Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about more examples of players whose names describe what they do (like Colin Holderman), the return of Justin Verlander, Juan Soto’s overdue hot streak, Keynan Middleton calling out Carlos Correa, the difference between Craig Kimbrel’s leverage and results, and how success lowers the boo threshold, then (16:22) react to excerpts from Ben’s conversation with an MLB exec about rules changes and strikeouts. After that (37:38), they bring on top-tier Patreon supporter Mack Mashburn to discuss his background as a podcaster listener and baseball fan and answer listener emails about the pitch clock and suspense, the next step for home run celebrations, narrowing fair territory at high elevations, the competitive advantage of cloud seeding, whether relievers all long to be starters, whether Baseball Zen isn’t zen enough, MLB Gameday’s recent redesign, why lefties tend to throw slower than righties, the causes of increasing injury rates, the effects of improved pitching machines, a wizard who makes players shorter every time they get hits or strikeouts, and Aristides Aquino’s DRS, plus a Past Blast from 2003 (1:58:40) and follow-ups (2:01:56).

Audio intro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Holderman immaculate inning
Link to Wynn headline 1
Link to Wynn headline 2
Link to Wynn headline 3
Link to Webb comments
Link to Verlander gamer
Link to Middleton comments
Link to low-WPA relievers
Link to high-leverage relievers
Link to Muncy walk-off
Link to Cardinals booing
Link to Ben on rules and strikeouts
Link to baseball drag measurements
Link to Sam on the pitch clock
Link to Sheehan on the pitch clock
Link to Emma on HR celebrations
Link to info on NPB HR celebrations
Link to Grant on “beast mode”
Link to Franco’s ball toss
Link to Sam on unwritten rules
Link to foul lines article
Link to more foul lines info
Link to foul lines column
Link to foul lines verdict
Link to Tal’s Hill story
Link to cloud seeding wiki
Link to McClellan EW interview
Link to “failed starters” Stat Blast
Link to Baumann on Fulmer
Link to Baseball Zen videos
Link to Baseball Zen article
Link to Gameday redesign info
Link to Ben on lefty velo
Link to FG on lefty velo
Link to average LHP velo
Link to average RHP velo
Link to Ben on pitching machines
Link to leg-lengthening story
Link to more on leg lengthening
Link to listener emails database
Link to It’s Christmastown
Link to 2022 RF DRS leaders
Link to Aquino catch 1
Link to Aquino catch 2
Link to Aquino catch 3
Link to Aquino catch 4
Link to 2003 Past Blast source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Peacock broadcast info
Link to announced attendance article
Link to pitch counts Stat Blast
Link to Turner’s quote
Link to Speier tweet
Link to Zimmer’s velo column
Link to Rickey’s ’51 Williams report
Link to 1886 “velo” use
Link to ESPN on Alabama betting
Link to The Athletic on Alabama betting
Link to Baumann on Alabama betting

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The Cubs signed Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal in December, hoping that the combination of improved health and a change of scenery could help the slugger rebound from a pair of dismal seasons in the wake of injuries to both his left leg and right shoulder. Though the 27-year-old center fielder started the season slowly, he’s since heated up and just completed his most productive calendar month since his MVP-winning 2019 season. He may not beall the way back to his award-winning form, but he’s in a much better place that he was in his final years with the Dodgers.

Though he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in Wednesday’s 2–1 loss to the Nationals, Bellinger is hitting .291/.364/.573 with seven homers and a 149 wRC+. He finished April with a 158 wRC+, his highest for any month in the past five seasons:

You’ll note the token representation of months from the 2020–22 seasons there (to be fair there were only two from 2020 due to the pandemic); I went to 11 on the list above just to include the last of those, as they’re the only ones in which Bellinger even hit at a league average clip. On the flipside, within the same span he had five months with at least 59 PA and a 72 wRC+ or worse, and three ranging from 83–94 in terms of wRC+. At his worst, he hit an unfathomable .118/.186/.215 for an 11 wRC+ in 102 PA in July 2021. Read the rest of this entry »

Things aren’t going well in Oakland at the moment. Ownership, after years of quiet quitting, is up and moving the team. (Or maybe not, if owner John Fisher and his confederates turn out to be worse at lobbying than they are at pest control.) That leaves a last-place club to play out the string in front of “SELL THE TEAM” banners, probably for multiple years to come. The most obvious simile for this situation would be something along the lines of “like the waning days of a loveless marriage,” but that would be an insult to loveless marriages.

Still, a few dozen unfortunates are obliged to put on the storied green and gold colors of the Athletics and perform baseball six days a week. And they’re trying, albeit not too successfully, to win. It could happen! All the time we see a team made up mostly of youngsters, or with a payroll out of the mid-90s, get hit by lightning and make a run at the playoffs. Frequently that has even been the A’s in recent years.

Unfortunately, this year’s Athletics probably needed five or six different lightning strikes to turn their 100-loss roster into a contender. One break the A’s needed — following on the team’s biggest offseason move — involved outfielder Esteury Ruiz. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rays’ success has not exactly flown under the radar, what with a record-tying 13-game win streak to begin the season, the franchise’s longest winning streak in its 26-year history. Over the course of April, they rattled off another six-game winning streak and extended their opening home win streak to a modern major league-record 14. After taking the first two games of a home series against the unexpectedly dangerous Pirates, Tampa has found itself four games ahead of baseball’s next-best team at 25–6 — an incredible .806 winning percentage — along with far and away the league’s best run differential at +113, good for a margin of +3.6 runs per game. And the Rays are playing with the playful swagger of a team that knows just how good it is.

For a little context on what the Rays have achieved so far: their 23 wins through April were two more than any other team in the Modern Era (since 1901) before May — an accolade helped by modern scheduling, but impressive nonetheless. On a percentage basis, their .793 clip was the highest pre-May winning percentage since the 2001 Mariners went 20–5 (.800) to kick off their record-setting 116-win campaign. In the Modern Era, just five teams have managed higher winning percentages in March and April in at least 20 games. Read the rest of this entry »

In the beginning, there was nothing. Wait, no, that’s not right — in the beginning, there was Tommy Pham. Yeah, now we’re talking. In the beginning there was Tommy Pham. Then John Mozeliak said, “Let there be a trade,” and Pham decamped for Tampa Bay, San Diego, Cincinnati, Boston, and eventually New York. In exchange, the Cardinals got a sampler platter of minor prospects: Justin Williams, Roel Ramírez, and Génesis Cabrera.

Williams and Ramírez are long gone from the St. Louis organization, but Cabrera is still going strong. That might have oversold it coming into the year — in 157.1 innings across 142 games, Cabrera had compiled a 3.95 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 0.4 fWAR. That’s hardly an imposing line, but the Cardinals hardly had an imposing bullpen, so he fit solidly into the middle of that group heading into 2023.

He’s only pitched 11 times in 2023, but those 11 times have been revelatory. Nineteen of the 45 opponents he’s faced have struck out. Only three have walked. That’s no fluke, either; he’s so deceptive and so hard to square up that he’s recorded more called or swinging strikes than he has balls this year, by a count of 68 to 60.

That’s a huge divergence from Cabrera’s earlier career, when he struggled with both his command and with missing bats. From 2019 to 2022, he racked up 260 more called balls than called and swinging strikes. You can think of that gap as a crude measure of how much a pitcher can attack the zone or entice hitters to leave the zone without giving up too much contact. If you simply pound the strike zone with so-so stuff, you won’t get many called or swinging strikes. If you nibble ineffectually, you’ll run up a huge tally of called balls.
Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about players being paid for on-field, in-game interviews, pitcher injuries and pitcher call-ups, how low Oakland’s attendance could go (and whether the team might bungle its move to Las Vegas), the NL West race, the AL East’s strength compared to the AL Central’s, which team invented the in-dugout home run ritual, whether the Angels should sign Gary Sánchez, Bryce Harper’s return, the Marlins’ record in one-run games, Colin Holderman and nominative determinism, and more, plus a Past Blast (1:18:13) from 2002.

Audio intro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to report about player payments
Link to Emma on in-game interviews
Link to Ben on in-game interviews
Link to article on Rockies trying
Link to FG’s prospect rankings
Link to Millers game
Link to lowest 2023 attendance
Link to lowest 2022 attendance
Link to lowest 1990-2019 attendance
Link to ’97 White Sox game story
Link to Passan’s A’s tweet
Link to 2014 Dodgers bubbles story
Link to 2013 A’s tunnel story
Link to 2023 HR celebrations
Link to Twins HR celebration
Link to Sam on WS dogpiles
Link to Sam on walk-off celebrations
Link to Mariners trident story
Link to article on AL East strength
Link to depth charts standings
Link to playoff odds
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Yankees
Link to Yankees IL tweet
Link to combined WAR leaderboard
Link to MLBTR on Sánchez
Link to catcher depth charts
Link to Sánchez’s Savant page
Link to article on Sánchez’s defense
Link to Angels coaches tweet
Link to Ben C. on Harper
Link to BaseRuns records
Link to Holderman’s game log
Link to 2002 Past Blast source
Link to 2002 source, cont’d.
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack

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Alex Verdugo has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over his last four games, the Boston Red Sox outfielder is 8-for-19 with four doubles and a pair of home runs, and two of his hits have been of the walk-off variety. Moreover, he’s swung a productive bat all season. Verdugo’s left-handed stroke has produced a .317/.381/.524 slash line and five long balls in 139 plate appearances. His wRC+ is a healthy 148.

The 26-year-old Tucson native has slashed .290/.346/.433 in his three-plus years wearing a Red Sox uniform, and to say that his performance has attracted a fair amount of scrutiny would be an understatement. That’s understandable. In February 2020, Boston acquired Verdugo, along with Connor Wong and Jeter Downs, in exchange for Mookie Betts and David Price.

Verdugo discussed his evolution as a hitter, which has included the realization that trying to hammer home runs is detrimental to his success, prior to Tuesday’s game at Fenway Park.

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David Laurila: This is your 10th professional season. Comparing now to then, how similar or different are you as a hitter?

Alex Verdugo: “I think I have the same mindset of what I’m trying to do. I’ve always been a guy that likes to hit the fastball to left and then pull the offspeed pitches. What’s changed throughout the years is how I deviate from my game plan. Back in the minors, back in the first couple of years, and even last year… I know my strengths, but I would be like, ‘You know what? I’m going to try to hit for power. I’m going to try to lift this. I’m going to try to pull a heater.’ Read the rest of this entry »

The loss of Jose Altuve to a broken thumb suffered during the World Baseball Classic has been a blow to the Astros, but while the team is off to an uncharacteristically slow start at 16-14, Mauricio Dubón has risen to the occasion while filling in for the eight-time All-Star. The 28-year-old infielder recently reeled off the season’s longest hitting streak, and on Monday exacted a bit of vengeance by collecting three hits that helped send his former team, the Giants, to defeat.

While playing for Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals, Altuve was hit in the right thumb by Team USA’s Daniel Bard, suffering a fracture that required surgery to set. At the time, the Astros estimated that Altuve would need two months before resuming baseball activity, putting him on track for a late May or early June return. The expectation was that unless general manager Dana Brown could add a player from outside the organization in the waning days of spring training, Dubón and rookie utilityman David Hensley would cover the keystone during Altuve’s absence.

It felt like a big opportunity for a nearly-forgotten player. The Astros acquired Dubón from the Giants last May 14, in a straight-up trade for backup catcher Michael Papierski, who played just five games for San Francisco before being lost to the Reds on waivers. It was the third time in five and a half years Dubón had been dealt; after being drafted in the 26th round out of a Sacramento high school by Boston in 2013, the Red Sox included him as part of the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg swap with the Brewers in December ’16. Dubón played in the Futures Game the following summer but his progress to the majors was interrupted by a torn left ACL in May 2018. He topped out as a 45 FV prospect, no. 5 on the Brewers’ 2019 list, but played in just two games for the team before being sent to the Giants in a deadline swap that brought Drew Pomeranz to Milwaukee. Read the rest of this entry »

What makes you happy? Among the things that bring a smile to my face, talking about catching is up there. I will look for any excuse to write, talk, or think about catcher defense. I’m one of those people that has missed catching bullpens since I’ve stopped playing regularly. For those of you who do not know, that is not normal! So whenever Statcast drops new information about catcher defense, I have to write about it.

A few weeks back, I covered some catchers who were throwing at a rate that suggested additional defensive value relative to their peers in the new, more aggressive stolen base environment. Soon thereafter, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello revealed a new stat, Caught Stealing Above Average, to the public, and that Baseball Savant would roll out a leaderboard that would offer a more objective look at throwing out runners relative to the traditional caught stealing stat. You can check out the full leaderboard here.

There are multiple components taken into consideration for Statcast’s model that try to even the playing field when it comes to throwing out runners — variables like pitcher delivery speed, a runner’s lead and jump, and more. Evening all of those out provides more insight on how some catchers are more deserving of outs than others. Typically, I would highlight the catchers who have excelled at throwing out runners, but to emphasize the value of this statistic, I instead want to look at those who have been unlucky this year and last despite consistent strong throws, as well as other catchers where the trends are concerning. The first of this group is expected but notable nonetheless:

J.T. Realmuto (1 Catcher Caught Stealing Above Average in 2023, no. 7)

Base stealers have been running like wild against the Phillies this season, and it’s made for some confusing statistics for J.T. Realmuto. Out of his first 17 stolen base attempts of second base, he’s only caught five runners. If you remember this piece back in November, you know Realmuto has one of the strongest arms and fastest pop times in the game; if anybody should be throwing out most runners, it’d be him. But this year, he is only running a 29% caught-stealing rate, partially due to plays like the one above, where his pitcher was just slightly too slow to home. He has still been better than his expected rate of 22%, but his bar is much higher than any catcher in the league.

Realmuto’s 2022 track record is even more impressive than this year’s. If you combine all of last season’s attempts with this year, his CS% sits at 48%, with an estimated CS% of 23%. His laser-quick pop time makes up for his slower-to-the-plate pitchers. Realmuto is elite at throwing, framing, and blocking; nobody else can make that claim to this extent. We are watching one of the best defensive catchers of his generation.

Shea Langeliers (2 Catcher Caught Stealing Above Average in 2023, no. 5)

Not many things are going right for the A’s, but Shea Langeliers has impressed on both sides of the ball. With a 109 wRC+ fueled by a .244 ISO, he is off to a solid start with the bat, and both his swing and power are promising. On the defensive side of the ball, he has averaged a 1.95 pop time but has been a little unlucky with throwing out runners, with a CS% in his first 19 attempts to second base of 32% but an estimated mark of 24% — a similar discrepancy as Realmuto. On this throw, he was as perfect as you can be, but his pitcher was dragging his feet to get the ball home, and Tony Kemp lost his glove on the tag anyways.

While the pop time isn’t elite on average, Langeliers has proven that he is accurate enough to throw runners out if given the opportunity. It’s one of those situations where he isn’t necessarily a top tier thrower and therefore doesn’t have much room for error if his pitchers don’t cut him some slack or if his throw is just slightly off line. To me, Langeliers is the type of catcher who offers a glimpse into the future. With some automated ball-strike system inevitably coming to MLB, his profile is one that would perfectly transition to that new reality, as he is only average at blocking and framing but is slightly above average at throwing. Combine that with above-league-average offense, and you have yourself a perfect prototype for the potential new catching environment.

Martín Maldonado (2 Catcher Caught Stealing Above Average in 2023, no. 4)

If it weren’t for Realmuto, Martín Maldonado would find himself atop the new throwing leaderboard from 2022 through today, with seven CS Above Average. This year is no different, as he holds a 33% CS% despite a mere 14% estimated rate. The pitchers in Houston aren’t helping him, but he is nabbing runners regardless. Case in point: the play above, where Cristian Javier’s big leg kick and loopy arm took up too much time, undermining Maldonado’s pinpoint throw. But even when he isn’t catching runners, he is making it close.

Over the past few years, I’ve gone back and forth on the Astros’ decision to use Maldonado as their primary catcher. He is an incredible fielder but is consistently one of the worst hitters in the game. As his framing skills have undergone a slight regression compared to earlier in his career, it’s statistically unclear if it’s worth keeping him as the mainstay. But the additional data on Maldonado’s elite throwing and blocking in the last few months reminds us why he’s the lead catcher in Houston. Combine that with his glorified intangibles, and you can easily understand why he has cemented himself as the starter despite the lack of offense.

This new information can work in the other direction, too. Sometimes catchers are unlucky because their pitchers put them in a hole, and other times they can be even worse than expected. Unfortunately, there are some promising young catchers who fall into the latter category. Keibert Ruiz is 2-for-17 (12%) to start the year despite a 23% estimated CS%. His plus-2.00 pop time is the main reason for this. If his framing continues to trend in the wrong direction along with his arm, he will need to be an above-average hitter to live up to his prospect pedigree. Francisco Álvarez faces a similar dilemma, going 0-for-12 to start the year. His estimated CS% was only 12%, but his throws have not been competitive regardless.

For a while, catching was a semi-mystery; we knew who had rocket arms and who didn’t. Now, we have information about framing, blocking, and throwing that helps us figure out the true value of a gifted defensive catcher. It’s an exciting time to be a catching fanatic.

Bryce Harper is back. One hundred and sixty days ago — less than six months! — he had Tommy John surgery, repairing a torn elbow ligament he suffered last April. NBC Sports Philadelphia, who you’d think would have a good read on the situation, published an optimistic headline with an aggressive timetable: Harper could be swinging by mid-May and playing in major league games by the All Star break. It’s May 3 today.

Suffice to say that 160 days isn’t a lot of time. I have perishable goods in my fridge that might have been there when Harper went under the knife. As Jay Cuda noted, the White Sox hadn’t won two straight games all season (until last night) since Harper got a shiny (well, probably not literally) new ligament to replace his old one. That’s not how these timetables work.

Tommy John surgery makes players disappear for a while. They come back to a team that looks similar but not identical to the one they left behind. That’s technically true of the Phillies — Trea Turner is reprising his old role as Harper’s sidekick, Taijuan Walker is new in town, and the bullpen has turned over — but it still feels more or less like the team Harper left. A Philadelphia sports fan who was busy on Opening Day could tune into a Phillies game after the 76ers’ season is over and get confused. “Hey, wasn’t Harper getting TJ? What’s he doing in the lineup?” Read the rest of this entry »