The free agencies and likely departures of Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas led most to believe that Kansas City was in for some kind of rebuild. It seemed likely than any such attempt at a rebuild would lead to major-league opportunities for upper-level prospects like Hunter Dozier, Samir Duenez, and Ryan O’Hearn and/or post-prospects like Cheslor Cuthbert and Raul Adalberto Mondesi to pass or fail the big-league test and establish themselves as Royals of the future.

For most of those players, such an opportunity is still likely to emerge. With the announcement on Friday, however, that Alcides Escobar would be returning to the Royals, the future for one of them has become less certain. The presence of Escobar and 2017 breakout Whit Merrifield raises immediate questions about Raul Mondesi’s prospects in Kansas City, as it appears his path to regular big-league playing time is once again blocked.

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The Giants have been one of the busier teams this offseason, wheeling and dealing their way to a markedly different roster in just a few months. Since December 15th alone, the club has traded away left-hander Matt Moore, a general disappointment in the 240 innings he had thrown for the Giants. They followed this up by acquiring two faces of their former franchises: Moore’s one-time Tampa Bay teammate Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen. The most recent deal has the Giants signing Austin Jackson for two years and $6 million to round out their starting outfield.

Or so it seemed.

Giants president of baseball operations Brian Sabean seemed to suggest otherwise recently, according to reports by Alex Pavlovic and John Shea.

“He’s certainly a viable option,” Sabean said of Jackson. “Did we get him to be our everyday center fielder? Probably not. I don’t know that in his recent history, he’s been able to go out there in that fashion.”

Sabean might not be wrong about Jackson. Even though he was an effective player from 2010 to -15, he turns 31 in a week and hit the disabled list twice last season. Jackson might be best relied on as a part-time player, albeit a very good one.

So were does that leave the Giants? They seem to be keeping an eye on the market for outfielders, probably with a view towards acquiring a cheap option somewhere along the line. This search, combined with their financial position, seems to leave the team focused on a particular goal in mind, one that fails to address one of their most glaring needs.

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Carlos Gonzalez picked the worst of times to produce one of the worst seasons of his career in 2017, recording just an 84 wRC+ in his final season with Colorado and an overall value beneath replacement level (-0.2 WAR). Gonzalez slashed .262/.339/.423 as a right fielder who played his home games a mile above sea level. Not great.

That poor chapter complete, Gonzalez is now entering his age-32 season and experiencing first hand a historically cold free-agent market.

Once viewed as a franchise cornerstone with an aesthetically pleasing swing, Gonzalez’s poor season probably saved some team from making a multi-year mistake this winter, a point made by Dave Cameron when ranking Gonzalez as the game’s No. 33 free agent.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Detroit’s collection of hitters doesn’t fair particularly well by the projections, nor is this particularly surprising: having finally embraced the notion of a rebuild, the club has spent the last six months divesting itself of all mildly attractive assets. Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton represented three-quarters of the team’s offensive core least year. They’ve all been traded since mid-July.

What remains is rather modest. Miguel Cabrera (526 PA, 2.0 zWAR) and Nick Castellanos (634, 2.3) receive the only projections of two or more wins. Designated hitter Victor Martinez (446, 0.3) is a replacement-level player. All other starters occupy a spot somewhere with that range. This is a below-average group.

That’s not to say there aren’t items of interest. Overall, the team is younger. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario (596, 1.7), acquired from the Cubs in the Justin Wilson trade, earns a nearly league-average forecast. Also, the club appears likely to field one of its best defenses for some time. Leonys Martin (507, 1.7) is projected for +9 runs in center field. Dixon Machado (496, 0.8) is a +4 shortstop playing second base. Miscast as a center fielder, Mikie Mahtook (428, 0.7) is probably an asset in left.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Padres’ social-media accounts getting hacked, Scott Boras’ “volcano” comment, Hall of Fame voting results, and Jeff’s article about batting practice, then answer listener emails about team construction and the wild card, consistency and Carlos Santana, the baseball equivalents of football’s recent Super Bowl staples, the decline and comeback of four-man rotations, a knuckleball hitter, three Mike Trout hypotheticals, baseball owners opening their books, and a change to free-agent eligibility, plus a Stat Blast on teams that have been better or worse than their underlying stats.

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Thursday’s Christian Yelich deal with Milwaukee netted Miami four prospects: OF Lewis Brinson, 2B Isan Diaz, OF Monte Harrison, and RHP Jordan Yamamoto. Full, deeper reports on each of these players is available on our Brewers pref list, but below are condensed summaries of each.

Lewis Brinson, CF (60 FV) – It’s important to note that Brinson opinions among scouts and executive vary pretty widely, especially for a player who has performed at the upper levels of the minors. Some people just don’t think he’s going to hit, but Brinson has made relevant swing adjustments multiple times as a pro and his strikeout rate has dropped every season. It’s been a very reasonable 20% over the last two years and he has monster complementary tools in plus power and plus speed.

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The most recent World Series, of course, was won by the Astros, and the previous World Series, of course, was won by the Cubs. Those teams have had the most successful examples of recent rebuilds, and although things don’t always go that well, the ideal rebuild goes through three phases. First, you tear down, exchanging shorter-term players for longer-term players. Then, you develop, with more talent accumulation along the way. Finally, there’s the push, the re-investment in trying to win. That’s when the rebuild is basically over. That’s when a team has climbed back in the race.

I don’t know what marked the Astros’ transition to phase three. Perhaps it was trading for Evan Gattis. Perhaps it was trading for Scott Kazmir, or for Carlos Gomez. On the Cubs’ side, there was the signing of Jon Lester, and there was the acquisition of Dexter Fowler. When the Astros and Cubs decided they were ready to win, the change was unmistakable. And now, hoping to follow in their footsteps, we have the Brewers. The Brewers have entered phase three.

To their credit, the Brewers didn’t let the process bottom out. After finishing above .500 in 2014, they spent just two years out of the hunt. Last season, they were an overachieving surprise. And now they’ve pulled off a major one-two punch. Thursday afternoon, they traded for Christian Yelich. Only a short time later, they signed Lorenzo Cain. Yelich cost four prospects. Cain got five years. But there’s no missing the message: The Brewers are ready.

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Two days ago, this author politely asked a major-league team — really any major-league team — to sign free-agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain. Tonight, Brewers general manager David Stearns and team ownership obliged.

This author — and others, too, including former FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron — tabbed Cain as the top value play in free agency, assuming the terms of his contract emerged as expected. The crowd and Dave each predicted a four-year, $68-million deal.

At a reported five years and $80 million, Cain is a bit less of a bargain than expected. There was no New Year’s discount for his services, for example. Nonetheless, the Brewers on Thursday night added two impact outfielders in Christian Yelich (about whom Jeff Sullivan is writing at this moment) and Cain, the top position-player free-agent available.

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Here’s a table! It includes every team in baseball, and it shows how many regular-season games each team has won over the past five years. The Dodgers have been very good. The Phillies have not. Come to FanGraphs.com for all of your groundbreaking baseball analysis.

Lately I’ve been thinking about a few different questions. The main thrust of one: Which team is best positioned to be good for a while? The main thrust of the other: Which team seems to be the most screwed? We all, I think, have our suspicions, and the first one has maybe been talked to death. I’m not sure. Situations are always changing. But I couldn’t quite think of the right way to approach the subjects. I’ve also known I’ve wanted to gauge community opinions. And so we come to this, which is just another FanGraphs community polling project. I think I’ve settled on an appropriate question.

Above, for every team, you see five-year win totals, through 2017. Below, there are 30 polls — one for each team — and I’m looking for your rough combined win projections for 2018 through 2022. It’s relatively easy to project one season ahead, but for these purposes, I don’t think that accomplishes enough. It asks a different question. By focusing on five years, instead of one, I’m not just asking about the strength of the current roster. It forces you to consider the front office, and the farm system, and the player development, and the overall resources. In theory, we could go beyond five years, but then it’s all effectively unknowable. I mean, even the fifth year is probably unknowable, but just give it your best shot, based on what you understand about your team. As always, I’ll do a follow-up analysis post, so that we can evaluate the whole spread of the landscape.

I recognize that these polling projects are usually easier. This one requires some basic math. For reference, an average of 81 wins over the next five years would yield a combined total of 405. An average of 90 wins over the next five years would yield a combined total of 450. An average of 75 wins over the next five years would yield a combined total of 375. Those might give you some useful targets. You can also refer to the table at the start. It’s not fun to have to do math just in order to respond to an internet poll, but I think the results of this could be really interesting. It’s a question we’re frequently thinking about, yet I’ve never polled in this way. Given sufficient participation, we can assess every team’s short- and medium-term strength in league context.

Thank you in advance for your help. I can’t wait to see what the numbers reveal.

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