There are only a few weeks until the 2023 amateur draft, and I’ve done a top-to-bottom refresh and expansion of my draft prospect rankings, which you can see on The Board. The goal of the draft rankings is to evaluate and rank as many of the players who are talented enough to hop onto the main section of the pro prospect lists as possible, so they can be ported over to the pro side of The Board as soon as they’re drafted. Players for whom that is true tend to start to peter out in rounds four and five of the draft as bonus slot amounts dip below $500,000. Overslot guys are obvious exceptions. By the seventh round, we’re mostly talking about org guys who are drafted to make a team’s bonus pool puzzle fit together, or players who need significant development to truly be considered prospects.

That means ranking about 125 players. I currently have about that many players on the list, hard ranked through 55, while the prospects below that are bucketed by their demographic. The ordinal rankings will trickle down the list over the next few weeks, more names may be added, and I still have some blurbs and tool grades to fill in, but these 125 names are the lion’s share of the list. Next week’s Combine, as well as the private, individual workouts that take place over the next few weeks and the information that emerges from team meetings, will likely have an impact on the final draft day version of the list. The Combine especially will illuminate some players who will help fill out the bottom of the rankings, and of course it’s inevitable that a few players drafted during the first half of Day Two will need to be added as they’re selected. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Shohei Ohtani’s latest exploits and career-best WAR pace, the Angels’ playoff hopes, Corbin Carroll’s physique, and Mickey Moniak’s fluky-but-fun hot streak, then (20:55) answer listener emails about how big a scandal it would be if Ohtani turned out to be two twins, when managers would choose to take in-game mulligans, and which stat should replace errors in the traditional line score, followed by a Meet a Major Leaguer segment (54:00) featuring Keaton Winn and Ricky Karcher (as well as Joe Jacques and Stan Musial), Stat Blasts (1:18:45) about Zack Greinke and the widest pitch-speed spreads and Jo Adell and the players with the biggest career gaps between their Triple-A and MLB production, plus a Past Blast (1:39:30) from 2021.

Audio intro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Ohtani’s oppo homers
Link to Ohtani oppo graphic
Link to Ohtani’s Statcast record
Link to story on Ohtani’s series
Link to Ohtani’s HR lead
Link to Blum’s bat tweet
Link to Ohtani’s streak
Link to Neil Paine on Ohtani
Link to Ohtani sweepers by start
Link to Ohtani sweepers vs. LHB
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Angels wRC+ leaders
Link to The Athletic on Moniak
Link to minor league chase leaders
Link to MLB swing-rate leaders
Link to article on Carroll
Link to Dan Bern’s Ohtani song
Link to Canseco conspiracy
Link to Atlantic League EW episode
Link to Craig/Báez play
Link to Minor’s 200th strikeout story
Link to other Ben on line scores
Link to modern box score story
Link to EW emails database
Link to list of saves in debuts
Link to MLB.com on Winn’s debut
Link to McCovey Chronicles on Winn
Link to story on Giants bullpen WAR
Link to toothpaste/Sriracha tweet
Link to Karcher interview
Link to Karcher pitch plot
Link to Karcher article 1
Link to Karcher article 2
Link to Karcher article 3
Link to Karcher article 4
Link to Jacques call-up article 1
Link to Jacques call-up article 2
Link to Jacques debut play
Link to Jacques interview
Link to Jacques other interview
Link to Musial/Jacques query
Link to Musial story
Link to 2023 new debuts
Link to Topps Now cards
Link to pitch-speed-spread leaders
Link to new Greinke stories article
Link to EW episode on Greinke stories
Link to active-pitcher spreads
Link to Simon pitch spreads
Link to Padilla pitch spreads
Link to consecutive-pitches Stat Blast
Link to Lucas Apostoleris on Twitter
Link to Triple-A/MLB gaps spreadsheet
Link to Triple-A/MLB hypothetical email
Link to intra-season AAA/MLB gap Blast
Link to Ben on the majors/minors gap
Link to Kenny Jackelen on Twitter
Link to Home Run Challenge press release
Link to Home Run Challenge leaderboard
Link to donate to Home Run Challenge
Link to 2021 Past Blast source
Link to Ben on moving the mound
Link to Ben/Rob on the results
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack

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The context behind the phrase “pitch tipping” has grown richer every year. Sure, the basic principle still holds: a pitcher is “tipping” when they’re providing some indication of their upcoming offerings. It’s just that opponents can glean such “tips” through a continuously expanding network of avenues. Previously, the only [clears throat] legal way to do so was when a second-base runner or base coach picked up on a catcher’s signs, or a starting pitcher’s tendency to wind up differently for a fastball or a breaking ball. Then, with the advent of PITCHf/x and later Trackman and Hawkeye, analysts and machine learning algorithms could search for tips to cue their hitters — when Pitcher A throws from a higher release point, there’s usually a fastball coming; when he shortens up his stride, there will probably be a breaking ball.

Next, the Trajekt pitching robots made it so that not only could coaches convey these cues to their hitters, but they could demonstrate how to use them to their advantage in real time. Integrating near-perfect trajectory replication with video of each pitcher’s windup, a pitcher facsimile completes their follow through at a mobile slot — adjustable in three dimensions for different release points and extensions — from which a batting practice baseball is launched. Still, pitchers can make in-game adjustments and at least avoid falling prey to the Trajekt machine for one start at a time, and the use of PitchCom makes it harder for runners and coaches to become privy to signs in-game. Maybe all of that can at least spare the pitcher an inning?

Now, I’m not so sure. Last week, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci described team executives and coaches who are spending more time combatting their hurlers’ tipping than ever before. That’s because of markerless motion capture systems installed in as many as 15 big league ballparks. There are supposedly safeguards against using these KinaTrax systems for sign stealing, safeguards that dovetail with PitchCom’s effects, but the cameras go far beyond their intended purpose of preventing injury and sharpening up mechanics. Verducci describes an example, relayed to him from a front office executive: pitch grip influences which forearm muscles activate and how much they activate, even while the ball is still in the pitcher’s glove; once analysts or machine learning algorithms match each flexion pattern to a particular pitch type, that information goes straight to the dugout, and then to the hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

The A’s have spent most of this season as the laughingstocks of the majors. Stripped of their most talented players as ownership focused on sneaking out of Oakland, they carried a .207 winning percentage into June, putting them on pace to beat the 1962 Mets’ modern-day record of 120 losses. With their recent seven-game winning streak — remarkably timed to coincide with the Nevada state senate debating and finally approving a bill to build a stadium on the Las Vegas strip, all but sealing their fate in Oakland — they’ve edged above what we might call the Throneberry Line. All the while, the Royals, losers of nine straight and 12 out of their last 13, have actually slipped below them in terms of winning percentage, .265 (18–50) to .267 (19–52).

This actually isn’t the first time the Royals have had a worse record than the A’s this year; Oakland won its first and fourth games of the season, whereas Kansas City lost its first and started 1–6. It took until April 8 for the Royals (3–6) to move ahead of the A’s (2–6). Since then, the two teams have spent a few days with the same record and winning percentage — on April 21 (4–16, .200), April 24 (5–18, .217) and May 6 (8–26, .235) — but the Royals had never been worse than the A’s until this week:

Where the plight of the A’s has captured national attention, that of the Royals has largely evaded it. That’s largely because the team’s ownership isn’t in the process of trying to relocate the franchise, which isn’t to say it doesn’t want a new stadium. But entering Friday, Kansas City was in a virtual tie for the sixth-worst winning percentage of any team since 1901 and is playing at a pace that would produce a 43–119 record, which would tie the 2003 Tigers for the second-highest total of losses in a season, behind only the 1962 Mets’ 120. Even if the Royals can’t catch the Mets, they’ll have to play much better ball to avoid surpassing the franchise record of 106 losses, set in 2005. Read the rest of this entry »

Around this time a year ago, Julio Teheran left the Atlantic League’s Staten Island FerryHawks for the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana, a move that on the FerryHawks Instagram account described as the right-hander getting “one step closer back to Major League Baseball.” Those steps were many: over the next 12 months, Teheran would suit up for Staten Island, Tijuana, Sultanes de Monterrey in the Mexican League, Toros del Este in the Dominican Winter League, the San Diego Padres as a non-roster spring training invitee, Team Colombia in the World Baseball Classic, and the Padres’ Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. Seven teams (from four different countries) later, he got his MLB shot, signing in late May with a Brewers team that had already lost five starters — Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Ashby, Eric Lauer, Jason Alexander, and Wade Miley – to injuries. Milwaukee needed a healthy arm badly, and Teheran had been looking for just that kind of opportunity.

The Brewers couldn’t have expected much from Teheran, the way you can’t usually expect much from the most available pitcher on the day that you place a fifth starter on the injured list. He hadn’t thrown a major league pitch since April 2021 with the Tigers, when he allowed one run over five innings before hitting the IL with a shoulder strain the following week. Even his Triple-A stint in the spring had been a mixed bag in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

But Teheran has answered the call, allowing just four earned runs and averaging over six innings in his four starts for the Brewers, striking out 16 and walking just three with a 1.48 ERA, 3.52 FIP and 4.48 xFIP. Those final two stats suggest a few balls bouncing his way through these first four starts, and he’s not going to give up a single earned run each time out there. But the early returns are strong: opposing hitters have a .396 xSLG and .294 xwOBA against him, and both his barrel and hard-hit rates (on just 70 batted balls, mind you) are comfortably above league average. In his last start on Saturday, he fanned six A’s over 7.0 one-run innings, his longest big league outing in nearly four years. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another installment of Five Things, a look at some things that caught my eye in baseball this week. As usual, I’d like to thank Zach Lowe, whose NBA column inspired me to start this one. This week has a few more things I don’t like than usual, from young players with defensive issues to young players missing the season with injury. Don’t fret, though: there’s a heaping helping of good defense, and even some amusingly awful plays for comic relief. Let’s get right to it.

1. Abysmal Defense in Winning Efforts
It’s hard to overstate how poorly the Giants fared on defense last Sunday. They kicked things off by letting a popup fall between three defenders, and that was just the beginning. They let that run score in ignominious fashion:

There’s no sugarcoating it; that was ugly. This might be worse, though:

Read the rest of this entry »

I was supposed to write about Elly De La Cruz. The Reds’ 21-year-old rookie shortstop has taken the baseball world by storm during his two-week major league career. He’s as fast, as powerful as any player has ever been, and by all accounts, he is a star in the making. He could be the Julio Rodríguez of Oneil Cruzes.

Instead, Rob Manfred addressed the media after a scheduled owners’ meeting in New York. When the commissioner addresses the media, at best there’s a tense verbal interplay between reporters and a subject who’s either unable or unwilling to reveal the whole truth. It’s the Socratic equivalent of the dance-fighting from West Side Story. At worst, Dan Le Batard pulls Manfred’s pants down over the phone.

Manfred’s performance on Thursday was closer to the latter than the former. So now, instead of talking about a re-energized game being bolstered by an influx of prodigious young talent, we’re talking about Rob Manfred. That’s never a good place to start. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley review the most disappointing teams of 2023, ultimately anointing one team as the most disappointing and trying to identify which of the contenders for the “most disappointing” title is most likely to turn things around by the end of the season. Then (32:21) they discuss A’s fans’ reverse boycott, the seemingly sealed deal for the A’s to move to Las Vegas, the viability of Vegas as an MLB market, commissioner Rob Manfred’s maddening comments about all of the above, the 20th anniversary of Moneyball coinciding with the A’s ugly exit from Oakland, the legacy of the book, and more, plus a Past Blast (1:17:56) from 2020.

Audio intro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to preseason playoff odds
Link to preseason playoff odds changes
Link to Sheehan’s run differential tweet
Link to Sheehan on the Jays
Link to Petriello on Kiermaier
Link to A’s winning streak story
Link to MLBTR on Nevada votes
Link to FG on the reverse boycott
Link to The Athletic on the reverse boycott
Link to BP on the reverse boycott
Link to Manfred’s comments
Link to Oakland mayor’s response
Link to Tim Kawakami on Manfred
Link to Defector on Las Vegas
Link to Sheehan on Las Vegas
Link to Ken/Evan on front-office spending
Link to Sam Schultz thread
Link to Sam Schultz EW episode
Link to R.J. on front office unionization
Link to Ben/Rob’s 2016 study
Link to 2020 follow-up study
Link to Moneyball Act info
Link to info on Kotick cameo
Link to Michael Lewis on SABRcast
Link to 2020 Past Blast source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to MLBTR on the governor signing
Link to Manfred’s Pride Night comments
Link to SABRcast book episode
Link to Ringer-Verse gaming episode

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Luke Raley has been one of the best hitters on baseball’s best team this year. Playing primarily against right-handed pitchers, the 28-year-old left-handed-hitting outfielder has ten two-baggers and 11 home runs to go along with a .258/.343/.570 slash line and a 154 wRC+ in 172 plate appearances, An outstanding athlete for his size — he’s listed at 6-foot-4, 235 pounds — he’s legged out a pair of triples and stolen eight bases in ten attempts.

It wouldn’t be fair to say that he’s come out of nowhere, but the Hinckley, Ohio native did enter this season with a meager resume. Selected in the seventh round of the 2016 draft out of Division II Lake Erie College by the Los Angeles Dodgers, Raley had a .538 OPS in 72 plate appearances with the NL West club in 2021; he had a .584 OPS in the same number of plate appearances with the Rays last season. He was anything but a sure bet to make the Opening Day roster when he reported to spring training.

How has Raley, whom Tampa Bay acquired last March in exchange for Tanner Dodson, emerged as a productive hitter at the big league level in his ninth professional season? I sat down with him recently to find out.

———

David Laurila: How much of your success this year is a matter of opportunity, and how much is from improvements you’ve made to your game?

Luke Raley: “I think it’s a mixture of both, honestly. I kind of knew what I needed to work on going into the offseason, and I focused hard on them. And then, obviously, the more opportunities you have, the easier it is to get into a groove. So it was adjustments, and the opportunity certainly helped.”

Laurila: What were the needed adjustments?

Raley: “I needed to be more efficient to the ball, so I did everything I could to minimize movements at the plate. I brought my hands closer to my body, more into my launch position, instead of having them away from my body and then having to get them there. I also banged my leg kick and went to just a straight stride, which I felt could help me keep keep my head more still and recognize pitches earlier. Those are the two big ones, my hand placement and minimizing my leg movement.”

Laurila: Edgar Martinez mentioned having the hands close to the trigger position when I talked hitting with him a few years ago. It simplifies the action.

Raley: “That was kind of our thought process. It’s something that we even talked about last season, but we felt that was a big adjustment to make midseason. We decided that going into the offseason it was going to be my goal to kind of slot my hands in a better position. That would make me a little bit quicker to the ball.” Read the rest of this entry »

There are two predominant fastball types in the majors these days: the four-seamer and the sinker. The cutter usually gets categorized as a fastball too, and for some pitchers, like Corbin Burnes and Kenley Jansen, it certainly is one. Then again, most pitchers use their cutter as a secondary or tertiary offering, and the average cutter comes in at 89 mph; that’s closer to the average changeup than the average four-seamer. The cutter defies simple classification. Then there’s the split-finger fastball, which is nothing more than a misnomer. It’s an offspeed pitch, no doubt about it, and therefore “splitter” is the more widely accepted label nowadays.

So, back to those two fastballs. The four-seamer is essentially the “throw it as hard as you can” ball; if you hear someone use the generic term “fastball” to describe a particular pitch, this is the one they’re talking about. In terms of grip, a four-seamer isn’t all that different from the way any other fielder throws the baseball. The sinker, on the other hand, is a more specialized weapon. As the name suggests, it has more movement than a four-seam fastball, and it’s more useful for inducing weak contact than blowing the ball past the opposing batter. Yet, modern pitchers have been taking that “throw it as hard as you can” approach with their sinkers as well. Over the past four seasons, the average sinker is only 0.6 mph slower than the average four-seamer.

Thus far in 2023, 52 starting pitchers have crossed the 50-inning threshold while using both a four-seam fastball and a sinker at least 3% of the time. Of those 52, 83% throw both pitches within 1 mph of one another. All but two throw both pitches within 2 mph of one another. As you might have guessed, I’m here to write about the two exceptions, the two starting pitchers who throw their four-seamer and sinker nearly 3 mph apart: Shohei Ohtani and Dean Kremer. Read the rest of this entry »