FanGraphs Baseball

Well, I jumped the gun by a year. Last year, I got excited that the Homerless Qualifier Club might be reopening. Nick Allen was playing every day for the Braves, and Nick Allen’s approach to impacting the baseball is sort of like Atticus Finch’s approach to parenting: It’s composed almost entirely of occasional, gentle nudges in the right direction. If Allen could just get enough plate appearances, I figured, he’d qualify for the batting title without a single home run to his name, making him just the second new member since 2012. The problem was that Allen didn’t just lack punch; he couldn’t get on base at all. The Braves batted him last and pinch-hit for him every chance they got, then gave his spot to waiver wire pickup Ha-Seong Kim. Allen never homered, but he ended up 86 plate appearances short of qualifying. This year is different. This year it’s in the bag. Chandler Simpson has already qualified for the batting title, and he is about to finish the season without a single home run.

As was the case for Allen, the reason that the Homerless Qualifier Club has been closed for business for so long is that it’s really hard for a regular baseball player to be playable without any power whatsoever. Allen’s a defensive specialist whose game has never been built around the home run ball, but he still needs some base level of power to keep his offense from sinking the entire profile. Think of your favorite contact hitter – Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Nico Hoerner – these guys are much better at avoiding strikeouts than Allen, and they still hit the ball hard enough to rack up a bunch of doubles and at least a handful of home runs a year. Meager though it is, if that power production were to disappear, their offense would simply be too much of a deficit to overcome. They’d stop getting enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. That’s why the pipeline has dried up.

This season, Allen has just 161 plate appearances with the Astros, but he’s betrayed us to the tune of a whopping three home runs. Stretch that over 500 plate appearances and he’s nearly in double digits. My point is that although these are extreme examples of contact hitters, they still have plenty in common with the rest of the league. They are still looking to drive the ball, at the very least, over the infield. Simpson may as well be playing a different sport. Read the rest of this entry »

October is one of our busier months editorially. We cover all of the postseason action, from previewing the relevant team strengths and weaknesses that might define each series to writing game stories for every game, with our writers often at the ballpark to bring you insight from the clubhouse. In fact, this year, we’re committed to having staff at every World Series game, allowing for additional reported work and greater access to players and team personnel, with in-person coverage throughout the earlier rounds as well. Needless to say, it’s a lot of work and travel, and it also sits outside the cadence of our usual baseball coverage, as it’s one of the few times a year when our staff consistently works on something resembling a beat writer’s schedule.

That’s why it’s frustrating that the amount of advertising revenue our playoff coverage generates is often so meager. The baseball season is predictably cyclical, and while many of our readers frequent the site regardless of which teams are playing in the World Series, from a traffic standpoint, October pales in comparison to March or July. As the field dwindles and more fanbases are disappointed, folks check out, often reengaging with us when free agents start to sign. We think comprehensive postseason coverage is vital to the fan and reader experience, but given the current state of both the internet and advertising, the scale needed to pay for that editorial content is well beyond what October FanGraphs generates in clicks. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another episode of Baseball Writer Notices Something Totally Mundane, Starts Thinking Way Too Hard About It, and Turns it Into an Article, brought to you by FanGraphs, WGBH Boston, and Viewers Like You. I’m your host, Bob Vila.

A couple weeks ago, I was at a Phillies-Astros game where Don Mattingly chose to pinch-run for Luis Arraez with Garrett Stubbs. It’s not every day you see a catcher pinch-run for a second baseman, though it made sense for reasons I’ll get into in a second. A week later, I was at home watching a Guardians-White Sox game, and Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt inserted David Fry as a pinch-runner for Patrick Bailey in a high-leverage situation.

Fry came up as a catcher, and while he’s made a handful of appearances behind the plate this year, these days he’s more of a four-corners bat-first guy. Even so, he still runs like a catcher. Still, Vogt — who’s a good manager with exceptional analytical integration with his front office — chose to put Fry’s leaden getaway sticks on the basepaths with the division title on the line. Read the rest of this entry »

Direct link to application (please see job details below):

Data Scientist

Data Scientist

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians Baseball Research & Development (R&D) group is seeking to hire data scientists, either senior or entry-level. In this role, you will work alongside the rest of the R&D group to transform a treasure trove of scientific data (e.g., box scores, bat/ball/player tracking, video) into an information pipeline that helps us acquire better players, improve those players, and equip our coaches and players to emerge victorious.

The Cleveland Guardians strongly prefer our teammates to reside in or relocate to Cleveland, Ohio. Exceptional candidates may be considered for remote work. We can also be flexible on start dates.

Core Job Functions

Data Scientists in our R&D group apply quantitative methods to make us better on the field. Depending on your skills and interests, your work may include:

• Building statistical and/or machine learning models to guide player acquisitions, player development philosophy, and Major League decision-making.
• Creating tools, prototypes, and visualizations that connect R&D insights to coaches, players, and baseball operations staff.
• Communicating complex ideas clearly to both technical and non-technical audience, including executives, coaches, and players.

Basic Requirements

• Degree or demonstrated experience in a quantitative field (e.g., Statistics, Computer Science, Mathematics, Engineering).
• Proficiency in programming languages such as Python or R for data analysis and modeling.
• Ability to clearly communicate complex ideas to others in both written and verbal form.
• Commitment to continuous learning and solving challenging problems.
• Ability to succeed in a collaborative team-oriented environment.

Preferred Experience (not required)
We are looking for a variety of skillsets. If you have experience with one or more of the following areas, you may be who we are looking for:

Statistical Modeling

• Advanced statistical methods (e.g., fixed effects, random effects, generalized additive models).
• Bayesian statistics and probabilistic programming languages (e.g., Stan).
• Database languages such as SQL.

Machine Learning and AI

• Large language models (LLMs).
• Deep learning frameworks (e.g., TensorFlow, Torch).
• High-dimensional and/or spatiotemporal data.

Domain-Specific Expertise

• Research in a sports context (baseball is a plus).
• Game theory applied in real-world contexts.

Organizational Requirements

• Demonstrates the ability to read, speak, comprehend, and communicate effectively in order to perform job duties and interact with coworkers.
• Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners, teammates, and the general public.
• Ability to build robust, professional relationships with teammates by demonstrating interpersonal skills, approachability, and a collaborative spirit contributing to a positive, respectful work environment.
• Ability to perform the essential physical requirements of the role as outlined in the job description, which may include extended periods of sitting, standing, lifting, or navigating a multilevel ballpark.
• Adapts quickly and effectively to a fast-paced, dynamic, and diverse work environment.
• Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
• Willingness to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
• Willingness to adhere to all Major League Baseball and Club policies.

About Us

As a proud pillar of the Cleveland community, the Cleveland Guardians are dedicated to building a team that embodies the heart and spirit of our city. We offer compensation and benefits that attract, engage, and retain top talent. We are looking for the best person for the job. If you’re interested in this role, we encourage you to apply, even if the salary range below does not meet your expectations.

The expected annual salary range for this position is $60,000–$125,000. This range serves as a general guideline. Actual compensation will be determined based on a candidate’s skills, experience, and qualifications, as well as market and business considerations.

At the Cleveland Guardians, we are all about creating an environment that brings out the best in everyone. It is a big part of who we are, how we compete, and how we make an impact in our community. We want every employee to feel like they truly belong here.

We also know that people sometimes hesitate to apply for jobs unless they check every single box on the qualifications list. We’re looking for the best person for the job, and we know that you might bring skills and experiences that aren’t exactly listed but could be a huge asset to our team. So, if this role excites you, we encourage you to apply, even if you don’t meet every single qualification.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.

Back from vacation, I returned to the field Monday for an Instructional League game between the Athletics and Rockies. How is the Instructional League different from the Bridge League, which I’ve covered previously? Both are unofficial leagues with a scrimmage-style setting, but “Instructs” take place after the rest of the minor league schedule has concluded, and typically includes a handful of select players from the various affiliates that the parent club wants to see more of, and maybe the best couple of guys from each org’s DSL squad. So, Bridge League (which takes place after the Draft and Complex League seasons are over but before the rest of the minors are done) features rookie-level players, new draftees, and rehabbers, while Instructional League has more select talent from several different minor league levels, and often includes Arizona Fall Leaguers who are getting ramped up for their looming slate. There isn’t the same kind of internal team video or shared data for this window as there is for regular season affiliated ball, so this makes Instructs particularly useful to see in person. Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees had to make do without Aaron Judge for all of June, July and August due to a stress fracture in his right first rib. With the days on the calendar dwindling and the AL East title still in play — which is no longer the case after the Rays clinched on Tuesday night — Judge bypassed a rehab assignment, but once he returned, he played in just seven games before landing back on the injured list due to a right calf strain. Both the slugger and the team took great pains to avoid discussing the injury’s specificity and timeline for recovery until Tuesday, when manager Aaron Boone revealed that Judge has a “moderate grade” strain, received a platelet-poor plasma injection, and isn’t expected to be available for the team’s Wild Card Series rematch against the Red Sox.

While deadline acquisition Heliot Ramos has heated up after a very slow start to his pinstriped career, the Yankees’ right field situation is one of the more glaring potential trouble spots among American League contenders. As the playoffs approach, teams no longer have a chance to upgrade from outside their organizations and instead must make do with the talent on hand. What follows here is a look at the most vulnerable teams at each position — something of a companion to my annual pre-deadline Replacement Level Killers series, with a focus on the teams that still have a chance to make the playoffs. For the AL, that means the Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox — all of whom have clinched spots — plus the Guardians, White Sox, Rangers, and Astros, who are battling for the other two division titles and the third Wild Card spot. I’ve taken the Blue Jays out of consideration, as their Playoff Odds now start with a zero in front of the decimal. While full-season performances play a significant part here, I’m more concerned with who’s worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Each position has a headliner (or two, if it’s a job share), but at several positions, I’ve noted other teams with concerns. A companion National League piece will follow. Read the rest of this entry »

Royalty is all about taking a select few and placing them upon a pedestal for adoration and worship by the faceless masses. And often, when a team wins a title, it happens as a result of star players doing what star players do — making big plays at pivotal moments and swaying outcomes with jaw-dropping feats. But as the championship series of the WPBL’s inaugural season progressed from one game to the next, the stories behind each result weren’t written by the team captains or the players with the most impressive regular-season stats. Rather, a varied cast of unlikely heroes took the stage each night and managed to put on a unique rendition of a show we’ve all seen dozens of times before. We’re all familiar with how a playoff series typically unfolds, and we’ve even seen how it’s gone when these exact teams faced one another during the regular season. And yet, a band of unlikely heroes with representation from both the Los Angeles Queens and the San Francisco Firebells came together to offer us something completely unexpected.

Below we’ll walk through the five-act play that was the WPBL’s championship series, which went the full five games and which the Queens ultimately won, and highlight the unlikely heroes from each game by describing what they did and why their accomplishments were so improbable.

Game 1: Queens 7, Firebells 6

Because their first-round series with the Heights went the full three games, the Queens had just one day off prior to Game 1 of the championship series on Wednesday. Comparatively, the Firebells’ last game was the previous Friday, since their series against the Hunters began one day prior to Queens-Heights and San Francisco dispatched of Boston in a two-game sweep. Michelle Roche — the Queens’ most effective starter — threw 3 1/3 innings in Game 3 against the Heights, and Ayami Sato — their only other pitcher with more than one start during the regular season — threw two innings in Game 3 after covering three innings in Game 2. Out of necessity, Game 1 was a bullpen game for Los Angeles, while the Firebells got to line up their optimal rotation, which meant no. 1 starter Kelsie Whitmore took the ball for San Francisco in the series opener. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s return from vacation and their podcast-producer search, then discuss the uncertain statuses of Aaron Judge, Alex Bregman, and Shohei Ohtani on the precipice of the playoffs, how similar finishes in consecutive seasons can produce extra-disappointing or surprisingly uplifting results (featuring thoughts on the Astros, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals), the Padres’ recent run, Paul Skenes pinning part of the blame for his inconsistent season on the WBC, what to call the Tigers’ rebranded ballpark, managerial moves for the Red Sox and Mets, Cade Cavalli’s extension, business updates involving the Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers, an Ichiro Suzuki sighting, and a pair of weird-lookin’ (hit by) pitches, plus a few follow-ups.

Audio intro: Cory Brent, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Spokane airport expansion
Link to Boone quotes
Link to Judge’s calf explanation
Link to Judge injury update
Link to FG post on Judge
Link to soleus muscle wiki
Link to Ewing Theory explainer
Link to Bregman report
Link to post-ASB WAR
Link to Bregman clip
Link to Bregman face photo
Link to Encarnacion clip
Link to coach box enforcement
Link to Ohtani training
Link to Ohtani return update
Link to Schwarber postseason comeback
Link to “Mr. Autumn Man” article
Link to BaseRuns records
Link to Ben on the Pirates
Link to Skenes comments
Link to Ben on WBC injuries
Link to Ben on WBC pitching
Link to Tigers park renaming
Link to Episode 1639 wiki
Link to bank merger info
Link to Busytown wiki
Link to Richard Scarry wiki
Link to Beer Barrel Man wiki
Link to Red Sox management moves
Link to Mets managerial move
Link to FG post on Cavalli extension
Link to Walter suit
Link to Levine on Walter 1
Link to Levine on Walter 2
Link to Yankees PE article
Link to MLB PE article
Link to Moreno ownership article
Link to Ichiro article
Link to Ichiro video
Link to Halvorsen pitch
Link to Halvorsen pitch article
Link to 2025 Halvorsen pitch
Link to Cantillo pitch
Link to Cantillo pitch article
Link to Windbigler wiki
Link to WPBL gamer
Link to WPBL draft analysis
Link to Ben on PCA vs. Miz
Link to Nakashima wiki
Link to Nakashima stats
Link to MLB sac bunt leaders
Link to Ben on Nakashima
Link to Nakashima retirement story
Link to Nakashima retirement clip
Link to Fighters fan on Nakashima
Link to NYT on sportsbooks

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When Aaron Judge is healthy, he’s the most dangerous hitter in baseball. Sometimes I get alarmed at how uncontroversial a statement that is; ours is a sport that so frequently humiliates those who make such sweeping, unequivocal judgments as those.

But the empirical evidence is what it is. Judge has played 150 or more games in a season four times in his career. In those four seasons, he’s led all position players in WAR four times and led the league in wRC+ three times. He’s been named AL MVP three times and finished second once, ahead of some real doozies: Cal Raleigh’s 60-homer year, Bobby Witt Jr.’s 10.5-WAR campaign in 2024, Shohei Ohtani’s best pitching season — in fact, a healthy Judge is the only thing that’s ever trumped a healthy Ohtani in an MVP race.

So again, it’s not uncontroversial to say that when Judge is healthy he’s the best hitter in the world. He has not, however, always been healthy. Least of all this season, when he missed three months with a broken rib. And now, the single-season AL home run king is back on the IL with a calf strain. The timing could not be worse. Read the rest of this entry »

Ah, the end of September. For most teams in baseball, it’s a time for planning. Out of the race? It’s time to plan for the future. Playoff spot locked up? Time to plan for October. The Brewers are no exception. They’ve cruised to a postseason bye and look very likely to end the year as the top overall seed. But while the games the rest of the regular season aren’t of huge import to them, one decision is: What to do about Kyle Harrison.

If Jacob Misiorowski hadn’t been the Brewers’ biggest story this year, Harrison would’ve been. After a few tough years in San Francisco and a rocky half-season in Boston, he arrived in Milwaukee in the Caleb Durbin trade and impressed right away. He struck out eight in his first start. He kicked it into overdrive by the end of April. An early summer slowdown notwithstanding, he had spectacular numbers at the All-Star break, and I was surprised he missed earning his first appearance at the Midsummer Classic.

In the end, he wouldn’t have played in the game anyway. The Brewers put him on the IL on July 11 with forearm tightness. When he returned in August, he was down a few ticks of velocity and looked like he was searching for the form that had so befuddled hitters earlier in the year. After a few near-misses and inefficient outings, the wheels fell off in Chicago on August 31; the Cubs tagged him for nine runs in 3.2 innings, courtesy of a gruesome five home runs. In his next start, at Cincinnati on September 6, he gave up six more runs and walked as many as he struck out. Read the rest of this entry »