Over the past week, some of baseball’s top teams stumbled their way into the All-Star break while a chunk of fringe contenders ended the first half with encouraging results.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.

To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coinflip playoff odds. (Specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%.) As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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The Phillies began the final week of the first half on the highest of notes — they swept the Dodgers behind a pitching staff that held the mighty Los Angeles offense to just five runs across the three-game series. Unfortunately, Philadelphia followed up that triumph with a series loss to the lowly A’s that included an 18-3 blowout on Sunday. Zack Wheeler was scratched from his scheduled start with a minor back injury and Ranger Suárez is also dealing with back tightness. Their ailments will keep both starters from pitching in the All-Star Game, though they’re expected to recover in time to make their next scheduled starts. Regardless of how the week ended, the Phillies carry baseball’s best record into the break and are a cut above the rest of the contenders.

Entering the final weekend of the first half, the Orioles had a chance to pull further ahead of the sputtering Yankees in the AL East standings. Sure, Baltimore had just been swept by the Cubs, but it still held a two-game lead in the division ahead of its three-game series against New York at Camden Yards. Instead, the O’s barely avoided suffering another sweep, which would have dropped them to second place. Down to their final out after Craig Kimbrel had coughed up the lead in the top of the inning, the Orioles scored three unearned runs on a costly error, by Gold Glove shortstop Anthony Volpe, and a misplayed fly ball, by Alex Verdugo, to beat New York in walk-off fashion. It was a terrible loss for the Yankees during an especially brutal month of games; their 8-18 record since June 15 is the worst mark in the majors. And yet, for as awful as they’ve played, the Yankees finished the first half just a game behind the Orioles. The AL East race is going to be quite the treat down the stretch.

Baltimore wasn’t the only AL division leader to limp into the All-Star break. The Guardians lost both of their series last week and are now just 4.5 games ahead of the Twins in the AL Central.

In a pretty big battle for the final AL Wild Card spot last weekend, the Red Sox emerged triumphant in two of their three games against the Royals. Rafael Devers has been on fire this month, but he’s getting a lot of help from Jarren Duran and a surprising breakout from Connor Wong. Boston finished the first half as one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning 18 of its final 25 games entering the break. That 18-7 record since June 15 is the best in the majors across that span. That said, the Sox have a pretty formidable schedule ahead of them; they’ll open the second half with nine of their next 10 series against teams in the middle of the playoff hunt.

The Braves went 4-3 last week, winning a weekend series against the Padres to tighten their grip on the top NL Wild Card spot.

After being swept by the Phillies, the Dodgers traveled to Detroit and were walked off twice in their weekend series with the Tigers. On Saturday, the bullpen squandered a five-run lead in the ninth before losing the game in the 10th. Then on Sunday, a pair of errors by pitcher Yohan Ramírez on back-to-back sacrifice bunts allowed the winning run to score. That loss dropped Los Angeles to 5-10 over its last 15 games, the second-worst record in the National League since June 28. Yet, despite the recent woes, the Dodgers still hold a seven-game lead in the NL West.

The Astros, Brewers, and Twins all wobbled their way into the All-Star break; Houston lost a series to the Rangers, Milwaukee salvaged a single win against the Nationals on Sunday, and Minnesota got tripped up against the Giants.

The Mets won five in a row last week before that streak was snapped on Sunday. Still, those wins carried them into the final Wild Card spot, a game ahead of the Diamondbacks and Padres. Francisco Lindor is once again proving just how much he deserves to be an All-Star despite not being selected to the roster in any of his four seasons with the Mets. Since the beginning of June, Lindor has posted a 155 wRC+, and overall, he’s slashing .253/.329/.454; among NL shortstops, he is tied for first in home runs (17), fourth in wRC+ (125), and second in WAR (4.2). Brandon Nimmo has been even better during this prolonged stretch (172 wRC+), and he won’t be joining the festivities in Texas either.

With a pair of doubleheaders, the Cardinals wound up playing six games in five days last week. They lost both games Wednesday against the intrastate-rival Royals and split their four-game series with the suddenly hot Cubs over the weekend. Despite those lackluster results, St. Louis pulled within 4.5 games of the NL Central lead because of the Brewers’ recent struggles.

After showing some signs of life with 8-3 and 11-0 victories early last week, the Mariners fell back to their familiar, frustrating inconsistencies with three straight one-run losses against the Angels to close the first half. Less than a month ago, on June 18, Seattle held a 10-game lead in the AL West. Now, the M’s enter the break barely clinging to a one-game advantage over the second-place Astros.

The Royals may have lost their series to the Red Sox over the weekend, but they were one of the early movers in the trade market, acquiring Hunter Harvey from the Nationals on Saturday to bolster their bullpen. The relief corps has been a particularly glaring weak spot for Kansas City, but more importantly, the deal signals that the organization is looking to aggressively buy before the deadline in an attempt to take advantage of this surprisingly successful season.

The Diamondbacks had an encouraging finish to their mostly disappointing first half, splitting their series with the Braves early last week and then winning two of three against the Blue Jays over the weekend. With Friday night’s win, Arizona went above .500 for the first time since early April; at 49-48, the D-backs are tied with the Padres in the NL Wild Card standings, just a game behind the Mets for the final playoff berth. Meanwhile, San Diego won just once last week and lost its grip on a playoff spot in the process. The good news is that Xander Bogaerts was activated off the IL on Friday and hopefully can provide a boost to the Friars down the stretch.

The Pirates won a big series against the Brewers last week before sweeping the White Sox over the weekend. Those five wins pushed Pittsburgh’s record back to .500 for the first time since April, and the team sits just a game and a half back in the NL Wild Card race. Of course, the most exciting member of the Pirates is rookie right-hander Paul Skenes, who was selected to start for the NL in Tuesday’s All-Star Game. His sheer dominance just might keep the Pirates in the playoff picture for at least another few weeks and force the organization to make some difficult decisions about whether it wants to push for the postseason or stay the course and continue its rebuild for yet another year.

These six teams have been hanging around the margins of the playoff picture for most of the season, and all of them finished off the first half with some really encouraging results.

The Rays scrambled back to .500 with critical series wins against the Yankees and Guardians last week, though because Boston has been so hot recently, Tampa Bay and the rest of these AL fringe teams still have long odds to make a run at a Wild Card berth. For the Rangers, that possibly means selling off a few of their expendable players at the trade deadline. Texas managed to win its weekend series against the Astros, but the path to the playoffs for the defending champs is crowded and might be too tough to follow. The Tigers took three of four from the Guardians and two of three against the Dodgers last week, but Detroit faces an even longer and more difficult road than the other AL clubs in this tier.

For the Cubs, Giants, and Reds, there’s still plenty of hope that they can make a run over the next few months. Both Cincinnati and Chicago went 5-2 last week to pull within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot; the Reds are three games out, while the Cubs are 3.5 back. San Francisco didn’t have as good of a week as those other two teams, but Blake Snell turned in a brilliant start after being activated off the IL on Sunday. Still, of this trio of NL fringe contenders, the Giants have the best odds to make the playoffs.

The Blue Jays haven’t committed to selling or standing pat yet, but their series loss to the Diamondbacks over the weekend didn’t do much to encourage them to try and stick in the playoff race. The decision to trade away some of their best players could significantly alter the fortunes of their franchise, but it seems more likely that they’ll just retool a bit and try to come back competitive next year.

Despite flirting with the NL Wild Card race a month ago, the Nationals announced their intention to sell at the deadline when they traded reliever Hunter Harvey to the Royals on Saturday. That’s wise, because in a seller’s market, Washington has a handful of players who would be very enticing acquisitions for contending clubs. Yes, selling is a bummer, but considering the development of young talents such as James Wood and CJ Abrams, it might not be too long before the Nats are deadline buyers once again.

The A’s added another gigantic offensive outburst to their ledger this year with an 18-3 drubbing of the Phillies on Sunday. They scored 19 against the Orioles just a few weeks ago and 20 against the Marlins on May 4. Of course, that means they’ve scored just 3.5 runs per game in the other 95 they’ve played so far. Still, there are some positive signs from their offense, including Brent Rooker’s continued breakout and a red hot Lawrence Butler.

With his home run on Sunday, Brenton Doyle has already blasted eight dingers in July, and he’s looking more and more like a core player the Rockies can build around. His defensive prowess has already made him one of the more valuable center fielders in the game, but now he’s hitting and hitting for power, giving Colorado an all-around talent at a premium position. That should give Rockies fans some hope as they suffer through yet another disappointing season.

FanGraphs was at the Futures Game in Arlington on Saturday. In total, 16 pitchers appeared in the seven-inning game. The following are some quick notes on every pitcher who toed the rubber during All-Star weekend’s premier prospect event. Obviously one game isn’t enough on its own to move the needle significantly for any of these guys — they all have a large body of work that can better inform our evaluations — but it’s useful to see whose stuff ticks up when they’re in an environment like the Futures Game and get to let it eat in a shorter burst than they’re accustomed to. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted yesterday over on The Board. The positions below are what the player was announced as, not necessarily what I have them projected as on The Board. For pitchers, I have a role designated below: starter (SP), or single-inning or multi-inning reliever (SIRP and MIRP). Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
There has been a lot of buzz today about Wetherholt going here and, as I wrote in my first mock, he is the guy to cut an under-slot deal with if you’re going to do it with anyone because his other homes are later than the other candidates. I also have Wetherholt first on my board and would be fine just taking him here on talent. The rumors smell almost too strong today, as if they’re a last ditch effort to drive Bazzana’s price down before taking him. I’m staying disciplined and leaving Bazzana here, but it’s purely on intuition. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Diego Padres. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Rojas has turned himself into a plus defender. My colleague Ben Clemens chronicled that advancement last month, citing the Mariners infielder’s improved ability to go to his left as a primary reason for his markedly-better metrics. Exactly what type of adjustments have allowed the 30-year-old third baseman to turn the proverbial corner with his glove? I happened to be in Cleveland when Seattle began a road series against the Guardians on the day Ben’s article ran, so was able to get the answer right from the horse’s mouth.

“It was a matter of adjusting what works best for me reacting to balls left and right,” Rojas told me. “It has to do with my preset. Not getting down too early, not getting down too late. Picking up contact points. Another thing that helps is knowing how the ball usually comes off guys’ bats when certain pitchers are throwing. There is constant communication between me, the pitching coaches, and Bone [infield coach Perry Hill] on what the plan is for the series.”

The preset is what I was most interested in, so I asked the erstwhile Arizona Diamondback — Rojas became a Mariner at last July’s trade deadline — if he could elaborate. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh talks to Sam Miller of Pebble Hunting about the increase in IL stints at the All-Star break and Sam’s obsession with the evolving strategy of first-and-third situations. Then (41:29) Ben talks to Iowa state representative and Sioux City Explorers pitcher J.D. Scholten about his incredible baseball comeback at age 44, his baseball background, balancing baseball and politics, and his efforts to end MLB blackouts. Finally (1:20:14), Ben and The Athletic’s Evan Drellich talk to former NBC Sports and The Baseball Network president Ken Schanzer about the 30th anniversary of TBN, the first U.S. TV network owned by a pro sports league.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Calcaterra on Glasnow
Link to Devers shoulder story
Link to ASB IL placement data
Link to Sam on first-and-third 1
Link to Sam on first-and-third 2
Link to Clemens clip
Link to Clemens gamer
Link to Manny’s cutoff
Link to Russell on post-2013 changes
Link to Pebble Hunting
Link to Scholten call
Link to Scholten clip
Link to Scholten pitching
Link to Scholten local news clip
Link to Scholten’s B-Ref page
Link to Scholten’s wiki
Link to Gazette story on Scholten
Link to WaPo on Scholten
Link to SI on Scholten
Link to Honkbal wiki
Link to Congressional Baseball Game EW
Link to The Gazette on the blackouts bill
Link to Offerman on Field of Dreams
Link to EW on Field of Dreams
Link to canceled Field of Dreams series
Link to Scholten’s Substack
Link to Scholten’s campaign site
Link to Evan on EW 2168
Link to Evan on a national TV deal
Link to 1994 TBN theme song
Link to 1994 ASG at B-Ref
Link to The Baseball Network wiki
Link to ’93 WaPo story on Ken
Link to 1993 most powerful people
Link to 1991 most powerful people
Link to The Baseball Network sources
Link to Schanzer retirement story
Link to rookie All-Star SP
Link to ballpark meetup forms
Link to meetup organizer form

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In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.

For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that are above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%. That definition covers 20 teams, down from 22 last year. I’ll include the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and while I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. As MLB pauses for the All-Star break, I thought I’d pause for one of my own. Just like the league, I’d like to recognize the stars of my own personal baseball bubble. There’s a lot of overlap between the guys who populate Five Things most frequently and the best players in the game, but it’s not a complete overlap. You generally know what you’re getting with this column: some fun, fluky plays and players. Today, you’re just getting an aggregated version of that: the most fun I had in the first half of the year. And no, if you’re wondering, there are no Didn’t Likes this week, c’mon. As always, thanks to Zach Lowe for the idea for this format, which is just as exciting (to me) in baseball as it is in basketball.
Read the rest of this entry »