The Astros, the Dodgers, and World Series Payrolls

Last year’s World Series featured a true face-off between big and small markets, pitting the high-revenue Chicago Cubs against the lower-revenue Cleveland Indians. The difference in each club’s markets materialized in their respective payrolls: Chicago outspent Cleveland by roughly $90 million in 2016. The contrast was stark.

This year’s Series represents a different kind of contrast. Everyone’s aware of the Dodgers’ financial might, of course, but the Astros enjoy a large market, too. And even if that hasn’t been obvious recently, the club’s payrolls from a dozen years ago reflect the club’s spending capacities. Over the last decade, however, the team has executed a massive tank-job and also navigated difficulties with their gigantic television deal. The result? Dramatically lower payrolls. The rebuild has worked, however, and the club’s payroll has nearly doubled in just the last two years. However, that payroll is still in the bottom half of baseball and represents only half of the Dodgers’ expenditures in what is the largest disparity in World Series history.

I would be remiss when discussing the disparity between the two teams not to mention that the gap between the clubs’ payrolls is much more modest when comparing only active rosters. Carl Crawford has been gone from the roster for quite some time, but his $22 million salary is still on the books. Scott Kazmir is hurt. Adrian Gonzalez is in Italy. Those three account for around $60 million in salary alone. A handful of other players are no longer on the team. As a result, the Dodgers’ 25-man World Series roster is earning “only” $143 million. Even with all the money the Dodgers have written off, they still have an active roster that would place them in the top half of MLB payrolls. As for the Astros, their World Series roster comes in at around $115 million.

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Job Postings: Minnesota Twins Baseball Operations Internships

Position: Minnesota Twins Baseball Operations Internships

Location: Minneapolis

Description:
The Minnesota Twins are seeking interns for three different positions:

  1. Intern, Baseball Operations: March 2018 through October 2018
  2. Intern, Baseball Operations-Research and Development: March 2018 through October 2018
  3. Intern, Baseball Operations (Summer Internship): Mid-May/Early June 2018 through Late August/Early September 2018

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/25/17

12:00
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:00
Dave Cameron: Travis and I will be live blogging Game 2 tonight, so it’s a chatting kind of day for me.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Plenty of WS stuff to talk about, but we’ll also do some off-season stuff if you’re a fan of one of the other 28 teams that just wants the hot stove season to get here already.

12:01
Not Jeff Luhnow: The Astros have looked lost at the plate for the majority of this postseason.  I know Kershaw is a great pitcher, but how much of last night was him pitching well vs. the Astros not having a good plan and letting a lot of hittable pitches go.

12:02
Dave Cameron: It’s impossible to know, obviously, but it did seem like Houston just wasn’t seeing the ball very well most of the night. They complained repeatedly about clear strikes, Reddick especially. I wonder if they weren’t use to the Dodgers Stadium batters eye or something.

12:03
Josh R: My favorite nugget of the post season: The Dodger bullpen has given up the fewest runs of any team this post season, including the Rockies and Twins one game.

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Justin Turner’s Big In-Game Adjustment

Justin Turner refused to be fooled a third time by Dallas Keuchel in Game 1 of the World Series. He made an equipment change after a strikeout and a pop out, and was ready for the pitcher’s final attempt to go to the well. That go-ahead two-run home run in the sixth serves to give us all a look inside the type of adjustments hitters have to make from at-bat to at-bat.

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The Astros’ Bewildering Offensive Approach

Last night, the Dodgers’ domination of the postseason continued. Winning a World Series game by two runs isn’t exactly steamrolling your opponent, but given what Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Morrow, and Kenley Jansen did to the Astros offense, the game never really felt in doubt. Houston got their only run on an Alex Bregman solo home run and never really threatened again.

The rest of their offensive production consisted of a pair of singles, but neither runner would get past first base. The Astros didn’t put a single runner in scoring position all night long. There were no rallies, no trouble out of which a Dodger pitcher had to work. Just outs, and most of them quick outs.

It took Los Angeles just 107 pitches to face 30 batters. Usually, when you see low pitch counts and quick innings, it’s because a team was overly aggressive, swinging at pitches early in counts and making quick outs. In Game 1, though, the Astros seemingly made it easy on the Dodgers by just not swinging at strikes.

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Clayton Kershaw’s Five Most Remarkable Pitches

People have spent a lot of time defending playoff Clayton Kershaw. This has taken place because other people have spent a lot of time attacking playoff Clayton Kershaw. To the defenders, Kershaw is anything but unclutch. He’s been a victim, a victim of randomness and a victim of sample size. To the attackers, Kershaw hasn’t shown up. Not often enough, not like normal, regular-season Clayton Kershaw. There’s that fact of the 4.40 playoff ERA. That’s where Kershaw was for his career when he woke up Tuesday morning. It’s a number that one could dismiss, but it’s not a number that one could deny. When Kershaw had pitched, there were too many runs. Forget about any weaknesses or character flaws. The argument against playoff Kershaw was simple. The stats were right there.

The Dodgers would tell you that Kershaw was redeemed in the 2016 NLDS. That’s when he came out of the bullpen on one day of rest to close out the Nationals. Kershaw himself wasn’t satisfied. There’s only one way for Kershaw to be satisfied — he needs to win the World Series. He’s internalized all the playoff runs he’s allowed. He’s tired of the frustration, and he’s tired of the defeats. There’s one thing to be done to put it all to rest. Win it all, and it’s all taken care of. The history could finally be buried and dead.

Kershaw hasn’t erased the history just yet. Not for himself. The World Series wasn’t decided by Tuesday’s Game 1. But in the biggest game Kershaw’s ever thrown, nearly every pitch was sharp, and the Astros could come up with no answer. Kershaw drove the critics backward, forcing them to wonder if maybe he’s no pumpkin after all. Kershaw struck out 11 Astros hitters. He became the first pitcher to do so all season long, and he needed only 83 pitches. In 11 previous playoff games, the Astros had struck out against the opposing starter just 35 times combined. Kershaw rendered the league-leading lineup helpless, yielding three hits and a run, without a single walk. Kershaw was Kershaw, on October 24.

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FanGraphs Audio: Establishing the Curveball

Episode 779
Baseball orthodoxy suggests that it’s necessary for a pitcher to “establish the fastball” before turning to his secondary pitches, no matter their objective quality. In Game 7 of the ALCS, meanwhile, Houston right-hander Lance McCullers threw 24 consecutive curves en route to a dominant four-inning relief appearance. This is merely one of the obnoxious paradoxes presented to managing editor Dave Cameron on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min play time.)

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2017 World Series Game 1 Live Blog

5:02
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

5:02
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to World Series Game 1 Live Blog

5:02
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be joined any minute now by the delightful insightful Eno Sarris!

5:02
Jeff Sullivan: You also will be joined by him

5:02
Eno Sarris: Crazy ass fireworks headed straight for the planes I about ducked like on a foul ball straight back to the plate.

5:03
Jeff Sullivan: Hello Eno!

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Something Has Gotten Into Yasiel Puig

This is classified as an InstaGraphs post. That means it’s short. For a variety of reasons, we don’t put up InstaGraphs posts much anymore, but every so often there’s a clear opportunity. I don’t have that much to say here about Yasiel Puig. I just want to show you an image.

As the Dodgers have reached the World Series, Puig has been a major contributor, batting .414 in the playoffs with a wRC+ of 210. He’s struck out just three times, and he’s done that while drawing twice as many walks. Now, let me give you some quick background. Puig has always been pretty aggressive. In 2013, he swung at an above-average rate of first pitches. In 2014, he swung at an above-average rate of first pitches. Same thing happened in 2015. Same thing happened in 2016 and then again in 2017. Puig, historically, has liked to go after the first pitch he’s seen. That’s neither good nor bad on its own; it’s just a thing. But now! Now, look at this.

This shows Puig’s entire career. This is Puig’s rolling-average first-pitch-swing rate, over progressive spans of 50 plate appearances.

It’s plummeted almost to nothing. Already, in 2017, Puig appeared slightly more patient, but now he’s far lower than ever. Puig has batted 35 times in the playoffs. He’s swung at the first pitch only twice. The first pitch has counted as a strike 37% of the time. During the season, that rate was 59%. And, in the playoffs, Puig has been ahead in the count for 45% of all the pitches he’s seen. During the season, that rate was 30%. Puig has the highest playoff rate out of anyone. It’s Yasiel Puig who’s most working the count.

As mentioned, Puig has gone after the first pitch just two times out of 35 in the playoffs. But this seemingly didn’t start right then. Over Puig’s final five regular-season games, he went after the first pitch one time out of 16. He’d gone after four of the previous 16 first pitches, and five of the previous 16 first pitches. Puig’s first-pitch aggressiveness slowed almost to a halt. And, interestingly enough, right before Puig started taking way more first pitches, he was benched for disciplinary reasons. Dave Roberts was annoyed with him. Through September 23, Puig hadn’t drawn a walk in 11 straight starts. Then he was benched. He drew three walks over the last five games, and then the playoffs happened. The discipline has carried over.

I don’t want to suggest that, all of a sudden, Yasiel Puig has a Joey Votto-like approach. I don’t think Puig has one of the best eyes in baseball. But, abruptly, roughly one month ago, Puig stopped swinging so aggressively, especially early on. He’s taken nearly every first pitch, and to this point it’s worked to his benefit. If only temporarily, the Dodgers might’ve gotten through to him. Ideally this would last forever, but, more realistically, it would be nice if it lasted another week and a half. When Puig is in control of his own zone, there’s not much he can’t do.


The Dodgers’ Minor Roster Shake-Up

We’re a few hours away from Game 1 of the World Series, which means we have a few hours to analyze the World Series rosters that were released this afternoon.

The Astros are making no changes to their roster. The same 25 players who were a part of the ALCS roster will also have a World Series experience.

Perhaps the intrigue with the Astros’ World Series roster is whether A.J. Hinch will actually trust his bullpen, a subject Dave tackled earlier today. Also of some interest is the distribution of lefties and righties in Houston’s staff: only two of the former, Dallas Keuchel and Francisco Liriano, will be available for Hinch for the duration of the Series. Perhaps that’s a good thing: as I noted in a post examining the Dallas Keuchel’s Game 1 start, the Dodgers typically crush lefties.

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