Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the appeal of deflected balls caught on the fly, the lack of variety in MLB.TV highlights, Aaron Judge’s bases-empty intentional walks, the Braves falling out of playoff position (for now), and the surprising team with a trio of young, above-average, qualified hitters. Then (40:44) they rank the types of baseball versatility and Stat Blast (56:18) about the decline of switch-hitting, Maury Wills and switch-hitter slumps, how often managers are fired following a loss, and whether intra-division trades are getting more common.
The Orioles have had their ups and downs lately. Since July 7, a point at which they led the American League East by three games, they’ve gone 11-15, briefly dropping out of the top spot; as of this writing, they’re currently tied with the Yankees at 68-48. They were among the busiest teams ahead of the trade deadline, but their approach was geared more towards quantity instead of quality, as none of their additions rate as an impact player. They’ve dealt with a handful of injuries lately, but in the absence of infielders Jorge Mateo and Jordan Westburg, top prospect Jackson Holliday has gotten another look, and so far he’s been quite impressive.
Recalled on July 31, more than three months after his abortive first stint in the majors ended, Holliday made an immediate impact by hitting a 439-foot grand slam off the Blue Jays’ Yerry Rodríguez for his first major league home run. He went hitless the next day, then peeled off three straight two-hit games against the Guardians; in the last of those, on Sunday, he hit a solo homer off Gavin Williams. He homered in his next two games as well, with a solo shot off the Blue Jays’ Chris Bassitt on Tuesday and a two-run blast off Ryan Burr on Wednesday:
That last homer turned a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 lead in what wound up as a 7-3 victory. It also made Holliday the youngest player in AL history to homer in three consecutive games, at 20 years and 247 days old. His streak ended on Thursday with an 0-for-4 night against the Blue Jays, though Holliday did collect an RBI for the sixth game in a row, driving in a run on a ninth-inning groundout.
Like teammates Adley Rutschman in 2022 and Gunnar Henderson in ’23, the 20-year-old Holliday entered the year as the consensus no. 1 prospect. He appeared on track to break camp with the Orioles given a strong performance in the Grapefruit League, but the team instead optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk in late March, with his limited experience at that level (18 games last year), at second base (26 games), and against upper-level left-handed pitching all apparently factoring into decision, as did a roster crunch.
Some of that may have been typical front office lip service, however, as Holliday didn’t have to wait long for his first opportunity. With a stretch of facing five lefty starters in their first nine games behind them, the Orioles called up Holliday, who had hit .333/.482/.595 through his first 10 games at Norfolk. He debuted on April 10 with an 0-for-4 showing against the Red Sox, striking out twice but driving in a run on an RBI groundout. Unfortunately, things didn’t get much better; in fact, he was utterly overmatched, going 2-for-34 with two walks and 18 strikeouts in 10 games. While general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde both publicly expressed confidence that Holliday would still become an impactful player soon, the Orioles optioned him to Norfolk on April 26.
“I think the bright side of this is he got very intense, very specific feedback from major league pitching,” Elias said at the time. “He’s a brilliant talent and a very sharp kid, and I expect he’s going to go implement those adjustments really quickly. But we felt that Triple-A and steady playing time in Triple-A was the place for that.”
Back at Norfolk, Holliday put up respectable numbers (.252/.418/.429) before missing two weeks in June due to elbow inflammation. Just days after he returned, colleague Eric Longenhagen noted some disconcerting aspects of his performance:
In a way, the IL stint was comforting because it offered a potential explanation for why Holliday’s performance and ferocious bat speed had tapered off a bit. Holliday’s spray chart shifted away from his pull side and moved toward left field and the third base line in the weeks leading up to his shelving. He was inside-outing lots of contact the opposite way, including pitches on the inner third of the plate that he typically turns on, and it was taking what appeared to be an uncomfortable and excessive amount of effort for him to swing hard.
Once he came off the IL at Norfolk, Holliday showed more power, but he was limited to DH duty until after the All-Star break. On July 29, a day before the trade deadline, Longenhagen further noted some defensive concerns, writing in his Top 100 Hitting Prospects Update, “He looks rather rusty and uncomfortable, if not still compromised to some extent. He’s making a lot of routine plays look harder than they need to be, and the quality of his hands has backed up.”
“[H]e does look like a 20-year-old lost in a sea of adults, and it’s become tough to make a strong argument for Holliday over James Wood right now,” concluded Longenhagen, who downgraded Holliday from a 70 FV prospect to a 65, which allowed Wood to take over the top spot on The Board.
While all of that was going down, so were Orioles infielders. On July 23, Mateo — who has made a team-high 52 starts at second base plus three at shortstop and two in center field — injured his left arm in a collision with Henderson. The 29-year-old infielder was diagnosed with an elbow subluxation and placed on the IL, while prospect Connor Norby was recalled from Norfolk. Five days and five starts at second base later, Norby was traded to the Marlins in a deal for Trevor Rogers; that same day, Mateo was transferred to the 60-day IL.
The next day, Holliday returned to the majors, but immediately before he hit his grand slam, Rodríguez drilled Westburg — who has made 64 starts at third base, 35 at second, and one at shortstop — in the right hand with a 95-mph fastball. The 25-year-old infielder suffered a fracture, interrupting a breakout season in which he’s hit .269/.317/.497 (129 wRC+) with 18 homers and earned All-Star honors. The hope is that he’ll be back in mid-September, in time to get tuned up for the postseason, but even given the Orioles’ depth, his absence looms large.
Those injuries have cleared a path for Holliday to get a long look at second base. As he’s still climbing out of the statistical hole he dug in April, his overall slash line looks pretty grim (.177/.239/.387, 76 wRC+ in 67 plate appearances), and the sample sizes for his splits are even smaller. But with the caveat that these numbers mostly haven’t reached the point of stabilizing, within those numbers we can at least discern some positive trends:
Jackson Holliday Splits
Split
PA
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
BB%
K%
1st Half
36
.111
.059
.170
-51
5.6%
50.0%
2nd Half
31
.321
.387
.786
224
6.5%
25.8%
The first big thing to note beyond the fact that he’s been productive since returning is that Holliday has gotten his strikeout rate under control. Mind you, he has struck out at least once in all 18 of his games, putting him one short of Austin Jackson’s 2010 record of 19 consecutive games with strikeouts to start a career.
The second thing to note is that Holliday has taken a more aggressive approach at the plate since returning. While he’s swinging at more pitches both in and out of the zone, he’s coming up empty less often:
Jackson Holliday Plate Discipline Splits
Split
O-Sw%
Z-Sw%
Sw%
O-Con%
Z-Con%
Con%
Zone%
SwStr%
1st Half
25.0%
55.6%
39.9%
31.6%
72.5%
59.3%
48.6%
16.2%
2nd Half
29.5%
64.5%
50.0%
46.2%
82.5%
73.6%
58.5%
13.2%
Total
26.7%
59.7%
44.1%
37.5%
77.5%
66.1%
52.8%
15.0%
I don’t think there’s much to be gleaned from his pitch-type splits since returning given that Holliday has seen fewer than a dozen examples of every offering besides four-seamers and sliders. His four homers have each come against a different pitch (four-seamer, slider, curve, cutter), so that’s something.
The third thing to note is that Holliday’s contact since returning has been loud:
Jackson Holliday Statcast Splits
Split
BBE
EV
LA
Barrel%
HH%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
1st Half
16
87.3
4.4
6.3%
37.5%
.059
.116
.059
.172
.087
.154
2nd Half
20
93.1
6.5
30.0%
70.0%
.321
.318
.786
.780
.486
.480
Total
36
90.5
5.6
19.4%
55.6%
.177
.207
.387
.447
.272
.305
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Of Holliday’s 20 batted balls since returning, 14 have been hard-hit balls with exit velocities of 95 mph or higher, 11 of them 100 mph or higher. Granted, six of those hard-hit balls have been grounders (five of at least 100 mph), but he’s turned three into singles, and even with his high groundball rate, he’s barreled half a dozen balls in this short time. His total of 36 batted balls is still short of the point of stabilization, but those barrel and hard-hit rates would both rank among the top half-dozen if they were maintained over (much) larger samples.
One more note on batted balls: Where Longenhagen was concerned with how often Holliday was hitting to the opposite field, his 55% pull rate and 20% oppo rates since returning — not to mention the fact that all four homers were to his pull side — suggest he’s moved past that issue. As for his defense, Holliday did make a nice pick to start what upon review proved to be a game-ending double play on July 31, but the jury is still out on his transition.
It’s premature to suggest Holliday has everything ironed out, but at the very least, he’s given the Orioles a most welcome boost. That still leaves them with numerous issues, however. Prospect Coby Mayo, who is no. 12 on The Board, was called up on August 2 to play third base, but so far he’s 0-for-13 with eight strikeouts; this week’s signing of free agent J.D. Davis, who hit just .218/.293/.338 (85 wRC+) for the A’s and Yankees, to a minor league contract suggests Mayo’s leash may not be long. Heston Kjerstad, who landed on the 7-day concussion IL after being beaned by a 97-mph Clay Holmes fastball on July 12, is back on the IL with lingering concussion symptoms after going just 2-for-18 upon returning. The reserve outfielder fitting into his roster slot, Austin Slater, has hit just .205/.331/.250 (77 wRC+) in his three-team odyssey this year.
More concerning is the rotation, which has already lost Kyle Bradish and John Means to Tommy John surgery and Tyler Wells to UCL brace surgery, and which has been lit for a 5.19 ERA and 4.66 FIP since the start of July, and has a 5.10 ERA even after the acquisitions of Rogers and Zach Eflin. Earlier this week, Grayson Rodriguez landed on the IL due a mild right lat strain. “He’s going to miss some time,” said Hyde. “We’re going to shut him down for a little while, get him some rest and recovery, get him some rehab. I think we’re optimistic about it.” His absence leaves a rather unimposing rotation behind ace Corbin Burnes, with Rogers and Eflin joined by Dean Kremer and swingman Albert Suárez. Of that group, only Burnes has an ERA below 4.00 since the start of July, with Kremer and Suárez well above 5.00. Fortunately for the Orioles, the Yankees have problems of their own, including a rotation that’s been even worse (5.59 ERA, 4.81 FIP) since the start of July, and unlike Elias, Brian Cashman did nothing to try to fix it at the deadline.
At this point, the division race looks like one between two rather flawed teams, and any advantages with regards to depth and player health could swing the balance. After a rough start, Holliday is not only fitting in but making an impact, and that can only help the Orioles.
Every summer, the Midwest Scouts Association, which is made up of scouting personnel from all 30 major league organizations, invites 50 high school players from throughout the region to participate in a two-day event in Kansas City. The event features a showcase portion at the Kansas City Royals’ Urban Youth Academy, as well as a seven-inning doubleheader the following day at Kauffman Stadium. It’s a fantastic opportunity to get a snapshot of how many of the top high school prospects in next year’s draft class look going into their senior year, with a handful of incoming juniors in the mix as well. The players are listed here in order of my preference based solely on my look from this particular event. With that, let’s take a look at some 2025 draft-eligible Midwest prep prospects.
Position Players
Landon Schaefer, SS, Fayetteville, AR College Commitment: Arkansas
Schaefer is committed to his hometown Razorbacks, but he’s going to get a lot of attention from amateur scouts leading up to the 2025 draft. He has a lean, athletic frame that leaves plenty of room to project on both his body and his tools. He hits out of an upright, square setup, and uses an abbreviated leg kick to trigger his long stride. Schaefer has a deep hand load that produces a 45-degree bat angle, which generates loft as he whips it through the hitting zone with above-average bat speed. He flashed above-average raw power to the pull side during batting practice and consistently did a nice job of incorporating his lower half in his hacks.
Defensively, Schaefer shows soft hands that look more than capable of staying up the middle on the dirt. He controls his 6-foot-3 frame well when ranging laterally, and while he isn’t overly twitchy, there’s a hint of quick-twitch in his movements, which are smooth and fluid overall. Right now, Schaefer has fringe-average arm strength at best, but given how projectable his frame is and how good of an athlete he is, it’s safe to anticipate that he’ll have at least average arm strength in the future. While there are some concerns to point to regarding whether he stays at shortstop long-term, the actions, body control, and hands he displayed give me confidence that he’ll be at least an above-average defender at second base if he ultimately moves off shortstop. Overall, it’s a well-rounded profile that brings value on both sides of the ball, and I think there will be quite a bit of buzz around Schaefer prior to next year’s draft.
Jackson Akin, SS, Lee’s Summit, MO College Commitment: Oklahoma
Akin has a very projectable, lean, long-levered physique, and it’s apparent his frame still has significant long-term strength potential. He hits out of a slightly open, semi-crouched stance and uses a simple stride to get to a square position at launch. Akin has an easy, rhythmic hand load, and a bat path that stays in the zone for an extended period while also creating loft. His solid bat speed and path showed above-average raw power during batting practice, both to the pull side and to the center of the diamond.
During Akin’s live at-bats, he was at times prone to expanding out of the zone against spin, but the projectability of his hit and power tools is appealing. Defensively, Akin showed average hands, with his compact arm path currently producing fringe-average carry on his throws. He’ll likely come off shortstop in the future, but the projection in his offensive profile is the main attraction.
Cole Pladson, OF, Clay Center, KS College Commitment: Oklahoma State
Pladson hits out of a square, balanced stance with a high-hands setup. It’s a repeatable operation in the box, with a leg lift stride and a rhythmic, medium hand load, and his high back elbow during his load creates loft in his path through the zone. Pladson does a nice job maintaining a still head throughout his swing and also shows feel for manipulating the barrel in the zone. He showcased solid-average bat speed and raw power, which showed up in game action for a pull side homer.
Pladson showed fringe-average arm strength during the defensive portion of the workout and ran a 6.64 second 60-yard dash. It’s an intriguing profile that looks to offer a projectable, well-rounded offensive skill set. Pladson is a prospect I think has notable helium potential. He’s a name to keep tabs on throughout this fall and next spring.
Cash Williams, C, Choctaw, OK College Commitment: Tennessee
Williams has an athletic, medium build with room to add strength in the future, but he doesn’t have an overly projectable frame. Williams gets his money’s worth with every swing he takes, whether it’s in batting practice or against live pitching, and even though he takes big hacks, his swing isn’t out of control and he isn’t completely lacking in barrel awareness. Williams uses a big leg kick and lengthy stride to generate leverage, with the amount of loft in his path geared for putting the ball in the air. It’s 50-grade bat speed through the zone, and Williams already shows average raw power that projects to above average in the near future.
Williams had agile movements behind the plate, but his receiving can get rigid at times and he has trouble sticking borderline pitches. Between how well he moves and the caliber of athlete he is, there’s plenty of reason to think his defensive profile will trend upward. Williams also showed above-average arm strength, and I had a 1.96 second pop time on him during game action despite the throw being a bit off the bag. He’s old for his class, and models will ding him heavily for that, but he had a good overall showing at this event.
Pitchers
Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Springfield, IL College Commitment: Uncommitted
FB: 89-93 / SL: 77-80 / CH: 82-84
A rangy, lean, and projectable left-hander, Appenzeller showed a three-pitch mix from a low three-quarters arm slot. In addition to his projectable frame, his overall delivery is fluid, repeatable and very starter-like. Appenzeller also has above-average hip/shoulder separation, providing further reason to dream on how much velocity there could be in the tank for a fastball that currently sits 89-93 mph with solid tail and sinking movement. His breaking ball often took the shape of a hybrid curveball/slider offering, with late tilting action and flashes of above-average teeth. He was also able to maintain proper arm speed on a few changeups he threw, with his best ones showing average fade and depth.
Given how much body and stuff projection there is in his profile, Appenzeller will undoubtedly draw a lot of looks from teams leading up to next year’s draft. Despite only getting a one-inning look, Appenzeller’s feel for command was apparent, as he landed both of his secondary pitches in the zone and flashed feel for locating his heater on both corners.
Grady Westphal, RHP, Leawood, KS College Commitment: Texas A&M
FB: 90-93 / SL: 80-83 / CH: 85-87
Westphal is a high-waisted, lean, projectable right-hander who still has a significant amount of room on his frame for future strength gains. Westphal throws from a three-quarters slot. His medium arm circle has a slight stab in its path, but his slightly open stride direction is a bigger red flag to me than anything about his arm path. His fastball sat in the low 90s, with carry through the zone that allows it to play above the velocity, and it’s likely to see further gains as the frame adds strength.
His breaking ball has three-quarters shape with two-plane action, and he broke off a couple with spin rates north of 3,000 rpm. He did show a tendency to throw the offering from a lower slot than his fastball, which is something he’ll need to clean up and get more consistent with. Westphal also threw a couple of changeups that mirrored his fastball arm speed, which produced fade and sinking action. Westphal’s projectable fastball and existing ability to spin a breaking ball make him an intriguing arm to follow this fall and next spring.
Tyler Wood, RHP, Lee’s Summit, MO College Commitment: Tennessee
FB: 92-95 / SL: 77-80
Wood is an athletic, lean two-way player who shined the most on the mound during this particular event. He showed above-average arm speed and throws from a high three-quarters slot. His 92-95 mph four-seam fastball showed solid carry through the zone (18-20 induced vertical break), and he did a nice job of filling up the zone with his heater. His best sliders were two-plane breakers that flashed above-average bite; they shorten up a bit when he gets on the side of them. Wood also showed a changeup during his warmups, but I didn’t have him throwing one during game action.
The already present athleticism and stuff make Wood an intriguing pitching prospect, and his ceiling on the mound looks to be significantly higher than it is in the outfield. He’ll be a fun one to watch throughout his senior year.
Brody Irlbeck, LHP, Kansas City, MO College Commitment: Iowa
FB: 90-92 / CB: 74-76 / CH: 79
Irlbeck has a skinny, underdeveloped build that could lead to significant velocity/stuff gains once it matures. He throws from a low three-quarters slot with a lengthy, fluid arm circle that’s loose and quick, which contributes to his fastball sneaking up on hitters despite sitting 90-92 mph. His heater also flashed notable late tailing action that generated some whiffs in the zone. Multiple area scouts who have more history with Irlbeck and have seen him more times in person told me that his command has been shaky in years past but has been trending up more recently. In this particular one-inning outing, he consistently commanded the ball to both sides of the plate and effectively elevated as well. His curveball had 1-to-7 shape with varying degrees of depth, but it regularly showed average tightness. He only threw two changeups, both of which showed late fading action and were thrown with quality arm speed.
Irlbeck had a sharp inning of work but the most appealing aspect of his profile is the degree to which you can project on him. Not only is his frame incredibly projectable, but his plus hip/shoulder separation and the fluidity in his arm action make it a good bet there’s more than just a little velocity on the horizon for him. If Irlbeck’s command continues to trend upwards and is consistent while doing so, this very well might be a name with helium prior to next year’s draft.
If you know a Mets fan, you’re probably familiar with the speech. The speech starts like this: “Francisco Lindor is the most underrated player in baseball.” The pronunciation is really important here. You have to pronounce the so that it rhymes with he, and you have to put a big long pause between under and rated. Those are the rules. From that starting point, the speech generally continues for somewhere between 30 seconds and six hours, touching on offense, defense, MLB Network rankings, and at least two versions of WAR. I’ve never been all that sure whether the speech was necessarily true. Lindor’s greatness has always struck me as impossible to ignore. As one of the game’s premier defenders, according to both the advanced metrics and the eye test, he’s always on the highlight reels. He’s received MVP votes in six different seasons and won two Gold Gloves, one Platinum Glove, and three Silver Sluggers. He’s just 30 years old, and he’s already got the 25th-best JAWS score among all shortstops. He’s still adding to his seven-year peak, too. When I started writing this article yesterday, he ranked 26th.
But maybe I’m part of the problem. Maybe while I’ve been taking it for granted that everyone knows about Lindor’s greatness, other people have actually been taking Lindor’s greatness for granted. That would be uncool. As such, this is your annualreminder of just how great Francisco Lindor is. Because we’ve done this before, we’ll take a different tack and focus on things Lindor hasn’t done.
Be an Average Hitter
Lindor is now in his 10th big league season, and he’s never once put up a wRC+ below 101. We’ve seen Lindor have a down year at the plate, but even at his worst, he’s still been an above-average hitter. He graced the pages of FanGraphs for the first time in 2012 in an article with a title that fit perfectly with the auspiciousness of the moment: Midwest League Prospect Update. In it, Mike Newman called Lindor “A gold glove shortstop in the making,” but also wrote, “Lindor may wind up being a bit BABIP dependent.” As it turns out, even in 2021, when Lindor’s BABIP fell all the way to .248, seventh lowest among all qualified players, he managed to be an above-average hitter. I don’t bring that up to rag on Mike. If you remember the beginning of Lindor’s career, you know that although he hit throughout the minors, the hype around his glove was understandably louder. But the consistency is remarkable, especially from a switch-hitter. His career wRC+ is 126 from the right side and 115 from the left side. He’s only put up a below-average wRC+ from either side of the plate twice: He had a 94 wRC+ from the right side in 2016, and a 96 mark in ’21. According to our database, there have been 549 primary shortstops who made at least a thousand plate appearances in the AL and NL since 1903. Lindor’s career 119 wRC+ ranks 19th.
This season, Lindor’s 125 wRC+ puts him on pace for his fifth career season above 120. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. August is always a down period for me when it comes to baseball watching. July has everything now. There’s the All-Star Game, the draft, and the trade deadline. Our trade value series comes out sandwiched in between. From late June through July 31, it’s full tilt baseball, and the first few weeks of August are a letdown by comparison. This year, the Olympics fit into that gap perfectly, and I’ve been watching whatever random event catches my eye the same way I usually flip between baseball games. But fear not: There’s plenty of baseball still going on, and I can’t stay away for long. I’m back in the saddle, and this week has a ton of great plays to choose from. And thanks, as always, to ESPN’s Zach Lowe for the format I’m borrowing here.
1. Twists and Turns in Pittsburgh
What kind of lunatic would say that August is the baseball doldrums? Oh, me? Well, ignore me, because some of the games this week have had juice. The Pirates are clinging to the periphery of the Wild Card race, while the Padres are roaring toward October with an absolutely scalding month of baseball. When the two teams faced off for their series opener in Pittsburgh this week, the Pirates were a game above .500, and after dropping that first game, they came back strong on Wednesday.
Some early offense staked the Pirates to a 6-5 lead even after starter Marco Gonzales got roughed up. Their best relievers were available. It looked like they might wriggle through. But Aroldis Chapman was a bit wild, and the Padres put two runners in scoring position with Manny Machado at the plate. No problem – Chapman just pulled out maybe the best pitch I’ve ever seen: Read the rest of this entry »
On Thursday morning the White Sox sat at 28-89, recently having broken a 21-game losing streak. Which looks bad, but consider that Chicago is on pace to lose three more games than the 1962 Mets did. Or that over a comparable period — their last 117 games — the Vanderbilt Commodores football team is 40-77. (Vanderbilt’s past 117 games includes a winless season.) So the White Sox cashiered manager Pedro Grifol.
Yeah, that’ll fix the problem.
Immediately, thoughts turned to which unfortunate would be handed this hospital pass of a team. Especially because the traditional next man up for an in-season firing is the bench coach, and Charlie Montoyo (who has recent MLB managerial experience with the Blue Jays) was among the casualties.
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
Last week, I explained how players can still change teams even as trades are no longer allowed. Now that we’re a week-plus into August, I’d like to run down the list of players who could be placed on irrevocable waivers before the month ends, which is the latest that a team can claim them and still have them be eligible for the playoffs. Players placed on waivers are first offered to the worst team in the league, then to the other clubs in ascending order all the way up to the one with the best record at the time of the waiver placement.
I’ll be focusing on teams with playoff odds below 5%, though contending teams teams could see if a rival wants to bite on an onerous contract. (Spoiler alert: they will not.) As a reminder, when a player is claimed off waivers, it’s a straight claim. The team that loses the player gets nothing more than salary relief, as the new team is responsible for the remainder of the contract. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the White Sox and the etiquette and timing of firing the manager of one of the worst teams of all time, Logan O’Hoppe and performance anxiety, Brusdar Graterol and the most demoralizing kind of injury, the return of Anthony Gose, next season’s scheduled game at Bristol Motor Speedway, other unorthodox potential locations for MLB games, and why baseball fields are deepest in center, Aroldis Chapman’s freakish velocity and durability, Craig Kimbrel, Grayson Rodriguez, and the outlook for the Orioles’ rotation, the recent performances of Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, and Jackson Merrill, what Bobby Witt Jr.’s progression says about the aging curve, and more.
Josh Bell has only been a Diamondback for a little over a week, but in that short time, he’s made his presence felt. Acquired just ahead of the trade deadline in a deal with the Marlins, Bell stepped in for the injured Christian Walker and homered twice in his debut against the Pirates on August 2. On Wednesday he did it again, bashing two homers in the nightcap of a doubleheader against the Guardians in Cleveland. The Diamondbacks swept the pair of games, moving them into a tie for the National League Wild Card lead and into second in the rapidly tightening NL West race.
Indeed, the Padres aren’t the only NL West team that has gained traction in both races lately. With the sweep, the Diamondbacks have now won 18 of their last 23 games, a run that has rocketed them from two games below .500 to 11 games above while nearly tripling their odds of making the playoffs:
Diamondbacks Change in Playoff Odds
Date
W
L
W%
WC GB
Win Div
Clinch Bye
Clinch WC
Make Playoffs
Win WS
July 9
45
47
.489
2.5
1.6%
0.9%
25.5%
27.2%
1.4%
August 7
63
52
.548
+2
11.7%
10.1%
64.1%
75.8%
4.5%
Change
+10.1%
+9.2%
+38.6%
+48.6%
+3.1%
That 18-5 record is the majors’ best in that span, 2.5 games better than the Padres (14-6). The Diamondbacks have done it against a mix of good teams (the Braves, Guardians and Royals occupy playoff positions at this writing, and the Pirates have been right around .500) and not-so-good ones (the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Nationals). Not only are the Diamondbacks now tied with the Padres for the Wild Card lead, they’ve trimmed the Dodgers’ division lead to three games — as close as they’ve been since April 24 — which has really goosed their Playoff Odds. Read the rest of this entry »
Back in February, I wrote (and sang) about the electric debut of Edouard Julien, which featured excellent plate discipline and extreme platoon splits. The rookie second baseman ran a 136 wRC+ and put up 2.8 WAR in just 109 games, then hit even better in the postseason. Facing a steady diet of righties, Julien balanced out a precipitously high strikeout rate with an even better walk rate. He also balanced out roughly average raw power by hitting the ball hard consistently. This season, however, his strikeout rate has gone from high to untenable and his contact quality has taken a significant step back. Julien was sent down to Triple-A St. Paul to figure things out in June. Let’s take a look at what’s going on and how he might be able to fix it.
We should start by making it clear that Julien’s season, while disappointing, has not been disastrous by any means. He has a 93 wRC+, including a much improved 98 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (though once again it’s an extremely small sample size). He’s also improved his defense, and as a result, he’s put up 0.8 WAR over his 63 games with Minnesota. Prorated out over a full 162-game season, he’s right around league average at 2.1 WAR. Read the rest of this entry »
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