As I write this, the Rays are sixth in the American League in our in-house playoff odds. They’re two and a half games out of first place in the American League East, and they’re one game out of a wild-card spot. This year’s Rays have a chance to actually go somewhere. This year’s Mets do not, and so a sensible trade has been made.
Rays get:
Mets get:
This is one of those easy ones, one of those simple ones, one of those ones that hardly even warrants a write-up at all. The Mets are out of the race, and Duda is an aging rental player. Smith is a minor-league reliever, and for all I know those might be literally a dime a dozen, but he has plus velocity and an interesting curve, so you never know when it might click. The Rays, meanwhile, found themselves interested by the improvement Duda could provide. What is a Lucas Duda? This is a Lucas Duda.
Duda is a player whose very name kind of suggests everything you need to know about him. Not that I necessary mean to profile, and I don’t condone this sort of activity, but the name “Lucas Duda” conveys a certain amount of size and power. Duda, indeed, is large and strong, and he presently ranks among the league leaders in average exit velocity. The pluses are that he can hit the ball far, and he’s also comfortable drawing a walk. On the downside, Duda’s not much of a defender, and he’s prone to his strikeouts. He’s historically been a lot better against both righties and starting pitchers, so there are holes in his swing to be exploited.
Duda isn’t an impact rental in the way that J.D. Martinez could be an impact rental. Duda’s not that good. Still, he is a legitimate masher, and he’s an offensive upgrade over, say, Brad Miller, who’s been DHing too much. Duda, now, will slide into that spot, allowing Corey Dickerson to more regularly play the outfield while Miller could go back to pairing with Tim Beckham. There’s also a chance Miller or Beckham could subsequently be dealt — the Rays are tricky like that. But mostly, this feels like an addition for the sake of extra versatility and dingers. The roster will be stretched a little less thin, and in even better news, Kevin Kiermaier is nearing his return from the disabled list.
The Rays aren’t going for it in the traditional sense, and I doubt they ever will. They genuinely can’t afford to make those kinds of moves. But they are still clearly acting on their present opportunity, as they’ve also recently added players like Dan Jennings, Sergio Romo, and Chaz Roe. Those are three unspectacular relievers, yet there are things to like about each, and the Rays added them cheaply. They’re short-term additions, intended to make the Rays better now, but they haven’t actually lost very much. Smith is a recent third-round pick, but you don’t sweat dealing most A-ball relievers.
Duda’s going to serve as a two-month slugger. If things go the Rays’ way, he’ll be more like a three-month slugger. It might be moderately troubling that he, Dickerson, and Logan Morrison are all left-handed, but there’s still time to patch up the bench. The Rays are for real as a competitive team, and they’re adding for now in the way that makes sense to them. It’s hardly exciting, hardly dramatic, but the Rays are banking on their usual formula. They’re not a team that makes splashes. They just want to make sure they’re okay.
I’m not supposed to embed pictures or videos above the fold. (We have a fold.) So I’m going to get right to it, inserting an early page break so I can show you a clip from last night. Turns out Wednesday was Brandon Morrow’s 33rd birthday! He was asked by the Dodgers to handle the seventh inning of what would turn into a dramatic come-from-behind victory. Morrow set the Twins down 1-2-3. Below, a pitch that he threw to Brian Dozier.
Wednesday night, Justin Smoak hit another home run. It was a rather big home run, a dramatic ninth-inning home run, but as far as these purposes are concerned, all that matters is that a home run happened, nevermind the context. A couple months ago, it looked like Smoak could be breaking out, at last. He hasn’t slowed down even the tiniest bit. He’s been one of the more dangerous hitters in all of baseball, and for as much as the Blue Jays’ season has gone down the toilet, Smoak’s made for a great story. His career WAR is 3.4. His 2017 WAR is 3.1.
I’ve been thinking about Smoak a lot. But then, there are also other dots to connect. A story that’s similar to Smoak’s is that of Logan Morrison. In the AL West, Yonder Alonso has turned himself into an offensive weapon. There’s also been the unexpected breakout of Marwin Gonzalez, and while I don’t want to just go down a list name by name, there have been other big surges, and also a number of shocking collapses. Carlos Gonzalez has fallen apart. Jonathan Lucroy, too. Names and more names and more names.
It feels like hitters have been particularly unpredictable. But there could be a strong element of recency bias — I remember this year’s studies the best, and examinations tend to focus on the biggest surprises. So I tried to dig into the numbers. Turns out it’s more than just a hunch.
Heading into last night’s start, the Rangers were reportedly still undecided on what to do with Yu Darvish at the trade deadline. At 49-51, they weren’t exactly playing like a postseason contender, but the mediocrity of the American League means they’re still in the Wild Card race, which would point towards keeping their ace to try and make a run. But in a market saturated with low-end arms, Darvish would be the rare premium starting pitcher available, and the team could potentially land a significant return for a player they might lose in free agency this winter.
So with a bunch of scouts on hand, the team had to hope Darvish would give them some clarity. Instead, his start only made things more confusing.
Philadelphia sent All Star reliever Pat Neshek to Colorado on Wednesday night in exchange for three prospects. Let’s refresh:
Colorado gets
RHP Pat Neshek
Philadelphia gets
SS Jose Gomez
RHP J.D. Hammer
RHP Alejandro Requena
Gomez, a 20-year old infielder at Low-A Asheville, is the owner of a .316 career batting average and indeed scouts like his feel to hit. Gomez doesn’t get much out of his lower half and is a bit undersized, and thus very unlikely to hit for much power barring a mechanical change, but he has good hand-eye coordination, above average bat speed and a chance to be a plus hitter at peak.
An average runner with an average arm, Gomez lacks the high-end athleticism typically found at shortstop and is not a lock to stay there. He’s already seeing time at second and third base, two positions where Gomez will likely lack the power to profile every day should one of them become his long term defensive home. He projects as a bat-first utility player.
Hammer is a 23-year old relief prospect with a plus, running fastball that will touch 97. He was a 24th rounder out of Marshall last year and had struck out 47 hitters at Low-A before a late-June promotion to Hi-A Lancaster. Hammer’s arm is lightning quick and while he shows some feel for locating his fastball to his arm side with consistency (in part because it naturally runs that way), his command is currently below average. He also has a power slider (I’ve had scouts call it a slider and curveball, and the way its’ described makes it sound like a hard slurve, so I’ll call it a slider) that flashes average. He projects as a middle relief piece but could be more if a better secondary pitch can be coaxed out of that arm speed and, as a Colorado high schooler who then went to a college not typically associated with baseball, perhaps that’s coming late.
Finally, 20-year old Venezuelan Alejandro Requena is a pitchability who had posted a 2.85 ERA this season at Asheville. He sits in the 88-92 range with his fastball which he locates readily to both sides of the plate and he has a loopy, fringey curveball that he can lob in for strikes to get ahead of hitters or bury in the dirt when ahead in the count. He could max out as a backend starter but is more likely to fall in the starters 6-10 range teams typically need to dip into during the course of a season.
As far as FVs go, Gomez is a 40 for me, projecting as a utility man with a better bat than usually found there. That’s a 45 at peak with Gomez’s proximity from the Majors diluting the mark. The other two are, in FanGraphs prospect parlance, honorable mention prospects worth continued attention.
| Age | 20 | Height | 5’11 | Weight | 175 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Speed | Defense | Throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/60 | 40/45 | 20/40 | 50/50 | 40/50 | 50/50 |
| 1:32 |
: be here shortly!
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| 12:01 |
: Yo I’m here!
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| 12:02 |
: You pumped for Chris Flexen? I assume you’ll be paying close attention to him.
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| 12:02 |
: Came into the season like 56th on the Mets starting pitcher depth chart haha.
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| 12:02 |
: best lottery ticket ROS in a twelve team, points league? Snell, Pivetta, A. Moore, M. Moore, Mejia, Marquez, Lamet. Thank you much sir.
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| 12:02 |
: Snell and then Lamet.
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On Tuesday night, the Red Sox sent two prospects to San Francisco in exchange for infielder Eduardo Nunez. Those prospects were RHP Shaun Anderson and RHP Gregory Santos.
Anderson was a 2016 3rd rounder out of Florida, and another of the seemingly annual example of the Gators’ embarrassment of pitching riches, as Anderson has a starter’s repertoire but pitched out of their bullpen. He works an upper-80s cutter under the hands of left-handed hitters, has a low-80s slider with more loop that he runs away from righties, and he can turn over a fringe to average upper-70s curveball. He also has a formerly rarely used changeup that is now flashing average. The slider and cutter are effective when located properly, but all are fringe to average pitches purely on stuff.
Anderson’s fastball sits 92-94 and will touch 96. I’ve received mixed opinions about his strike-throwing ability, with some scouts thinking it’s suitable for continued projection as a starter while others found it lacking, citing frequent misfires resulting in fastballs and sliders left up and out of the strike zone. Single-A hitters have been willing to offer at these, upper-level hitters may not.
The range of outcomes scouts see for Anderson is relatively narrow. Some see him as a backend rotation piece, others as a reliever. Both place him in the 40 FV range.
| Age | 22 | Height | 6’4 | Weight | 225 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Curveball | Cutter | Control/ Command |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55/55 | 50/55 | 45/50 | 40/45 | 45/50 | 40/45 |
Santos turns 18 in late August and was pitching in the DSL for the second straight year. He has yet to harness his terrific arm strength, sitting 92-96 with life. Santos joins a growing number of hard-throwing Latin American arms in the low levels of San Francisco’s farm system.
Interviews are often meandering things that you have to corral in order to make sense of anything. Every once in a while, though, you get a player with a cadence that should remain unbroken and a subject that provides them with a runway — why stand in the way? I once did this with J.D. Martinez, who has taken to this game in a mechanical manner and told us how he came to his realizations about how he should best play baseball. Now let’s let Andrew McCutchen talk about how he got his mojo back, in only the way he can. It’s a very different approach, but there’s a beauty in that I’d rather not sully with my own words.
Tanner Houck was 20 years old when the Red Sox selected him 24th overall out of the University of Missouri in this year’s amateur draft. Another number is every bit as important. According to some evaluators, the 6-foot-5 right-hander’s sinking fastball grades out as a 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale). Kevin Brown comparisons have accompanied his ascent to professional baseball.
Houck augments his signature pitch with a slider and a changeup, neither of which grades out as plus at this stage of development. But each has potential, and thanks to the quality of his go-to, they’re almost icing on the cake. Delivered from a low three-quarters arm angle, Houck’s bowling-ball heater is an open invitation for an infield roller.
Houck, who is getting his feet wet with the short-season Lowell Spinners, talked about his game shortly before making his professional debut in mid July.
In recent off-seasons, I have attempted to ascertain team’s baseline true-talent levels utilizing batted ball data. This year, let’s do the same with current year data through the break. Today, let’s look at the American League.