Let’s Check In on the Odds on Apple TV+’s Friday Night Baseball Broadcasts

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, I looked into the odds displayed on Apple TV+’s Friday Night Baseball broadcasts. I found them to not be very good. Then I stopped paying attention; there are a ton of baseball games on every week, most of which Apple does not broadcast, and even when I did watch an Apple game, I basically ignored the odds. I knew they were silly, after all – why distract myself by looking at them?

Of course, I didn’t really expect that to keep going indefinitely. Apple is a massive company. They have more than 150,000 full-time employees, and a ridiculous proportion of that group knows how to code. At its core, this is a data problem. There are companies I’d trust over Apple to solve a data problem, but there aren’t a lot of companies, you know? Sure, they outsourced their predictions to nVenue, a sports analytics company, but they’re Apple. Surely they’d find a way to make this all work. I noted their relative inaccuracy in my head as a temporary curiosity and moved on.

Last month, I started compiling data for an update. It’s all well and good to assume things have changed, but at some point, you have to go verify it. I decided to wait for the back half of the season because of the way I designed my test, which I’ll now explain. Similar to last time, I started by watching a bunch of games. This time, I got data from the 12 Apple TV+ games played between August 18 and September 22. I watched the entirety of those broadcasts and noted the last probability, if any, displayed before every pitch. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Guardians – Senior Platform Engineer

Senior Platform Engineer (Full-Stack / DevOps), Baseball Systems

Are you interested in joining the Cleveland Guardians’ thriving Baseball Systems team? We are an expanding department focused on creating innovative software tools and data solutions that directly impact the organization’s ability to acquire players, develop their skills, and optimize their performance. The products we build facilitate operations and enhance decision-making across all areas of the organization, and help answer questions such as “Which trades should we execute?”, “Who should we select with our next pick in the draft?”, and “How can we help players use data from yesterday’s game to improve?” If you enjoy working on large-scale data products, developing high-impact tools, and collaborating with talented individuals, we want to hear from you.

As a Senior Platform Engineer, you will maintain and improve the organization’s software development, deployment, and infrastructure processes, and support the development of user-facing products. This role requires strong DevOps and Full-Stack experience: you will leverage DevOps best practices, cloud technologies, Terraform, and container orchestration to ensure the team’s projects and systems run smoothly, and you will develop tooling, platform components, and user-facing products to improve our software solutions. We anticipate that, once DevOps processes are developed and established, this role will shift to have more of a focus on Full-Stack Development.

This is an exciting opportunity to join the Cleveland Guardians as a Senior Platform Engineer and contribute to the success of our organization by implementing efficient DevOps practices, managing cloud infrastructure, and ensuring reliable software delivery. Your technical expertise and passion for automation will play a vital role in maintaining a seamless experience for our Baseball Systems team and helping the Cleveland Guardians accomplish their ultimate mission of winning the World Series.

We prefer our employees (or teammates) reside in Cleveland, Ohio, but we will consider and discuss the possibility of remote work.

Key Responsibilities:

  1. DevOps Implementation: Collaborate with the development team to implement and evangelize efficient DevOps practices and workflows, including continuous integration, continuous delivery (CI/CD), and automated testing.
  2. Cloud Infrastructure Architecture: Design, automate, deploy, and monitor infrastructure and cloud management using tools like Terraform.
  3. Software Development: Build software for developers that will accelerate the development of cutting-edge baseball products and enable end users to make better, faster decisions that come with the day-to-day operations of running an MLB team.
  4. Deployment and Orchestration: Implement and manage deployment pipelines to automate software releases. Define best practices for containerizing and orchestrating applications for efficient and scalable deployments.
  5. Monitoring and Troubleshooting: Set up monitoring and alerting systems to proactively identify and resolve issues in the infrastructure and applications.
  6. Collaboration and Communication: Work closely with cross-functional teams, including developers, testers, information systems, and product managers, to ensure smooth collaboration and effective communication. Participate in team meetings and contribute to agile development practices.

Required Skills and Qualifications:

  • Experience in DevOps practices, including CI/CD, automated testing, and infrastructure as code
  • Full Stack Development experience with proficiency in at least one programming language (e.g., Python, JavaScript, C#, etc.)
  • Experience in building and deploying cloud technologies (e.g., GCP, AWS, Azure, etc.)
  • Hands-on experience with infrastructure provisioning and management using Terraform or similar tools
  • Familiarity with containerization technologies (e.g., Docker)and orchestration frameworks (e.g., Kubernetes)

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Proficiency in more than one development language
  • Proficiency in CI/CD design and processes
  • Experience with Terragrunt
  • Experience in Google Cloud Platform (GCP)

Organizational Requirements:

  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English effectively
  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times
  • Ability to work with diverse populations and have a demonstrated commitment to social justice
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends
  • Ability to work in a complex and changing environment

The Cleveland Guardians are committed to developing and maintaining an environment that embraces all forms of diversity to enrich our core values, enhance our competitive position, strengthen our impact within our community, and foster a greater sense of belonging for our employees.

In this spirit, we know studies have shown that people from historically underserved groups – including women and people of color – are less likely to apply for jobs unless they believe they meet every one of the qualifications as described in a job description. We are most interested in finding the best candidate for the job and understand that candidate may bring certain skills and experiences to the role that are not listed in our job description, but that would add tremendous value to our organization. We would encourage you to apply, even if you don’t believe you meet every one of our qualifications described.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.


Job Posting: Boston Red Sox – Multiple Associate Openings

2024 Baseball Operations Associate

Location: Boston, MA
Department: Baseball Operations

Position Overview:
The Baseball Operations Associate will support all areas of the Baseball Operations Department, while primarily focusing on one or two areas (Amateur Scouting, International Scouting, Professional Scouting, Major League Strategic Information, Baseball Strategy & Personnel) with day-to-day administrative and office management duties.

Timeline: January 2024 – December 2024

Responsibilities:

  • Assist with day-to-day operations for assigned department.
  • Assist with research projects.
  • Creatively pursue ways to improve internal processes.
  • Organize and maintain information from non-office personnel.
  • Manage video database including tagging & editing.
  • Prepare information and logistics for meetings.
  • Assist with various administrative and research projects.
  • Operate various technology during home games.

Characteristics / Qualifications:

  • Strong administrative skills.
  • Ability to multitask in stressful situations.
  • Strategic thinking & planning.
  • Organized, proactive, and strong communicative skills.
  • Proficient in Microsoft Office.
  • Experience with SQL, R, Python is a plus, not required.
  • Fluency in Spanish is a plus, but not required.
  • Willing to work nights, weekends, and holidays.
  • Prior softball or baseball experience is preferred.
  • Valid Driver’s License.

Prospective employees will receive consideration without discrimination based on race, religious creed, color, sex, age, national origin, handicap, disability, military/veteran status, ancestry, sexual orientation, gender identity/expression or protected genetic information.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


2024 Player Development Associate

Location: Fort Myers, FL
Department: Baseball Operations

Department Overview:
The Player Development Staff is dedicated to cultivating impact talent from around the globe utilizing best-in-class practices for mental, physical, and fundamental progression. Utilizing innovative technology, dynamic training, and modern facilities, we provide our staff with growth opportunities throughout various industry paths.

Position Overview:
The Player Development Associate will be a member of the Player Development team, and is responsible for assisting with baseball operations at our complex in Fort Myers, FL. This individual will collaborate closely with Player Development front office personnel, coordinators, and coaches.

Timeline: February 2024-October 2024

Responsibilities:

  • Assist with day-to-day logistics for Minor League Spring Training, Extended Spring Training, Florida Complex League, and Instructional League.
  • Assist with daily administrative operations.
  • Organize and distribute game video in a timely and quality manner.
  • Manage video database to ensure it is readily available for staff and players to view.
  • Collect non-game video proactively and at the request of staff.
  • Operate and maintain various technology such as Blast, Rapsodo, Trackman, and Edgertronic cameras.
  • Distribute analytical information to PD staff in collaboration our Analytics department.
  • Assist with various administrative projects as assigned by coaching staff and Front Office.

Characteristics / Qualifications:

  • Strong administrative skills.
  • Organized, proactive, and strong communicative skills.
  • Proficient in Microsoft Office.
  • Willing to work nights, weekends, and holidays.
  • Prior softball or baseball experience.
  • Prior video experience (BATS, Synergy, Edgertronic).
  • Prior technology experience with one or more of the following: Trackman, Blast, Rapsodo, HitTrax.
  • Fluency in Spanish is a plus, but not required.

Prospective employees will receive consideration without discrimination based on race, religious creed, color, sex, age, national origin, handicap, disability, military/veteran status, ancestry, sexual orientation, gender identity/expression or protected genetic information.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


2024 Minor League Video & Technology Associate

Location: Multiple Locations
Department: Baseball Operations

Department Overview:
Members of the Baseball Systems Team at the Boston Red Sox are focused on designing, building, and refining the software and data pipelines used within Baseball Operations. These tools and applications are an integral part of the decision-making process, are directly integrated in the workflows of all departments within Baseball Operations, and provide an efficient, consistent, and accessible experience when interacting with our internal data sources and applications.

Position Overview:
The Minor League Video & Technology Associate will be a member of the Player Development team, and is responsible for managing video and data collection at their assigned affiliate. This individual will collaborate closely with the coaching staff, coordinators, Player Development, Baseball Systems, and Analytics front office members.

Timeline: February 2024 – October 2024

Responsibilities:

  • Collect video by setting up multiple cameras and using BATS video software.
  • Organize and distribute game video in a timely and quality manner.
  • Manage video database to ensure it is readily available for staff and players to view.
  • Manage all video equipment and computers making sure it is properly cared for and working effectively.
  • Collect non-game video proactively and at the request of staff.
  • Operate and maintain various technology used at affiliate such as Blast, Rapsodo, Trackman, Hawkeye, Kinatrax, and Edgertronic cameras.
  • Distribute analytical information to coaching staff produced by our Analytics department.
  • Assist with various administrative projects as assigned by coaching staff and Front Office.
  • Assist in video collection and technology implementation during Spring Training.

Prospective employees will receive consideration without discrimination based on race, religious creed, color, sex, age, national origin, handicap, disability, military/veteran status, ancestry, sexual orientation, gender identity/expression or protected genetic information.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.


Effectively Wild Episode 2064: All Down the Foul Line

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about The Rolling Stones’ credentials as a baseball band, Mike Trout’s slow healing, more Padres reporting and one-run-game whiplash, the Mariners’ rough stretch, how well this year’s playoff teams are built for October, and the most bonkers stats of the season, plus a few follow-ups.

Audio intro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Stones tweet
Link to Stones/MLB shop
Link to new Stones single
Link to info on the Stones at Shea
Link to article about Trout
Link to Liver King info
Link to Padres payroll article
Link to Rob Mains on the Padres
Link to RosterResource payroll page
Link to Dan S. on playoff factors
Link to Dan on 2023 playoff teams
Link to Jay on the Astros
Link to bonkers stats article
Link to Looney Tunes characters
Link to Galvis sleep article
Link to Boggs boat article

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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Which Teams Are Best Built for Postseason Success?

Ronald Acuña Jr.
Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

What causes teams to succeed in the playoffs? This is one of the debates in baseball most ridden with conventional wisdom, folksy tales, and grand assertions. Some claim that teams need to have playoff experience. Others focus on clutch performance, which usually coincides with whatever the person wishes to argue. A common argument, more cloaked in the language of reasonableness, is that teams that are more reliant on home runs than other ways of scoring underperform in the postseason. There are myriad reasons given for why some teams end up winning October, and most of them can tested for accuracy based on baseball history. I did a piece last year that looked at dozens of different team variables, and most of the explanations meant bupkis.

That doesn’t necessarily mean we throw our hands in the air and just assume teams are equally as good as they are in the regular season and go with that. There are significant structural differences between postseason and regular-season play simply due to the number of games and the increased number of off-days. Regular-season winning percentage is one of the few good predictors of postseason success; projections do even better. When I change the methodology in the ZiPS projections to focus more on a team’s frontline talent and the exact matchups and less on important regular-season things like depth, team strength becomes significantly more predictive of postseason success.

One of the best recent examples of this is the Nationals in 2019. Despite the 13-win regular-season advantage of the Dodgers, ZiPS projected their NLDS as a coin flip on the strength of the Nats being able to stuff so much of their team’s value into players who would be on the field. That was a projection that got a lot of pushback, but in the end, Washington won the World Series, basically riding the top of the rotation, a few really good hitters, and the two or three relievers that Dave Martinez could actually trust. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/26/23

2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my final chat of the 2023 regular season. I’ve got a piece today on the Astros’ September struggles (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-one-night-at-least-justin-verlander-st…) and yesterday dared to question the rush to anoint Ronald Acuña Jr. MVP by writing about the role of versatility in Mookie Betts’ candidacy (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-betts-versatility-has-enriched-his-…). Anyway, let’s get to it…

2:04
Jason N: Snell about to get CY award #2, but I’ve never seen him in a HoF discussion.  His awards will be pretty far apart (about 5 years).  Is this unprecedented to have a player with some far apart peak years but very little in between?

2:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think it’s mostly pretty early to entertain a serious Hall of Fame discussion about any starter beyond the big four (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke) and Cole, and that goes for Snell, who hasn’t even reached 1,000 innings (he’s at 992.2. The shape of his career thus far is unusual in that his two Cy-Caliber seasons account for about 63% of his 21.1 career bWAR; his third-best season by that measure was last year, worth just 2.1 WAR. I’m not sure I can find a good parallel offhand, in that even two-time CY winner Denny McClain had a 4.6-WAR season in 1965, three years before the first of his back-to-back awards. But among HOFers, Jim Kaat going 11 seasons between 5.0-WAR years (1962 and ’74) stands out, though he had some with 4+ WAR in that span

2:11
Fletcher: After the Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke group is inducted, how long will it be until the writer’s elect another SP? Do you think someone like Cole will get serious traction or will the reduced workloads be too much of a barrier?

2:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think Cole will have serious traction if he stays healthy. Good chance to reach both 200 wins and 3,000 strikeouts (he’s at 144 and 2,147 now). It’s who comes after that that’s the question.

2:14
KC Pain: Will the Orioles have enough room for all their potential banging at the door in the minors or will they have to make a move or two?

Read the rest of this entry »


For One Night at Least, Justin Verlander Stops the Astros’ September Slide

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

If Houston has a problem, that notion was put on hold for at least one night. Having lost four straight three-game series, three to lousy teams, the Astros arrived in Seattle sporting just a half-game lead over the Mariners for the third AL Wild Card spot, 2.5 games behind the Rangers. Fortunately for the Astros — for whom quality starting pitching has suddenly been in short supply this month — Justin Verlander played the stopper, shutting out the Mariners on two hits over his first eight innings in a 5-1 win.

Facing a team that owns the majors’ second-highest wOBA against four-seamers (.377), the 40-year-old Verlander dialed down his fastball usage in favor of his curve, and retired the Mariners in order in seven of his innings. He struck out the side in the second and fourth innings, and got into trouble only in the third, when Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas hit back-to-back singles and J.P. Crawford followed with a walk. Verlander escaped that jam by inducing Julio Rodríguez to ground into a double play.

By that point, the Astros led 4-0, having banged out three second-inning runs against Luis Castillo via a trio of hard-hit balls from Mauricio Dubón, Martín Maldonado, and Jose Altuve, with Yordan Alvarez adding a fourth-inning homer. From the double-play ball through the end of the eighth, Verlander retired 16 straight Mariners. Given the intact shutout and a pitch count of just 91, manager Dusty Baker sent him out to start the ninth, but Rojas’ double into the right field corner ended Verlander’s night, and Bryan Abreu closed things out, though Rojas came around to score. Verlander struck out eight, benefited from a pair of diving stops by first baseman José Abreu, and allowed just six hard-hit balls out of 18 in play, none of them barrels. Read the rest of this entry »


Kenta Maeda on Evolving as a Pitcher

Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK

Kenta Maeda has had a stellar career on two continents. Now in his seventh big league season — three with the Minnesota Twins preceded by four with the Los Angeles Dodgers — the 35-year-old erstwhile Hiroshima Carp has a 2.95 ERA and a 162-115 won-lost record between NPB and MLB. He’s been as good as ever in September. The Osaka native has been credited with a win in each of his last three decisions while allowing just four runs over 17-and-two-thirds innings. When he next takes the mound it will be with a 4.28 ERA and a 3.96 FIP on the year.

Maeda discussed his evolution as a pitcher, and offered some thoughts on NPB, when the postseason-bound Twins visited Cleveland earlier this month. Daichi Sekizaki served as an interpreter for the interview.

———

David Laurila: How much have you changed as a pitcher since coming over from Japan?

Kenta Maeda: “The first couple of years I was pretty much just myself; I was the same pitcher that I was in Japan. After pitching here for several years, I know what the different hitters’ weaknesses are and when they are getting on to me. I ironed some things out and made adjustments to become better, to become the pitcher that I am today.” Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting – Milwaukee Brewers – Data Engineer, Baseball Systems

Data Engineer, Baseball Systems

Location: Milwaukee, WI

Position Summary:
As part of Baseball Systems, the Data Engineer will collaborate with the High Performance team to assist in developing our athletes. This position will work closely with the Data Engineering team to maintain, enhance, and extend Brewers Baseball Operations data pipelines to meet baseball needs. This position will be responsible for collecting and transforming data from various sources (internal, league, vendors, etc), as well as preparing and distributing data for consumption by the department’s systems and analysts. The ideal candidate is an experienced data pipeline builder who excels at automating and optimizing data systems, with a strong preference for cloud experience.

Our Team:

  • Baseball Systems is the software backbone of Baseball Operations. We provide data and decision-making tools for analysts, coaches, and front office personnel to help win a World Series.
  • Our department consists of a team of data engineers and a team of software engineers who work across all different aspects of Baseball Operations providing support and tools relevant to each group.
  • We work directly with stakeholders in every department of Baseball Operations to ensure every project we work on drives value to the organization and helps us win more games on the field.
  • We help drive technical innovation to find new ways to solve baseball problems.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Design, build, and maintain robust and scalable data pipelines for collecting, processing, and storing data from diverse sources such as databases, APIs, and streaming services.
  • Collaborate with cross-functional teams to integrate data from different systems and ensure data consistency and quality.
  • Collaborate with data scientists, analysts, and other stakeholders to understand their data requirements and provide the necessary support and data access.
  • Implement data transformation and ELT (Extract, Load, Transform) processes to cleanse, aggregate, and enrich data for analytics and reporting.
  • Maintain comprehensive documentation of data pipelines, schemas, and processes for knowledge sharing and auditing purposes.
  • Develop and implement data quality checks and validation processes to ensure data accuracy and reliability.
  • Monitor and optimize data pipelines and database performance to meet business requirements and performance standards.
  • Identify, design, and implement internal process improvements.

Qualifications To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • Experience with programming languages such as Python, Java, or Scala.
  • Experience with SQL, including writing and maintaining queries.
  • Experience in working with data warehousing solutions (e.g., AWS Redshift, Google BigQuery, or Snowflake).
  • Experience working with relational databases such as SQL Server and Postgres.
  • Familiarity with data integration and data pipeline orchestration tools (e.g., Apache Airflow, AWS Glue, Dagster).
  • Experience with version control systems (e.g., Git).
  • Experience with APIs, and data manipulation.

Preferred skillsThe skills listed below will help an individual perform the job, however they are not all required.

  • Experience with data analysis tools including Tableau, Chartio or similar.
  • Experience with cloud services including AWS, Azure, Google Cloud or similar.
  • Experience with DevOps concepts such as Continuous Integration and Continuous Deployment, using TeamCity, Jenkins or similar.
  • Experience with Docker or other containerization technologies.
  • Familiarity with Linux and non-Windows operating systems.
  • Familiarity with advanced statistical baseball concepts, including advanced statistics and player evaluation metrics.
  • Familiarity with SDLC, especially Agile or Kanban concepts.

What will you do each day?

  • Design and develop new features or maintain existing features in our internal web applications.
  • Squash bugs quickly.
  • Collaborate with Baseball Operations staff to plan new features and ensure requirements are met.
  • Develop walk-throughs for non-technical users to familiarize them with new features.
  • Watch baseball.

Our Pitch
You come here to make a difference. We are a purpose-led organization, focused on building an inclusive and engaging culture that fosters excellence, collaboration and ingenuity. We strive to be a model employer and cultivator of talent, empowering our teams to drive innovation through the inclusion of diverse thoughts, ideas and perspectives. We operate at the highest standard of excellence, investing in the development of our staff across all levels and embracing differences through a culture of respect and understanding.

We are proud to offer a highly competitive perks and benefits package including:

  • Exceptional health and dental rates, and fully covered vision package
  • 401(K) match and an additional annual contribution from the Club
  • Unlimited vacation time
  • Paid parental leave
  • Collaborative recognition program and incentives
  • Leadership development programming
  • Online educational platform for personal and professional development
  • Employee Resource Groups
  • Paid time off for volunteering
  • Year-round diversity, equity and inclusion training and development
  • Brewers Home Game tickets, promotional giveaways and other discounts!

For more information about our Crew, other benefits and insight into our Club culture please visit our Careers Page.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Milwaukee Brewers.


Quiet Brilliance, Loud Contact: The Duality of Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, Michael King proved that moving him to the rotation was the best maneuver the Yankees have made in the entire second half by striking out 13 Blue Jays over seven innings. Somewhat lost in the shuffle, as has often been the case over the past few seasons, was Kevin Gausman’s dominance opposite King.

Gausman, who was perhaps better known for his firm fastball as a prospect, has really only taken off since the heater and splitter entered into a timeshare. After only using the split at a 35% clip in one year previously, he’s turned to it at least that often every year since 2021. This season, its usage is at a career-high 38.5%.

The Jays’ right-hander actually out-whiffed King on Wednesday, 17–16, with 11 swings and misses on the split. In terms of balls in play, both King and Gausman allowed just three at an exit velocity of 95 mph or harder. While the whiffs are staples of both pitchers’ games, the hard hits are especially noteworthy; King’s hard-hit rate on the season — 31.4% — ranks fourth lowest among pitchers with at least 90 innings, and Gausman’s, at 11.5 percentage points higher, ranks a paltry 108th. If you prefer barrel rate, King (6.8%) ranks 22nd lowest and Gausman (9.8%) 110th. Read the rest of this entry »