We’re approaching the quarter mark of the regular season and there’s still a large group of teams that had high expectations heading into the season and have largely disappointed so far. A few of the surprise teams have continued to play well too, but we’re getting to the point where clubs are ready to really evaluate how their roster is shaping up for the summer.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

For the first time this season, the Rays looked somewhat beatable. They lost a three-game series to the Orioles in Baltimore in which both teams scored six total runs, then battled the Yankees to a series split in New York over the weekend. But those losses last week pale in comparison to the new injury woes they’re facing. After losing Jeffrey Springs earlier this year, Drew Rasmussen has joined him on the 60-day injured list with an ominous elbow injury. Then, on Sunday, Yandy Díaz was removed from the game after suffering a groin injury running the bases. Losing your best hitter is never a good thing, but at least Tampa Bay has the depth to cover for Díaz, and Tyler Glasnow is slowly making his way through his rehab process to fill a hole in the rotation. All those wins the Rays have banked to start the season will definitely come in handy if they end up having trouble overcoming the losses of these key players. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Caleb Durbin is an underdog’s underdog in an organization that boasts big-time star power. Acquired along with Indigo Diaz by the New York Yankees from the Atlanta Braves last December in exchange for Lucas Luetge the 23-year-old infield prospect is a former 14th round draft pick out of a Division-3 school. Moreover, he’s never going to be mistaken for Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Listed at 5-foot-6 (he claimed to be an inch taller when I talked to him earlier this week), Durbin looks like a stockier version of Jose Altuve.

He’s currently hitting not unlike the diminutive three-time batting champion. In 112 plate appearances — 97 with High-A Hudson Valley and 15 with Double-A Somerset — Durbin went into yesterday slashing .319/.446/.385. His bat-to-ball skills have been impressive. The Lake Forest, Illinois native has fanned just nine times while drawing 15 walks.

Durbin’s numbers at St. Louis’s Washington University were even more eye-opening. With the caveat that D-3 isn’t exactly the SEC, the erstwhile WashU Bear batted .386 with 42 walks and 10 strikeouts in 439 plate appearances over his three collegiate seasons. Since entering pro ball in 2021, he has 70 walks and 62 strikeouts in 631 plate appearances.

“Low strikeout rates are something I’ve always had,” said Durbin. “That’s kind of been my elite tool, if you want to call it that. I feel like that’s always going to be there, so it’s just a matter of building on my contact quality.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Akil Baddoo taking a baseball to the beans, broadcasters describing groin shots, and players deciding whether to wear cups. Then they compare a resurgent Joey Gallo and a slumping Andrew Benintendi (20:25), recall reliever Zack Littell’s affinity for cruise ships (33:22), forecast MLB’s international future (37:22), consider the Dodgers’ secret Ugandan academy (47:06), discuss an update on MLB’s integration of Negro Leagues stats (1:13:40), and assess their levels of anxiety about game-fixing in light of two college gambling scandals (1:30:21), plus a Past Blast (1:42:35) from 2006.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Baddoo play
Link to first cup tweet
Link to second cup tweet
Link to MLB nutshots compilation
Link to another nutshots video
Link to swinging nutshot video
Link to Ben Clemens on Gallo
Link to Ben L. on Gallo in 2014
Link to Gallo’s juggle catch
Link to Gallo on New York
Link to Gallo on New York again
Link to Littell article
Link to old Littell EW episode
Link to MLB international plans
Link to South Korea game info
Link to Uganda academy article
Link to info on Dodgers’ DR academy
Link to info on academies’ impact
Link to prospect exploitation report
Link to Horace Wilson article
Link to article on Negro Leagues stats
Link to Ben on MLB’s reclassification
Link to Ben on reclassification again
Link to Baumann on the Ala. scandal
Link to Sheehan on the Ala. scandal
Link to Iowa scandal story
Link to Iowa State info
Link to 2006 Past Blast source
Link to 2022 article on Jones
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Rasmussen info
Link to 2022 Megill story
Link to 2023 Megill story

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Position changes can be risky. The outcome depends heavily on the timing and circumstances of the switch, and the natural ability of the player. Sometimes, rookies need to carve out a roster spot for themselves and end up switching on the fly, like Jordan Walker. His shift to the outfield is a work in progress, just like it would be for most rookies. Then there are cases of a more experienced player moving due to roster construction, as with Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s move to center field.

Chisholm’s switch was precipitated by the Marlins’ offseason trade for Luis Arraez. With the sixth-worst offense (88 wRC+) in all of baseball in 2022 and good starting pitching depth, a pitcher-hitter swap to improve the lineup was highly logical, and the Marlins saw their best chance to obtain an impact bat in Arraez. That created something of an infield logjam. With Joey Wendle penciled in at shortstop and Jean Segura at third, the question became what they would do with their young star, who was slated to start at second base. Soon after the announcement of the trade, Kim Ng revealed that Jazz would be moving to center field, their most important position of need. His speed, athleticism, and lack of premium defense on the infield made it worth a try. Read the rest of this entry »

In the sea of prospects, Casey Schmitt barely caused a ripple. The only Top 100 list the infielder made before this season was Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101; he just squeezed in near the end at no. 94. The computer projections were no kinder, with ZiPS only projecting him as the fourth-best prospect in a rather weak San Francisco Giants system, just barely in its Top 200. Yet these limited expectations didn’t stop Schmitt from engulfing opposing pitchers in his first three big league games, as he went 8-for-12 with two home runs and two doubles.

Obviously, having three big games isn’t a guarantee of stardom — or even viability — in the majors. For example, Vaughn Eshelman started his major league career by throwing 13 shutout innings over his first two starts. He only had eight quality starts left in him (out of 28) and was out of the majors two years later. He might be best known for going on what was then the DL as a result of burning himself with a candle. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s not going well for the Mets these days. Since jumping out to a 14–7 start despite a slew of injuries, particularly to their rotation, they’ve lost 13 of 17 amid a particularly soft stretch of their schedule. Now, just as Justin Verlander is settling into the rotation after recovering from a teres major strain that delayed his debut, Max Scherzer has been scratched from a start for the second time this month, which at least sheds light on his early struggles. Alas, the Mets’ problems hardly end with their co-ace.

On Tuesday, the 38-year-old Scherzer was scratched from his scheduled start against the Reds due to neck spasms; on Wednesday, he couldn’t even play catch:

Max Scherzer tried to play catch just now but it didn't last long or go well. His neck is still "in spasm," as he put it. But he feels better today than he did yesterday.

"It hasn't fully let go yet," he said.

The Mets plan to slot him in during the Nationals series.

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) May 10, 2023

Scherzer was able to throw out to 90 feet in a flat-ground session on Thursday but won’t be able to start until Saturday at the earliest. That’s left the team’s rotation plans in apparent disarray…

Mets rotation looking dangerous ? pic.twitter.com/JBYudQGg0u

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) May 11, 2023

… not that a whole lot of good answers abound within a unit that ranks 12th in the NL with a 5.38 ERA, 14th with a 5.64 FIP, and dead last with -0.4 WAR. I don’t want to pile on here or overstate the obvious, but a $358 million payroll should probably buy more than that. Read the rest of this entry »

The bat waggle is by far the most popular way to stay loose at the plate. Presumably that’s because waiting for a pitch is one of the few situations when it’s socially acceptable to waggle something. Life just doesn’t offer that many opportunities to waggle. Also, it’s a two-fer. It doesn’t just keep you loose; it also keeps your bat loose. It’s all well and good if you’re body’s ready to hit, but good luck trying to catch up to a Justin Verlander fastball with a tight bat. (Fun Fact: It turns out that bats — you know, the actual winged creatures — have their own waggle.)

But even after you waggle your bat, those last couple seconds are tricky. You’re locked into your batting stance, and now you’re just waiting there at the mercy of the pitcher (and the pitch clock). You’ve got to do something to maintain attack readiness. Some players bounce the bat off their shoulder, or bounce a little bit deeper into their crouch a few times. They rock back and forth, raise and lower their hands, or grind the toe of their cleat into the dirt. Some even make sure their pelvis is loose. Like, really loose. Like, very, extremely, possibly even dangerously loose.

That’s an entirely different kind of waggle. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another installment of my weekly look at five things that caught my interest in baseball. As always, I’m indebted to Zach Lowe of ESPN for the idea — his basketball column remains one of my favorite reads in all of sports. That’s all the time we have for an introduction today, though, because there’s a lot to talk about. Let’s get to it.

1. Meaningful Baseball in Baltimore
It’s been a minute. The Orioles started a comprehensive teardown in 2017 and doubled down on it by hiring Mike Elias from the Astros after the 2018 season. They’ve finished fifth, fifth, fifth, fourth, fifth, and fourth in the AL East since then. There was a lot to follow on the prospect front, but the major league team looked bleak; the closest they came to first place in that stretch was 15 games out, and that was in the abbreviated 2020 season. Last year there was a glimmer of hope – the team finished 83-79 and Adley Rutschman, a generational catching prospect, impressed in his debut. But that team didn’t quite feel complete; the front office traded players away at the deadline and kept some of its top prospects in reserve.

This year feels different, with this week’s series against the first-place Rays the highest-stakes baseball in Baltimore in quite some time. The Orioles aren’t just second in their division, they’re second in the entire American League. That series was phenomenal, close throughout and well played across the board. The Orioles took two out of three, with an aggregate 6-6 scoreline, and it felt like two good teams trading blows, not one juggernaut and one pretender facing off. Read the rest of this entry »

If you have any sense at all, you probably deactivated your Facebook account years ago, and thus liberated yourself from knowing intimate details about your distant relatives, schoolmates, and old co-workers. In this situation, it’s nevertheless helpful if your partner, or a close friend, remains plugged in. All the more so if they’re an inveterate gossip. Because even if you don’t want the fire hose of information, a little splash of water every now and then is refreshing.

Your second cousin once removed? Getting divorced for the third time, and getting really into NFTs about a year too late. The girl you asked (unsuccessfully) to junior prom? Just won a local Emmy for her work as a TV meteorologist. Booger from the sales department at your first job out of college? Newly ordained as a deacon at his church. Good for you, Booger.

As we go through life, we accumulate people according to time and context. A very small percentage of those stick and become lifelong friends; most drift away when circumstances change. Even people who are vitally important at one time — even roommates, romantic partners, confidants — float away sooner or later, to be replaced by some other person more suitable to the new social context. Read the rest of this entry »