Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Christian Encarnacion-Strand and whether record compound names deserve an asterisk, the appeal of a Legends Home Run Derby, the origins of (and long-ago backlash to) the trade deadline, the greatness of NPB phenom Roki Sasaki, and the new balance of power among pitch types, then (1:03:41) answer listener emails about Shohei Ohtani trade returns, Ohtani’s 2024 salary if he signed a one-year contract, the Rays’ spending, and a change to All-Star Game player usage, plus a Future Blast (1:38:30) from 2034.
I experience baseball in many different forms. Writing is obviously one of them. Watching (both in person and on television) is another. Playing doesn’t happen as much as I’d like to, but it’s still one of them. The last one, which has become the most accessible to me, is through data: performance, expected stats, projections, etc. Data serves as a conversation starter or a thought provoker for me, and I rely on it heavily in my writing to tell the story of a player’s triumphs or struggles, especially Statcast data.
When working with Statcast information, it’s important to understand the inputs that create the data points. For example, I know that xwOBA is formulated using a combination of exit velocity and launch angle (and sometimes sprint speed). Perhaps it would be helpful if there were more inputs such as batted ball spin or spray angle, or perhaps it would complicate things. But what is important is that I know those are not included in the formulation — knowledge that I can use when assessing players for whom those inputs could be statistically important. I’m specifically thinking of the profiles of Isaac Paredes and Cody Bellinger.
Neither Paredes nor Bellinger have big power in terms of raw exit velocity, and neither is a batting average king (although Bellinger is over .300 at this moment in time). Instead, they rely on consistent contact to the pull side in the air to make up for their lack of raw power. I have an idea in my head of what a good hitter is. One of my most general criteria is the ability to hit the ball consistently hard, but it’s important to leave wiggle room there so you don’t exclude the edge cases, like Bellinger and Paredes. Both are below the 20th percentile in terms of average exit velocity and below the 10th percentile in HardHit%, but both have ISOs over .200 with double-digit home runs and doubles. That’s unusual, but it brings me back to stressing the importance of spray angle for a certain group of hitters. Read the rest of this entry »
Kyle B: Hey Jay! Over the all star break we heard a ton of talk about the new CBA and started hearing whispers about the next one….do you think we are staring down another lockout in 2026? Possibly missed games in 2027?
We began this series with Craig Kimbrel striking out José Ramírez to close out the All-Star Game, and I’ll admit, my original intent was to cover all of the pitchers in Part II. But as anyone who reads (or edits) my work knows, when it comes to the Hall of Fame and its candidates, I can go on, and on… and on. In part that’s because I like to use this series as an annual clearinghouse, covering the vast majority of the active players whom readers most frequently ask me about during the course of the year. It may not be a one-stop shop, but with the added volume comes some context for comparisons (Has Freddie Freeman caught up to Paul Goldschmidt? Who has a better shot, Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor? And what about Trea Turner?) In part, it’s also because in the 20 years (!) since I introduced it, my JAWS system has become more complicated and more nuanced, requiring a bit of additional introduction. That’s particularly true when it comes to pitching, where during the 2022 election cycle, I formalized S-JAWS for starting pitchers and R-JAWS for relievers.
I had been messing with the latter since the 2019 cycle, in the context of Billy Wagner’s candidacy. The short version of the story is that while Baseball Reference’s flavor of WAR (which I use in JAWS) features an adjustment for leverage — the quantitatively greater impact on winning and losing that a reliever has at the end of the ballgame than a starter does earlier — to help account for the degree of difficulty, it’s not the only way to measure reliever value. Win Probability Added (WPA) is a context-sensitive measure that accounts for the incremental increase (or decrease) in the chances of winning produced in each plate appearance given the inning, score, and base-out situation. WPA can be additionally adjusted using a pitcher’s average leverage index (aLI) for a stat variably called situational wins or context-neutral wins (referred to as WPA/LI). Both of those are now in the sauce; R-JAWS is the average of a reliever’s WAR (including his time as a starter and a hitter, if any), his WPA, and his WPA/LI. The rankings, which I used to have to create by hand, are now on Baseball Reference, and Wagner, who ranks sixth and is the best reliever outside the Hall, is trending towards election after receiving 68.1% on the 2023 ballot, his eighth year of eligibility. Read the rest of this entry »
Spencer Strider currently leads all qualified starters in strikeout rate. When I learned that bit of information, my immediate reaction was, “Wow, that tiny little guy’s on track to throw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, good for him!”
But Strider is way out in front of the field. His K% is 38.9%; Kevin Gausman is second at 32.6%, with a small group of pitchers clustered behind him in the low 30s. Strider isn’t particularly walk-averse — his BB% is 40th-lowest among 67 qualified starters — and yet his K-BB% of 31.4% would be the fifth-best strikeout rate in the league.
I don’t want to say this is happening without anyone batting an eye — here we are, after all, batting our eyes at Strider’s strikeout rate. But we’ve become so inured to this kind of performance, and so quickly, that it’s worth taking a step back to consider the gravity of what he’s doing. Read the rest of this entry »
The full midseason run of the ZiPS projections have been completed, and while the standings updates are always a lot of fun, they tend to move in a similar direction to our FanGraphs standings, so they’re usually not the most shocking. What I find the most interesting are the player projections, and not even the numbers for the rest of the season — the in-season model is simpler, but improvements in the full model are naturally going to be incremental — but the ones that look toward 2024 and beyond.
For today, we’ll start with the hitters with the largest increases in projected 2024 WAR since my original projections and dig a little into what changed for each player. Sometimes it’s performance, sometimes it’s health, sometimes it’s a change in position. Let’s jump straight into the names, since I assume everyone reading this knows that ZiPS isn’t a cheeseburger or a hoodie. Read the rest of this entry »
As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.
For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2024-2028, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2028 (if the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2022 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.
One note on the rankings: Particularly at the bottom of the list, there isn’t a lot of room between the players. The ordinal rankings clearly matter, and we put them there for a reason, but there isn’t much of a gap between, say, the 39th-ranked player and the 60th. The magnitude of the differences in this part of the list is quite small. Several of the folks I talked to might prefer a player in the honorable mentions section to one on the back end of the list, or vice versa. I think the broad strokes are correct, and this is my opinion of the best order, but with so many players carrying roughly equivalent value, disagreements abounded.
With that out of the way, let’s get to the next batch of players.
I’ll be honest up front: This is one where my initial evaluation differed from the crowd, and I think the crowd is right. I had Brown right on the fringe of the top 50, but everyone really loves his fastball shape, and that’s a big tiebreaker in pitching evaluation these days. It doesn’t hurt that his slider consistently tops 90 mph, and he even has a huge 12-6 curveball to complete the package. Some pitchers need to maximize their best pitch to excel; Brown has the luxury of multiple standout options, which broadens his path to success. He could turn into a fastball-slider monster in the Justin Verlander mold (hey, have you guys heard he throws like Verlander?), or emphasize his two breaking balls like Clayton Kershaw.
Obviously, Brown isn’t on that level just yet. He almost certainly won’t ever reach that level. Compare him to Bryce Miller, someone I’d previously grouped him with, though, and you can see what I mean. If Miller’s good, it will be because of his fastball. If that fastball isn’t quite up to snuff, it won’t work. Having two ways to succeed means Brown’s floor is higher than you might think; he’d need to experience multiple points of failure before things went irreparably wrong, and that counts for a lot when we’re talking about this many years of team control.
If Brown is even just an average pitcher – and he’s been much better than that this year – he’s valuable for the sheer length of time he’ll be around. The combination of length and a low chance of failure resonates with me. One last point in his favor? He’s been consistently improving his greatest weakness — command — since reaching the big leagues. I’m not sure what Brown will look like as a finished product, but I feel good about the fact that he’ll be a solid pitcher one way or another.
I put Kirk 39th because “confused shrug” isn’t a valid ranking. He looked like a great hitter who needed to figure out how to play defense last year, but he’s gone ice cold offensively in 2023, and the way it’s happening has to worry the Blue Jays. He’s always hit too many grounders, but the power he got to despite that batted ball mix has vanished. His thump is more gap-to-gap than over-the-wall, so a step down leaves him blooping and grounding his way to a desultory offensive line.
Why not lop him off the list entirely, then? For someone who had a lot of DH risk as a minor leaguer, Kirk has adapted to the rigors of major league catching pretty well. He’s a solid blocker and an average thrower, neither of which looked likely two years ago. He also displays good receiving instincts. Alejandro Kirk, above-average defender? I still don’t quite believe it, but it seems like more of a possibility than I thought it was a year ago.
Meanwhile, I don’t know what weird malaise he’s working through offensively, but he hit so much in the minors and in previous major league seasons that I don’t mind betting on a rebound. He’s now displayed the capability to hit and field a premium position. That’s a rare combo, and he’s under team control for so long still that this is as low as I could put Kirk on the list, awful season and all.
Neto is the player I feel least sure of on this entire list. The reason is likely obvious: He has almost no track record to speak of. He was the Angels’ first pick in the 2022 draft and already has more major league plate appearances than minor league plate appearances. That makes for a lot of uncertainty about whether he’s as good as he’s looked so far this year, and as you can see, ZiPS isn’t quite bought in yet.
Ultimately, though, both scouts and defensive evaluation systems think Neto is a solid shortstop, and that goes a long way towards making me comfortable. He hit well in his minor league stopover, and his underlying statistics look right at home in the majors. He has roughly average raw power, but a good sense of the strike zone makes his in-game output better than you might expect. I think he’ll post average or better walk rates in the long run, though likely with his fair share of strikeouts as well.
That might not sound exciting, but an average bat/average glove shortstop is something like a three-win player annually. Neto won’t hit free agency until after the 2029 season; that’s a lot of production even if he doesn’t turn into a perennial All-Star. I dropped him down a bit just because of the short track record and associated risk of becoming a bust, but multiple people I talked to would have grouped him up with Matt McLain and Anthony Volpe, who (spoiler alert) appear higher on this list.
Ah, last year’s Zach Neto. That’s not a perfect comparison – Peña is older, for one thing – but Peña burst onto the scene last year as a plus fielder who could hit a little. Like I mentioned, a huge chunk of team control for a player who can handle shortstop without embarrassing himself offensively is a combination that will always be in demand. And I think Peña is a lot better than unembarrassing defensively, even if Statcast is down on his 2023 performance so far.
In Peña’s case, “can he hit” is still an open question. He’s tremendously aggressive at the plate, which leads to bad swings and weak contact. He’s been strangely inept against fastballs this year, a trend I don’t think will continue, but he needs to do damage on them to make up for all those flailing swings at breaking balls below the zone.
If you told me that Peña was guaranteed to post an exactly average batting line, this is where I’d place him on the list. In the real world, where nothing is set in stone, the upside case (he posts a 120 wRC+, making him incredible) doesn’t feel particularly likely, but it’s still in play. The downside case (he posts an 80 wRC+, making him uninteresting) is definitely real, and his approach exacerbates its likelihood. He’s a good reminder to pump the brakes just a little when a rookie bursts onto the scene – but he’s also a reminder that good shortstops are valuable even when they’re slumping.
I love a shiny prospect as much as the next analyst. Witt fits that bill; he has game-breaking speed and power at a premium defensive position. He hit 20 bombs and stole 30 bags last year, and he might go 20/40 or even 30/50 this year. He’s a fantasy beast, no doubt – but I’m starting to wonder whether those drool-worthy counting statistics will translate into real-world value.
You’d like to pair Witt’s blazing baserunning skills with a high OBP, but that doesn’t seem likely given his career so far. He swings a lot and makes only average contact, which means he doesn’t walk much but still strikes out fairly often. And his homers come from an aerially-oriented approach, so it’s not like he can easily boost his power by lifting and pulling more frequently.
ZiPS, not to mention a few of the human evaluators I spoke to, thinks I’m too low on Witt and maybe I am. His defense grades out much better this year, and it always made sense that someone with his natural gifts would be a capable shortstop. But he was an absolute butcher in 2022 and I think a responsible estimate of his future defense would wind up somewhere south of average. If he’s an asset in the field, it takes a lot of pressure off of his hit-or-miss offense.
At the end of the day, most of the arguments for putting Witt higher on this list come down to things he hasn’t done yet. The tools are all there. Now we just need to see it for more than a few hot weeks at a time. I think there’s a decent chance of Witt making me look foolish in a year, but after 1,000 plate appearances of average hitting, I need to see a little more.
One concept that got a lot of play, both in my head while I made this list and in my conversations about it as I gathered feedback, is what I like to call the first base dead zone. It works like this: If you’re a true talent 140 wRC+ hitter at first base, you’re a franchise cornerstone. Drop that mark to 120, though, and you’re a role player. Christian Walker, Josh Naylor, Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rizzo — none of those guys really get your blood pumping, do they? They’ve all put up a wRC+ between 120 and 125 combined across 2022 and 2023.
The margin is slim; Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, and Paul Goldschmidt are stars. That’s why I had Vlad ninth on this list last year, and why he’s been a fixture towards the top since he debuted in the majors. His 2021 season and his status as a once-in-a-decade prospect cast long shadows. If you think he’s basically a toned-down version of 2021, this is too low.
Maybe he is, but he hasn’t showed that world-conquering form recently. Since the start of the 2022 season, he’s barely inside the top 10 for wRC+ among qualified first basemen. He’s not going to be around forever; he’ll hit free agency after the 2025 season. He’s not a huge bargain, either; he’s making $14.5 million in arbitration this year, and that’s only going to go up. He also has nowhere to hide defensively; when he has a down offensive stretch, there’s nothing to cushion it.
His Statcast numbers this year are great. He’s a star. I just don’t believe that teams are lining up to trade for a first baseman whose bat is anything less than generational. There are only two players with similar defensive value to Vladito higher on this list and their bats are clearly superior. I’m not saying he isn’t capable of those heights, but he’s not achieving them at the moment, and this year is a meaningful chunk of his remaining team control.
It’s kind of wild looking at Arozarena’s career batting numbers. He’s been really good in each of the last three years, and that excludes his white-hot 2020 postseason. In 2023, he’s added OBP to the mix, walking more without sacrificing his fastball-destroying aggression. He’s a top-25 hitter in baseball, maybe better than that, and the track record is too long to ignore at this point.
Case in point: compare his ZiPS projections to Guerrero’s. They’re essentially the same, but Arozarena comes with an extra year of team control and his salary will be meaningfully lower. Sure, he’s older, but you’re not signing him for 10 years; a team trading for him would get the tail end of his peak.
That first base dead zone I mentioned earlier? I think ability to play a passable left field keeps him clear of it. For now, at least, his offense does too. I’m sure this will be an unpopular ranking (Arozarena’s place at the bottom of last year’s list is perhaps the most derided trade value inclusion since I’ve worked at FanGraphs), but let me put it this way: No one I talked to thought he was a reach. If you’re thinking this is just another case of the Rays squeezing everything they can out of a limited skill set, you may not have looked at Arozarena’s on-field production enough.
Gilbert is in a different tier, value-wise, than everyone who came before him. I guess that means there are 33 no-doubt ultra-valuable players in baseball this year. The guys ranked 34th to 60th are kind of a crapshoot, and anyone who says they have the perfect order for those players is kidding themselves, me included. Now, though, we’re getting to the good stuff.
Controllable pitching is really valuable. Good controllable pitching? Now we’re cooking with gas. Gilbert is working on his third straight season of a mid-3.00s FIP, and he’s durable to boot. I’m not sure he’ll ever turn into a fire-breathing monster of an ace, but there’s at least a chance of it. He’s throwing a new hard slider and a new splitter this year, and they both look better than his previous set of secondaries. He’s always had great command and a solid fastball; if the whole package gels, look out.
Of course, the whole package doesn’t have to gel for Gilbert to be worth it. He’s going to be around for a long time, for not very much money, and everything in his track record suggests that he’ll be a valuable contributor that whole time. Players like this don’t come along every day, and when they do, teams generally clutch them like pearls.
As DJ Khaled would say, another one. Seattle has a lot of good pitchers who will be around for a while, though Castillo doesn’t come at the same bargain rates as Gilbert. The upside, though? I have little doubt that Castillo will deliver All-Star level value for as long as he’s healthy. He’s remarkably consistent, tracking for 3.5-4.5 WAR in each of the past five years. He’s durable. And he’s not doing it with smoke and mirrors; he has multiple plus secondaries and his fastball misses bats at an outrageous rate.
Will Castillo ever win a Cy Young? I doubt it. Will he finish as a top-30 pitcher in baseball every healthy year of his contract? I think so. When you look at what teams are willing to pay for reliable starters, Castillo’s value stands out even more. He’s making Chris Bassitt money, upscale Taijuan Walker money, slightly-more-than-Jameson Taillon money. He’s miles better than those guys.
I flipped Castillo and Gilbert back and forth while constructing these rankings, and I think that a lot of the arguments in favor of one also accrue to the other. In the end, I put Castillo ahead even though he’ll almost certainly generate fewer WAR per dollar of salary. Surplus value is nice, and I obviously used it as an input, but I just think Castillo is better by enough to justify the higher salary. It’s close (and it’s also academic — Seattle isn’t trading either of them), but if you’re wondering how I decided to order these two, there’s your answer.
One quick note: It’s not a perfect comp, but Castillo got traded last deadline for a big return. He’s more valuable than that now, presumably; his contract compares favorably to pitchers of his skill level and it’ll keep him in the same uniform for quite a while without being long enough to turn into an albatross. Players on this list mostly don’t get traded, but he’s a case where we have real-world evidence of what he’s worth.
A trade value stalwart, Albies signed a ludicrously under-market extension early in his career and has looked like a bargain for the Braves ever since. We’re finally getting towards the end of that contract, and it’s of course been a huge value, just as predicted. No one’s disputing that. The question now is to what degree the tail end will pay off for Atlanta, not whether it will.
Above-average players don’t grow on trees. Albies is a perfect example of an above-average player. He’s been worth 3.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances over the course of his career. Starting in 2020, he’s been worth 3.3 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He can hit a little bit. He can field a little bit. He runs the bases well.
At the end of the day, I feel pretty comfortable about what I’m getting from Albies. He won’t be the best player on a good team, but he’ll be a valuable contributor and save you some money to sign a stud to play alongside him. Stars are awesome — everyone wants stars! — but this next tier down, the guys who are always good and sometimes spike All-Star seasons, is also in high demand, particularly if the price is right.
An optimist might look at Albies’s 2023 statline and say that he’s never put up a higher wRC+ than he has this season. Better times are coming! A pessimist might point out that a 119 wRC+ isn’t an especially great number for a career best, and that he turned in a clunker last year. The truth is that his last two seasons work out to basically his career line. This is just what you’re going to get with Albies, and it’s a pretty nice package on the whole.
Shohei Ohtani is a unicorn. No player in 20th- or 21st-century AL/NL history, not even Babe Ruth in his last two seasons with the Red Sox (1918–19), has been able to sustain regular duty in both a rotation and a lineup over a full season, let alone excel at both endeavors. At this writing, the 29-year-old superstar leads the majors in homers (34), slugging percentage (.665), and wRC+ (179), and he’s got the AL’s second-best strikeout rate (32.2%) and lowest batting average against (.191). He currently ranks among the AL’s top 10 in Baseball Reference’s position player WAR (4.0, fourth) and pitching WAR (2.5, ninth), and just over a full win ahead of Ronald Acuña Jr. for the major league lead in combined WAR. Over the past two and a half seasons, he’s been worth 25.0 WAR, 5.9 more than the top position player, Aaron Judge.
Some day, Hall of Fame voters will have to reckon with Ohtani. If he reaches the kind of career numbers that Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system forecast for him over the winter — 1,809 hits, 404 homers, 124 OPS+, 158 wins, 2,329 strikeouts, 122 ERA+, and 72.1 WAR — the decision will be a no-brainer. I’m already of the mind that if he gets to his 10th season (2027) and is still doing double duty, he’ll have my vote when he lands on the ballot regardless of what the numbers say, because what he’s doing is so utterly remarkable. WAR and JAWS weren’t really built to handle a case like his, and not only because his ability to save his team a roster spot is probably worth some uncounted fraction of a win per year, too. Read the rest of this entry »
As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.
For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2024-2028, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2028 (if the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2022 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.
One note on the rankings: Particularly at the bottom of the list, there isn’t a lot of room between the players. The ordinal rankings clearly matter, and we put them there for a reason, but there isn’t much of a gap between, say, the 39th-ranked player and the 60th. The magnitude of the differences in this part of the list is quite small. Several of the folks I talked to might prefer a player in the honorable mentions section to one on the back end of the list, or vice versa. I think the broad strokes are correct, and this is my opinion of the best order, but with so many players carrying roughly equivalent value, disagreements abounded.
I’m sorry in advance. That guy you like, your favorite young star on your favorite team? I ranked him too low. I missed something, I’m biased, I just don’t know enough about baseball. Have I even been to a game? Do I understand what it takes to win? That guy’s a stud and I’m treating him like a chump. And have you seen the terrible players I put above him? Shocking!
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, welcome to the 2023 edition of our annual Trade Value Series. Starting today and continuing all week, we’ll release our list, taking player performance, age, and contract into account. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all run this show in years past; this is my second year at the helm.
Luckily for you (and those poor players I’ve disrespected), I didn’t have to do this on my own; I got an absolute ton of help. First, I gathered every possible input I could think of: age, contract status, measures of current production, estimates of future production, Statcast data, pitch-level modeling, Zodiac sign, and positional scarcity. From there, I got feedback from the rest of the FanGraphs staff (special thanks here to Dan Szymborski for his ZiPS assistance and Meg Rowley for being a frequent sounding board as I hemmed and hawed over the list in progress) to form a rough ranking. Then I got some feedback from external sources to further hone in on a final order. The input from all those sources was useful and much appreciated, but make no mistake, this is my list. Read the rest of this entry »
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Jay Jaffe
