So here’s what happened. I was watching the MLB game highlights of Tuesday’s Marlins-Blue Jays matchup. I like MLB’s game highlights; in order to keep all the quick cuts from feeling disjointed, they kind of just plop some music on top everything unceremoniously, and sometimes the music can really color your perception of the game. This Mets-Padres game from April is a great example. It was a nailbiter, but it lost some of its nerve-wracking heft thanks to a soundtrack that’s a cross between John Coltrane, Kool & The Gang, and Super Mario 3.

Two on, two out, bottom of the ninth, and it sounds like the monologue is about to start on Saturday Night Live. Anyway, I was watching Tuesday’s Marlins-Jays highlights (the soundtrack for which sounds like The Living End on their union-mandated lunch break), and I noticed this single from Luis Arraez.

Normally, a single from Arraez is about the least remarkable thing in baseball. He is the game’s preeminent singles hitter (and depending on your worldview, perhaps the game’s preeminent hitter, period). What caught my eye was how quickly Daulton Varsho managed to cut this ball off, considering that Arraez slashed it just a foot inside the left field line. Varsho gets fantastic jumps, but I figured he also had to be playing extremely shallow. It occurred to me that maybe every outfielder is playing right on top of Arraez this year, seeing as dumping liners right in front of the outfielders for singles is his superpower. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another installment of Five Things, a look at odd circumstances and delightful happenings that caught my eye this past week. With the NBA solidly in its offseason, Zach Lowe’s column is taking a break, which means I might be the only Things show in town right now. This week was an awesome one for watching baseball, and I had a hard time narrowing the list down. I hope you like legends making big plays, unheralded rookies swinging games, and two Bay Area teams headed in opposite directions. Who am I kidding? Of course you like those things. Let’s get to it.

1. Joey’s Back!
The Reds are so much fun that I thought about making an entire five things column out of things I’m loving in Cincinnati these days, but I think we just call that an article, so I’m going to settle for writing about one of the best parts of their recent winning streak. As fun as it’s been to see the baby Reds gain confidence and romp to the top of the NL Central, there was something missing. All these kids are fun, but they were missing the team’s best player in a generation while he rehabbed in preparation for what will almost certainly be his last ride.

I started to get excited when Joey Votto’s goofy bus driver persona resurfaced. But I won’t lie to you: I was worried that he might not fit in as well as hoped. The infield was already packed with contributors, and Votto might lead the team to some tough playing time decisions they didn’t really want to make. He wasn’t even that good last year! It was definitely not preordained that everything would work out. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

As one would expect, records and milestones often reflect the eras in which they’re achieved. Pitching records tend to be set in low-offense eras, while offensive milestones rack up more quickly at times when runs are plentiful. As the game ebbs and flows, certain benchmarks that are achievable in one era become far more difficult, or even impossible, in another. One of these achievements, which has long fascinated fans, is hitting .400. Even as batting average became a less relevant number in the post-Deadball era (and even less so as front offices gravitated toward other metrics 75 years later), baseball observers have still rooted for someone to hit .400. I’m one of them; not everything that’s fun has to be an amazing analytical tool, and vice-versa. Hits are, for lack of a better word, cool, and the ability to rack up value primarily via batting average has become far rarer than it used to be. And if hits are cool, Luis Arraez is in super-rad territory, as the Marlins second baseman is currently sitting at .398 as we approach the season’s halfway mark.

Whether you think the most recent .400 hitter was Ted Williams, who put up a .406 average in 1941, or Josh Gibson, who put up an impressive .466 for the Homestead Grays in 69 games a couple of years later, there are very few baseball fans remaining who have a living memory of a .400 hitter. After the Splendid Splinter hit .388 in 1957, it was another 20 years until anyone came that close (Rod Carew in 1977). There were always scattered attempts, such as George Brett‘s effort to sneak up to .400 when he hit a stunning .421 in the second half of the 1980 season (he ran out of calendar, finishing at .390). The offensive outburst of the 1990s wasn’t just in home runs, but in batting average as well, and there was another mini-run of .400 attempts. From 1993 through 2000, there were a surprising number of first-half hitters above .380: Tony Gwynn (twice), Larry Walker, Nomar Garciaparra, John Olerud, Darin Erstad, Todd Helton, Frank Thomas, and Paul O’Neill. Nobody’s been at .380 in the first half more recently, and since 2010, only Justin Turner’s gone into the All-Star break with a batting average north of .370. Read the rest of this entry »

Charlie Blackmon is heading down the home stretch of what has been a productive career with the Colorado Rockies. A little more than a week away from his 37th birthday and in his 13th season with the club that drafted him out of Georgia Tech in 2008, the left-handed-hitting outfielder has stroked 1,646 hits, 572 of which have gone for extra bases. Boasting a .296 career batting average — Coors Field has certainly benefitted him — he topped the Senior Circuit in that department in 2017, when he hit .331. Only Todd Helton has played more games in a Rockies uniform.

Blackmon, who is currently on the injured list with a fractured hand, sat down to talk hitting when Colorado visited Boston earlier this month.

———

David Laurila: Prior to the 2017 season, I talked to you and one of your then-teammates for a piece titled “Charlie Blackmon and Chris Denorfia on Launch Angles.” What are your thoughts on that subject six years later?

Charlie Blackmon: ”Yeah, so launch angle is something people were really excited about a little while ago. I think that’s a way to reverse engineer a really good hit or a home run, right? It’s taking a dataset and saying, ‘Guys have a higher slugging percentage when they hit the ball in the air,’ and then basically find out that 31 degrees is their optimal angle. I mean, it’s like taking something you already knew was good and saying, ‘Well, now I’m going to try to hit it 31 degrees.’

“Adding lift to your swing is going to put the ball in the air, but I didn’t really like how people were going about it. Now I’m seeing that change. I think where the game is from a pitching perspective, even compared to five years ago, is very different. If you look across the league, I would bet that the amount of strikes thrown in the upper third of the zone has more than doubled. I would say that 70% of the pitchers in the league consistently throw high fastballs, whereas it wasn’t long ago that everybody was trying to throw down and away. There has been a big shift in pitching philosophy and fastball-location philosophy in the past few years.” Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Romano is one of the best closers in baseball, but you wouldn’t know it from perusing your average sports page. He’s a quiet star, in the mildly pejorative sense often implied by “quiet” — not well-enough known, not well-enough talked about, somehow lacking in whatever je ne sais quoi that makes you a star.

Here’s the thing, though: that’s silly. At FanGraphs, we try to avoid that very way of thinking, and yet we’ve written almost nothing about Romano in the past few years. An interview here, a hockey anecdote there, the occasional fantasy piece — it’s not what you’d expect from a guy at the top of the bullpen hierarchy for a playoff team. I’m not kidding myself; this article is Canadian fan service. Let’s talk about what makes Romano so dang good, and ignore why audiences in America seem to ignore him.

If you’re looking at it from a pitch perspective, this one is pretty easy. Romano is good because he throws a hellacious fastball and backs it with an above-average slider. His fastball is a work of art. All the things you’ve heard about what makes a four-seamer good? He has them. He avoids the dreaded line of normality that plagues some heaters that underperform their radar gun numbers; his is mostly up-and-down. Per Baseball Savant, his fastball drops 1.7 inches less than the average four-seamer thrown with similar velocity and also gets 2.4 inches less arm-side fade. In other words, when he throws it to a righty, it ends up less inside than they expect, and also meaningfully higher. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh addresses an interview upgrade on the preceding episode, chats with FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski about Luis Arraez’s chances of batting .400, Stat Blasts (22:36) about extremes in team winning and losing streaks, welcomes in David Lewis (28:00) for the final Past Blast, and talks to prolific science fiction (and baseball science fiction) author Rick Wilber (44:48) about being the son of big leaguer Del Wilber, his career and love for baseball and sci-fi, and the podcast’s forthcoming Future Blast series, plus a postscript (1:26:00) about Tyler Wells and Taylor Walls, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, Rob Manfred and public ballpark funding, contentious plays at the plate, and a new walk-up-music database.

Audio intro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Carleton interview episode
Link to MLB.com on Arraez
Link to Dan on Arraez
Link to Statcast park factors
Link to Foolish thread on AVG+
Link to AVG+ leaderboard
Link to story about Reds’ latest win
Link to Reds streak fun fact
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to longest in-season-streaks sheet
Link to more streaks data
Link to Past Blast EW wiki page
Link to 2023 Past Blast source
Link to Ben on the pitch clock
Link to Ben on the pitch clock again
Link to B-Ref’s new rules page
Link to Rickwood Field story
Link to Hinchliffe Stadium story
Link to first Dick Trueman episode
Link to second Dick Trueman episode
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Rick Wilber’s website
Link to Wilber’s baseball works
Link to My Father’s Game
Link to Del Wilber’s SABR bio
Link to Lucky Starr wiki
Link to Wade/Ward wiki
Link to Trout/Betts interview
Link to Trout/Ohtani at-bat
Link to Bochy ejection video
Link to Melvin ejection video
Link to the NYT on plate-blocking
Link to Heim’s replay-review gesture
Link to Manfred’s Time interview
Link to scholars survey on funding
Link to story on the Astros comment
Link to trade trees site
Link to trade values site
Link to thread on walk-up-songs site
Link to MLB walk-up-songs site
Link to The Walk-Up Database
Link to walk-up-site requests thread

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If we’ve written it once, we’ve written it a hundred times: Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is a solid player, but if he could just figure out how to hit the ball in the air, he’d be a star. Well, here we are in June 2023, and it appears that Hayes has finally started elevating the ball some.

For the second season in a row, Hayes has knocked at least five percentage points off his groundball rate, increased his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, and more than doubled his launch angle. And for the second season in a row, his overall performance at the plate has stayed almost exactly the same. Let me say this very clearly: We were wrong. We are so sorry. We will work to do better in the future. Let’s take a look at what exactly Hayes has been doing to make liars out of us. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Justin Choi wrote a fascinating article about sinkers. You should read it, because Justin’s stuff is great, but I’m going to summarize it here because I want to riff on it a little bit. In essence, Justin pointed out what we all kind of knew but didn’t talk about much: sinkers are much better against same-handed batters. Teams have caught on, and they’re changing usage accordingly.

Here’s a great chart from that article: the percentage of all right-handed sinkers that are thrown to right-handed batters:

That’s pretty straightforward: pitchers are increasingly using sinkers only when they have the platoon advantage. Here’s another way of looking at it: the percentage of sinkers among all pitches thrown by righties to lefties, league-wide:

In plain English, pitchers have stopped throwing sinkers when they’re faced with opposite-handed batters. Meanwhile, they’re throwing right/right sinkers as frequently as ever:

Those two charts hardly look like the same pitch, and in fact they aren’t really. Righty pitchers are actually playing two slightly different games: they’re pitching to same-handed batters and separately pitching to opposite-handed hitters. The object of both games is to get the batter out, so it’s not like the games are that different, but it’s inconceivable that the same pitches would be best against both sides. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus banter about the return of Joey Votto, the suddenly exciting Cincinnati Reds, the NL Central and NL West races, and more, then (25:45) discuss several of the developments chronicled in Russell’s new book, The New Ballgame: The Not-So-Hidden Forces Shaping Modern Baseball, including the impact of the one-inning reliever, the expansion of baseball’s talent pool, the redefinition of positions, the strikeout conundrum, and the role of analytics in shaping the sport. After that (1:23:27), Ben honors the promotions of Votto and Bo Naylor by talking to Scott Crawford, director of operations for the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame, about the Hall’s latest induction weekend, its election process and criteria, the history of the Hall and baseball in Canada, the Hall’s collection and relationships with other Halls of Fame, the baseball landscape in Canada, and more, followed by a Past Blast (1:54:16) from 2022.

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Nate Emerson, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to record of EW guests
Link to video of Votto’s return
Link to Votto’s postgame interview
Link to MLBTR on Votto
Link to Krall comment
Link to Reds playoff appearances
Link to Reds depth chart
Link to team batting ages
Link to team pitching ages
Link to BaseRuns standings
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Russell’s book
Link to Arraez/Nomar fun fact
Link to Freeway Series fun fact
Link to Verducci on pitch-tipping
Link to Ben on bullpenning
Link to Ben on mid-PA pitching changes
Link to Ben on strikeouts
Link to Russell on strikeouts
Link to Eno Sarris on strikeouts
Link to Bill James on strikeouts
Link to Lewie Pollis on strikeouts
Link to Ben on super-utility players
Link to Ben on Dodgers positional fluidity
Link to Russell on position switches
Link to Russell on the invasive reliever
Link to Russell on reliever-like starters
Link to Ben on pitcher roster limits
Link to The Athletic player survey
Link to Dan S. on Naylor
Link to Canadian Baseball HoF website
Link to Canadian Baseball HoF wiki
Link to Walker’s photos
Link to Jenkins tweet about Votto
Link to French baseball glossary
Link to 2005 article on Doucet
Link to info on Chatham team
Link to info on class of 2023
Link to induction weekend account
Link to 2022 Past Blast source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Rickwood Field story

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