Last week in this space, we took a look at some shortstops predominantly known for their gloves who’ve taken some real (and not so real) steps forward with the bat. (Zack Cozart was not included; he deserves his own article soon.) This time, let’s flip the script and assess the light offensive production of some shortstops known for their bats not all that long ago.
Tucker Barnhart has quietly emerged as one of the better backstops in baseball. He leads MLB catchers in Defensive Runs Saved (14) and fielding percentage (.999), and he’s thrown out 22 of 50 runners attempting to steal. He’s coming around with the bat, as well. The switch-hitter is slashing a solid .271/.340/.398. Lauded for his leadership, Barnhart is becoming an increasingly vital part of the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuild.
A 10th-round pick in 2009 out of an Indiana high school, the glove-first Brownsburg native doggedly worked his way up through the Reds minor-league system. And while he’s still learning in his third full big-league season, he’s also a mentor. Of the 25 pitchers to toe the rubber for Cincinnati this season, 13 are rookies, and a baker’s dozen are younger than his 26 years.
Barnhart discussed his formative years at the position, and his hard-nosed-yet-thoughtful approach, a few weeks ago.
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Barnhart on his infield background: “I caught growing up, but I wasn’t necessarily a catcher first. Before my sophomore year of high school it was probably 50-50 between catching and the infield. I played a lot of middle infield, and I truly attribute some of the success I’ve had behind the plate to having done that. Being able to turn double plays, the footwork, the exchange… all of that helped with what I do behind the plate.
Joey Votto is doing that thing again. You know, that thing where he doesn’t make outs. That thing where he makes himself the one guy on the Reds worth watching on a regular basis. Under even normal circumstances, Votto is arguably the game’s best hitter. Over the past three weeks or so, Votto’s caught fire. He’s led baseball in average, wRC+, and OBP, surpassing second place in the latter stat by damn near 100 points. In case you haven’t heard, Votto has reached base at least two times for 19 games in a row. Only Ted Williams, Pete Rose, and Barry Bonds have put together longer such streaks, and Williams’ leading streak is but two games away.
Votto goes on these runs where he’s almost impossible to put away. The Cubs had to try to contain him Monday night, and, to give away the end, they didn’t. Votto extended his streak, collecting three hits. Now, the Cubs won by 10 runs, so, whatever. The Reds can’t pitch. But it’s not interesting that the Cubs destroyed the Reds in a baseball game. Rather, it’s interesting how the Cubs tried to defend Votto in the top of the fifth. You’ll notice something different.
In one of the least noticed trades before the July 31st deadline, the Rays and Orioles made a seemingly minor swap, with Tampa sending shortstop Tim Beckham to Baltimore for minor leaguer Tobias Myers. After acquiring Lucas Duda to take over at DH, the Rays had filled their infield and didn’t have regular at-bats for Beckham anymore, so they shipped him off to Baltimore for an 18-year-old in short-season ball.
Only since that seemingly inconsequential swap, Beckham has been the single best player in baseball, and we have to ask if the Orioles somehow stole a quality shortstop from their division rival.
| Name | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Beckham | 60 | 0.500 | 0.517 | 0.897 | 0.584 | 278 | 1.6 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 55 | 0.367 | 0.436 | 1.041 | 0.579 | 264 | 1.3 |
| Joey Votto | 63 | 0.435 | 0.587 | 0.783 | 0.551 | 243 | 1.2 |
| Mike Trout | 59 | 0.386 | 0.542 | 0.727 | 0.521 | 242 | 1.2 |
| Josh Donaldson | 54 | 0.341 | 0.481 | 0.854 | 0.524 | 237 | 1.1 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 47 | 0.425 | 0.489 | 0.875 | 0.540 | 244 | 1.1 |
| Nelson Cruz | 52 | 0.396 | 0.423 | 0.979 | 0.558 | 266 | 1.0 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 59 | 0.396 | 0.508 | 0.729 | 0.503 | 197 | 0.9 |
| Joey Gallo | 48 | 0.275 | 0.396 | 0.900 | 0.509 | 224 | 0.9 |
| Kris Bryant | 60 | 0.412 | 0.483 | 0.647 | 0.472 | 193 | 0.9 |
Know how Giancarlo Stanton has been hitting homers every game? Beckham has been better.
Notice how Joey Votto is closing in on the record for consecutive games on base multiple times? Beckham has been better.
Enjoying how Mike Trout is establishing a new level of greatness, even by his own standards? Beckham has been better.
Below are the updated summer top-10 prospect lists for the orgs in the National League Central. I have notes beneath the top 10s explaining why some of these prospects have moved up or down. For detailed scouting information on individual players, check out the player’s profile page which may include tool grades and/or links to Daily Prospect Notes posts in which they’ve appeared this season. For detailed info on players drafted or signed this year, check out our sortable boards.
1. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
2. Victor Caratini, C/1B
3. Oscar de la Cruz, RHP
4. Jose Albertos, RHP
5. Thomas Hatch, RHP
6. Aramis Ademan, SS
7. Alex Lange, RHP
8. Brendon Little, LHP
9. Mark Zagunis, 3B
10. D.J. Wilson, CF
If you’ve watched the Reds recently, you’ve probably noticed that they can score some runs. They’re among the top five or six in the National League no matter which offensive metric you choose for your sorting, and it’s based around a core that may only lose Zack Cozart next year. For this team, then, the future is dependent on pitching — and finding an ace among the many different arms they’ve acquired over the years. Is it possible they have that ace in Luis Castillo?
| 12:02 |
: Good morning from Tempe. Summer updates to org top 10s have been going up this week, you know where to find those. Let’s get right into it.
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| 12:02 |
: Have you seen Adolis Garcia, in the cardinals system? Seems like he’s built, and plays, like a Puig type
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| 12:03 |
: Yes, power/speed, very aggressive approach combined with fringe feel to hit had scouts projecting him as a fourth OF when he was in Cuba. I still think he’s likely to be something between that and a low-end regular but he’s hitting better than that at Triple-A.
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| 12:03 |
: Thoughts on Raul Mondesi? Still young, hitting well at AAA
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| 12:05 |
: Yes and not looking so erratic at the plate. Hit a homer the opposite way from the left side last night, hit one from the right side with no stride (something he eliminates with two strikes) two days ago. I think he’ll be frustrating at times but there’s still prodigious physical skill there and I think he’ll be the everyday guy next year.
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| 12:05 |
: Stick a fork in Delvin Perez?
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This has been a forgettable season for the Mets.
With their playoff odds having been effectively reduced to 0%, with one of most promising staffs in the game decimated by injury, the club has recently raised something of a white flag by trading Jay Bruce and Neil Walker, though the season has felt like it’s been over for some time.
Below are the updated summer top-10 prospect lists for the orgs in the American League Central. I have notes beneath the top 10s explaining why some of these prospects have moved up or down. For detailed scouting information on individual players, check out the player’s profile page which may include tool grades and/or links to Daily Prospect Notes posts in which they’ve appeared this season. For detailed info on players drafted or signed this year, check out our sortable boards.
1. Yoan Moncada, 2B
2. Eloy Jimenez, OF
3. Michael Kopech, RHP
4. Lucas Giolito, RHP
5. Luis Robert, OF
6. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP
7. Blake Rutherford, OF
8. Alec Hansen, RHP
9. Dylan Cease, RHP
10. Zack Collins, C
Sunday night, Rafael Devers went yard against Aroldis Chapman, even though Chapman’s fastball was recorded at nearly 103 miles per hour. It’s the fastest pitch hit out in the pitch-tracking era, which has spanned nearly a decade, and that linked article was almost obligatory. Had to write something up. Devers tagged Chapman, even though it seemed like Chapman had his best stuff.
To a certain extent, you can’t blame Chapman for what happened. He threw a lefty-on-lefty fastball, with two strikes, kind of up and in at over 100 miles per hour. That pitch should basically never go for a homer. I’m still not sure how it happened. But, ignore the homer for a moment. Pretend it was a double, or a single. Or even an out! Whatever you like. Devers made contact. Solid contact, at that. The contact is what’s strange, and there are signs of a problematic trend, here.
Let’s examine Chapman’s career, shall we? I’ve prepared three rolling-average plots, each using samples of 30 games. This first one shows the development of Chapman’s average fastball.
You could argue there’s a recent down tick, but Chapman is still regularly reaching triple digits. His fastball is fast. Still a Chapman fastball. Like we all saw with the at-bat against Devers, Chapman can still run it up there about as hard as he ever has. So, based on the velocity, Chapman seems okay. Shifting to pitch location, we can see a trend from the past year and a half or so.
Chapman has been aggressive with pitching in the zone. He’s thrown two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, and this year in particular, he’s regularly gotten ahead with the first pitches of plate appearances. And, of course, with such an unhittable fastball, why mess around? Chapman had a terrific 2016, in which he came right after his opponents. This year, he’s done much of the same. But-
That plot shows contact rate. Chapman’s present contact rate is far higher than it’s been since earlier in 2013. All of a sudden — it’s not so much that Chapman is hittable, but he’s a great deal more hittable than he’s been. Look at this table of the biggest contact-rate declines from last year, with a minimum of 30 innings:
| Pitcher | 2016 Contact% | 2017 Contact% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | 65.4% | 75.2% | 9.8% |
| Seung Hwan Oh | 65.6% | 74.4% | 8.8% |
| Matt Cain | 80.4% | 89.1% | 8.7% |
| Dustin McGowan | 69.5% | 78.0% | 8.5% |
| Junichi Tazawa | 73.5% | 82.0% | 8.5% |
| Luke Gregerson | 57.9% | 65.7% | 7.8% |
| Mychal Givens | 70.0% | 77.5% | 7.5% |
| Daniel Coulombe | 70.5% | 77.9% | 7.4% |
| Kelvin Herrera | 70.3% | 77.3% | 7.0% |
| Cole Hamels | 74.6% | 81.5% | 6.9% |
Chapman has a contact rate of 75.2%. The league-average reliever has a contact rate of 75.4%. No pitcher’s contact rate has dropped by more, and although Chapman is still mostly okay, and although this could be a blip, he was on the disabled list for a month, with a rotator-cuff problem. His contact rate has only risen since he came back. The velocity is there, and maybe that’s the most important thing, but you do have to wonder. Chapman’s been one of the most dominant relievers anyone’s ever seen. Real cracks appear to be forming.
Related to this, consider Chapman’s year-to-year ranks among all relievers in Win Probability Added:
I don’t know what the issue is. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if it were linked to the injury. In that case, it would be nice to have an explanation. But even then, explanation isn’t resolution. Aroldis Chapman is allowing roughly league-average contact. He’s in the first year of the largest contract a reliever has ever signed.