If You Meet Bryce Harper On the Road, Do Not Hang a Breaking Ball

Bryce Harper
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

PHILADELPHIA — When Bryce Harper sees a breaking ball middle-middle or middle-in, the most common outcome is not what you might think: He fouls it off. Over the course of the regular season, he saw 61 such pitches and hit 25 of them foul. Six others he took for strikes, nine more he swung at and missed, 11 others were hit in play for outs. Only two of those 61 balls went into the seats.

That still makes him one of baseball’s most dangerous hitters on such pitches. On breaking balls middle-middle and middle-in, he slugged an even 1.000 with an ISO of .524. This season, 161 hitters saw 750 or more pitches from the left side; Harper was 12th in wOBA, fifth in xwOBA, 16th in ISO, and tied for 11th in slugging percentage.

You don’t want to pitch him there. Because what if he doesn’t foul it off?

In the Phillies’ 10–2 win over the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS, Harper saw 19 total pitches, 16 breaking balls. Three floated into the middle-middle or middle-in region. Sure enough, Harper fouled one of them off. The other two decided the game. Read the rest of this entry »


Freddie Freeman Lost His Poor Meatball

Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

I got a little anxious last night. It was nothing major. I was sad that the Orioles were being eliminated from the playoffs. I was also sad about the way it was going down, which called to mind a cartoon character being tossed face-first through a saloon door while the bartender shouts, “And stay out!” I was a little drained from making conversation at a long group dinner. And I knew this article could really use another draft, which meant getting up early before a doctor’s appointment that I was already a little nervous about. All minor things, but the result was that when I answered a question from my wife, something in my voice made her stop and ask if I was okay.

Everyone deserves to feel seen. I’ve spent a lot of my life feeling lonely, and I am well aware that it’s privilege to have someone who cares enough about you to know whether you’re telling the truth when you say, “I’m fine.” But also, sometimes you really are close enough to being fine that you’d rather have your slightly sour mood slip by unnoticed. Humans are very picky creatures.

I imagine baseball players must feel that way a lot of the time. It’s nice to be recognized for your accomplishments, but it’s got to feel weird that anybody on earth can look up your batting average, and that a whole lot of your neighbors already know it without needing to look it up. Think about how often you see a player who has no idea that they’ve achieved some amazing statistical accomplishment until an interviewer asks them about it. On Saturday, Carlos Correa was too busy actually playing in the playoffs to know that he’d passed David Ortiz and Derek Jeter on the all-time playoff RBI list. Read the rest of this entry »


Phillies? Postseason? Run!

Trea Turner
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Amidst all the headlines last fall about the Phillies’ postseason run, perhaps the repetition of the phrase had a subconscious influence on the team. Phillies? Postseason? Run! That might explain why they’ve been taking those words so literally this October.

In four postseason games, the Phillies have stolen nine bases on ten attempts. They’ve advanced on five wild pitches, one failed pickoff, and a lofty throw that wound up in center field. Bryce Harper legged out an infield single; Nick Castellanos stretched a bloop hit into a double. Trea Turner hasn’t stopped moving in over a week. Most recently and most dramatically, Harper ran his way into a game-ending fly-out/throw-out double play at first base, in an aggressive bit of baserunning that wasn’t nearly as foolish as the Gameday description would have you believe. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cincinnati Reds – Multiple Trainee Openings

Baseball Analytics Trainee

Department: Baseball Analytics
Reports To: Baseball Analytics Leadership
Job Purpose: Assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis of various sources of baseball information. The specific day-to-day responsibilities of this position will vary depending on current needs from our stakeholders along with the baseball calendar but will revolve around analyzing various sources of baseball data.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities:

  • Learn and communicate analytical products across departments.
  • Build upon analytic initiatives by creating new statistical models, applications, and reports.
  • Introductory level player evaluation, including scouting and writing reports on assignment.
  • Iterate on existing products and processes already established by the Baseball Analytics Department.
  • Present analysis and research results to stakeholders with various levels of analytic knowledge.
  • Conduct ad-hoc research projects when requested.

Knowledge, Skills and Abilities:

  • Bachelor’s degree or pursuit of degree or equivalent experience in a quantitative field that emphasizes technical and analytical problem-solving skills such as statistics, mathematics, engineering, and/or economics preferred.
  • Understanding of advanced statistical techniques is strongly preferred.
  • Demonstrated experience and proficiency with Database querying (e.g., SQL) and statistical software (e.g., R, Python) is strongly preferred.
  • Ability to learn other programming languages as needed.
  • Requirements:
  • Spoken and written fluency in English.
  • Willing to relocate to Cincinnati Ohio.

Experience, Education and Licensure:

  • Adhere to Cincinnati Reds Organization Policies and Procedures.
  • Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds Organization.
  • Perform duties as workload necessitates.
  • Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload.
  • Meet department productivity standards.
  • Willingness to learn. Open to new methodologies.

Expectations:

  • Adhere to Cincinnati Reds Organization Policies and Procedures.
  • Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds Organization.
  • Perform duties as workload necessitates.
  • Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload.
  • Meet department productivity standards.
  • Willingness to learn. Open to new methodologies.

Technical Questionnaire:
The Baseball Analytics Department of the Cincinnati Reds is requiring all applicants to complete a technical questionnaire hosted on Coderbyte to be considered for this role. The technical assessment has a time limit of 2 hours. Many prior applicants complete the assessment in 1 hour.
The URL to complete the required technical assessment is listed below (Please copy/paste into a new tab):
https://coderbyte.com/sl-candidate?promo=cincinnatireds-sqyjd:sql-assessment–4p1fe5jdfc

Equal Opportunity Statement:
The Cincinnati Reds are an Equal Opportunity Employer. It is the policy of the Cincinnati Reds to ensure equal employment opportunity without discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion or creed, sex, age, military or veteran status, disability, citizenship status, marital status, genetic predisposition or carrier status, sexual orientation or any other characteristic protected by law.

Disclaimer:
The statements herein are intended to describe the general nature and level of work being performed by the employee in this position. The above description is only a summary of the typical functions of the job, not an exhaustive or comprehensive list of all possible job responsibilities, tasks, and duties. Additional duties, as assigned, may become part of the job function. The duties listed above is, therefore, a partial representation not intended to be an exhaustive list of all responsibilities, duties, and skills required of a person in this position.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Baseball Operations Trainee

Department: Baseball Operations
Reports To: Director, Baseball Operations
Job Purpose: Provide support to all members of the Baseball Operations Department in a wide range of both administrative and baseball-related tasks and projects.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities:

  • Perform qualitative and quantitative research and analysis in support of salary arbitration, roster management, player evaluation, player development, amateur draft, and trade deadline efforts.
  • Introductory level player evaluation, including scouting and writing reports on assignment.
  • Assist in preparation of advance scouting documents and video for players and coaches during season.

Knowledge, Skills and Abilities:

  • Independent judgment and ability to multitask is required to plan, prioritize, and organize diversified workload.
  • Strong work ethic and willingness to work long, flexible hours including weekends and holidays.
  • High level of attention to detail.
  • Must be trustworthy and comfortable with managing sensitive information.
  • High level of interpersonal skills and be able to effectively communicate with wide range of departments, seniority levels and personalities.
  • Understanding of typical baseball data structures, plus knowledge of current baseball research and traditional baseball statistics and strategy.

Experience, Education and Licensure:

  • Bachelor’s degree or pursuit of degree or equivalent experience in a quantitative field, such as statistics, mathematics, engineering, and/or economics preferred.
  • Experience playing/working in college and/or professional baseball/softball preferred.
  • Demonstrated experience and proficiency with:
  • Database querying (e.g., SQL) and statistical software (e.g., R, Python) preferred.
  • BATS video system preferred.
  • Microsoft Office Suite (e.g., Microsoft Word, Excel, and PowerPoint) required.
  • Requirements:
  • Spoken and written fluency in English.
  • Ability to travel within the United States and internationally.
  • Willing to relocate.

Expectations:

  • Adhere to Cincinnati Reds Organization Policies and Procedures.
  • Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds Organization.
  • Perform duties as workload necessitates.
  • Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload.
  • Meet department productivity standards.
  • Willingness to learn. Open to new methodologies.

Equal Opportunity Statement:
The Cincinnati Reds are an Equal Opportunity Employer. It is the policy of the Cincinnati Reds to ensure equal employment opportunity without discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion or creed, sex, age, military or veteran status, disability, citizenship status, marital status, genetic predisposition or carrier status, sexual orientation or any other characteristic protected by law.

Disclaimer:
The statements herein are intended to describe the general nature and level of work being performed by the employee in this position. The above description is only a summary of the typical functions of the job, not an exhaustive or comprehensive list of all possible job responsibilities, tasks, and duties. Additional duties, as assigned, may become part of the job function. The duties listed above is, therefore, a partial representation not intended to be an exhaustive list of all responsibilities, duties, and skills required of a person in this position.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cincinnati Reds.


Effectively Wild Episode 2070: Playoff Hand-Wringing Returns

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley discuss some renewed fretting about playoff formats, long layoffs, and upsets, recap (31:44) Clayton Kershaw’s playoff career and consider how (if at all) it will affect his legacy, and then examine (55:25) the latest action in each Division Series, plus follow-ups (1:29:49) on multiple topics from the preceding episode (including postseason sweeps and conductors).

Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)

Link to Rosenthal on the playoff format
Link to Ben Clemens on long layoffs
Link to Joe Sheehan on long layoffs
Link to Ben L. on playoff randomness
Link to FG postseason leaderboards
Link to playoff pitching decliners sheet
Link to Ben L. on the Dodgers
Link to MLB.com on Harris and Harper
Link to Sam on the Correa play
Link to Ben C. on the Wheeler decision
Link to Russell on removing the starter
Link to study on reliever familiarity
Link to Neil Paine on Yordan
Link to Langs Orioles tweet
Link to Paine on the O’s
Link to EW Episode 2069
Link to holds leaders
Link to 2012 Clippard article
Link to 2015 Clippard article
Link to Senators FB thread
Link to EW Episode 1217

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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Rangers Sweep Orioles with 7-1 Game 3 Romp

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest at-bat of Tuesday’s Orioles-Rangers game didn’t happen. Corey Seager stepped to the plate in the bottom of the second inning with Texas ahead 1-0 and Dean Kremer already laboring. Seager was the last person the O’s wanted to see at the plate. That run already on the board? It came courtesy of a Seager solo shot in the first inning, and there were runners on second and third with two outs. Brandon Hyde decided discretion was the better part of valor and extended four fingers for an intentional walk – a plate appearance instead of an at-bat, you see. That’s the last time the Orioles were really in the game.

Mitch Garver, whose spot in the lineup Bruce Bochy jokingly attributed to a personal rule – “if you hit a grand slam, you’re in there the next day” – was due up next. He pulled a changeup down the left field line – I’m not a pitching coach, but uh, don’t throw a right-right changeup when it’s the fourth pitch in your arsenal – and drove two runs home. Adolis García came up next and got behind 1-2, but then he got a fastball he could handle and didn’t miss. He demolished it to left, the ball disappearing impossibly fast. It was 6-0 Rangers. Thanks for playing, Baltimore, and better luck next year. Read the rest of this entry »


Dominant Javier, Unstoppable Alvarez Push Twins to Brink of Elimination

Cristian Javier
Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

After splitting the first two games in Houston, the Astros and Twins faced off in Minneapolis. But after Pablo López shut down the Astros’ bats in Game 2, it was Cristian Javier mowing down a lineup this time around, leading his team to a 2–1 series lead with a 9–1 victory over Sonny Gray and Minnesota.

Javier dominated the Twins for five innings, surrendering just one hit and striking out nine. He was wild at times, walking five and hitting a batter and throwing quite a few waste pitches, especially fastballs. He also wasn’t able to get his slider down as much as he would’ve liked, though that didn’t seem to matter for Twins hitters, who came up empty on 13 of their 16 swings against it. Javier’s gameplan when he was on can best be seen in his three matchups against standout rookie Royce Lewis, whose streak of incredible hits with runners on base came to a screeching halt. Read the rest of this entry »


Zack Wheeler’s Misfortune

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

It won’t be remembered this way, but last night’s Braves/Phillies Game 2 clash provides an interesting bookend to the interminable Blake Snell discussion we’ve been having every October since the moment it happened in 2020. Let’s set the scene: Zack Wheeler looked absolutely dominant to start the night, bowling the Braves over to the tune of five no-hit innings, with an error the only blemish on his pitching line. He started to wobble in the sixth, with a walk and a single leading to an unearned run. The Phillies led 4-1, and Rob Thomson had the bullpen working overtime, but Wheeler struck out Austin Riley to end the threat and keep the bullpen at bay.

Clearly, the Phillies were considering going to a reliever, and you can understand why. They showed a ton of trust in their bullpen in the first game against Atlanta, and the ‘pen delivered: 5.1 scoreless innings fueled a 3-0 victory. After an off day, the gang was rested, and today is another off day, which meant there would be more time to recover, particularly considering there were only three innings to cover. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/10/23

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first solo October chat of this postseason. I hope you’re enjoying the playoffs so far or at the very least are faring better than the Dodgers.

I did a quick piece on last night’s Phillies-Braves game and its wild finish (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/late-homers-wild-final-play-help-braves-kn…), and before that a piece on Sandy Alcantara’s Tommy John surgery (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sandy-alcantaras-volume-and-velocity-lead-…). Anyway, on with the show…

2:03
Zips user: How did you feel about the playoff format?  Is 4-5 days off a disadvantage to bye teams?  Is a three game series really worth it?  Why not a one game play-in ?

2:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m on record as disliking this current format, both because of how diluted the field becomes when you start including the league’s sixth-best team, because the advantages of winning the division aren’t great enough (the third seed has to play), and because best-of-three is so random that it tells us almost nothing about who’s the better team.

I much preferred the 5-teams-per-league format because i thought the one-and-done Wild Card game was the appropriate penalty for qualifying without  winning the division, but it’s worth noting that for all of the handwringing that goes on every year, the off-time between the end of the regular season and the start of the Division Series there was the same as it is for the recipients of the bye under the current format.

2:08
Zips user: Jay,  what is your view of catching framing?  Should it be in WAR or not?  The umps don’t miss much any more and robots are coming within two years.  Does it make sense to have a 10-20 year period where framing is in WAR but not before or after ?

2:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I do believe framing should be part of WAR and wish we had it going much further back. I don’t think its value will go away entirely because it seems quite clear we’re not getting a full ABS (automatic ball and strike) system but more likely a challenge system, and even that has a ways to go before it’s ready for the majors. But even if that weren’t the case, we should be using the data we have for the period where it was relevant.

2:11
Fungible Pitching: Regarding modern SPs throwing fewer innings than in past eras, thus being less likely to accumulate HoF-caliber WAR/etc, does the bar really need to be lowered in order to induct a comparable amount of SPs as in the past? After all, SPs now are trained and paid to be interchangeable. They’re becoming role players, by design. No individual “Fame” there.

Read the rest of this entry »


Postseason Leaderboards Are Now Available!

Postseason stats are now available in our leaderboards!

The leaderboards can be accessed in the Leaders navigation bar, or by using the “Season Type” filter in the leaderboards themselves. Read the rest of this entry »