Is it even necessary to go over the background? I will quickly go over the background. Back in 2014, there was mounting concern that baseball no longer featured enough offense. Pitching had taken over, and we saw run-scoring plummet. Strikeouts, as you know, have only continued to go up over time, but that’s been countered by a sudden spike in home runs. There were 723 more home runs in 2015 than there were in 2014. There were 701 more home runs in 2016 than there were in 2015. There were 495 more home runs in 2017 than there were in 2016. Compared to 2014, the number of home runs hit in 2017 was up by a staggering 46%. That’s what baseball became — a showcase for the three true outcomes. Strikeouts and homers were in.

The surge in power made some people happy. It made other people sad. The remaining people were indifferent observers of a changing game. No matter your opinion, we were all left to wonder: now what? Would the power surge continue? Would the ball continue to fly? Would more and more batters continue to swing up, enthusiastically trading contact for dingers? It’s easy to observe a trend that’s already in the books. It’s more difficult to know where it’s going. Most of the time, anyway.

And in this case, I’ve given it away with the headline. What’s become of the home-run spike in 2018? There’s been, to be sure, no shortage of dingers. But the home-run count isn’t going up. It’s actually taken a step backward. Whether it’s signal or whether it’s noise, the home-run spike isn’t spiking.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jonny Venters, Max Scherzer and immaculate innings, the futility of pitcher hitting in 2018, the NL’s encouraging interleague record, MLB buying Rawlings, the home-run rate, Ichiro throwing BP, Derek Dietrich’s dangerous juggling, and a world where Jerry Dipoto can trade draft picks. Then they bring on FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Dylan Higgins (20:46) to discuss some big storylines from the amateur draft, including Tigers top pick Casey Mize, the teams with the most at stake, the prevalence (or lack thereof) of two-way players, Yankees switch-everything draftee Anthony Seigler, Jordyn Adams, Kyler Murray, and baseball vs. football in the draft, Luke Heimlich, the role of data in the draft, social-media skeletons, the best draft names, a few favorite picks, and more. Then Ben wraps up with a few updates and news about an additional study about the baseball and home runs.

Audio intro: Everclear, "Out of My Depth"
Audio interstitial: Unlikely Friends, "Fifteen Rounds"
Audio outro: Harry Nilsson, "The Lottery Song"

Link to Ben’s pitcher hitting article
Link to Beth Davies-Stofka’s Baseball Prospectus article
Link to Meredith Wills’ baseball study

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Episode 818
Travis Sawchik, past author of one book and future author (with The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh) of another one, recently conducted an interview in the White Sox clubhouse with a player he assumed, for good reason, was Matt Davidson. Also addressed: the competitive advantage of a multipositional catcher and Sawchik’s interview with White Sox announcer Jason Benetti.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)

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The Dodgers are now back to having as many wins as losses. That’s not anything amazing — it has them tied with the Pirates — but as recently as May 16, the Dodgers were 16-26. Their most recent win was a five-run decision in Pittsburgh. Leading the way was Ross Stripling, who got the start and spun five shutout innings. He didn’t walk a batter, and he struck out seven. Back in March, the Dodgers wouldn’t have imagined they’d be here. Stripling’s start, though, was a representative one.

I’ve been on something of a Dodgers theme lately. That’s a coincidence, but then, the Dodgers’ early story is compelling. They haven’t gotten much from their supposed best players, and they’ve been lifted by a handful of surprises. The other day, I wrote about the surprising Max Muncy. Tuesday, I wrote about the surprising Matt Kemp. Now it’s time to write about the surprising Ross Stripling. When I woke up yesterday, Kemp was the Dodgers’ team leader in WAR. Stripling has now taken over the spot. Not bad for someone expected to pitch out of the bullpen.

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The use of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) is as old as baseball itself. Pud Galvin, a Hall of Famer no less, attempted to inject himself with testosterone extracted from animal testicles, which, eww. Specifically, Galvin’s 1889 cocktail consisted of this:

[S]ubcutaneous injections, of a liquid containing a very small quantity of water mixed with the three following parts: First, blood of the testicular veins; secondly, semen; and thirdly, juice extracted from a testicle, crushed immediately after it has been taken from a dog or a guinea-pig.

Notably, modern science suggests that Galvin’s “beverage” would have had no positive effect whatsoever.

Back in 2003, MLB conducted a series of tests to determine whether players were using PEDs — and, if so, how great the problem was. What happened is now a matter of record: David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez were among a group of over 100 players who tested positive and the purportedly confidential list got leaked. But as the debate over Ortiz’s Hall of Fame candidacy accelerates in earnest, it’s created a secondary debate over how much that 2003 test should count. As Joe Posnanski notes, the test was supposed to be secret. 

I’m not going to weigh in one way or another on Ortiz’s Hall candidacy; that’s Jay Jaffe’s job, and he does it well. What I am going to do, however, is shed some light on a slightly different but related question: as to those players who used anabolic steroids and other PEDs prior to the current testing and discipline scheme, was doing so illegal?

Let’s start by clarifying one point: MLB banned the use of anabolic steroids back in 1991, so technically anyone using anabolic steroids after that was violating those rules. But as we discussed in the context of footwear, MLB as an organization has to enforce its own rules, or it waives violations. And between 1991 and 2003, MLB didn’t really even test for steroids, so from a legal perspective, its ban probably wasn’t really worth more than the paper it was written on.

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It’s been a rough year for AL second basemen on the wrong side of 30. Robinson Cano, 35, was recently hit with an 80-game PED suspension. Dustin Pedroia, 34, played just three games last week before going back on the disabled list with inflammation in the same knee that had sidelined him for the season’s first two months. Jason Kipnis has played more like 41 years old than 31, and fellow 31-year-old Brian Dozier has been merely average. The oldest of them all, the soon-to-be 36-year-old Ian Kinsler, has been one of the majors’ worst. It’s increasingly possible that his days as a productive regular are over.

After homering just twice in the Angels’ first 54 games, Kinsler went yard three times in a five-game span from May 29 to June 2, going 11-for-20 in those games against the Tigers and Rangers — Kinsler’s two previous teams, incidentally, both in the bottom half of the league in terms of run prevention. Even with the aforementioned hot streak, however, the returns on Kinsler have been underwhelming. He entered Tuesday hitting just .212/.279/.348. Out of 85 AL batting-title qualifiers, his on-base percentage ranked 80th, his slugging percentage 78th, his 74 wRC+ 77th, with Pedroia fill-in Eduardo Nuñez, Kipnis, and the Tigers’ Dixon Machado the only AL second basemen below him in the last of those categories. Kinsler’s glove has been strong enough (5.3 UZR) to just push his value into the black.

When the Angels traded a pair of low-level prospects for Kinsler last December, it appeared to be a worthwhile gamble. The six players who had toiled at the keystone for their 2017 squad (Kaleb Cowart, Danny Espinosa, Nolan Fontana, Nick Franklin, Cliff Pennington, and Brandon Phillips) had combined for a league-worst 63 wRC+ at the position and just 0.2 WAR. Tellingly, that sextet has combined for all of 39 big league plate appearances this year. While Kinsler was coming off a career-worst season with the bat (.236/.313/.412, 91 WRC+), his typically solid baserunning (1.5 BsR) and fielding (7.8 UZR) boosted his value to 2.5 WAR, 12th in the majors at the position. With an $11 million salary in his final year before free agency, he seemed like both a solid stopgap and an upgrade at the same time.

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CLEVELAND — Josh Hader wasn’t first.

Andrew Miller was the first elite relief arm deployed in multi-inning, non-save, high-leverage situations — at least in the current version of the game. Chris Devenski has carved out a similar role in Houston, too.

But Hader is a trailblazing figure in his own right.

What’s a little different about Hader is that, unlike so many elite relievers, he is not a failed major-league starter. Unlike Miller, for example, he assumed a relief role immediately upon reaching the majors. And unlike, say, a David Price or Chris Sale — that is, other powerful left-handed starting prospects who debuted as relievers — Hader isn’t merely biding his time until a spot opens in the rotation. Hader does not just fill a need in the Brewers’ bullpen. Instead, the club feels he has real value there. And rather than fight against the role or eye a return to starting, Hader has embraced his work.

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Managing in the majors is different than managing in the minors. In the opinion of Brian Snitker, it’s a lot different. And he should know: prior to taking the helm in Atlanta in May 2016, Snitker skippered Braves farm clubs in Rookie ball, Low-A, High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. Interspersed with three stints as a big-league coach, he managed in the minor leagues for 20 seasons.

He’s proven to be more than capable at the highest level. Now in his second full season on the job, Snitker — a 62-year-old baseball lifer who has helped nurture countless careers — has his young Atlanta squad 11 games over .500 and in first place in the National League East.

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Brian Snitker: “Your daily norm isn’t close to the same in the major leagues as it is in the minor leagues. After I got this job, I remember telling my wife, ‘It’s like I can’t get there early enough to have any time for my myself. All I do is talk.’ I could probably change the hinges on the door once a week, because every time I turn around there’s either a player, a coach, a front-office person, medical staff, or a media person coming into my office and closing the door. You have a piece of everything that’s going on here. This is a lot more involved job than managing in the minor leagues ever was.

“I always loved having a relationship with the players in the minor leagues. I wanted to be invested in what they were doing. It’s a different relationship here, because these guys are grown men. They have families. In the minors, especially in the low minors, they’re getting their electricity cut off because they paid $300 for a pair of tennis shoes, or bought their girlfriend a dog, instead of paying their bills. You’re more of a father figure in the lower minor leagues.

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