Effectively Wild Episode 1129: The Darvish Dodgers Difference

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the all-time leaders in WAR for two teams, what Yu Darvish has done differently with the Dodgers, and whether Carlos Correa or Corey Seager will have the more valuable career, then answer listener emails about home-field advantage in the playoffs, projecting (and learning from) Charlie Morton’s breakout, why baseball is in a high-BABIP era, whether fielders are getting better or worse, the golden age of interleague play, what we mean when we say “short series,” challengers to Jamie Moyer’s home runs allowed record, and more.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/27/17

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Longoria gets 10-5 rights next season. Does he get traded before then?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why he would. This being Tampa Bay, obviously there’s always the chance, but Longoria feels like a forever Ray

9:08
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What does Hensley Meulens need to do to get hired as a manager in one of the three current vacancies? I’d love him with the Nationals (though current front-runner Dave Martinez *feels* like a good fit as well).

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: This comment expresses a stronger feeling about a possible managerial candidate than I could personally ever imagine possessing

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Game Two Was Objectively, Historically Crazy

In terms of significant, game-changing moments, no World Series game in history compares to Wednesday night’s epic between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros. In the sixth inning, Corey Seager hit a two-run homer off of Justin Verlander to break a 1-1 tie. In the top of the ninth, Marwin Gonzalez hit a solo shot to tie the game 3-3. In the 10th, Jose Altuve broke the tie with a solo shot. In the bottom half of that same inning, Enrique Hernandez’s RBI single tied the game, and then in the top of the 11th, George Springer hit a two-run homer that would put the Astros up for good. Each of those five plays increased the scoring club’s chances victory by 25% according to Win Probability Added. That’s never happened before in a World Series game.

Since 2002, only one in three games have produced plays with at least one play with a WPA of .25 or greater. To put that in greater context, consider: there have been only 18 plays total this posteason that produced a WPA of .25 or greater.  Here they are, in order of impact on win probability:

Biggest Plays of 2017 Playoffs by WPA
GameDate Inning Outs PlayDesc HomeTeam AwayTeam WPA
10/25/2017 10 2 Enrique Hernandez singled to right (Grounder). Logan Forsythe scored. Enrique Hernandez advanced to 2B. Dodgers Astros .468
10/15/2017 9 2 Justin Turner homered (Fly). Yasiel Puig scored. Chris Taylor scored. Dodgers Cubs .394
10/7/2017 8 1 Bryce Harper homered (Fly). Victor Robles scored. Nationals Cubs .388
10/14/2017 9 1 Carlos Correa doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Jose Altuve scored. Astros Yankees .369
10/25/2017 9 0 Marwin Gonzalez homered (Fliner (Fly)). Dodgers Astros .350
10/25/2017 10 0 Jose Altuve homered (Fliner (Fly)). Dodgers Astros .350
10/24/2017 6 2 Justin Turner homered (Fly). Chris Taylor scored. Dodgers Astros .306
10/25/2017 6 2 Corey Seager homered (Fly). Chris Taylor scored. Dodgers Astros .306
10/7/2017 8 1 Ryan Zimmerman homered (Fly). Anthony Rendon scored. Daniel Murphy scored. Nationals Cubs .300
10/6/2017 8 0 Jay Bruce homered (Fly). Indians Yankees .298
10/6/2017 3 2 Aaron Hicks homered (Fliner (Fly)). Starlin Castro scored. Gregory Bird scored. Indians Yankees .278
10/12/2017 5 2 Addison Russell doubled to left (Grounder). Willson Contreras scored. Ben Zobrist scored. Nationals Cubs .271
10/25/2017 11 0 George Springer homered (Fliner (Fly)). Cameron Maybin scored. Dodgers Astros .261
10/9/2017 8 3 Anthony Rizzo singled to center (Fliner (Fly)). Leonys Martin scored. Anthony Rizzo out. Cubs Nationals .259
10/16/2017 2 2 Todd Frazier homered (Fliner (Fly)). Starlin Castro scored. Aaron Hicks scored. Yankees Astros .258
10/9/2017 8 2 Josh Reddick singled to left (Grounder). Cameron Maybin scored. George Springer advanced to 3B. Red Sox Astros .253
10/9/2017 5 1 Andrew Benintendi homered (Fly). Xander Bogaerts scored. Red Sox Astros .253
10/6/2017 6 2 Francisco Lindor homered (Fliner (Fly)). Carlos Santana scored. Yan Gomes scored. Lonnie Chisenhall scored. Indians Yankees .251

Of the eight biggest plays in the postseason this year, four occurred in Game 2. Hernandez’s single in a losing effort produced the highest WPA of any play in this postseason.

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Charlie Morton on Baseball and Life

A recent Sunday Notes column published here featured the title Charlie Morton Is Different (and Better). While those words referred to his pitching identity, they could just as easily refer to his personality. The 33-year-old right-hander is about as far away from Nuke LaLoosh as you can get. Thoughtful and articulate, he is anything but a cliche-spouting dumb jock.

His career has been a roller coaster. Prior to this year’s breakout with the Houston Astros, Morton had compiled a record of 46-71 and a 4.54 ERA in nine up-and-down seasons with the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies. Injuries played a big role in the inconsistencies. Along the way Morton had multiple surgeries, including Tommy John, and repairs to both hips.

And then there’s his psyche. Morton has been guilty of getting into his own head, which has resulted in frustration and a tendency to get “too finicky about things like my mechanics and my approach.” Admittedly not serious enough in his early years of pro ball, he eventually found himself taking things too seriously for his own good.

An integral part of the Astros’ win over the Yankees in Game 7 of the ALCS, Morton is scheduled to start Game 4 of the World Series on Saturday. He talked about his evolving approach to the game — and to life — at the conclusion of the regular season.

———

Charlie Morton: “Between injuries and not pitching well, and getting older… your perspective changes. You try to enjoy your time. You try to enjoy the cities you go to, you try to enjoy your teammates, you try to finish up your last few years on a high note.

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Yu Darvish Reflects How the Dodgers Excel

The stat wars are over, and the bodies are buried. Some teams still run more numbers than others, and not every organization has made the same analytical investment, but by and large, the baseball industry has embraced the analytical revolution. We don’t need to go into this. I don’t want to go into this. Baseball has leaned so hard into the numbers that, if anything, it’s created an accidental problem of homogeneous thought. Intellectual diversity might currently be at a relative low. Did you hear about the new GM? He’s just like every other GM. That’s a stupid joke that doesn’t refer to anyone, but it could also refer to almost everyone. This entire paragraph is old hat by now.

Every baseball team has numbers coming out of its ears. Every baseball team has employees with ideas of how the team could be better. The new separator is buy-in. Let’s say you’ve got a player. Let’s say the team thinks it could help the player improve. Will the player be responsive? Does the player trust the people delivering the message? We’ve entered an era of middlemen, of organizations concentrating on finding or developing better communicators. Everyone has the data. The best teams get the players to listen.

At the end of July, right up against the deadline, the Dodgers traded for Yu Darvish. The Dodgers had ideas. Yu Darvish listened.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1128: Two for Game 2

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the thrills, surprises, and unlikely heroes of World Series Game 2, the ongoing home-run barrage this October, and where the World Series stands, then discuss the Yankees’ decision not to bring back Joe Girardi and whether we’ve learned anything from this month’s managerial moves before returning one more time to a controversial call from NLDS Game 5.

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George Springer Had a Change of Heart

George Springer hit the game-winning home run last night, and it was — well, look, these aren’t my words. I’ll let someone else express it.

It held up. Unlike previous home runs, it held up, and the Astros won 7-6. And for Springer, it was a game of redemption, because he’d entered in a slump. The playoffs make it hard to figure out a player’s trajectory — when they began, Springer went 7-for-17 against the Red Sox. But he was 3-for-26 against the Yankees, and in Game 1 against the Dodgers, Springer was fitted for a golden sombrero. Springer was at least perceived to be in a rut, and one could argue he might’ve been over-swinging. Now, Springer often swings hard, but here’s a selection from his four Game 1 at-bats.

Fast-forward to Game 2’s 11th inning. This is all I really want to show you. Springer came up with a man on base, and the first two pitches he saw from Brandon McCarthy were balls. Then he saw the same pitch two times in a row. McCarthy threw sliders, sliders that were probably supposed to be further away than they were. But, in any case, at 2-and-0 and 2-and-1, McCarthy threw a couple of low sliders, and Springer swung at them both. Here are the locations, in case you thought I was exaggerating.

Same pitch. Two swings. The first one was a foul ball. The second one led to the decisive line-drive dinger. Let’s look at those swings. Here’s the first!

And here’s the second.

Of course, the swings look similar — hitters have their own hitting mechanics, just as pitchers have their own pitching mechanics. But the follow-through can be a reliable tell, and so, here’s the first, shown as a screenshot.

That’s Springer with, I don’t know, the full wrap. Springer has been a hard swinger since before he even emerged in the major leagues, so there’s nothing astonishing about seeing him swing with such force. But contrast that picture with the next one. Here’s the aftermath of Springer’s second swing at the same low-middle slider.

At 2-and-0, Springer tried to beat the crap out of the ball. At 2-and-1, he cut down on his swing and tried to go back up the middle. The count was obviously different, but it’s not like this was Springer’s two-strike approach, because he wasn’t there yet. You see in the upper image that Springer’s shoulders are completely rotated, and his lower body is turned to face left field. In the lower image, Springer’s lower body is turned more toward center-left, and his shoulders are stopped short of a full rotation. It’s not like Springer was just trying to slap at the pitch — slap swings don’t go for home runs to that area. But, between pitches, Springer changed his mindset, and took a different swing at the same pitch. The twist is that Springer cut down on his swing and wound up with the best possible result. That’s baseball in 2017 for you.

It’s not often baseball gives you virtually identical consecutive pitches. It makes for a convenient comparison, especially when you don’t have a two-strike count involved. George Springer came into the game in a slump, his powerful whack having failed to deliver its usual results. In extra innings, he cut down on that power a little bit. The ball sailed out of the yard. Funny sport.


Tony Kemp on Hitting (the Astros Way)

Tony Kemp had barely started his professional career when we ran a Q&A with him in July 2013. Just a month earlier, the 5-foot-6 second baseman had been drafted in the fifth round out of Vanderbilt University. With his position, physical stature, and bat-to-ball skills in mind, the piece was titled Tony Kemp, the Astros Next Altuve.

Four years later, he is well established at the minor-league level and essentially blocked in Houston. Kemp has slashed .309/.368/.423 in 1,164 Triple-A plate appearances, but when your comp is collecting batting titles, cups of coffee are about all you can ask for. Altuve’s understudy has logged just 175 plate appearances over parts of two big-league seasons.

A more extended opportunity seems inevitable. Whether it comes with the Astros or elsewhere, Kemp will have more than his raw ability to thank. The 25-year-old infielder has learned a lot since joining the organization, most notably how to consistently square up baseballs. In short, he’s learned how to hit the Astros way.

———

Tony Kemp on evolving as a hitter: “Man, a lot has changed for me [since entering pro ball]. How my swing has kind of come to fruition, how I’ve adjusted to each level and what needed to happen — control the strike zone, get my strikeout rate down and my on-base percentage up, hit for a little more power… being able to do those things over the last four years has been something special.

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Marwin Gonzalez’s Rajai Davis Moment

The simplest, fundamental truth about closers is that none of them are perfect. Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Craig Kimbrel — they all blow saves, and they all take losses. Give them enough time and the bad outings will even pile up. It was Rivera who took the loss in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. Maybe the best playoff pitcher in history took one of the most devastating losses in memory. Baseball perfection is on a relative scale. All that baseball actually guarantees is that somewhere, somehow, sometime, it’ll piss everyone off. No one is safe from the baseball menace.

No closers are perfect. No closer ever has been perfect, and no closer ever will be perfect. But there’s another fundamental truth about the position. By public perception, closers are binary, black and white. There are the closers — the overwhelming majority of them included — who’ll just never earn trust. The closers who make fans roll their eyes and say “here we go again” when they come in and throw their first ball. Fans have no patience with closers. There’s little tolerance for hittability or wildness. In that sense, it can be a terrible job. There’s limited praise, and limitless blame.

Then there’s the lucky few. It’s a rare breed, but there are closers who’re considered automatic. Closers you don’t even feel you have to watch that intently, because success is a foregone conclusion. Why closely watch a baseball game that’s already over? These closers have all blown saves, each and every one of them, but they retain the perception of invulnerability. Maybe it’s more of an illusion, but one can’t deny its existence.

Kenley Jansen is one of those invulnerable closers. In the same way that Rivera was one of those invulnerable closers, Jansen comes in and basically throws one pitch, and after five or ten or fifteen of them, he gets to go change his clothes. Kenley Jansen is effectively bulletproof. Wednesday night, Kenley Jansen blew a save.

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Game Two Was So 2017

Wednesday night had just about everything you could want in a baseball game. Game 2 is on the list, somewhere, of greatest World Series games in history.

There were dramatic swings in win probability in the late innings for each the Astros and Dodgers. Some of the game’s greatest stars produced signature moments. There was Yasiel Puig being Yasiel Puig, licking his bat and slamming his glove after nearly completing a five-star catch. There was the bill of Chris Taylor’s cap perhaps saving a run early. There was Justin Verlander returning from the visiting clubhouse to the dugout to implore his team to do something. There was this generation’s Rivera, Kenley Jansen, enduring a rare misstep. There was poor Josh Fields. There was a rare test of roster depth, with Austin Barnes becoming the first player to appear at catcher and second base in a World Series game.

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