We’ve been writing here — perhaps ad nauseum — about the changes the game is undergoing currently. The ball may be different, the launch angles may be changing, power is definitely up, and starting-pitcher innings are down. Are these fundamental changes, though? Is this a different game we’re watching than the ones our elders enjoyed? And if so, is it necessary to alter the way we think about building successful teams?

I thought it would be interesting, at last week’s Winter Meetings, to ask front-office members of all kinds if they thought the game had really changed. If so, I wondered, had these insiders changed the way they approach their jobs over the last few years? To get better answers, I asked most of these generous people to talk off the record — meaning, in some cases, I’m unable to reveal their particular roles.

These answers do run the gamut, and the sources are varied — from former players to former business-school graduates. In sum, the responses offer us a peek at a fundamental choice in front of every team-builder right now, the same choice, ironically, that players face every day — namely, is it time to adjust?

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About 13 months ago, just as everyone was preparing for Thanksgiving, the Mariners and Diamondbacks swung a borderline blockbuster. The big name going to Seattle was Jean Segura. The big name going to Arizona was Taijuan Walker. As the trade happened, both Dave and myself wrote about how, in the end, it could end up being the Mitch Haniger trade. All things considered, Haniger had a fairly successful 2017. There’s another player in there I’m starting to like, though, and, well, my apologies to Zac Curtis. It’s Ketel Marte. I’ve really come around on Ketel Marte.

Perhaps it’s my own fault for having underestimated his talent. In my defense, though, Marte was simply a much-improved player this past season. People have asked me several times in my chats who I think could be poised for a breakout 2018. As such, it’s long past time for me to explain why Marte has captured my attention. He could be part of the Diamondbacks core for a very long time.

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On Monday, the Red Sox agreed to terms with first baseman Mitch Moreland. It was meaningful news, for two reasons. One, this is the Red Sox we’re talking about, and it seems like everything the Red Sox do is always big news. But then, additionally, Moreland electing to re-sign would appear to take the Red Sox out of the running for free agent Eric Hosmer. And while I’m certainly not Hosmer’s agent, the market for his services apparently isn’t large.

It could get larger. Scott Boras will work hard to make it larger. It’s possible to see a team like, say, the Mets throwing their hat in the ring. Yet the Red Sox move increases the chances that Hosmer will stay in Kansas City. It also increases the chances that Hosmer will go to San Diego. The Padres, so far, have been the most closely-linked suitor. They seem deeply motivated to turn Hosmer into a part of their core. The Padres haven’t won more than 77 games since 2011.

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As Craig Edwards noted closer to the start of this offseason, the Phillies have a lot of money to spend. Edwards estimated that Philadelphia entered the winter with approximately $70 million in payroll space, trailing only a rebuilding Tigers club that is unlikely to invest as much in its major-league roster as in recent years. While the Phillies have also been in a rebuilding period in recent years, they believe they are on the ascent.

Earlier this offseason, I attempted to better understand when the Phillies might begin to spend and what type of spending might make sense in free agency for the club. While the Phillies are likely to keep significant spending power in reserve until next offseason to court the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, I thought some buying might make sense this offseason. Namely, this author thought it would behoove the club to target either some of the top free agents under 30 years old (like Tyler Chatwood, for example) and/or to explore two-year deals for talented arms like Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly — that is, pitchers coming off injury who wouldn’t benefit the club much in 2018 but could provide returns in 2019.

I closed with this:

The Phillies likely have their eye on spending next offseason, but there could be some opportunity this winter, too, for a team with about as much spending power as any club. At some point, they’ll need to use it.

Indeed, Philadelphia has started to use it considerable payroll space. They’ve just done it in a curious way.

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Episode 791
Both the guest and host on this edition of FanGraphs Audio attended last week’s Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida. What this episode does is mostly address the biggest deals from that strange event and also other matters, as well.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 48 min play time.)

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One of the changes to the most recent edition of the collective bargaining agreement between owners and players was the addition of a surcharge — a fancy way of referring to a second tax — to be levied upon those teams whose payrolls exceed the tax threshold by a certain amount. Specifically, teams that exceed the $197 million mark by $20-$40 million this season will be assessed a 12% surcharge. Clubs exceeding the threshold by $40 million or more, meanwhile, receive a 42.5% to 45.0% surcharge, depending upon whether a club is a multi-year taxpayer.

The surcharges occur on top of the luxury tax: 20% for a first-time payer, 30% for a second-time payer, and 50% for a third-time or greater offender.

Baseball essentially instituted a “soft” salary cap with the addition of the luxury tax, a vehicle adopted to curb spending at the top end of team payrolls, to protect owners from themselves. However, as I determined just before the Winter Meetings, that cap is becoming less soft and more rigid.

Baseball’s salary tax more and more resembles the NBA’s soft cap.

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The Dodgers made a big trade with the Braves over the weekend, and Jeff Sullivan did a great job of illustrating how, for Los Angeles, it mostly represented a trade of debt this season for debt next season. The deal allows the club to avoid the tax threshold for a year, resetting their penalty and allowing them (if they choose) to cross back over the threshold next year at less cost.

There’s certainly a reason they’d make that choice: next year’s offseason features a number of top free agents, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper chief among them. But we’re not done yet with the current offseason yet, and it’s an offseason following a World Series appearance for the Dodgers. What’s left for them to do? And what does Walker Buehler’s curveball have to do with it?

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As I noted in my post at the end of last week regarding Hall of Fame holdovers, the ballot is a bit of a mess right now. There are already seven players who’ve received at least 45% of the vote — generally a pretty good gauge of worthiness when it comes to the Hall — plus a handful of others (Larry Walker, in particular) who are lower on the ballot but deserve induction, as well.

Joining that group of deserving candidates this offseason is a collection of four additional players who merit a place in the Hall — as well as Omar Vizquel, who is getting a lot of votes in the early going. This year’s entries include one no-doubter (Chipper Jones), another who’s deserving and likely to earn induction on the strength of his offensive contributions (Jim Thome), and two more players who merit selection but whose case rests largely on defensive contributions (Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen).

Before we get to the contenders, let’s take a brief look at the players who’ve earned spots on the ballot with solid careers but lack much of a case for the Hall.

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