FanGraphs Baseball

Ben and Sam talk to Ryan Thibodaux about what he’s learned from his effort to track Hall of Fame ballots.

A plethora of under-the-radar transactions take place every offseason. One you might have missed happened last week when Stephen Fife signed with the Chicago Cubs. The 29-year-old right-hander, fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, was inked to a minor-league deal that includes a spring training invite to big-league camp.

If you’re not a Dodgers diehard, you probably aren’t aware that Fife was one of six Los Angeles pitchers to start 10-or-more games for the 2013 NL West champions. He finished that year 4-4 with a 3.86 ERA, but was unceremoniously left off the postseason roster. Come playoff time, he was told he wasn’t welcome in the dugout, although he could come to the games and watch from the stands.

Originally in the Red Sox organization, Fife came to LA as part of a three-team trade in July 2011. According to Fife, he turned a corner the following season with the help of Josh Bard. The newly-named Dodgers bullpen coach was one of the club’s catchers that season, and he told Fife that adjustments were in order. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Generally, the bigger and longer the deal, the riskier. It doesn’t follow, of course, that the opposite makes the shortest, smallest deal the best, but it does make it less risky. And, when it comes to a guy like Nate Jones, who the White Sox just signed to an interesting deal, risk is the key word. The particulars of the deal, though, reduced the risk to the team, while also adding reward.

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The Mariners openly referred to Hisashi Iwakuma as their No. 1 offseason priority. Then they saw him reach a three-year agreement with the Dodgers worth $45 million, so they gave up, because they had to, and moved on to Wade Miley. Just days ago, Jerry Dipoto said he was basically done tweaking the roster. Everything was more or less set where he wanted. But you can’t predict random chaos. See, there are contracts that are agreed to, and there are contracts that are official. Before Iwakuma’s Dodger contract could become official, he had to pass a physical exam, and he failed it. As soon as Dipoto heard about that, he got ownership approval and moved in. I just finished watching a press conference announcing Iwakuma’s return to Seattle.

It happened fast, and Jon Heyman has the terms. Earlier Thursday, word spread Iwakuma had failed the physical. By Thursday night, the Mariners said they had him re-signed. Iwakuma gets a $1-million signing bonus, and a $10-million salary for 2016. Then there are $10-million club options for the next two years, with $1-million buyouts. That’s not the end of it, though — there’s a $14-million vesting option for 2017, if Iwakuma throws 162 innings this coming year. And there’s a $15-million vesting option for 2018, if Iwakuma throws 162 innings the next year, or 324 innings combined. Throw in some smaller incentives and Iwakuma’s maximum contract is right there with the Dodgers total. It’s just that the guarantee is $12 million. Pretty obviously, Iwakuma lost a lot of leverage.

Still, if he believes in his health, he’ll get his money. Iwakuma says he’s good to go, and so do the Mariners. It’s worth thinking about a few things. The Dodgers gave 3/$45m, and then wanted to re-negotiate after the physical. The Mariners gave Iwakuma an end-of-season physical, and they offered him 2/$30m. They initially lost out to the Dodgers because they weren’t comfortable with the guaranteed third year. What that suggests is that anything in the tests is more of a longer-term concern, and now the Mariners have some protection.

Not that we know how this is going to go. Maybe Iwakuma breaks down immediately. Or maybe this turns out like when Aaron Sele failed a physical with the Orioles. That scrapped a four-year commitment. Sele signed a two-year commitment with Seattle and pitched effectively. He eventually had shoulder surgery three years out (from which he returned). Iwakuma will be 37 in 2018 so he’d be a risk no matter what. The value here will be at the front.

Over three years, Iwakuma has Stephen Strasburg‘s ERA-, Scott Kazmir‘s FIP-, and Madison Bumgarner’s xFIP-. He projects now as a No. 2 or No. 3, and he sets up a battle between Nate Karns and James Paxton for the last rotation slot. That depth is likely to be needed, although now there’s some chance the Mariners re-visit trade talks, dangling a pitcher they didn’t think they could move. The likelihood is someone just starts in Tacoma. Some kind of injury somewhere is to be expected.

The Mariners didn’t expect to get a few wins better like this, but Iwakuma fell back in their lap, and they couldn’t pass up the opportunity. It’ll help them be competitive with what’s become a deep rotation. On the Dodgers’ end, they walked back from the three-year commitment because they were no longer comfortable with it. It’s mostly bad luck, but now this just increases the urgency they would’ve been already feeling to make the rotation better. They can’t know what to expect from Hyun-Jin Ryu. They can’t know when to expect Brandon McCarthy. There will always be questions about Brett Anderson and Alex Wood, so it’s a guarantee the Dodgers add one starter, and there’s a big chance they add two. This isn’t a catastrophe for them — they didn’t want to give all that money to someone they think is an injury risk. Nothing wrong with that. But to this point it’s been an offseason of missed opportunities. The good news is I think the Dodgers almost prefer to be creative.

Ben and Sam banter about a fictitious player from TV, then answer listener emails about Mike Trout, opt-ops, paying players not to play, persuading a parent to value Barry Bonds, and more.

At the winter meetings, I asked a small collection of managers about the evolution of the role, and all of them — save perhaps Mike Scioscia — spoke to the importance of communicating with the media and with their players.

But that story had a longer scope, and a more universal one. I also asked them about a smaller more immediate thing — I asked many of them what they had learned this year, on the job. And for those just coming to the job, what they have tried to learn before they first manage a game.

Of particular note was what former position players did to learn about pitching, and vice versa. Managers have to communicate with all sorts of different players, and yet they came from one tradition within the game. And each has spent time developing themselves in their present role.

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It’s easy to say now that the Reds should have traded some players sooner. It’s been clear for a long time they’re headed for a rebuild, yet they hung on to Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier, and both of them lost value. Chapman is currently unmovable, and Frazier just drew an underwhelming return. Of course, the Reds couldn’t have predicted precisely what would happen, but they should have predicted neither Chapman nor Frazier would lift his stock higher than it was.

It’s also easy to say now that the Brewers should have traded Jonathan Lucroy sooner. This was a bit less obvious: In 2014, the Brewers went into September tied for the division lead. You can’t blame them for trying again in 2015, and a couple years back, Lucroy might’ve been the best catcher in baseball. He doesn’t look like the best catcher in baseball anymore. And the Brewers and Reds are basically in the same position.

The Reds traded Frazier because they’re far off, and Frazier’s almost 30, with two more years of team control. He’s more valuable to somebody else. Now the Brewers are thinking about trading Lucroy, because they’re far off, and Lucroy’s almost 30, with two more years of team control. He’d also be more valuable to somebody else. Unfortunately, this gets awfully complicated. Because of Lucroy’s position, health and performance, his value is down, but volatile. Yet the Brewers might be feeling a sense of urgency.

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Despite losing out on Zack Greinke, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to have one of the best teams in major league baseball. While Jeff Sullivan made a reasonable case recently for the Chicago Cubs as the best team in baseball currently, the Dodgers are right there with them, even without the benefit of a major move. But now that the Hisashi Iwakuma deal has fallen apart and led Iwakuma to reunite with the Seattle Mariners, the Dodgers need pitching. They were rumored to be involved with the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller and rumors still surround the pursuit of Jose Fernandez and pitchers in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. It’s possible, however, that it’s Matt Harvey who could best solve the Dodgers’ problems.

Despite likely losing Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy to free agency, the New York Mets also have a very good team returning next year. By our Depth Charts projections, the Mets have the fifth-best team in baseball, less than a win behind division-rival Washington Nationals. The club has a really good shot at repeating as division winners, with a rotation of Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Noah Syndergaard leading the way, and a returning Zack Wheeler and Bartolo Colon as insurance. The team has a solid infield, shrewdly picking up Neil Walker, and they should be able to cobble something semi-productive out of Asdrubal Cabrera and their returning middle infielders at shortstop. The team does have a bit of a hole in center field, and the offense, without Cespedes or Cespedes, doesn’t look all that great. The Mets might still have some financial concerns going into next season. It’s possible, though, that the young and cheap and talented Joc Pederson could solve the Mets’ problems.

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