FanGraphs Baseball

Last week at Grantland, two friends of the show in Jonah Keri and Nick Piecoro had a wonderful discussion about all things Arizona Diamondbacks, including the Touki Toussaint trade that caused many a skeptical eyebrow to be raised in the Diamondbacks’ direction. While Keri and Piecoro by no means endorsed the Diamondbacks’ recent moves, they brought up an interesting perspective on Arizona’s willingness to spend big on Cuban players Yasmany Tomas and Yoan Lopez — and thus easily eclipsing their allotted international bonuses — without spending much on international free agents from other countries. The idea: there’s a relatively slim chance that Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart — or any other general manager for any other team — would still be working in their current position when today’s 16-year-old reaches the majors. While the fan no doubt cringes at the thought of a general manager romping around the front office with nary a concern for the franchise’s sustained success, one can definitely empathize with the human instinct for self-preservation.

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Position: Atlanta Braves Baseball Operations Analyst

Location: Atlanta

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Kershaw (131.0 IP, 52 xFIP-) vs. Colon (109.1 IP, 99 xFIP-)
One overlooked advantage to having invented a hastily constructed algorithm for estimating the likely aesthetic appeal of baseball games is that one is able to alter said algorithm at his or her own pleasure. Partly in response to comments such as the ones made energetically by concerned reader NotGettingIt yesterday and partly in response to the author’s own fallible intuition, what I’ve done today is to change which sort of playoff odds are utilized in the team NERD scores. Until now, I’ve used the divisional-series odds from the FanGraphs Projections Mode. Starting now, however, I’ll use the divisional-series odds from the Season-to-Date Stats Mode.

The former, because it accounts for the actual players on each respective roster, is probably the better tool for estimating each club’s actual chances of qualifying for the postseason. The advantage of the latter mode, however — for this endeavor, at least — is that it reflects how an actual human person experiences the playoff race. Consider: the Giants currently trail the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. Because the latter club features a stronger roster than the former, their Projections Mode divisional-series odds are much better: 91.1% for the Dodgers versus just 25.6% for the Giants. What a human observes, though, is mostly just that 2.5-game lead — and a 2.5-game lead, generically speaking, doesn’t translate to such robust odds as those possessed by the Dodgers. The Season-to-Date Mode depicts more closely that generic translation: it gives the Dodgers a 70.5% chance of qualifying for the divisional series; the Giants, a 46.8% chance. In the former case, the two teams are separated by roughly 65 percentage points; in the latter, roughly just 25 points. While, again, the Dodgers probably possess something closer to 90% odds of qualifying for the divisional series, that figure is based on certain (sound) assumptions about the quality of their roster — assumptions with which a person, actually experiencing the event, is likely less concerned.

Below are now the top-five clubs by NERD. Note: pDOFF represents divisional-series playoff odds as calculted by means of the projections; sDOFF denotes the same thing, except as calculated by season-to-date stats. Team NERD formerly included the former; now, the latter.

Given their greater proximity to the 50% DOFF mark by this new methodology, both the Dodgers and Giants’ NERD scores increase — which also has the effect of displacing the Astros to some degree, although Houston’s score remains high overall.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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Lance McCullers is starting for the Astros on Thursday, and while he’s going to have his innings closely monitored down the stretch, potentially reducing his availability, there’s no doubt he’s played a big role in getting the Astros to where they are at present. McCullers has followed an up-and-down 2014 with an incredibly successful 2015, and in just 11 big-league starts, he’s been worth about 2 WAR no matter which formula you prefer. The Astros are said to be in the market for a starting pitcher, but if it weren’t for McCullers’ presence, the situation would be a lot more desperate.

McCullers throws three pitches, though the changeup is simply coming along. He has a good fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but the best pitch here is the curve, thrown a third of the time and responsible for the majority of McCullers’ strikeouts. It’s never been a secret that McCullers throws a good breaking ball, but in talking with David Laurila, Brent Strom tossed out a heavy comp:

“I’d say McCullers’ breaking ball is Kimbrel-like at times,” said Strom. “That’s as good as you can get. I haven’t seen everybody’s curveball, but I would say the young kid McCullers has a curveball as good as anybody in this game.”

That’s a direct comparison between Lance McCullers’ breaking ball and Craig Kimbrel’s breaking ball. That’s coming from a big-league pitching coach, so it carries some weight. But why not put numbers to this, to try to find the best comp, really?

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As I write this, the Mets are a couple games back from a National League wild-card slot. They’re also just a couple games out of first place in the NL East, and they’re beating the Nationals in the eighth inning. As I wrote that, the lead was blown, and now things are all tied up, but the bigger point is that things are close. Regardless of how the game ends today, the Mets have a good shot at going to the playoffs. It’s true that the Nationals have been hurt by injuries. But the Mets, too, have had to deal with a lot of problems, so it’s not like they’re just benefiting from Washington’s misfortune. It’s a winnable division, and oh, by the way, here’s a screenshot of Bryce Harper, and a screenshot of his subsequent swing:

So there’s a sense of urgency. I see now the Mets are losing to the Nationals, 4-3. That’s bad. Anyway, there’s a sense of urgency, as people want the Mets to upgrade so that they don’t waste the pitching they’re getting. Due in part to all those injuries, the lineup has struggled. The Mets could use a bat, and in left field, they’ve got an aching Michael Cuddyer and a handful of backups. There are some rumors connecting the Mets to second-tier outfielders on the market, like Gerardo Parra and Will Venable. Yet there’s also some momentum to stay internal. The Mets, it seems, are now thinking more about promoting top prospect Michael Conforto. It could even happen within the next 24 hours. The hope is that Conforto might provide the jolt the offense so desperately needs. It would save the front office from having to make a trade.

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It’s no secret that the St. Louis Cardinals have a pretty good team this year. Their 59-34 record is easily the best in baseball, as are their 98.8% playoff odds. Yet, for all that’s right with the Cardinals, there’s been one gaping hole in their lineup of late: first base.

Since Matt Adams‘ season came to an end when he tore his quad in late May, the Cardinals have had a tough time filling the he left void at first base. Most of the plate appearances have fallen to Mark Reynolds, who’s managed just an unspectacular 95 wRC+ from the position. Xavier Scruggs and Dan Johnson have also kicked in a combined 46 plate appearances of sub-80 wRC+ work.

To help sure up their first-base situation, the Cards called up prospect Stephen Piscotty, who was hitting a strong .272/.366/.475 in Triple-A Memphis. Although the Cardinals have mostly deployed him as an outfielder in the minors, the plan appears to be for him to slot in at first base for the time being. Unlike many of the guys who have gotten the call over the past couple of months, Piscotty’s not a consensus top-tier prospect. Although he did manage to crack the top 50 in both Baseball Prospectus’ and John Sickels’ mid-season lists. Our very own Kiley McDaniel had him 81st in the preseason.

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At some point in the next 10 days, The Cincinnati Reds are going to trade Johnny Cueto, and some contender is going to get perhaps the best pitcher available for the stretch run. Nearly every team that’s in need of a starting pitcher has been linked to Cueto at some point, and the Reds won’t have any shortage of suitors vying for his services. But where does he fit best, and who should bid the most to secure him as their ace for the rest of the season?

First off, let’s just acknowledge that basically every contender in baseball could use Johnny Cueto; no one has four starters at his level, so he’d slide right into the front of every team’s playoff rotation, and would start the first game of a playoff series for most of them. But for some teams, he’d represent a larger upgrade than some others, and there are some teams that could use pitching that may very well be better off going in another direction than paying the price for Cueto.

At the top of that list, I’d probably put the Los Angeles Dodgers. They clearly need a starting pitcher or three, especially with Brett Anderson leaving his start early on Tuesday night, and really, his history of health problems made it unlikely that the team should count on him giving them significant innings in October even before that. Given their resources and their position at the top of the NL West, it seems very likely that the Dodgers will make a move to upgrade their rotation, but I don’t know that Cueto is the best option for them.

Part of the appeal of landing a guy at Cueto’s level is that you’re adding a guy who can match up with other team’s aces; you pay a premium to get Cueto because he’s going to have a larger impact in the postseason than he will in the regular season. Except the Dodgers already have the best pitcher in baseball and the guy pitching like the best pitcher in baseball right now; on the Dodgers, Cueto might actually be the #3 starter behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

There’s nothing wrong with having a great #3 starter, but that means in the first round, Cueto would only make one start. Paying the price to obtain an ace with the potential to only use him for one game in the first round probably isn’t worth it, and the Dodgers may very well be better off getting two lesser starters to fill the last two spots in their playoff rotation rather than going for one more elite starter to team with the two they already have.

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Between the All-Star break and the trade deadline, most starting pitchers make only a couple starts. For starting pitchers who could be on the move, the small timeframe places those starts under a microscope for those anticipating a trade. Teams wanting to trade for the starter want to ensure that they are getting a pitcher at the peak of his abilities to help with the last few months of the regular season and potentially the playoffs. For the best two starting pitchers on the market, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, recent performance has begun to raise questions about their trade value. Whether recent performances have hurt their trade value is debatable, but we can look over the past few seasons and determine whether other pitchers have gone through a dip in performance prior to a trade and compare that performance after the trade.

Some have asserted that Hamels’ last two starts hurt his trade value. While he has given up 14 runs in less than seven combined innings in his last two starts, his underlying stuff (which is great) has not been affected, there was an extended layoff between the two starts due to the All-Star break, and in the outing prior to those starts, Hamels threw seven shutout innings with six strikeouts against no walks. Hamels does have a 3.91 ERA this season, but his 3.37 FIP is still in line with his stellar career numbers.

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The trading deadline is nearly upon us, and if history is a guide, there could be a dizzying amount of player movement in the coming days. This season appears to be unique in a couple of ways. There seems to be a somewhat historic mismatching of pure buyers and sellers, in large part due to the insanity of the American League wild-card race, with no team further than eight games under .500 or out of the wild-card lead. Purely by definition, is there a sure seller in the bunch?

This week, we’ll preview the deadline in a somewhat unique manner. Instead of focusing solely on club’s holes and potential targets, we’ll hone in on them from their respective talent arsenals to be drawn upon to make deadline deals. Which clubs are best — and worst — positioned to land the most attractive prizes on the market?

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