball on the ground.
But the important equation isn’t so simple. We went through the opposite of this 10 or 15 years ago. There was a time when we all fell in love with ground-ball pitchers, because, after all, grounders can’t be homers. But there are processes that lead to someone getting grounders, and there are processes that lead to someone getting flies, and fly-ball pitchers have their own upsides. Moving to the present, with hitters, it’s not about whether a fly is better than a grounder. It’s about the swing. What specific kind of swing can allow a hitter to become his best self, overall?
The answer isn’t the same for everyone. The answer could never be the same for everyone. Some hitters, for sure, have gotten better by steepening their swing paths. Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson are two hitters attempting the opposite.
Location: Detroit, MI
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Ben Lindbergh, Jeff Sullivan, and ESPN’s Sam Miller banter about James Paxton’s 16-strikeout start and the elusive 21-strikeout game, why no-hitters are becoming more common but are also endangered, how to familiarize oneself with newly minted major-league relievers, and Albert Pujols’s evaporating walk rate, then discuss Sam’s radical proposals to change baseball’s playoff format, playoff structure, and schedule.
Audio intro: The Flaming Lips, "Free Radicals"
Audio outro: The Bees, "Change Can Happen"
Link to Sam’s playoffs proposal
Link to Sam’s after-the-fact-payment proposal
Link to Sam’s bidding-for-home-games proposal
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