The Best Hitter in the NL Central (Minimum 29 Plate Appearances)

Baseball is flush with randomness. Time and time again, we trick ourselves into believing we have a good sense of what’s going to happen next, armed with an ever-growing arsenal of measurements, metrics, and projections. Yet, without fail, baseball constantly finds a way to catch us by surprise. One of those surprises has taken St. Louis by storm the last couple of weeks. First baseman Luke Voit debuted for the Cardinals on June 25th and has proceeded to hit .333/.379/.704 between then and now. He’s currently sporting a 179 wRC+, which as the title suggests, is one of the best in baseball among batters with at least 29 plate appearances.

Of course, 29 plate appearances is too few to tell us much of anything about what Voit will do going forward. Luckily, Voit has a lengthy minor-league track record that can. And now that you’ve fallen for the clickbaity title, you’re stuck reading about it.

While surprising, Voit’s performance didn’t come completely out of nowhere. He was a good hitter in the minors, amassing over 30 homers since the start of 2015. He slashed .322/.406/.561 at Triple-A this year and .297/.372/,477 in 2016 at Double-A. Voit also managed to keep his strikeout rate comfortably below 20%, which allowed him to hit for both average and power.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/7/17

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for that delay, was finishing a podcast

9:06
Stuafoo: Dave made an interesting claim recently that Brandon Belt might be the player who is hurt most by their home ballpark. Who else would be on that list?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: So I actually kind of disagree with Dave there

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: It’s true that Belt has hit twice as many home runs on the road as he has at home, over his career. But his career home wOBA is .359. His career road wOBA is .348!

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The Brewers Are Happening

I’ve noticed a recurring question in most of my chats. For the past several weeks, a similar query has shown up time and again, and that query is, to paraphrase: “where do the Brewers actually have to be in order to be a deadline buyer?” And I’ve mostly ignored the query, or brushed it aside, because while in one sense it was a worthwhile question, I didn’t think it was going to matter. I assumed the Brewers would fade away. I imagine nearly all of us assumed the Brewers would fade away. No reason for them to change the course of their rebuild.

I can tell you this: there’s still time. Still time for the Brewers to collapse, or regress, or do whatever might be your preferred word for the action. Still time for the Brewers to stop being good. But on Thursday, the Brewers went into Chicago and they throttled the Cubs so badly that Jon Jay was asked to handle the ninth. Importantly, the Brewers added to their lead in the division. No less importantly, the Brewers closed in on the second wild-card slot. The Brewers have played more than half of their games, and they’ve won more than half of the games that they’ve played. The Brewers have indeed positioned themselves to buy.

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The Other Mysterious Framing Declines

On Monday, while investigating Jonathan Lucroy’s mysterious framing decline, I noted that Buster Posey and Yadier Molina have also had noticeable falls from the framing elite this season.

Posey ranked as the game’s best framing catcher last season (26.5 framing runs), according to Baseball Prospectus , and has fallen to 28th thus far this season, with just 0.5 framing runs to his credit. Molina has fallen from ninth last season (9.0 framing runs) to 38th (with a mark of -0.5).

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Starting-Pitcher Championship-Belt Showdown

The overriding theme of the 2017 season to date has been a wave of homers, many of them hit into the stratosphere courtesy of the sport’s new wave of sluggers, like Cody Bellinger, Miguel Sano, and, of course, Aaron Judge. Somewhat under the radar, the game’s three best starting pitchers, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and are doing what they always do — namely, dominate.

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Here’s an Astonishing Clayton Kershaw Statistic

Clayton Kershaw is an outlier, and for the more number-oriented among us, outliers can be best appreciated through their statistics. One could investigate Kershaw with the same enthusiasm with which one could investigate Barry Bonds. Maybe more fittingly, he’s like a modern-day Pedro Martinez. His career could be considered an accumulation of incredible fun facts. There’s the one about how his five-year ERA is still holding under 2.00. There’s the one about how Kershaw allowed an identical .521 OPS in three consecutive seasons. (In the fourth season, Kershaw got better.) It’s overwhelming to think about gathering all the best Kershaw fun facts. There are too many. You might already have your own favorite.

Now I have another fact to add to the list. It’s a little bit different — it’s as much about the hitters as it is about Kershaw himself, and it isn’t even necessarily good. What it is is an outlier. It’s another Kershaw stat that stands out from the pack. It requires some digging to get to, but the effort, I think, is worthwhile, because seldom do you ever encounter such statistical separation.

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Manny Machado on Preparing for a Series

It’s quite possible that — as recently as last night, with the Orioles preparing to finish their series against the Brewers — that Manny Machado had no idea who’d be on the mound for the Twins this evening. That sort of knowledge, and the preparation that goes along with it, would have to wait until Baltimore was finished with Milwaukee. The young third baseman doesn’t like to look too far ahead. I learned that when I spoke to Machado earlier this season.

At the time of our conversation, the Orioles were in Boston to play the Red Sox. His club would be facing the White Sox next, and I was interested to know when Chicago — and, specifically, their pitchers — would begin entering Machado’s consciousness. Here’s what he had to say.

———

Machado on preparing for a series: “I don’t really think ahead. I think it’s the same way for most of the guys in this clubhouse — you have to stay in the moment. Today we have to face Chris Sale, so why would we think about the White Sox coming up? We have to worry about one of the best pitchers in the game, and what we’re going to do against him. We just prepare for the guy we’re going to face tonight. We stay with our same routines in the cage, and on the field, as well.

“Every time you go into a series, you kind of want to know who the three or four starters are going to be, but that’s just right before the series starts. I don’t know who is pitching for Chicago yet. Once the series here is over, I’ll take a look to see who we’ve got coming. I’ll kind of prepare myself mentally and start creating my plan for that series.

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Daily Prospect Notes: 7/6

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jose Siri, OF, Cincinnati (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-5, 3B, HR

Notes
Siri’s slender 6-foot-2 frame contains surprisingly big tools. He’s a plus runner with above-average raw power and arm strength. He also has good bat control, although an aggressive approach at the plate has lead to some strikeout issues throughout his career that could be further exposed at upper levels. He has big upside if he can continue to hit. Much of what scouts are saying about Siri now were being said, verbatim, about Nick Williams two years ago.

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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat – 7/6/17

2:04
Eno Sarris: Saw these guys along with Andrew Bird, Weezer, Mumford… and they were clearly the best in show

12:01
Tumbler, Whiskey: #VoteHos

12:01
Eno Sarris: #LoveHos

12:02
Biden the Dog: More like Dellin Becanthitthestrikezone am I right?

12:02
Eno Sarris: It was the reason he didn’t start, right?

12:02
Asdrubal: Fister, Gossett, Lively, Butler – I dare you to rank them.

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Freddie Freeman’s Strange BP Technique

“Watch a batting practice of mine and it’s real boring,” said Freddie Freeman with a smile. The Atlanta first baseman is back, and he’s playing third base right now. You’d think the change of position might be the strangest thing about him. After studying angles with the team’s infield coach Ron Washington, though, he feels like playing third won’t actually be so difficult. What’s weirder is his approach during batting practice. As both his numbers and geometry suggest, however, his unusual BP strategy makes sense for him.

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