Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/12/15

11:43
Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. The queue is now open.

11:59
Dave Cameron: Okay, we’ll kick this off a few minutes early. There’s some chance that this will be an abbreviated week, as our nanny is on vacation and the in-laws are out of town, so I’ve enlisted the help of some friends to watch our kid for a few hours, but there’s some chance this could go the way of the Padres outfield defense, so we’ll see how long he makes it.

11:59
Comment From Shawn
Do you see the Jays or Yankees making a significant move before the August Deadline ?

12:00
Dave Cameron: Yankees make the most sense for Chase Utley. The Blue Jays need an LH outfielder, and so maybe someone like Alejandro De Aza or a guy like that fits.

12:00
Comment From Hank
You think Jose Berrios gets the call here soon?

12:00
Dave Cameron: The Twins aren’t really in the playoff hunt anymore, so I don’t see a big reason to push him.

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NERD Game Scores for Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Zimmermann (141.1 IP, 102 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (154.0 IP, 55 xFIP-)
The Nationals and Dodgers, both currently situated deep within the throes of postseason contention, have split the first two games of their important series at the latter’s home park. While, in a literal sense, the two clubs have actually participated in that pair of contests and thousands have gathered to observe them, the results have produced roughly the same effect as an alternate scenario in which neither game was played at all. Indeed, everyone involved could merely have stayed home — or dined out with friends at one of Los Angeles County’s excellent restaurants — and found the two clubs occupying basically the same place as today. Which, that awful reality noted, one notes furthermore that today’s game actually will produce a series winner, thus rendering the entire endeavor something slightly better than totally meaningless.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Radio.

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Today’s MLB Network Game to Feature Advanced Metrics

Advanced stats have had a huge influence on baseball over the last generation. Every front office makes use of statistics, metrics, and methods that would fall under the umbrella of sabermetrics. Websites and blogs like this one, meanwhile, have created a niche for interested fans to absorb the game through a sabermetric prism. While the clubs have embraced sabermetrics in the name of remaining competitive, and online media have formed around a collection of die-hards, getting modern statistics onto broadcasts has been a more challenging endeavor.

We’ve seen many broadcasts make an effort to adapt to the changing climate, but there remains a delicate balance between providing sabermetric information and appealing to the widest possible audience. Given that there is only a single radio and television broadcast experience for each club, networks have been cautious about radical changes to the way they present games given that a large portion of their audience does not a regularly visit sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Beyond the Box Score.

On Wednesday afternoon (3:30pm Eastern), MLB Network will roll out a new format for calling live games that diverges from standard broadcast paradigm. Brian Kenny will be joined by Kevin Millar, Jim Duquette, and Rob Neyer to provide play-by-play and analysis for the Astros-Giants game based around the network’s sabermetric-friendly talk show, MLB Now.

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Picking My Four Years

Last week, I asked you a question that took me something like 900 words. Here, I’ll summarize in a sentence: As a baseball fan, would you prefer your team have a stretch of success without a championship, or a championship surrounded by a few years of disappointment? This is the post, with the poll at the end. As my stand-in teams, I used the recent Detroit Tigers and the recent Boston Red Sox. More than 3,500 of you responded. The results were interesting; no matter what, the results were always going to be interesting. Roughly 2,000 of you took the Red Sox. Roughly 1,500 of you took the Tigers. Things weren’t split right down the middle, but they were in the vicinity, with people showing a slight preference for the trophy.

I figured I’d write a short post outlining my thoughts. Because this is based on opinion and emotion, this is necessarily self-centered, and you can consider yourself invited to close this window if you don’t give a hoot what I think. I don’t know why you would. But I started it, so I might as well weigh in at some point. And a number of people asked where I stood in last Friday’s chat.

I’ve thought about it — I’ve thought about it for years — and I know where I am. Before I proceed, though, I want to embed two more polls. These are polls I wish I would’ve initially included. The polls are the same as before, but they’re selective: One is just for fans who’ve witnessed a championship. The other is for the others. I can’t make you vote honestly, but I don’t know what the point would be of trying to troll this. Vote if you’d like! My own thoughts are below.

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Brandon Nimmo: A Mets Prospect on Hitting

Brandon Nimmo is one step closer to the big leagues. He’s also off to a good start in Sin City. The Mets promoted the 22-year-old outfield prospect to Las Vegas at the end of July, and he’s finding Triple-A to his liking. In 12 games with the 51s, Nimmo is hitting a handsome .297/.413/.405.

The sample size is small, but at the same time, it’s indicative of his potential. Drafted 13th overall out of a Cheyenne, Wyoming high school, in 2011, Nimmo is one of the top prospects in the New York system. A lanky left-handed hitter, he’s been compared to Miami’s Christian Yelich. He’s comparably raw – remember, Wyoming – but the styles are similar.

Nimmo discussed his hitting approach, and touched on his Citi Field ETA, during last month’s Eastern League All-Star game.

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Brandon Nimmo on hitting: “My plan is simply to hit something hard. I’m not trying to hit home runs, or anything like that. Home runs are actually mistakes that come from getting under the ball a little bit. I’m trying to hit line drives, and if I can get something on the barrel, that’s where I’m going to have the most velocity and the most chance of having something fall. I want to be short and direct to the ball. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs After Dark – 8/11/15

5:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everyody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to talk some baseball. Until then, I’m going to go eat this tub of sugar cookies I bought for my son’s playdate today that he and his friends decided they didn’t like.

See you soon!

9:01
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Hey

9:02
Comment From Foz
Gardner or Eaton rest of the way?

9:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Gardner, a little more history of producing

9:04
Paul Swydan: Pretty close to dead even:

http://www.fangraphs.com/pr…

But I agree with Jeff.

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Adam Eaton Is Up to Something

Pardon me; I don’t mean to interrupt your afternoon. If you’re here, though, you might well be a bit curious about Adam Eaton. Which is good, because I am, too! To get started, you know those player caps we have on most pages? The profiles and quick opinions, I mean, written by various FanGraphs authors. They’re written during the winter, providing brief player analysis, and here’s a link to Adam Eaton’s page. I’m going to pull a little excerpt. This isn’t intended to pick on Chris Cwik. Anyone would’ve written the following.

Since Eaton isn’t going to add any pop, his performance will likely be based on the guys behind him.

Made total sense at the time. Eaton is a little dude, with an extended track record of hitting groundballs. Last year, as an everyday player, Eaton was literally out-homered by Ben Revere. He went deep just the once, and so he was seemingly easy to project. Speed and contact. Decent number of walks. We all knew what Adam Eaton was, up until we didn’t. This season, Eaton’s already knocked nine dingers. Put another way, he’s tied with Adrian Beltre. Chase Headley and Jason Heyward, too. Adam Eaton wasn’t going to add any pop. Adam Eaton added a lot of pop.

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Anibal Sanchez: Embodiment of the 2015 Tigers

It’s not uncommon for a narrative to develop around a great team — nor, specifically, for it to develop around the particular player on that great team who best represents the collective identity. For a club that exhibits a lot of power, the most powerful player is the focus. When a team is full of idiots, the most idiotic player garners a lot of attention. For a young team, the youngest, a gritty team, the grittiest, etc. These portrayals might not be entirely accurate, but they help tell stories and mold perspectives about a club’s identity as they march closer to the end of the season and, subsequently, the playoffs. Repeating the exercise for a disappointing, mediocre team can be an interesting process. So it is with this season’s Detroit Tigers and the one player who most embodies their season: Anibal Sanchez.

Injuries to players like Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander have played a role in Detroit’s disappointing 54-57 season, but Cabrera hit incredibly well for half a season and has already produced an above-average line. Verlander, a focal point for the club in the past, has barely pitched at all this season, lacking the requisite presence to represent the 2015 Detroit Tigers. Ian Kinsler has had an odd, but effective season. J.D. Martinez has had another great year, and Yoenis Cespedes had played very well before his trade to the New York Mets. The offense has not been the Tigers’s problem this season with one of the better run-scoring teams in the majors and a 109 wRC+ to back it up. The defense has been average overall so the onus shifts to the pitching.

The bullpen has been bad, ahead of only Boston’s and Texas’s while sitting at essentially replacement-level. If you are looking for someone to blame for the season, the bullpen is an easy target, having recorded just 27 saves against 14 blown saves — and their ranks for both Shutdowns and Meltdowns are near the bottom third of all bullpens. Simply being the weak link on the Tigers does not make the bullpen representative of the team at large, however. Despite the mess of a bullpen, the team is still close to .500 — and Detroit has succeeded in previous years despite similarly weak collection of relievers. So we move to the rotation. David Price was phenomenal, Alfredo Simon exceeded his projections, Justin Verlander has been bullpen-level bad, and none of the other starters had any expectations on them heading into the season, leaving Anibal Sanchez as both a player with decent expectations and a failure to reach them.

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The Overachieving Underachieving Blue Jays Juggernaut

As a counter to the idea that baseball is complicated and unpredictable: sometimes, baseball can seem ever so easy to understand. Not long ago, the Blue Jays traded for Troy Tulowitzki, perhaps or probably the very best shortstop. Shortly thereafter, the Jays also traded for David Price, easily one of the very best starting pitchers. Since Tulowitzki joined the lineup, the Jays have gone 11-1, and the one loss was a Tulowitzki day off. Over the weekend, the Jays pulled closer to the Yankees by sweeping them in their own stadium. Why wouldn’t that happen? Two superstars were added to what was already a pretty good club. Pretty good + superstars = even better! We’ve figured this game out.

The Jays have eaten up ground faster than anyone could’ve reasonably imagined. Sometimes there are concerns that adding pieces at the deadline can disrupt a clubhouse atmosphere, but all the lights are green in Toronto, and the probabilities that encouraged Alex Anthopoulos to act aggressively have only gotten significantly more positive, validating the moves that were made. The Jays are built to bludgeon, but they’ve also meaningfully improved the pitching staff, with everything clicking about perfectly at the moment. The question now needs to be asked: how good is this team? When a team’s on a winning streak, it’s almost impossible to imagine it losing. The Jays will lose, and they’ll do it several times. But is any other team positioned to lose less?

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College Team USA Top 20 Prospects: Nos. 11-20

It will be a challenge for the 2015 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team (CNT) to match what the previous two editions of the club have achieved in terms of the draft. The 2014 CNT produced 10 first-rounders in this year’s draft, including five of the top six college players taken as well as four of the top six picks overall. The 2013 CNT also produced 10 first-rounders.

That’s why ranking the top-20 prospects on Team USA isn’t an easy exercise. The majority of the players have the tools to land in the first round, so there are a few places on this list where the talent runs together. Nevertheless, the obvious strength of this year’s team was power arms with pitchability. The weakness was the lack of impact middle infielders.

Because of the length of this feature, we decided to split the list into two parts. The top 10 prospects will be coming tomorrow.

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