Draft Notes: In-Person Scouting & Scuttlebutt Galore
Both Eric and I will be posting in-person scouting reports on draft prospects we see throughout the spring. And through summer, too. And the fall, also, for that matter. Here is my first dispatch from Florida. Other will follow from where I am currently — namely, the Dominican Republic. (See my twitter account for real-time updates.) Here’s Eric’s recap of his first week watching amateur action in Arizona.
There’s been a good bit of draft news since our rankings dropped, so let’s run down the news before I get into the games I saw last weekend.
As I first reported (with an assist from Eric), the No. 3 overall prospect on our preseason board, Georgia prep RHP Ethan Hankins, left a start in the first inning with an arm injury that was later revealed to be a sore shoulder. It’s believed that this is just a minor setback that will be resolved with weeks of rehab, which shouldn’t severely impact his draft stock.
Some scouts with whom I spoke before Hankins’ injury were mildly concerned that his debut ranked third behind behind those of Florida prep righties Mason Denaburg and Carter Stewart. (more on those two below.) News regarding Hankins’ injury helps to explain his ineffectiveness, though. He’ll have plenty of time to get healthy and back on track. Here’s to hoping it’s as minor of an injury as expected.
We lost two notable college arms — Texas Tech LHP Stephen Gingery (a second- to third-round prospect) and Florida State LHP Tyler Holton (a performer with solid stuff who didn’t sign in last year’s draft as an eligible sophomore) — to torn UCLs over the weekend.
Beyond that, some quick hit notes from around the country:
- No. 2 on our list, Arizona prep 3B Nolan Gorman, hit an opposite-field homer in his team’s first action last weekend.
- Eric saw Oregon State this weekend and will see them again, so he’s holding off on writing about them, but it sounds like 2B Nick Madrigal (No. 6 on our list) and RF Trevor Larnach (No. 29) met and exceeded expectations, respectively, on opening weekend.
- No. 7 on our list, Stetson RHP Logan Gilbert, featured stuff that was down a tick, but he was effective anyway (and it’s early). Another college pitcher and No. 8 prospect, Ole Miss LHP Ryan Rolison, apparently had a tick better stuff in his debut, flashing 55-60s not only on all three pitches but also his command. One scout described it as “a top-five-pick performance.” I also heard some buzz that the debut of a third collegiate, No. 18 Auburn RHP Casey Mize, was as impressive as his line, and he has some top-10 pick momentum now as well.
- No. 9 prospect, California prep SS Brice Turang, went deep after fellow California prep RHP Cole Winn (who would’ve been in the 30s of our list if we went a little deeper) exited the game. Winn was 90-95 and touching 96 mph when he faced Turang. Winn is also known for having one of the highest-spin curveballs in the class, behind Notorious RPM Carter Stewart
- No. 23 on our list, Florida prep CF Connor Scott may already be making that Austin Beck-esque move up the board we mentioned in the draft rankings, hitting a homer earlier this week and continuing to grow on scouts with his wide base of standout tools. Another prep arm, No. 22 RHP Kumar Rocker from Georgia, was solid in his season debut, working 94-98 mph for three innings.
- No. 19 on our list, Oregon RHP Matt Mercer met expectations in his debut outing, with the expected above average four pitch mix and mid-90’s velocity. We’ve also heard from some scouts that it appears both No. 17 on our list South Alabama CF Travis Swaggerty and Oklahoma RF Steele Walker (just missed the top 30) have added more loft to their swings. Both weren’t really homer threats last summer for Team USA but hit homers this weekend playing in the same tournament in Myrtle Beach. Swaggerty and Walker both have enough raw power to move up boards if they can successfully make and sustain this adjustment.
- Among players who just missed the top-30 group, Connecticut LHP Tim Cate has some big believers, while others think he’s just a smallish reliever, with one scout reserving judgment on his debut saying he was “just fine.” Stanford RHP Tristan Beck was healthy (a big accomplishment for him at this point), and his stuff was mostly back, which could land him in the middle of round one if he can do that for the rest of the spring.
- Also, Florida State RHP Cole Sands was into the mid-90s in his debut, and scouts are telling me I need to get in to see the Seminoles to check out their likely new Friday starter (taking Holton’s spot), 2018-eligible bats OF Jackson Lueck and C Cal Raleigh, along with 2019-eligible 3B Drew Mendoza. In what already appeared to be a banner year for talent in Florida colleges and preps, things keeps getting better.
Now, on to the guys I personally scouted last weekend:
Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (FL)
In the draft-rankings blurb, we noted that Stewart’s curveball is his separator, with some scouts projecting it to a 70 on the 20-80 scale. If his 88-92 mph fastball from this summer can get into the mid-90s, however, he’ll likely rise into the early to mid-stages of the first round. In his season debut, his velocity was 91-94 mph for the whole three-inning outing, pitching in front of 12 of the 30 scouting directors by my count. This was because Denaburg (below) was going in the nightcap at the same field as part of a PBR tournament and, the next day, Florida, Stetson, and USF would all be featuring top-15 type arms within driving distance. Stewart’s curveball wasn’t its normal self, more 50 to 55 with a couple 60s mixed in at 78-82 mph. For a long-limbed teenage pitcher in his season debut, however, throwing a consistently sharp curveball is a tall order.
