In the fourth incarnation of a time-honored tradition that recurs every 500-ish episodes, Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by former co-hosts Sam Miller and Jeff Sullivan, and The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee, to draft assorted things that they like about baseball, followed (1:37:06) by a Past Blast from 2000.
The new rules introduced to MLB this season have been the subject of much discussion. From the larger bases and pickoff rules leading to a rise in stolen bases, to the shift restrictions resuscitating the pulled groundball, to the potential impact of the pitch timer on the fan and player experience, the 2023 rule changes have been the most significant in recent memory.
Whether or not new ideas end up in the final rulebook, the league is constantly innovating to determine whether further changes would improve the game. In 2019, MLB reached an agreement with the Atlantic League, considered to be the highest non-affiliated league in the country, to “test experimental playing rules and equipment during the Atlantic League’s Championship Season.” Recent rule changes like the larger bases and limited infield shifting were piloted in the Atlantic League before coming to MLB, but not every rule tested there has been or will be implemented in the majors. In 2021, the Atlantic League moved the pitching mound back by a foot, breaking a century-long custom. The goal was to give hitters a better chance against premium velocity while also allowing breaking balls to shine more, but testing found that the change hadn’t accomplished its intended effects. Last week, MLB announced its new experimental rules for the 2023 Atlantic League season, which begins today:
Here are the experimental rules MLB is using in the Atlantic League which starts on Friday, April 28: pic.twitter.com/93NSEFR59B
While I’m sure those of you who are reading this should be aware of what I’m about to say, I’m going to say it anyway: hitting baseballs is difficult. In fact, it is the very reason I’m writing this piece. As I’ve watched the beginning of the season, I’ve noticed some hitters make tweaks here and there. Hitting is a game of adjustments; if one thing doesn’t work or doesn’t feel comfortable, you try the next, and so on and so forth until something clicks. When you’re struggling at the plate, there are some rules of thumb to consider if you’re considering a change. The first thing that comes to mind is obvious: simplify.
There are a few ways to interpret that, but what I have in mind focuses on a hitter’s load. Depending on factors such as bat speed, barrel acceleration, and pitch identification, a hitter will fall somewhere between Javier Báez and Giancarlo Stanton on the movement spectrum. By that, I mean that you can move almost every part of your body, or you can just pick your bat up off your shoulder and swing. Neither is necessarily better than the other, but for some hitters, too much movement (or movement in an inefficient direction) can negatively impact bat path or the ability to make flush contact on a consistent basis. An adjustment which simplifies your load can make it easier for a hitter to get the bat on plane with the baseball. Read the rest of this entry »
Say this for the White Sox: They scored runs on Thursday. Sure, they were thrashed 14–5 by the Rays, which extended their losing streak to eight games, but they ended their scoreless streak at 25 innings, scored more runs than they had in the previous four games (three), and matched their total of hits from the previous three games (11). When you’ve lost 13 out of your last 15 games, this counts as progress.
Chicago’s current skid has dropped the team’s record to 7–19, the third-worst in the majors. There’s no ambiguity about whether the White Sox are bad: they also have the third-worst run differential and projected winning percentage, according to both PythagenPat and BaseRuns:
Bryson Stott began this season with a 17-game hit streak, marking a new Phillies franchise record to start a season. Eleven of those games were multi-hit efforts, culminating in 29 hits across his first 81 plate appearances. He’s added a handful of hits since his streak ended on April 18 and his overall line now stands at .339/.368/.459, good for a 126 wRC+. His early season success has been one of the few bright spots for the Phillies as they deal with a a variety of woes.
While Stott’s hot start is being at least partially driven by some fortunate results when he has put the ball in play — his BABIP currently stands at .417 — his success is also the culmination of a number of adjustments he’s made since making the Opening Day roster as a rookie last year. His initial exposure to the big leagues didn’t go very well. He collected just four hits across 31 plate appearances and was demoted to Triple-A on April 20 after playing in just nine games in the majors. Upon getting recalled on May 8, he continued to struggle until making an adjustment to his swing. Read the rest of this entry »
There’s a new pitch classification, well, sweeping the nation, and with the aptly-named sweeper comes a lot to learn about its behavior, usage, and effectiveness. For those catching up, the sweeper, which Statcast introduced to its pitch classification system this spring, is a breaking ball that plays more on the horizontal plane than the vertical one, typically thrown slower and with more break than a slider, “sweeping” across its path rather than dropping the way a traditional curveball might. The rarer slurve, on the other hand, breaks horizontally like a sweeper but also features more downward break. While the slider classification had become a bit of a catch-all for pitches that break horizontally, which vary tremendously in velocity and depth of the break, the introduction of the sweeper classification helps to differentiate the breaking ball by both the type and the amount of horizontal break. For reference, here’s what the average sweeper, slider, curveball, and slurve have looked like so far this year:
Pitch Type Averages, 2023
Pitch Type
Velocity
Glove-Side Movement
Vertical Movement w/o Gravity
Sweeper
81.6
14.6
2.2
Slider
84.8
5.9
2.0
Curveball
79.7
8.8
-8.9
Slurve
82.4
14.5
-3.1
SOURCE: Statcast
As many have noted, this isn’t a new pitch so much as it is a recognition of trends toward a pitch that was already there. Over the last seven seasons, the percentage of breaking balls that broke at least a foot to the pitcher’s glove side has risen from 17.7% in 2017 to 27.4% so far this year, including a seven-point increase in the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the average vertical drop (without gravity) on those breaking balls has shrunk from -5.9 inches as recently as 2019 to just -2.0 so far this year. Over the last few years, pitchers have been sending more and more breaking balls veering across the strike zone without dropping. Pitchers and teams have different names for the pitch – the Yankees call their version a “whirly;” Statcast now calls it a sweeper. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to another edition of five things that I liked (or didn’t like) in baseball this week. I got the idea for this column from Zach Lowe, who writes my favorite basketball column with the same conceit. This week’s edition is highlighted by superstars being superstars, pitchers trying everything they can to keep evolving, and, of course, my two favorite topics: bunts and errors. Let’s get to it.
1. Jacob deGrom’s Cold Fury
Order has been restored – Jacob deGrom is back from injury and is once again the best pitcher in baseball. After an Opening Day hiccup, he looks a lot like he did the last time he was terrifying opposing hitters: upper-90s fastball, wipeout slider, and pinpoint command that makes the whole thing feel vaguely unfair. In his past three outings, one of which was shortened thanks to a mini injury scare, he has 25 strikeouts and one walk. Even if you don’t want to separate it that way, he has 43 strikeouts and three walks on the year. It’s outrageous. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Drew Maggi’s major league debut and whether there should be a way for other journeyman minor leaguers to make the majors more easily, the story of short-lived Mariners mascot Spacey the Space Needle, the causes of a dramatic uptick in occurrences of catcher’s interference, Shohei Ohtani’s anti-pitch-tipping prowess, Jordan Walker’s demotion to the minors, the slow starts of the Cardinals and White Sox, and more, plus (1:17:03) a Past Blast from 1999 and a question about celebrities on major league rosters.
Robbie Ray did not replicate his 2021 AL Cy Young-winning form last year. In fact, he struggled down the stretch, but he did make a solid contribution as the Mariners ended their 21-year playoff drought. Alas, he won’t get to help them try to repeat that feat. On Wednesday, the Mariners announced that the 31-year-old lefty will undergo surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon and miss the remainder of the season.
After a promising spring training in which he restored some lost velocity to his four-seam fastball, Ray made just one start, and it wasn’t pretty. Facing the Guardians on March 31, he needed 26 pitches to complete the first inning, during which he issued back-to-back four-pitch walks to José Ramírez and Josh Bell before escaping by striking out Josh Naylor. His fastball velocity quickly diminished and he lasted just 3.1 innings, walking five and surrendering four hits and five runs (three earned).
In the immediate aftermath, Ray didn’t tell reporters that he had felt tightness in his forearm starting in the second inning, a problem that he attributed to the cold weather. After undergoing an MRI the next day due to lingering soreness, he was diagnosed with a Grade 1 flexor strain; only in discussing the injury with reporters did he reveal his discomfort. Read the rest of this entry »
After a fantastic run in the World Baseball Classic, Randy Arozarena has stayed red hot. Defensive metrics see him as a hair better in left field this year, and he’s also been slightly above average on the basepaths. That’s a big upgrade from the extremely entertaining but ultimately deleterious aggression he showed in 2022. Oh, and I should probably mention that he’s the eighth-best hitter in all of baseball right now, right behind some guy named Trout. Arozarena is running a 182 wRC+, up from his already very good career mark of 129. All three of the figures in his .348/.412/.584 slash line would be career-best marks over a full season. Put it all together, and Arozarena is currently on pace to double his career WAR total.
How is he doing all this? I’m not completely sure. Don’t get me wrong; the numbers tell a story, and there are some other convenient narratives at hand. I’m just not convinced of how everything fits together. That’s actually why I was so interested in writing about Arozarena. He’s way more fascinating than some guy named Randy has any right to be.
Let’s start with one thing we can be sure of: Randy Arozarena is absolutely hammering the baseball. He’s always been capable of posting eye-popping exit velocities, but this year he’s doing it consistently. Last year, his average exit velocity was 89.9 mph and his hard-hit rate was 40.7%, both solidly above average. This year he’s at 95.1 and 59.2%. That’s not just good; that’s Yordan Alvarez territory. In terms of contact quality, Arozarena has never had a stretch like this:
It’s not just that he’s hitting the ball harder than ever. He’s also avoiding mis-hits at a career-best rate. His 7% soft-hit rate is tied for seventh-lowest in the league, and none of the six players ahead of him has a higher hard-hit rate.
Arozarena is also lifting the ball more than ever. His line drive rate is at 20%, and his fly ball rate is at 38.6%. While both would be career highs over a full season, this isn’t completely unprecedented. Arozarena has had previous stretches with lower groundball rates, though combined with his elevated hard-hit rate, this one has led him to a career-best 16.9% barrel rate. What’s new is his launch angle tightness. Despite all this lift, his popup rate is at a career low. Arozarena’s average launch angle is up by 3.0 degrees, but the standard deviation of his launch angle is down by 3.3 degrees. He’s consistently hitting the ball where he can do the most damage, reaping all the benefits of an improved launch angle with none of the downside. Courtesy of Baseball Savant:
The last big change is that Arozarena is using right field like never before. Batters tend to elevate the ball more when they’re going the other way, but that’s not nearly enough to explain what’s going on here. His 36.6% opposite field rate is well above his 24% career average, and his pull rate is also at a career low. This is something entirely new. He’s now spraying the ball all over the field, and he’s never had a stretch where he’s gone the other way so frequently or pulled the ball so infrequently. Further, when he hits the ball to the right side, he’s hitting it with authority. His career average exit velocity on balls the other way is 88 mph. This year it’s 95.2 mph:
Randy Arozarena – Spray Angle Splits
Pull
Center
Oppo
Season
GB/FB
Hard%
wRC+
GB/FB
Hard%
wRC+
GB/FB
Hard%
wRC+
2019-22
2.97
35.2
206
1.42
34.6
183
0.53
27.5
189
2023
3.75
36
267
0.89
55
200
0.43
46.2
229
As you can see, Arozarena’s hard-hit rate is roughly unchanged when he pulls the ball. He’s hitting more grounders than normal to the left side, and he’s succeeding there partly by hitting the ball harder and partly through batted ball luck. However, on balls up the middle and to the opposite field, his hard-hit rates have skyrocketed and he’s hitting the ball in the air more than ever. In fact, the numbers indicate that his 229 wRC+ to the opposite field might actually be a bit lower than he deserves.
Arozarena’s profile has always been a little bit tough to parse. For example, take a look at the heat maps below. On the left is Arozarena’s career slugging percentage per ball in play. On the right is his contact rate:
Some of the pitches that Arozarena really crushes, like the ones at the top of the zone, are also the ones he swings through most often. In fact, if you take a closer look, you’ll notice that Arozarena also tends to have lower contact rates right in the middle of the plate, a trend that has continued this year. He’s capable of doing damage below the zone, or on pitches just off the plate outside.
I bring this up because this is the part of the article where I would normally dig into the underlying metrics and tell you that Arozarena is mashing the ball because he’s chasing less, getting ahead in the count, and taking advantage of meatballs in the zone. Or maybe that he’s just focusing on the pitches he can really crush. That’s how these things tend to work. And while Arozarena is in fact chasing less and seeing slightly more pitches in the zone, I don’t really think that explains the transformation in his batted ball profile.
Arozarena’s chase rate is 7.5 percentage points lower than it was last year. That’s a big drop, but it also leaves him right around his 2001 rate, and he wasn’t running a 180 wRC+ or a 60% hard-hit rate in 2021. He’s striking out a lot less and walking slightly more, but he’s also whiffing more often. In fact, he’s seen more strikes overall and spent a lower percentage of the time ahead in the count this year.
Arozarena’s overall contact rate is up slightly, though again, it’s not that simple. He’s making more contact in the zone and whiffing more when he chases. I don’t know how repeatable that is, but it’s a neat trick if you can pull it off. Combine it with a lower swing rate (particularly outside the zone), and all of sudden more of his batted balls come on pitches in the zone. But still, we’re only talking about an increase of 2.3 percentage points. That doesn’t sound like enough to explain a hard-hit rate that’s jumped nearly 20.
Here’s the bigger thing: Name a split, and within that split Arozarena is hitting the ball harder this year than he did last year. Ahead, behind, or even in the count? Randy Arozarena is hitting the ball harder. Inside or outside the zone? Randy Arozarena is hitting the ball harder. Heart, shadow, or chase zone. Fastball, breaking ball, or offspeed. Lefty, righty, home, away, fly ball, groundball, line drive; he’s even hitting his popups harder. His numbers are down just a hair on the inner third, which is certainly understandable given his new propensity to rip the ball the other way, but that’s really all I could find. The guy is just plain hitting the ball harder, and I’m not prepared to conclude that it all comes down to his swing decisions.
That brings us to our two tidy narratives. The first is something Adam Berry described somewhat bluntly on the Ballpark Dimensions Podcast. “He was openly not really looking into scouting reports,” Berry told Mike Petriello. “He would ask the hitting coach or the manager, whoever ‘What’s this guy’s fastball?’ That’s all he needed to know before he went up for a plate appearance. He even told us last year at one point he didn’t know other pitchers’ names. He knew his fellow Cubans, and he knew Gerrit Cole, and that was it.”
Joe Trezza gave a more nuanced picture at MLB.com. It’s not that Arozarena couldn’t be bothered, Trezza explained, “He eschewed data, preferring to stay in the moment and let his natural ability take over. Sometimes, he told teammates, he didn’t even want to know the opposing pitcher’s name.”
I am definitely willing to believe that more preparation has helped Arozarena. Lest we forget, this wouldn’t be the first time that Arozarena has decided to put in extra work to up his game and done exactly that. Arozarena is still chasing breaking stuff at almost exactly the same rate, but he is laying off more four-seamers above the zone and offspeed stuff below it. That could be due to having a better idea of how pitchers are attacking him. At the very least, it’s safe to say that incorporating new information into his gameplan hasn’t hurt.
The other thing that could tie our story up with a bow is that Arozarena has made some significant changes to his swing. Last year his stance was extremely upright. This year, he’s crouching a bit more, as he did in 2020. Last year, his hands were up above his ear and he kept his back elbow up, with his bat at a much flatter angle. This year, he’s lowered his hands to shoulder height, with his elbow less elevated and his bat nearly vertical. All of that is completely new. When he goes into his load, he’s rotating his body away from the pitcher less and keeping his shoulders much more level. 2023 is on the left and 2022 is on the right:
Last year, you could pretty much see all of the 56 on Arozarena’s back; this year, you can only see a small part of the six.
Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find any information about Arozarena’s new stance. He was using it both in spring training and at the World Baseball Classic, so it’s clearly the result of offseason work. To my knowledge, no one has written an article about it. Andrea of Scout Girl Report was the only person I found who’s mentioned it on Twitter.
I don’t know whether Arozarena made these changes on his own, with outside coaches, or with Tampa Bay’s coaching staff, and I haven’t been able to track down a quote about what he hopes they’ll do for his swing. I assume that the desired effect of all these adjustments — deeper crouch, lower hands, less rotation pre-swing — is to make him quicker, starting out with the various parts of his body closer to where they need to be when he begins his swing. Shortening up in this way clearly hasn’t hurt his power. He even set a career exit velocity record last week by hitting a Levi Stoudt four-seamer 114.3 mph. It could also be that lowering his hands and staying more level were changes intended to help him elevate the ball, in which case they have been a soaring success.
So this is where I’m going to leave you. Randy Arozarena is off to a great start. He’s got a new swing. He’s studying scouting reports. He’s chasing less. Through some combination of these factors, he’s elevating the baseball, using the whole field, and hitting it very, very hard. Maybe that’s all we need to know.
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