Ben Lindbergh talks to Portia, proprietor of super-popular Shohei Ohtani fan account @shoheisaveus, about her Ohtani superfan origin story, life as a self-described “Shobae,” Ohtani’s popularity compared to other athletes and celebrities, following Ohtani from 15 time zones away, stanning a private person, the many mysteries of Ohtani, where the Shobaes would prefer for Ohtani to sign, and more. Then (1:09:03) Ben brings on baseball researcher and writer Sam Gazdziak of RIP Baseball to discuss monitoring baseball players’ passings, writing an obituary for every big leaguer, and finding and restoring baseball figures’ neglected gravesites.

Audio intro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Rose tweets
Link to Portia’s Twitter account
Link to info on Ohtani Insta followers
Link to Ben’s article on Portia
Link to Ohtani’s first MLB hit
Link to Smith on Ohtani
Link to “Fletchtani” tweet
Link to Ohtani-Sandoval video
Link to Equinox photo
Link to Ohtani’s beach trip
Link to Ohtani’s Hawaii trip
Link to Ohtani/Ippei Hawaii photo
Link to 2018 NHK doc
Link to 2021 NHK doc
Link to 2021 NHK doc (alt link)
Link to Ohtani’s dog
Link to Ohtani’s high school friends
Link to shirtless Shohei tweet
Link to recommended Twitter follow
Link to recommended Twitter follow 2
Link to recommended YouTube follow
Link to recommended YouTube follow 2
Link to recommended TikTok follow
Link to Ohtani’s “Despacito” video
Link to RIP Baseball
Link to Stenhouse obit
Link to Aaron obit
Link to Woods obit
Link to SABR Baseball Graves Map
Link to Baseball Player Passings group
Link to 19th Century Grave Marker Project
Link to Negro Leagues Grave Marker Project
Link to Green-Wood Cemetery article
Link to Cobb memorial
Link to Banks memorial
Link to “rigor mortis” quote
Link to John Glenn SABR bio
Link to Ed Williamson grave marker project
Link to B-Ref place of death index
Link to support Portia
Link to support Sam
Link to Secret Santa sign-up sheet

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the proper pluralization of “POBO,” then (7:12) answer listener emails about baseball with a five-second pitch clock, how long fans will continue to boo pickoff attempts, what it would take for a team to pay a particular fan to attend (or not attend) its games, Freddie Freeman’s base stealing, bringing turnovers to baseball, clubs that could achieve “perfectly average success” in the 30-team era, the limits of fan tolerance for playoff expansion, a proposal for the postseason to be like college bowl season, boosting starting pitchers with a “bullpen bank,” whether Harold Baines would’ve been better off declining Cooperstown induction, Adam Wainwright and the Hall of Fame, and fan voting on Hall of Famers, plus a Stat Blast (1:30:13) about whether awards voting has gotten more homogen(e)ous and more closely correlated with WAR.

Audio intro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to POBO pluralization exchange
Link to info on forming plurals
Link to pitch tempo leaderboard
Link to speed chess wiki
Link to Episode 1453
Link to Tango on pickoff attempts
Link to Bruce Chen’s pickoff attempts
Link to Gonny Jomes wiki
Link to MLB Ballpark Pass-Port
Link to MLB Ballpark app
Link to Stathead on 1B SB
Link to FG post on Freeman’s steals
Link to L.A. Times on Freeman’s 20–20
Link to graphic on Freeman’s 20–20–200
Link to Sam on Freeman’s improvements
Link to NYT on O’Neill’s 20–20
Link to Stathead on oldest 20–20 guys
Link to Pujols steal streak video
Link to H-E-B wiki
Link to baseball exceptionalism wiki
Link to EW on batters catching pitches
Link to The Athletic fan survey results
Link to NHL playoff format wiki
Link to playoff randomness by sport
Link to “paper champions” study
Link to Ben on the SP protagonist
Link to Ben on pitcher limits
Link to @dril “turning a big dial” tweet
Link to latest Hall of Fame ballot
Link to HoF tiers EW discussion
Link to article on Baines induction
Link to Ben on Baines
Link to Jay Jaffe on Wainwright’s 200th
Link to Jay on HoF SP standards
Link to EW episode 114
Link to HoF by election method
Link to Ben on Mauer’s candidacy
Link to EW emails database
Link to homogenous vs. homogeneous
Link to Kenny Jackelen on Twitter
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to B-Ref awards voting results
Link to awards data, all years, with WAR
Link to awards data with calculations
Link to Ryan’s Stat Blast graphs
Link to concentration ratio explainer
Link to HHI explainer
Link to SABR study on WAR and awards
Link to win probability of scoring team
Link to Secret Santa sign-up sheet

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

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José Ramírez is the definition of a set-it-and-forget-it player, and I mean that at least a little bit literally. Neither we nor our friends over at Baseball Prospectus published a single article that focused on him during a 2023 season when, for the fourth time in a row, he finished in the top 10 in the AL MVP voting. He turned out to have a very interesting season, and not just because he was, as always, excellent.

In June of 2022, Ramírez injured the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb. To the surprise of the Cleveland coaching staff, he decided to play through significant pain and postpone surgery until the offseason. Despite seeing his power drop off dramatically, he ended the season with a 141 wRC+ and 6.4 WAR. He finally had the surgery in November and came into the 2023 season healthy, but he got off to a slow start and finished with a 123 wRC+. It was his worst showing since 2019, when a broken hamate bone ended his season prematurely. (As an aside, if you’re desperate for for reassurance that Mike Trout will bounce back from his hamate injury, look no further than Ramírez, who immediately returned to superstardom in 2020.) Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

None of the projections here will blow your socks off, but on the plus side, very few of them will get your socks wet (and then you’re walking around all day with your feet wet and clammy, and every time you step it makes a little squishing sound, and you think there’s a bit of dirt in there and you’d like to take off your shoes, but that’s why you’re not allowed in Kroger anymore, so you can’t). If social media is any indication, Matt Chapman might be underrated at this point. He was terrible in the second half, but I haven’t found that to be very predictive, and overall, he still gave the Blue Jays about four wins that they now have to replace. Right now, third base, along with left field and designated hitter, looks to be an amalgamation of role players, though I don’t expect that situation to persist through Opening Day, if for no other reason than active rosters aren’t large enough for Toronto to start the season with all three of those unwieldy chimeras. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals’ 2023 season was disappointing, but it was anything but boring. The electric Jordan Walker cracked the Opening Day roster, tying a record for most games (12) with a hit to start a career for a player age 20 or younger. Then he went on to post what I can only assume (given the dearth of fielding statistics before 2000) is one of the worst defensive seasons by a rookie ever, costing St. Louis 16 runs per Defensive Runs Saved and 12 runs per Ultimate Zone Rating and Runs Above Average. Additionally, the Cardinals brought over veteran signal-caller Willson Contreras from the division-rival Cubs for $87.5 million, only to relegate him to DH and corner outfielder in May, then to just DH, before moving him back to catcher… all within the span of a week. And don’t even ask me, or Jack Flaherty for that matter, about the right-hander’s fastball velocity.

But Kyle Gibson is boring. Last year, the Cardinals were in the bottom 10 in baseball in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, and at the General Managers Meetings a couple of weeks ago, Cardinals’ President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak made clear the team’s desire to upgrade their pitching staff this offseason. But the Cards whiffed on Aaron Nola despite their early interest in the ace, and instead went with… Lance Lynn and Gibson? Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been almost two years since I authored a visual primer on vertical approach angle (VAA) and almost three years since I first discussed VAA here at FanGraphs. The topic directly adjacent to VAA — horizontal approach angle (HAA) — has been marinating in my mind (and in my drafts) ever since.

In an auspicious turn of fate, while revisiting this draft, our beloved Eno Sarris reached out to ask if I had ever published anything about HAA. He had questions about Brandon Pfaadt — specifically, Pfaadt’s sweeper. Much was made about Pfaadt’s success this postseason, which can be attributed, in no small part, to his sweeper and how he weaponized it. (More on that later.) I was spurred into action. Thanks, Eno! Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Phillies re-signing Aaron Nola, the Braves signing Reynaldo López, trading for Aaron Bummer, and rearranging their roster, the Cardinals signing Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, the Padres hiring Mike Shildt, Shohei Ohtani swearing teams to secrecy about his free-agent visits, and NHK’s Ohtani documentaries. Then (53:16) they talk to Vanessa Ivy Rose, host of six-part podcast Reclaimed: The Forgotten League and author of Hall of Fame DNA: The Legacy of Norman “Turkey” Stearnes, about the underappreciated greatness of her grandfather, Turkey Stearnes, telling the story of the Negro Leagues, and the past, present, and future of Black baseball.

Audio intro: Guy Russo, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to InstaGraphs post on Nola
Link to FG post on Nola
Link to FG post on López
Link to FG post on the Bummer trade
Link to FG post on the Wright trade
Link to team 40-man counts
Link to FG post on Lynn
Link to MLBTR on three Cards starters
Link to Mozeliak’s strikeouts quote
Link to defensive efficiency ranking
Link to MLBTR on Shildt’s firing
Link to MLBTR on Shildt’s hiring
Link to Passan’s Ohtani report
Link to Ohtani dog info
Link to dog breed details
Link to 2018 NHK doc
Link to 2021 NHK doc
Link to 2021 NHK doc (alt link)
Link to EW on youth baseball
Link to Teasley EW episode
Link to Nettie Stearnes clips
Link to The Forgotten League feed 1
Link to The Forgotten League feed 2
Link to Vanessa’s website
Link to Turkey history
Link to more Turkey history
Link to Vanessa on Turkey
Link to Turkey photo
Link to info on Turkey plaque
Link to FG Negro Leagues leaderboard
Link to Hall of Stats ranking
Link to B-Ref Negro Leagues stats
Link to Turkey at Seamheads
Link to Turkey at the NLBM
Link to HR/3B leaders
Link to The Athletic on stat integration
Link to MLB.com on stat integration
Link to MLB The Show mode
Link to Secret Santa sign-up sheet

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

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Last week I covered the American League half of the flurry of transactional activity that occurred as a result of the 40-man roster and non-tender deadlines. Is any one move here as impactful as signing a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a Matt Chapman? No, but when your favorite team experiences a rash of injuries in June, whether or not they have the depth to scrap and compete is often dictated by the people and processes that surround this day. Below are my thoughts on the National League, with some quick scouting snippets on most of the added players and thoughts about roster construction where I had something to say.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks lone addition was lefty Blake Walston, a former $2.5 million high school signee who, despite being young for his class and physically projectable as an amateur, has seen his fastball velocity plateau and slightly decline since he signed. He’s had fits and starts where he’s thrown harder, but for the most part, Walston’s fastball still sits 89-92 mph and his performance peripherals took a nosedive in 2023, though part of that was likely because of the PCL hitting environment. The lanky 22-year-old is still a fair long-term prospect because of his age and what one could reasonably hope will still be late-arriving physicality, but for now, I’d consider him at the very back of Arizona’s 40-man starting pitching depth chart. Read the rest of this entry »

All things considered, James Paxton had a productive season. In 19 starts comprising 96 innings, the recently turned–35-year-old left-hander fanned 101 batters, allowed 93 hits and logged a 4.50 ERA and a 4.68 FIP. The erstwhile Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees rotation mainstay put up those numbers with the Boston Red Sox between May 12 and September 1, and he did so after throwing just 1.1 innings over the past two-plus seasons. “Big Maple” underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021, and he remained on the shelf the following year due to a lat tear incurred late in the rehab process. Factor in the truncated 2020 COVID campaign, and he’d tossed just 22.1 frames since September 2019.

Paxton, now a free agent, has been a quality pitcher when healthy. From 2017 to ’19, the hard-throwing Ladner, British Columbia native went 38–17 with a 3.54 ERA, a 3.26 FIP, and a 30.0% strikeout rate. His heater averaged 95.6 mph over that three-year span, just a few ticks over this year’s 95.3. As for next season, he expects not only to be throwing every bit as hard, but also to be close to his old self in terms of overall arsenal quality. He addressed that subject, as well as his experience returning to the mound in 2023, when I spoke to him at the end of September.

———

David Laurila: You came back from Tommy John surgery. What has that experience been like in terms of your pitch quality?

James Paxton: “It’s definitely interesting coming back from it, the stuff differences [and] trying to figure out my arm again. I feel like the fastball came back, it felt really good, but the breaking stuff took some time. The cutter wasn’t the same pitch it was before Tommy John. I’m still kind of figuring that pitch out. I got to a place where it was good enough. I could use it, it just wasn’t the same as it was.”

Laurila: How has it been different?

Paxton: “I used to throw it harder. It was a shorter, harder slider, basically, and now it’s not quite as hard. I used to throw it 88–91 [mph] and now it’s like 85–87. It still has decent movement to it, but again, it’s just not quite the same pitch that it was before I got hurt. Maybe that’s something that will come back in year two. People say that your stuff isn’t really 100% back until the year after your first year back from Tommy John.” Read the rest of this entry »