Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Right off the bat, I have to tell you that I don’t love the name I gave the statistic I created last week. RE-RA9 doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. The concept – adjusting run-scoring statistics to account for inherited runners – is easy to get your head around, and I think it’s clearly interesting. But while I had fun writing that article, I wasn’t quite happy with where I left off, either on the name front or on the analysis front.

The name thing probably can’t be fixed. I’m not a great namer of things, historically, and I don’t think that’s going to change today. But while I can’t do anything about that, I quickly expanded my coverage from 2026 to, well, as much of baseball as I could. If this statistic is interesting, it’s interesting as much for its application throughout history as for who’s good and bad at it this year. So with the help of the FanGraphs play-by-play database, which stretches back to 1974, I built RE-RA9 for the vast majority of the era where there were enough relief appearances for this statistic to even make sense. Forget Grant Anderson and Chase Silseth, the two poster boys from my first article. Let’s get some famous guys and seasons in here.

For example, here are the 10 pitchers who have done the most to prevent inherited runners from scoring (RE-RA9 lower than actual RA9), minimum 1,000 innings pitched:

Read the rest of this entry »

Hello. While on paternity leave, I kept a journal about baseball and my daughter, who is not named Derek Jr., but who will henceforth be referred to as Derek Jr. You can read all of the entries here.

May 11
Yesterday was Mother’s Day, and I thought that would be the theme of my entry. I wasn’t actually planning on writing about my wife, though. I was planning on writing about her friends.

This isn’t my story to tell, but my wife has had a really difficult life. She’s had to overcome more than anyone I’ve ever known, and she’s had to work very hard to get where she is. Part of the reason she’s made it so far is that she has built an amazing collection of friends stretching all the way back to preschool. She is kind and outgoing and selfless. She is an incredibly supportive friend, and now that she could use some help herself, she’s got an army behind her. One friend was waiting at our apartment to help out when we got home from the hospital. One checked an enormous suitcase of hand-me-downs the last time she visited. One had a baby nine months before us, and when we visited her over the winter, she sent us home with a bag of clothes and a trunk full of fancy baby gadgets we never would have thought to get ourselves. Another made a mobile for Derek Jr. by hand and is scouring the Buy Nothing app for free diapers and baby supplies. Another is visiting town — from Europe — for two weeks and coming over most days to cook for us and do laundry. Those who can’t visit have sent gifts and FaceTimed the baby.

I have been really moved by the support I’ve gotten from my own friends, but this is something else entirely. My wife has put so much good into the world, and the world is taking this opportunity to show how much it is appreciated. It’s overwhelming evidence of a life lived right. Anyway, that’s what I thought I was going to write about. Or maybe this onesie that my wife has been saving for Mother’s Day. Instead we’re going to talk about the injured list. Read the rest of this entry »

Max Clark is among the top position player prospects in baseball. Three years removed from being drafted third overall by the Detroit Tigers out of the Indiana’s Franklin Community High School, the left-haded-hitting 21-year-old outfielder has been described by our prospect team as having “a mature blend of tools and skills that belie his young age,” as well as a “feel to hit [that] stands out.” Clark is currently holding his own as one of the youngest players in Triple-A. Over 310 plate appearances with the Toledo Mud Hens, he has 22 extra-base hits, including six home runs, to go with a .264/.346/.394 slash line and a 100 wRC+.

In the latest installment of our Talks Hitting series, Clark discusses his approach at the plate, as well as developmental strides he has made since coming to pro ball. My conversation with the 60-FV prospect took place prior to Wednesday’s Mud Hens game in Worcester, Massachusetts.

———

David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Max Clark: “I’m definitely a feel-for-hit guy. I have developed more power over the last couple years, obviously from growing up, but also from understanding where to do damage on which pitches and in which counts. Overall, I’m just going to hit. I’m going to put the ball in play. I hate striking out; I absolutely despise it. So, I want to put the ball in play and let my speed tool work, steal bases, cause chaos. But when I get a pitch in the damage zone, I’ll take a rip.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the rise and fall of Ildemaro Vargas, the Mets’ and Cubs’ David Peterson swap, Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s refusal to wear a cup, the Giants’ response to Pride Night fallout, and the owners’ CBA strategy. Then (56:41) Ben brings back John Brebbia to discuss the Rockies reliever’s return to the majors, how he’s handling the journeyman phase of his career, when to opt out of a contract, Colorado’s player-dev improvements, Triple-A attitudes, how the minors have changed, the greatest major league luxury, dugout pitch-calling, challenging, his entrance song, how he and other players are following the labor talks, and more.

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: The Spaghettis, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)”

Link to Lennon song
Link to MLFAD
Link to “Train Daddy” article
Link to “Railroad Daddy” article
Link to Brebbia’s first appearance
Link to Vargas hot streak
Link to Vargas cold streak
Link to Voros’s Law
Link to gambler’s fallacy
Link to Vargas collision
Link to Flowers for Algernon adaptations
Link to Charly
Link to TV movie
Link to Awakenings
Link to “Snakes alive” slogan
Link to Nora Morse wiki
Link to FG post on the Cubs
Link to MLBTR on Peterson
Link to Gary Cohen quote
Link to Mets’ six errors
Link to Chisholm clip
Link to Chisholm story
Link to Mariners testicle injury thread
Link to Haniger story
Link to risk compensation wiki
Link to catcher helmets interview
Link to lollipop story
Link to Davitt interview
Link to Posey clip
Link to SF Chronicle on the Giants
Link to The Athletic on the Giants
Link to KNBR interview story
Link to Devers apology story
Link to Vitello’s The Town reference
Link to Manfred letter
Link to The Athletic on MLB’s proposals
Link to MLBTR on MLB’s proposals
Link to Play Sun Smart initiative
Link to Rockies team attitude story
Link to Senzatela pitch mix
Link to Bull Durham scene
Link to Collins quote
Link to dugout pitch-calling story
Link to dugout pitch-calling story 2
Link to Ben on dugout pitch-calling
Link to Wham! song
Link to story about Brebbia’s song
Link to Zoolander scene
Link to Meyer quote

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Through their ups and downs this season — a pair of 10-game winning streaks here, a 10-game losing streak there — the one constant for the Cubs has been injuries to their starting pitchers. On that front, this week brought a flurry of bad news. Not only did both Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown land on the injured list on Wednesday, bringing their current total of sidelined starters to six, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announced that Justin Steele, who suffered a setback in late April while rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery, isn’t likely to rejoin the rotation this season. In need of warm bodies to provide some innings, the team swung a trade with the Mets to acquire lefty David Peterson, a 2025 All-Star who has been getting lit up this year, but if the Cubs aspire to maintain their hold on a playoff spot, they’ll need significantly more help ahead of the August 3 trade deadline.

At this writing, seven of the 11 pitchers who have made at least one start for the team this season — including openers — have landed on the IL at least once, and that count doesn’t even include Steele. With Wednesday’s moves, five of the six pitchers forecast to throw the most innings for the team in our preseason Positional Power Rankings were out hurt, though Thursday’s scheduled activation of Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd from his second IL stint reduces that count. The Cubs rotation ranked 20th in projected WAR in our PPR, with a projected 4.03 ERA and a 4.15 FIP, but even that level of performance has been unattainable. Currently, Chicago is 26th in starting pitcher WAR (2.9), with a combined 4.64 ERA and a 4.79 FIP, and while the team’s use of the occasional opener fuzzes up those stats a bit, the bullpen (including bulk pitchers) has netted -0.3 WAR, with a 3.82 ERA and a 4.62 FIP. Don’t even ask about ready help from the minors, as the organization’s top upper-level pitching prospects — Jaxon Wiggins, Brody McCullough, Brandon Birdsell, Connor Noland — either are currently hurt or have been ineffective. It’s a bleak situation everywhere you look, at least at the moment. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Oh thank goodness, there are questions in the queue

12:04

Dan Szymborski: I think so, but it may be closer than they’re comfortable with, especially if they have a quiet deadline

12:04

Dan Szymborski: I’m not *highly confident* the Phillies are five games better than the Braves, but I think that it’s not unlikely

12:05

Dan Szymborski: If that makes sense

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the things I try to emphasize when I talk about projections is that they’re not numbers written in stone, but an array of estimates that’s always moving. Each individual plate appearance or inning pitched, while not a needle-mover on its own, adds to our knowledge of a player and very gently changes his career trajectory. Forecasting a player isn’t all that different from forecasting a hurricane, but thankfully, players cause a lot less mayhem. Except maybe Len Koenecke.

It’s been three months since the start of the season, and we have a lot of new information about players. Since we’re approaching the halfway point of the season, and the fact that I’m getting a few dozen chat questions a week about which players have seen their projections change the most, I thought this would be an appropriate time to do an in-season ZiPS run with the full-fat model that is too compute-intensive to run every day. To keep the list relevant to 2026 MLB goings-on, I narrowed it to players who either have played in the majors this year or are one of the 1,232 prospects on The Board. So my apologies to players such as Peyton Alford, who has seen his 2027 ERA+ projection jump from 88 to 110.

I’ve also separated starters from relievers, with pitchers projected to start in at least a third of their appearances landing with the starters. Since relievers tend to be more volatile than starting pitchers, I wanted to make sure the latter were represented. After all, a bump of 10 points of ERA+ in 180 innings is more impactful for a team than 15 points of ERA+ in 60 relief innings! Read the rest of this entry »

With the 2026 college baseball season having just concluded (a hearty congratulations to both the University of Oklahoma and the College World Series’ Most Outstanding Player, Jaxon Willits), the MLB Draft Combine still in progress, and the Draft itself rapidly approaching, now seems like as good time as any to remind everyone that we added Division I college baseball statistics to the site last year. In addition to college leaderboards, Division I players have their own player pages, while the college stats of drafted pro players can be found on their pro player pages (undrafted free agents currently have separate college and pro player pages, though we’re working to merge them).

The leaderboards can be accessed within the Leaders tab on the main FanGraphs navigation bar:

Before I dive in, here are the basics:

• Stats go back to 2021 and, as they are for professional leagues on the site, they’re updated daily during the season.
• wRC+ is conference-adjusted, not park-adjusted as it is for the minors and majors.
• Unlike most other FanGraphs leaderboards, there are no Dashboard or customization options for Members; what you see under the Standard and Advanced options is the full suite of college stats available.

Using the various drop-downs at the top of the page, you can build your own leaderboard. For example, you might be interested in the best seasons for Miami University (go RedHawks!) hitters since 2021, by wRC+:

Or the best SEC seasons by strikeout rate:

I used “Qualified” as my plate appearance/innings pitched minimum for both of these leaderboards. The qualified playing time rules are same as they are for affiliated ball: 2.1 plate appearances or one inning pitched per team game.

Our college player pages look much the same as the pro player pages, just with fewer statistics. There are even the customizable player cards you’ll find on all player pages, though of course the RosterResource information and Spark Graphs will have to wait:

College stats on the player pages is hidden by default for players who have more than one year of minor league data. College stats can be toggled back on using the College button at the top of each data table:

Turning college stats on for any table within a player’s page will turn it on for all tables, so long as you remain on that player’s page. Turning college stats on doesn’t make the other stats go away, of course, so you can view a player’s entire journey from college up through the minor leagues and into the majors. Here are Nick Kurtz’s ridiculous hitting lines since college:

One last thing to highlight: If the team abbreviations you see prove inscrutable, don’t worry – we have a fix for that! You don’t have to Google where the country’s second-leading hitter by batting average attended school. You can simply hover over the abbreviation in question to view the school’s full name:

As is always the case at FanGraphs, exporting college data to Excel is limited to Members.