Kyle Tucker needs to learn how to manage expectations better. He’s having a good season on paper: .261/.374/.447 with 18 home runs. He has a 131 wRC+, more walks than strikeouts, and 25 stolen bases in 27 attempts. His WAR, 3.9, is a tenth behind Kyle Schwarber, who’s getting MVP chatter, and two tenths ahead of Juan Soto.

But right now, the Cubs star is really going through it, and nobody is happy.

Tucker is 2-for-25 in his past seven games and just 8-for-54 in August. He hasn’t hit a home run in 31 days, and most incredibly, his last extra-base hit of any kind came in July. Tucker is taking it about as well as you’d expect; on Sunday, he didn’t run out a groundball to first base, and on Monday he slammed his helmet into the ground in frustration after flying out to end the eighth inning of a 7-0 loss to Milwaukee. Both incidents drew boos from the Wrigley Field fans. Read the rest of this entry »

What is the sound of a batter not getting hit by a pitch? I ask because as hit-by-pitch rates climbed over the years (and kept climbing), we writers have made lots of noise about them. In 2007, Steve Treder published an article called “The HBP Explosion (That Almost Nobody Seems to Have Noticed)” in The Hardball Times. After that, everybody noticed. We’ve seen articles about rising hit-by-pitch rates here at FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, the Baseball Research Journal, MLB.com, The Athletic, SportsNet, FiveThirtyEight, the Wall Street Journal — even the Clinical Journal of Sports Medicine. The venerable Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus has been writing about it (and writing about it and writing about) ever since he was the promising Rob Mains of the FanGraphs Community Blog. Tom Verducci wrote about the “hit-by-pitch epidemic” for Sports Illustrated in 2021, then wrote a different article with a nearly identical title just two months ago. There’s good reason for all this noise, and in order to show it to you, I’ll reproduce the graph Devan Fink made when he wrote about this topic in 2018:

Hit-by-pitches have been rising since the early 1980s, and despite a decline in the 1970s, you could argue that they’ve been rising ever since World War II. Devan’s graph ends in 2018, but the numbers kept on going up — for a while, anyway. Here’s a graph that shows the HBP rate in recent years. After a couple decades of sounding the HBP alarm, it’s time for us to unring that bell (which I assume, without having looked it up, is an easy thing to do):

Congratulations everybody, we’ve done it! We’ve ended the epidemic. The HBP rate has fallen in four of the last five seasons. It’s safe to leave your home again. You can enter a public space without fear that you’ll be bombarded with stray baseballs. Rob Mains can finally take a vacation. Tom Verducci can finally take a deep breath. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the commissioner’s power to dictate conversations about baseball, realignment possibilities, whether league distinctions still matter, how much they have to banter about, Victor Robles’s bat throw and suspension, the latest Tommy Pham flare-up, a Ketel Marte controversy, the Brewers, the Blue Jays, and what teams’ styles of play represent, a two-pitch inning, the promotion of Samuel Basallo and the Orioles’ future at catcher, Zack Wheeler’s injury and the Phillies’ unaccustomed uncertainty with Wheeler and Aaron Nola, Bryan Woo’s six-inning streak, Kyle Tucker’s slump, Ceddanne Rafaela’s positional splits, three Seymours, and Cody Ponce’s KBO dominance.

Audio intro: Guy Russo, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Philip Tapley and Michael Stokes, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Manfred’s comment
Link to Selig on realignment
Link to Nesbitt on realignment
Link to team travel mileage
Link to climate change article
Link to Robles suspension article
Link to Robles apology
Link to Pham article
Link to Piecoro on Ketel
Link to Nightengale on Ketel
Link to Perdomo on Ketel
Link to Ketel apology
Link to 1.0+ WAR Brewers
Link to Rosenthal on the Brewers
Link to Sam on the Brewers
Link to two-pitch-inning game
Link to MiLB two-pitch-inning
Link to Basallo promotion
Link to Basallo analysis
Link to rookie eligibility tweet
Link to rookie eligibility explainer
Link to Wheeler injury article
Link to team SP projections
Link to Woo article 1
Link to Woo article 2
Link to Tucker benching news
Link to Laurila on Rafaela
Link to Kruk comment
Link to knocker-up wiki
Link to three Seymours
Link to Bob promotion
Link to Bob Emergency
Link to Seymour Weiner news
Link to baby-name data

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The Boston Red Sox addressed their hole at first base over the weekend, coming to terms with free agent Nathaniel Lowe, formerly of the Washington Nationals. Lowe has struggled in 2025, hitting .216/.292/.373 for an 86 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR, his worst showing as a professional.

I don’t think that anyone — not even a member of Lowe’s family — would object too strongly to the declaration that Lowe has had an abysmal season. Lowe has never actually been a star, but with a .274/.359/.432 four-year run from 2021 to 2024, averaging 2.7 WAR per season, he had at least established himself in that Serviceable B+ First Baseman category. The end of Lowe’s time in Texas came quickly, and after a Silver Slugger in 2022, a Gold Glove and a World Series ring in 2023, and another solid offensive campaign in 2024, he found himself tradable for pitching help (lefty Robert Garcia) after the team acquired Jake Burger for reasons that still confound me. The Nats were making noise about being competitive in 2025, and there was a reasonable expectation that Lowe would improve the position without requiring a major long-term commitment. Read the rest of this entry »

At the All-Star break, Michael Harris II was heading for his worst season as a professional. His solid defensive skills couldn’t make up for his woeful 47 wRC+, a .210/.234/.317 batting line that had neither on-base skills nor power. Between a league-low walk rate and only six homers, Harris had “accumulated” -0.8 WAR, a shockingly low number for the Braves standout. Only two Rockies, Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia, had worse numbers.

Since the All-Star break, Michael Harris II has been one of the best hitters in baseball. In a mere 30 games, he’s racked up 2.2 WAR thanks almost entirely to his offensive prowess. He’s hitting a bruising .398/.413/.732, good for a 217 wRC+. That power outage? Forgotten. Harris has more home runs since the break (nine) than before it. Only two players in baseball – Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers – have a better wRC+ over that time span, or more WAR.

It can be hard to hold two opposing ideas in your head, particularly when those two ideas are “Michael Harris can’t hit” and “Michael Harris is one of the best hitters in baseball.” One purposefully silly way of saying it: Harris has accumulated 158% of his 2025 WAR in the second half of the season. Another wild thing about this ridiculous tear: Between when I filed this piece on Monday afternoon and when it was published on Tuesday, Harris went 4-for-4 with a home run and gained 16 points of wRC+ and 0.3 WAR. For the rest of this article, the numbers I use are updated through the end of play on Sunday.

It’s unquestionably true that almost anything can happen for 100 plate appearances, but this is stretching the limits of “almost anything.” You don’t run a 200 wRC+ for a month on accident. You don’t run a 47 wRC+ for half a season on accident either. I had to investigate. Read the rest of this entry »

Beginning last Thursday and continuing through the weekend, several key rehabbers made appearances in the upper levels of the minor leagues. A few might have a meaningful impact on playoff races, while others are scuffling. I dish on eight pitchers below. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s been a minute since our last chat, to say the least. Summer goings-on, especially a family vacation that ran Tuesday to Tuesday, did a number on my schedule here. Anyway, I’m back in Brooklyn and back on my b.s., so here we are.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I wrote about the season-threatening shoulder issues faced by Zack Wheeler and Josh Hader https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-put-the-seasons-of-zack-wheeler-a… since that went up, Wheeler had his blood clot removed by thrombolysis, but that doesn’t address the cause of the clot, and we’re waiting to hear from the Phillies as to whether he’ll pitch again in 2025.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: On Thursday and Friday of last week, I wrote about the Dodgers’ face-plant (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-have-face-planted/) and the Padres’ surge (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-revamped-padres-have-surged-into-first…), then of course the Dodgers swept the Padres to retake the NL West lead.

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow I should have the first installment of this year’s Cooperstown progress report; my plan is to follow up with a second one next week.

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »

Juan Soto is going to hit. This year, his first of many in Queens, his bat has come around nicely after a rough start; he’s slashing .251/.385/.495 for a 146 wRC+. That line is good for 10th in the majors, even if it’s a bit light by his standards. Offense is the main and most important part of Soto’s game, but it’s not the only thing. He has also played 120 games and 1,053 innings in right field for the Mets. On that end, he has struggled, and the most concerning part is related to his speed.

Soto has never been more than an average runner. Even in his early 20s, he peaked at only a 60th-percentile sprint speed, and from 2020-2024, he hovered around the mid-30s. Not the slowest in the league, but not speedy by any means. That’s not necessarily a problem; there are plenty of not great runners who are above average in the outfield. But when you’re near the bottom of the speed spectrum, you have very little room for error. Your reads, routes, and footwork have to be precise in pretty much every direction, and, well, Soto’s are not.

With -10 Outs Above Average and -10 Fielding Run Value, Soto has been the second-worst right fielder in baseball this season, behind only Nick Castellanos (-11). Overall, Soto falls into the first percentile by both OAA and FRV. He grades out a little better according to Defensive Runs Saved; with -3 runs, he is tied for 19th among the 25 players with at least 400 innings in right field. Read the rest of this entry »

Straight away, I wrote Jacob Lopez off. Even as he strung together three incredible starts in June — 32% strikeout rate, one run allowed over 19 innings — I couldn’t bring myself to think it actually meant anything. A 27-year-old lefty with hardly any prospect pedigree and so-so command throwing 90 mph dead zone fastballs? Small sample weirdness, nothing to see here.

It’s harder to dismiss Lopez these days. Once again, he’s on an infernal heater, this one even more scalding than the previous iteration. His last three starts: five innings, no runs, five strikeouts against the Diamondbacks; 7.2 innings, no runs, 10 strikeouts against the Nationals; seven innings, no runs, nine strikeouts against the Rays. That’s a 34.3% strikeout rate and a 0.98 FIP in a 19.2 inning sample.

Some of this is the quality of the opposition; the Rays and Nationals have been among the worst offenses in baseball over the last month or so. But the overall sample is getting uncomfortably significant. Over his 84.2 innings pitched this year, Lopez holds a 28.9% strikeout rate, eighth — eighth! — among all pitchers (minimum 80 innings pitched). He’s striking out more hitters than Paul Skenes, Jacob deGrom, and Spencer Strider. Read the rest of this entry »

Let me be the first to congratulate Logan Webb on his third-place NL Cy Young finish. It’s well deserved.

Right now, the award is Paul Skenes’ to lose, and it’s easy to see why. He’s big, he throws hard, he’s famous, and while he’s come back to Earth a little in the past three weeks, he genuinely hasn’t had a truly bad start since high school, if ever. Sometimes, playing for a last-place, small-market team is bad for one’s award chances, but if anything, the Pirates’ dog crap season has only perversely burnished Skenes’ reputation. He’d be a big fish in any pond, but my God, does he stand out here.

Believe it or not, there are two NL starters who came out of the weekend within half a win of Skenes on the WAR leaderboard: Webb and Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sánchez. The changeup is back, baby! Read the rest of this entry »