The Postseason Pitching/Hitting Divide Might Be Widening

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Ah, the playoffs. The smell of fall in the air, the sight of towel waving and packed stadiums across the country, and the endless stream of pontification on social media. Are the Rays just not built for the postseason due to a lack of star power? Have the Dodgers been playoff slouches because they’re too dependent on their stars? Do the Astros know something about how Martín Maldonado manages a pitching staff that we don’t? Do we know more about how to manage a pitching staff than John Schneider? The list goes on.

Especially with the new opportunities to weigh in given the expanded playoff structure, it’s been harder than ever to hone in on ideas worth pondering, let alone hypotheses that are falsifiable. But the other day, a xweet from MLB Network researcher Jessica Brand caught my eye:

Thanks to our handy new postseason leaderboards, this was indeed an interesting assertion that I could test. I limited my sample to hurlers who not only tossed at least 50 frames in the playoffs, but who also managed 500 innings in the regular season. There were 142 pitchers who met these criteria, and they averaged an ERA three tenths of a run lower in the playoffs. Per a paired-samples t-test, this result was statistically significant. Read the rest of this entry »


After a Rough Season, José Abreu Came Up Huge in the Division Series

Jose Abreu
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

José Abreu did not have a good season. Signed to a three-year deal by the Astros last November, the 36-year-old first baseman turned in the worst campaign of his 10-year major league career, and even after digging out of a deep early-season slump, he ended up as the least valuable regular at his position. Even so, Abreu has been able to turn the page since the start of the playoffs, and his three home runs against the Twins were a major reason the Astros won the Division Series.

Abreu went just 1-for-7 in the first two games against Minnesota, though his lone hit, a fifth-inning single off Kenta Maeda in Game 1, drove in Houston’s fourth run in what ended up as a 6–4 victory. His three-run first-inning homer to left field off Sonny Gray — a monster shot estimated at 442 feet — broke Game 3 open, turning a 1–0 lead into a 4–0 lead before Astros starter Cristian Javier even threw a pitch; it was probably the turning point of the series. For good measure, Abreu capped the scoring in the 9–1 rout with a two-run homer into the upper deck in left center off Bailey Ober in the ninth inning, this one estimated at 440 feet. On Wednesday night, he struck again, clubbing a 424-foot opposite-field two-run homer off Caleb Thielbar in the fourth inning of a 1–1 game. The Astros didn’t score again but hung on for a series-clinching 3–2 victory. Read the rest of this entry »


Phil Maton Revisits Spin (and Comes to Terms With Cut)

Phil Maton
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Phil Maton can spin a baseball. His four-seamer averaged 2,563 rpm this season, and his signature curveball was an even-more-rotational 3,154. These weren’t new developments. The 30-year-old Houston Astros reliever has long been known for that attribute, with a July 2017 interview with the then-San Diego Padres rookie having served as its first detailed mention here at FanGraphs.

He’s also had a career-best year. In 68 regular-season appearances out of the Houston bullpen, Maton augmented his 4–3 record and one save with a 3.00 ERA, a 3.74 FIP, 74 strikeouts, and just 49 hits allowed in 66 innings. Moreover, October has once again been his friend. Thanks to a pair of scoreless outings in the ALDS, the righty boasts a 1.04 ERA over 16 career playoff appearances.

Maton revisited the importance of spin and discussed a meaningful change to the movement profile of his fastball when the Astros visited Fenway Park at the end of August.

———

David Laurila: Your spin rate was the primary topic when we first spoke six years ago. Now pure spin isn’t considered nearly as important. Do you agree?

Phil Maton: “I think that’s right. Over the years, organizations have figured out that it doesn’t tell the whole picture. There are guys with big breaking balls and hoppy heaters who don’t spin the ball particularly well. That’s where things like spin efficiencies come into play. We’ve identified guys where it’s the entry angle. There are so many different factors in what creates ‘a good pitch.’ Back in 2017, when the spin-rate phase was going on, everyone thought that was the answer. It’s much more complex than that.” Read the rest of this entry »


The ALCS is Baseball’s First Postseason Battle of Texas

Jose Altuve Jonah Heim
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

I’m always a fan of a playoff series that we haven’t seen before, and oddly, the Astros and Rangers have never faced off in the postseason before. But we’ll finally get that battle for Texas supremacy this year in the ALCS, after the Astros shut down the Twins to win in four and the Rangers swept the Orioles and sent them back home for the peak of the steamed crab season. For this championship series, we also get a team without an obvious claim to superiority over the 2023 season, as both tied for the division at 90–72, leading to an unsatisfying Game 163-less conclusion based on head-to-head records.

Houston and Texas having never faced off in the postseason is one of those little accidents of history. The Senators/Rangers took until 1996 to make the playoffs for the very first time, and the Astros only moved to the AL before the 2013 season. Despite playing in the same league, the two franchises haven’t really had their periods of success overlap; 2023 is just the second season in baseball history in which the Astros and Rangers won 90 games in the same season, the only other time being in 1999 (when both teams lost in their respective divisional series). Read the rest of this entry »


ALDS Managerial Report Card: Brandon Hyde

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

As I’ve done for the past few years, I’m going to be grading each eliminated postseason manager on their decision-making. We spend the year mostly ignoring managers’ on-field contributions, because to be honest, they’re pretty small. Using the wrong reliever in the eighth inning just doesn’t feel that bad on June 22; there are so many more games still coming, and the regular season is more about managing the grind than getting every possible edge every day. The playoffs aren’t like that; with so few games to separate wheat from chaff, every last ounce of win probability matters, and managers make personnel decisions accordingly. What better time to grade them?

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things – getting team buy-in for new strategies and unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable – but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Evan Carter and the entire Diamondbacks roster have been great too. Forget trusting your veterans – the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Bryce Harper is important because he’s a great player, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process. I’ve already covered the losing managers of the Wild Card round. Today, it’s Brandon Hyde’s turn. Read the rest of this entry »


If At First You Don’t Succeed, Try, Try Again: Turner, Castellanos Mash Phillies Into NLCS

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

PHILADELPHIA — You know what they say about first impressions, right? Well forget it. It’s nonsense.

The Phillies have run back last season’s NLDS result: a 3-1 victory over the rival Atlanta Braves, the no. 1 seed in the National League bracket. This time out was a little more acrimonious than the last, at times a little more touch-and-go, as a cavalcade of pitchers only barely kept the cap on the violently fizzing soda bottle that is Atlanta’s offense.

But with Braves ace Spencer Strider standing between the Phillies and a return to the NLCS, two players who were on the verge of being run out of town in the past 12 months — Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner — put the team on their backs. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2071: Hello Randomness, My Old Friend

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Diamondbacks’ victory and the Dodgers’ defeat, more musings on playoff randomness, Bryce Harper, Orlando Arcia, and the silliest sports/sports-media controversy of the year, the Astros advancing to the ALCS again (at the Twins’ expense), the all-Texas ALCS, and more.

Audio intro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Meg on NLDS Game 3
Link to Jay on the Dodgers
Link to Magic Johnson tweet
Link to Lynn quote about homers
Link to McCullough on Kershaw
Link to Facebook thread on Kershaw
Link to worst team postseason SP
Link to Jake’s article
Link to Chelsea’s thread
Link to d’Arnaud clip
Link to Arcia clip
Link to Clemens on Pressly
Link to Ben on the Astros
Link to story on Rangers and Creed
Link to “Marlins Will Soar”

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Ryan Pressly Pulls the String

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

You all know how playoff relief pitchers work these days. A starter comes out, perhaps earlier than he would in the regular season, and then the parade starts. A 23-year-old who throws 99 with a mind-bending slider. A former starter who pops 100 with ease. A crafty lefty is next, an embarrassment to his peers thanks to a mere 97-mph radar gun reading. Then it’s time for the big cheese, the bullpen anchor; he throws 100 as well, only with a secondary pitch that would get him convicted of witchcraft in an earlier era.

That’s just the way baseball has gone in recent years. Pitcher training is better than ever and velocity misses bats, so the trend is inexorable. In 2014, the average fastball thrown by a reliever in the playoffs checked in at 94.1 mph. In 2022, it hit 95.9 mph. In the not-so-distant future, it will surely top 96. If you can build the entire bullpen out of fireballers, why not do it?

It feels strange to call Ryan Pressly a junkballer. He sits 94-95 mph with a backspinning four-seamer. He threw a pitch 98 mph this season. He’s lived up near 100 at various points in his 11-year major league career. But in modern baseball, he’s downright quaint, a four-pitch reliever who doesn’t rely on gamebreaking velocity. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting Cleveland Guardians – Multiple Openings

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Minor League Pitching Coach
Sport Science Analyst


Minor League Pitching Coach

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians are sourcing applicants for potential future Minor League Pitching Coach openings in the Player Development Department. Though the team does not have any current openings, we are looking to get to know potential candidates throughout the calendar year in order to (1) begin to vet potential candidates at times more conducive to their schedules; and (2) enable us to move forward more quickly through the hiring process if and when relevant openings do develop. The ideal candidate will possess a passion for player and personal growth, experience integrating multiple information sources to create and implement development plans, and a thorough understanding of skill acquisition principles. Excellent applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and a drive to learn new concepts to problem solve. First and foremost, we are looking for great people!

We are committed to creating an equitable interview process that recognizes the unique identities of all applicants and allows candidates to bring their best selves forward. If you are more comfortable with submitting your materials (i.e., resume, other documents) in Spanish, please feel free to do so.

If you meet some of the qualifications above, we encourage you to apply or to reach out for more information. We know that people from historically marginalized groups – including people of color, women, people from working class backgrounds, and people who identify as LGBTQ – may feel less likely to apply, even though they are qualified, unless they meet every requirement for a job. Therefore, we encourage you to reach out if you have questions about the role or your qualifications. We are happy to help you feel ready to apply!

Essential Responsibilities and Duties

  • Integrate objective information into a detailed and comprehensive player development plan. 
  • Create effective training environments based off individual player plans. 
  • Collaborate with Physical domains to effectively plan, implement, and monitor a holistic player development plan. 
  • Utilize internal tools, resources, and analytics to assess and adjust player plans. 
  • Communicate development plans and progress with players and Player Development staff and Front Office throughout the year.
  • Assist field staff with normal daily operations when necessary. 

Requirements

  • Minimum of two years related experience and/or training required. Previous experience with a Major or Minor League Baseball organization or collegiate baseball program is a plus.
  • Candidate is willing to potentially work at our development complex in Arizona year-round. 
  • Ability to effectively communicate with a wide range of people and backgrounds.
  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English proficiently in all communications.
  • Interest in personal and professional development with a desire to be involved in internal continuing education opportunities. 
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office including Teams, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Office, and Outlook. 

Preferred Experience
We are looking for a variety of skill sets. If you have demonstrated experience with any of the following, you may be who we are looking for to join our team.

  • Fluency in Spanish is a plus but not required.
  • Proficiency in SQL is a plus but not required.
  • Experience working with Trackman, Edgertronic cameras, biomechanics data, and workload monitoring data. 
  • Strength & conditioning experience is a plus but not required.

Standard Requirements

  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times. 
  • Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality. 
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Sport Science Analyst

Primary Purpose
Working as part of the Sport Science team and the relevant affiliate performance teams, this role will collect and provide key physical performance information to athletes, coaches, and front office personnel. The Applied Sport Science Analyst will be providing support to fundamental and physical performance staff and help facilitate the development of world-class sport science practices within the Cleveland Guardians organization.

Core Responsibilities / Duties

  • Physical Assessment and Analysis:
    • Ensure regular valid and reliable physical assessments are conducted on all players.
    • Provide analysis of assessment data to support physical goal creation and goal progress processes.
  • Workload Monitoring:
    • Ensure the collection of objective and subjective workload and readiness information to inform athlete management processes.
    • Provide analysis of daily workload information to support athlete management decisions.
  • S&C Programming Support:
    • Support S&C staff to ensure programs are evidence-based and aligned with physical goals with a high degree of adherence.
  • Injury Monitoring:
    • Report on injury prevalence to highlight injury trends, and to develop and evaluate injury prevention strategies.
  • Education:
    • Be current with the scientific literature through a community of learners, contribute to the education of players and staff on key performance and sport science concepts and initiatives in alignment with organizational philosophies.
  • Data Visualization:
    • Assist in the development of data visualizations across transparent platforms that service players, coaches, performance staff, and front-office personnel.
  • Other duties as assigned.

Education & Experience Requirements and Preference

  • Education & Experience:
    • Bachelor’s degree in Exercise Physiology or Sport Science (or related field)
    • Master’s Degree in Exercise Physiology or Sport Science (or related field) preferred.
    • Minimum 2 years of experience as an S&C Coach / Sport Scientist within a professional, private, or collegiate program.
    • National Certification as a registered sport scientist (NSCA, ESSA, BASES) preferred.
    • Specialized knowledge across physiology, strength science, motor control, biomechanics, performance analysis, research methods and evidence-based practice and how to apply these disciplines to developing baseball athletes.
  • Job Requirements:
    • Highly organized with a growth mindset and an aptitude for strategic thinking
    • Passion: Demonstrate a clear passion for the game, teammates, and the organization.
    • Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
    • Working knowledge of physical performance data and peer-reviewed research.
    • Proficiency with Microsoft Office.
    • Experience with R, SQL, Power BI and other statistical software preferred

Standard Requirements

  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Reads, speaks, comprehends, and communicates English effectively in all communications.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with teammates across departments.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
  • Ability to work with diverse populations and have a demonstrated commitment to social justice.
  • Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
  • Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
  • Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes at least 25 lbs.

The Cleveland Guardians are committed to developing and maintaining an environment that embraces all forms of diversity to enrich our core values, enhance our competitive position, strengthen our impact within our community, and foster a greater sense of belonging for our employees.

In this spirit, we know studies have shown that people from historically underserved groups – including women and people of color – are less likely to apply for jobs unless they believe they meet every one of the qualifications as described in a job description. We are most interested in finding the best candidate for the job and understand that candidate may bring certain skills and experiences to the role that are not listed above, but that would add tremendous value to our organization. We would encourage you to apply, even if you don’t believe you meet every one of our qualifications described.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.


Dodgers Take Another Early Exit From the Postseason Tournament

Lance Lynn
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t take deep analysis to realize that if your starting pitchers combine to allow 13 runs and record 14 outs, your chances of winning a short series aren’t very good. Likewise if the two superstar MVP candidates atop your lineup go 1-for-21, your four 100-RBI guys combine to drive in one (1) run, and your entire team slugs .250. With numbers like that, it’s not too hard to explain the fate of the 2023 Dodgers, who were swept by the Diamondbacks in the Division Series that concluded on Wednesday night at Chase Field. Despite a slow start to their season and considerable upheaval in their rotation, the Dodgers won 100 games and cruised to their 10th division title in 11 years, but for the third year in a row, they were ousted by a team that finished the regular season miles behind them.

Indeed, the Dodgers’ exit from the past three postseasons accounts for three of the largest differentials in winning percentage between winner and loser in major league history:

Biggest Postseason Upsets by Winning Percentage Differential
Year Series Winner Win% Loser Win% Dif
1906 World Series White Sox .616 Cubs .763 -.147
2022 NL Division Series Padres .549 Dodgers .685 -.136
2001 AL Championship Series Yankees .594 Mariner .716 -.122
2021 NL Championship Series Braves .547 Dodgers .654 -.107
1973 NL Championship Series Mets .509 Reds .611 -.102
2023 NL Division Series Diamondbacks .519 Dodgers .617 -.099
1954 World Series Giants .630 Cleveland .721 -.091
2019 World Series Nationals .574 Astros .660 -.086
2022 NL Division Series Phillies .537 Braves .623 -.086
2008 NL Division Series Dodgers .519 Cubs .602 -.084
SOURCE: https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-upsets-in-mlb-postseason-history
Shortened seasons not included.

Note the increasing frequency with which such upsets have happened, owing to the continued expansion of the postseason. When the two pennant winners went straight to the World Series, it was less likely their records would differ so greatly unless one won at least 70% of its games. And where we once had one postseason series per year, now we have 11, creating so many more opportunities for what look to be mismatches — except that in a short series, anything can happen, a fact we’ve known for well over a century. Just ask Tinker, Evers, and Chance about the 1906 White Sox, the Hitless Wonders who pantsed their crosstown rivals despite the Cubs having the highest single-season winning percentage in AL/NL history. Read the rest of this entry »