FanGraphs Baseball

Cubs-Indians: Game Six Notes

Following their Game Five win at Wrigley Field, Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was asked about his club’s mood as they prepared to head to Cleveland, down three games to two.

“We are fired up,” responded Contreras. “We are going to go out there Tuesday and play our best baseball.”

They did exactly that. There was no Indian summer in Cleveland last night — it was 71 degrees at first pitch — as the Cubs won 9-3, setting up a decisive Game Seven.

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“It’s fun,” Anthony Rizzo said afterward. “Any Game Seven. I was at a Game Seven when the Blackhawks won. It was a Game Seven. It’s must watch if you’re a fan. Not just baseball. Game Seven of any sport is must watch.”

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Tonight’s Game Seven will be the 38th in World Series history. Of the previous 37, the home team has been victorious 18 times and the road team has been victorious 19 times.

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David Ross will put on a big-league uniform — at least as a player — for the last time tonight. The 39-year-old catcher didn’t sound too focused on his imminent retirement leading into Game Seven.

“All I’m going to be worried about is winning the World Series,” said Ross. “Screw my career. Let’s win the World Series.”

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The Indians have received a lot of kudos for their game-planning throughout the postseason. The Cubs deserve kudos of their own. Advance scouting has played a big role for the data-driven squad.

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The Argument for Starting David Ross in Game Seven

Unofficially, Game 6 was over in the blink of an eye. Officially, it wasn’t complete for three and a half hours, but from close to the start, most fans were thinking ahead to Wednesday. Even while Game 6 was going, Game 7 was on everyone’s mind, as we prepared for the most anticipated showdown in, what, at least 15 years? You’re on this site right now to read about baseball, but you’re not looking to read about the game in the books. You want to read about the finale. Nothing is ever as important as it is in the finale.

Game 7 presents a funny situation. It’s one game, so it could turn on almost literally anything. In Game 6, after all, the biggest point according to win expectancy was Addison Russell’s routine fly ball that somehow dropped between two outfielders. Who would’ve guessed? You can’t predict any one-game scenario. At the same time, it’s never more critical to maximize the odds. Strategic calls are at their most important. Bullpen usage is at its most important. Lineup construction is at its most important. There’s nothing after Game 7 but gray clouds and winter. Half of the players will have a happier winter than the others.

As that lineup construction goes for the Cubs — look, I don’t want to deceive you. This isn’t that critical. What I’m writing about probably won’t make the biggest difference. But I see a case for starting David Ross over Willson Contreras. It has a lot to do with a guy supposedly available out of the bullpen.

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Aroldis Chapman and the Cost of Risk Aversion

In order to keep their season alive, the Cubs had to win Game Six. They won Game Six. Tomorrow, they play for all the marbles, with one more win bringing the franchise their first championship in 108 years. From that perspective, tonight was a success. Full stop.

But that perspective is a particularly binary view of the world, with only good and bad outcomes, and no room for the shades of gray that make up real life. In this world, things can be somewhat good, or very good, or painfully awful, or just kind of not great. In this world, we have not two possible outcomes, but thousands of them, with differing levels of magnitude. And from a perspective that accounts for the different magnitudes of outcomes, this Cubs win isn’t quite as great as it could have been. This win came with a cost, and probably unnecessarily so.

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2016 World Series Game 6 Live Blog

8:02
Dave Cameron: Welcome to the Game 6 live blog!

8:02
Dave Cameron: Eno Sarris and I will be your hosts tonight.

8:02
Dave Cameron:

Who wins tonight?

Cubs (72.7% | 163 votes)
 
Indians (27.2% | 61 votes)
 

Total Votes: 224
8:02
Dave Cameron:

How many innings does Andrew Miller go tonight?

1 (10.9% | 21 votes)
 
2 (48.6% | 93 votes)
 
3 (19.3% | 37 votes)
 
All of them (20.9% | 40 votes)
 

Total Votes: 191
8:03
Dave Cameron:

How many innings does Aroldis Chapman go tonight?

1 (55.3% | 104 votes)
 
2 (40.4% | 76 votes)
 
3 (4.2% | 8 votes)
 

Total Votes: 188
8:03
desertfox9139: can miller go 4 innings tonight if he is averaging 10 to 12 pitches per inning?

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The World Series Strike Zone’s Been Almost Perfectly Even

Yesterday I slapped together an InstaGraphs post about a Jon Lester strikeout of Brandon Guyer. It was a called strikeout on a pitch off the plate, but it was also a strikeout Lester has recorded several dozen times before. That part, I found interesting. But the call was also important in the moment. It changed the Indians’ odds of winning Game 5 by 10 percentage points, and during the game I tweeted that out with a screenshot. I didn’t expect the tweet to blow up like it did.

This isn’t supposed to be boastful. Wow, retweets, all right. Nobody cares. What happened as a consequence of that tweet going around was that countless different people started showing up in my mentions. And wouldn’t you know it, but those people had opinions about the strike zone! Some people were convinced the umpires were in the tank for the Cubs. Other people were convinced the Indians didn’t have any right to complain after calls they’d gotten earlier. More people still accused me of whining for some reason, as if a screenshot and a fact are opinions. The overall response was emotionally charged. Maybe not a surprise, in a World Series elimination game, but people were stirred the hell up.

Guess what! The zone’s been even. The Indians have gotten calls in their favor. The Cubs have also gotten calls in their favor. The World Series isn’t over yet, of course, but through the five games we’ve watched, neither team has really gotten a more favorable zone to pitch around.

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2016 World Series Netting Historic TV Ratings

This past Sunday night, one of the most important baseball games of the year went head-to-head with a primetime regular-season NFL broadcast on NBC. Millions more opted to watch the Chicago Cubs host their final home game of the year and stave off elimination in a close game. That Major League Baseball went head-to-head with the NFL and won isn’t that big of a deal. That MLB has garnered ratings not seen in a decade, however — and bested the top-rated program in all of television over the past few years — represents a big win for a sport receiving near-constant criticism for sagging ratings.

The broadcast of Game Five on Sunday night was one of the highest-rated broadcasts for the World Series in years. Since Boston ended their 86-year championship drought back in 2004, only one game has drawn more than the 23.6 million viewers Cleveland and Chicago netted on Sunday night: Game Seven of the 2011 World Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers. If you remove clinching games, it was one of the most viewed games of the century. The table below shows the most-viewed non-clinching games since 2000, the year FOX exclusively began broadcasting the World Series.

Most-Viewed Non-Clinching World Series Games Since 2000
Series Year Game Viewers
BOS-STL 2004 2 25.46 M
BOS-STL 2004 3 24.42 M
ARI-NYY 2001 4 23.69 M
CHC-CLE 2016 5 23.60 M
ARI-NYY 2001 2 23.55 M
ARI-NYY 2001 3 23.41 M
BOS-STL 2004 1 23.17 M
NYY-PHI 2009 4 22.76 M
ARI-NYY 2001 6 22.67 M
ARI-NYY 2001 5 21.32 M
STL-TEX 2011 6 21.07 M
FLA-NYY 2003 4 20.88 M
FLA-NYY 2003 2 20.55 M
SOURCE: Sports Media Watch

More people tuned into to see Sunday night’s World Series game than watched Game One in 2004 when the Red Sox began their attempt to end the curse. The game drew more viewers than the epic extra-inning Game Six between the Cardinals and Rangers in 2011. Indeed, only one non-2004 World Series game exceeded Sunday night’s in terms of viewership: the Diamondbacks-Yankees contest from 2001, best remembered for Derek Jeter’s 10th-inning walk-off homer against Byung-Hyun Kim.

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Logging Off

I’ve been thinking about how to start this post for a week, and it looks like I’ve decided on writing about how I’m still thinking about what to write. I guess I always have been better at talking about baseball than about myself.

The conclusion of the World Series will also mark the conclusion of my tenure at FanGraphs. Later this week, I’ll begin my new job working for a major league front office. I can’t say too much about the specifics of what it is I will be doing or who I’ll be doing it for, but just know that it is an incredible opportunity, and one which I am unbelievably excited to begin.

On the one hand, this was an easy choice for me to make. I’m living out a childhood dream, doing what I can to help a major league baseball team win actual games (I think I can finally give up my dream of one day playing). On the other hand, it was an incredibly difficult decision to make. I adore FanGraphs. I look up to my co-workers. I love interacting with each and every one of you, the readers, in my chats, on Twitter, and even in the comments (mostly). There’s so much about this job that I love. Writing about baseball for a living, for FanGraphs in particular, was a dream I set out to achieve in college. Working for a major league front office was a dream I never realistically thought I could achieve. I’m beyond grateful to have been given both of these opportunities.

There’s no sense in this going on any longer than it has, but I have to thank Dave Cameron and David Appelman for taking a chance on me two-and-a-half years ago based on a silly article I wrote in the Community Blog section about Brian Dozier’s baserunning. My first article for the main site was a silly one about Kurt Suzuki’s baserunning, so shout out to the Twins, too, I guess. The Davids gave me my first real shot in this industry, and without them, none of the opportunities I’ve been given since them would be possible. I will forever be grateful toward these two people, not just on a professional level, but more importantly on a personal level, too.

Thanks to Jeff Sullivan and Eno Sarris and all the amazing writers here at FanGraphs who inspired me to be a better writer long before I began working for the site, and then especially once my work began appearing alongside theirs. Thanks to Carson Cistulli for putting up with my habitual tardiness and for making the posts I gave him enough time to edit become much better than what I gave him. Thanks to all the guys in the Cleveland media who have made my time in the Progressive Field press box these last three years so much fun, and to all the fellow writers I’ve met over the years who welcomed me with open arms into your awesome, unique, talented community. And lastly, thank you, the reader. The readership of FanGraphs is such a fantastic, bright, curious group of individuals who genuinely inspire and challenge all of us to be better at our jobs. I can’t thank you all enough for reading along.

I suppose it’s only fitting that my goodbye post went several hundred words longer than I intended it to. And there aren’t even any .gifs.


FanGraphs Audio: More Dave Cameron on the World’s Series

Episode 695
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio, he examines Aroldis Chapman, Joe Maddon, and the latter’s management of the former in the World Series; considers Chicago’s susceptibility to the breaking ball and Cleveland’s use of it; and determines which club stands to benefit most from a championship.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

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00:39:30

Joe Maddon’s Other Relief Option Tonight

Earlier today, Nick Stellini made his FanGraphs debut with a piece about Joe Maddon’s bullpen options for tonight’s win-or-go-home Game 6. As Nick noted, Maddon has seemingly lost faith in the two guys who anchored his bullpen for most of the year: Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop. Strop, particularly, has been out of the loop, as he’s faced just four batters so far in this series. Given how dominant Strop was in the regular season, he was supposed to be a big part of their October bullpen, but given his usage and performance since coming off the disabled list at the end of September, it seems pretty likely that Maddon doesn’t think he’s at 100%.

Strop, Pre-DL and Post-DL
Date BB% K% GB% ERA FIP xFIP
April – August 8% 32% 60% 2.89 2.87 2.60
September – October 12% 15% 43% 3.11 3.61 5.23

Hector Rondon’s issues are more obvious. He faced 49 batters in August and September between battling arm issues and serving time on the DL, and those 49 batters hit .422/.469/.778 against him. In the postseason, Rondon has faced 25 more batters, and they’ve gone .333/.360/.542, which only counts as improvement because he was basically the worst pitcher in baseball the last two months of the year. Given that he hasn’t gotten hitters out regularly since July, it’s pretty unlikely we’re going to see Rondon pitching in a high leverage situation tonight.

So, to Nick’s point, the bridge between Jake Arrieta and Aroldis Chapman is pretty shaky. Mike Montgomery provides a good left-handed option, but Cleveland has some guys you don’t want to send a lefty up against in the middle of their order, so what Maddon could really use is a quality right-hander to help him get the ball from his starter to his closer. And that’s why I wouldn’t be surprised to see John Lackey come out of the bullpen tonight.

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The Cubs Will Be Made or Broken by Their Bullpen

Oh, how quickly the tables were turned.

The Cubs, they of the 103 regular-season wins, entered the World Series as the presumptive favorites in the minds of nearly all who chose to be foolish enough to actually forecast the madness that is postseason baseball. The Cubs have the star power and the narrative and the Kris Bryant. That didn’t matter, because the Indians have the pitching. They have Corey Kluber and Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw. Chicago now teeters at the precipice of elimination, a hair’s breadth from breaking the hearts of Cubs fans everywhere. Joe Maddon will need to play his hand tonight perfectly, because if they don’t succeed tonight, there will be no Game Seven over which to agonize. He’ll need to save the season, and he’ll need his bullpen to do it.

Given that the Cubs have almost no margin for error at this point, they will need to maximize run prevention above all else. Cleveland will be deploying Josh Tomlin and Kluber in games Six and Seven, respectively, along with a likely heavy dosage of Miller. Runs will be at a premium. Kyle Schwarber will be back in the Chicago lineup, which will help, but there’s only so much he can do when Willson Contreras and Javy Baez are swinging at pitches thrown into the next state and Jason Heyward’s bat is on the side of a milk carton. These games will be about preventing runs, not scoring them.

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