Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Carlos Correa’s contract limbo, the Pirates signing Rich Hill, the Rangers signing Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox signing Corey Kluber, the Blue Jays trading Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the Diamondbacks for Daulton Varsho, the Braves extending Sean Murphy, and the Phillies signing Craig Kimbrel. Then (39:51) they discuss at least one listener-nominated topic about each National League team that they had previously overlooked on the podcast in 2022 (including a Stat Blast at 1:12:53 about the decline in qualified hitters and hitters with 700-plus plate appearances), plus a Past Blast (1:44:29) from 1947.

Audio intro: Carl Smith, “I Overlooked an Orchid”
Audio outro: Harvey Danger, “I Missed It”

Link to article on “Dead Week”
Link to 2014 Correa injury
Link to Heyman on Correa
Link to Puma on Correa
Link to 2022 Correa injury
Link to MLBTR on Hill
Link to Hill quiz
Link to EW wiki on Hill
Link to MLBTR on Eovaldi
Link to FG SP depth chart
Link to MLBTR on Kluber
Link to MLBTR on Varsho
Link to MLBTR on Murphy
Link to MLBTR on Kimbrel
Link to story on Heredia swords
Link to Stathead on Heredia
Link to info on Heredia demotion
Link to info on Heredia promotion
Link to MLBTR on Heredia
Link to 2022 roster report
Link to Battery Power on Heredia
Link to Infinity Gauntlet story
Link to Brewers bell story
Link to Nootbar ASB story
Link to Nootbaar grinder origin
Link to Nootbaar grinder story
Link to Thompson/Kile story
Link to Laurila on Thompson
Link to info on Robertson demotion
Link to Robertson error
Link to Jeff Albert story
Link to story on Morel’s homer
Link to story on homer prediction
Link to fist-bump photo
Link to team attendance cost
Link to D-backs/Rays comparison
Link to Dodgers celebration
Link to Dodgers Reddit thread
Link to 2022 Clutch leaders
Link to Stathead on Flores split
Link to Doval story
Link to Doval pitch usage
Link to 2022 fastest pitches
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet
Link to teams with one qualifier
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to research on days off
Link to more research on days off
Link to load management article
Link to more on load management
Link to Nate Fisher story
Link to Reddit thread on Friedland
Link to Friedland’s LinkedIn
Link to Defector on Mets replays
Link to replay-challenge leaders
Link to replay success rates
Link to WaPo on Doolittle
Link to Washingtonian on Doolittle
Link to Musgrove trip website
Link to MLB.com on Musgrove
Link to Musgrove pitch
Link to Musgrove’s Polaroids
Link to Stathead on Phillies saves
Link to minor league leaderboard
Link to Pirates Reddit thread
Link to MLBTR on Kendall
Link to Greene’s pitch usage
Link to Ben Clemens on Greene
Link to BA on Greene’s fastball
Link to FG on Greene’s fastball
Link to MLB.com on Robinson
Link to EW on catcher bias
Link to MLB.com on Rox prospects
Link to 1947 story source
Link to Doby SABR bio
Link to SABR on integration
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Craig Wright on Doby
Link to Wright on Doby/Boudreau
Link to Nootbaar grinder
Link to Nootbar framed photo
Link to Nootbaar unframed photo
Link to Nootbar uninscribed ball
Link to Nootbar inscribed ball

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This month I had the honor of filling out a Hall of Fame ballot for the third time, and once again I put checkmarks next to 10 names. As I wrote in last year’s explanatory column, I am both “a Big-Hall guy” and willing (albeit begrudgingly) to look past steroid implications. As I see it, the story of baseball in this era can’t be told without Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, each of whom got my vote.

That the story could reasonably be told without some of the names I’ve chosen to checkmark is, admittedly, a valid argument against exercising the full allotment. This is something I’ve chewed on, but ultimately decided isn’t the way I want to approach my ballot. The Hall includes a plethora of players who weren’t the best of the best — Bruce Sutter was no Warren Spahn; Rick Ferrell no Johnny Bench — and while “X is in, so should Y” is imperfect logic, so too is “Y wasn’t a Bench or a Spahn, so isn’t worthy.” Determining who merits a plaque in Cooperstown is anything but an exact science.

My 2023 selections — asterisks indicating that I voted for the player last year — are Bobby Abreu*, Carlos Beltrán, Todd Helton*, Andruw Jones*, Jeff Kent, Manny Ramirez*, Alex Rodriguez*, Scott Rolen*, Gary Sheffield, and Billy Wagner*.

Beltrán is new to the ballot. More on him in a moment. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the latest Carlos Correa-related reporting, the Giants’ signings of Michael Conforto and Taylor Rogers, the hijinks potential of twin teammates Taylor and Tyler Rogers, the final results of the free-agent-contract over/under draft, their cautious optimism about the Angels (28:35), the Reds’ spending constraints (39:19), owners complaining about Steve Cohen, how it feels for fans when a team’s identity changes, and Trevor Bauer’s reinstatement from the suspended list (55:16). Also: a Past Blast from 1946 (1:10:15) and Stat Blasts (1:14:57) about the most distinct batters to come to the plate in one half-inning, the most Retrosheet offensive events by one player in one game, and (with guest Stat Blaster Zach Kram of The Ringer) the highest and lowest team payrolls adjusted for MLB salary inflation. (Hint: The highest is not the 2023 Mets.) Plus a postscript!

Audio intro: The Boo Radleys, “Twinside”
Audio outro: Alvarado Road Show, “Baseball Stops for Christmas”

Link to Passan on Correa
Link to The Athletic on Correa
Link to Grant on Correa
Link to Gausman tweet
Link to Verducci on Correa
Link to Correa’s house-hunting
Link to details on Correa’s leg
Link to Ben C. on Giants signings
Link to Drellich on Cohen
Link to Ben L. on long contracts
Link to Reds spending tweet
Link to Alex Eisert on Reds moves
Link to WFAN Correa call
Link to KNBR Correa calls
Link to fan self-esteem study
Link to Jake Mailhot on Drury
Link to EW competitions/drafts
Link to ESPN on Bauer
Link to WaPo on Bauer
Link to L.A. Times on Bauer
Link to 1946 story source
Link to “defensive spectrum” wiki
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Stat Blast info
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to current team payrolls
Link to inflation-adjusted payrolls
Link to 2018 Craig Edwards post
Link to SIS on the Yankees’ defense
Link to team DRS rankings
Link to Langs tweet
Link to eclipse game box score
Link to MLBTR on Varsho
Link to outfield OAA leaders

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Hey, they had the money. After the sensational done-not-done saga that ended with Carlos Correa signing with the New York Mets, the Giants spent the rest of the week signing two of the top remaining free agents on the market. They added Michael Conforto on a two-year, $36 million deal that includes an opt out after the first year, then signed Taylor Rogers to a three-year, $33 million deal after that.

I ranked Rogers 19th among this winter’s crop of free agents, so let’s start with him. To me, he’s one of the best handful of relievers in the game. I think this was a great pickup for the Giants — and would have been a great pickup for any team in baseball given the contract he got. Rogers spent the first six years of his major league career with the Twins and was reliably excellent, accruing a cumulative 3.15 ERA and 3.01 FIP. That earned him a spot on AJ Preller’s must-trade-for list; the Padres acquired him last offseason to head a closer-by-committee situation in San Diego.

He split time between the Padres and Twins last year – he was traded in the Josh Hader deal at the deadline – and had his worst season as a pro. He posted a 4.76 ERA, easily his worst mark and in a year where league-wide offense declined markedly. It looks to me mostly like bad luck, though; he still posted a 3.31 FIP, but largely got BABIP’ed (.327) and sequenced (63.5 LOB%, compared to a league average mark of 72.6%) to death. He struck out more than 30% of opposing batters while walking just under 7%, and gave up home runs at roughly the same clip he always had. The biggest cause for concern, in my eyes, is that he gave up a raft of hard contact in Milwaukee, but given that he only threw 23 innings there, I’d put it in the too-small-of-a-sample-to-matter bucket. Read the rest of this entry »

This holiday season, everybody wants a new catcher. Between free agency and the trade market, over a third of the league’s teams have added to their catcher mix this offseason, with most of those moves coming in the last few weeks. Catchers are finding new homes so fast that yesterday, my colleague Leo Morgenstern covered the Mets signing Omar Narváez and dealing James McCann to Baltimore, and Austin Hedges inking a one-year deal with Pittsburgh – and then two more backstops signed that afternoon. In Cincinnati, the Reds announced an agreement with Curt Casali (as well as first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers), designating Mike Moustakas for assignment in the process. And elsewhere in the NL Central, former Red and Tiger Tucker Barnhart got set to continue his tour of the teams closest to his home city of Indianapolis, joining the Chicago Cubs on a two-year, $6.5 million contract with a player option after the coming season. The two-time Gold Glover will pair with Yan Gomes to form a catching platoon after the Cubs lost three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to the rival Cardinals in free agency.

Barnhart did well to secure himself a two-year guarantee with the player option – of the eight free agent catchers who have signed major league deals this offseason, Contreras (five years), Christian Vázquez (three), Narváez (two), and Barnhart have earned multi-year commitments. Those other three are much more significant adds, as is reflected in their significantly higher total contract values. But Barnhart may have had extra motivation to lock down a second year – with a couple of months over eight years of service, he heads into this contract within reach of the 10-year service threshold that the Players Association calls the “holy grail for players.” Of course, while the money is guaranteed, the service time isn’t, but if Barnhart can remain healthy and productive enough to reach 10 years of service, his MLB pension will fully vest and he will notch a coveted milestone. The option adds another layer of player friendliness – if Barnhart bounces back from a down year in 2022, he’ll have a shot to test free agency again next winter, when, to be fair, the catcher market may once again be busy. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday, the Reds broke the silence hanging over their quiet offseason with three notable moves. The club inked both former Rookie of the Year Wil Myers and veteran backstop Curt Casali to one-year deals with mutual options. The former is guaranteed $7.5 million; the latter will take home at least $3.25 million. To make room for Casali, the Reds DFA’d Mike Moustakas, who was heading into the last season of a four-year, $64 million contract he signed prior to 2020.

After blowing it up when their previous rebuild resulted in merely a Wild Card contender, Cincinnati’s current reconstruction period is entering just its second season; at best, the team has an outside shot at the playoffs. That said, these moves don’t strike me as pure roster-filler or eye-toward-July transactions. Instead, they make real sense as supplements to a young team, potentially aiding in the development of up-and-comers in concrete ways. Read the rest of this entry »

There have been a lot of transactions this past week. There’s been a lot of drama, too, involving a top free agent, a medical issue, and boatloads of cash. The long weekend is just around the corner. It’s been an exhausting year, and we’d all like to get on with our lives. Between relaxing on the sofa and reading up on Drew Rucinski, deciding on which is the more appealing option doesn’t seem like a difficult task.

Which, fine, I understand. My livelihood isn’t affected by page views, so we’re cool here. But Rucinski isn’t just some random starter the Athletics chose as their annual innings-eater. When he last appeared in a major league game, he was a lackluster middle reliever for the Marlins. Since then, he’s undergone quite the transformation. Four years later, there’s an argument to be made that he was the best starting pitcher during his time in Korea. That’s a testament to how much he’s improved, in terms of stuff, command, and durability. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2018 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Content warning: This piece contains details about alleged domestic violence and sexual harassment. The content may be difficult to read and emotionally upsetting.

In the eyes of many, Omar Vizquel was the successor to Ozzie Smith when it came to dazzling defense. Thanks to the increased prevalence of highlight footage on the internet and on cable shows such as ESPN’s SportsCenter and Baseball Tonight, the diminutive Venezuelan shortstop’s barehanded grabs, diving stops, and daily acrobatics were seen by far more viewers than Smith’s ever were. Vizquel made up for having a less-than-prototypically-strong arm with incredibly soft hands and a knack for advantageous positioning. Such was the perception of his prowess at the position that he took home 11 Gold Gloves, more than any shortstop this side of Smith, who won 13.

Vizquel’s offense was at least superficially akin to Smith’s: He was a singles-slapping switch-hitter in lineups full of bigger bats and, at his best, a capable table-setter who got on base often enough to score 80, 90, or even 100 runs in some seasons. His ability to move the runner over with a sacrifice bunt or a productive out delighted purists, and he could steal a base, too. While he lacked power, he dealt in volume, piling up more hits (2,877) than all but four players who spent the majority of their careers at shortstop and are now in the Hall of Fame: Derek Jeter (3,465), Honus Wagner (3,420), Cal Ripken Jr. (3,184), and Robin Yount (3,142). Vizquel is second only to Jeter using the strict as-shortstop splits, which we don’t have for Wagner (though we do know the Flying Dutchman spent 31% of his defensive innings at other positions). During his 11-year run in Cleveland (1994–2004), Vizquel helped his team to six playoff appearances and two pennants.

To some, that has made Vizquel an easy call for the Hall of Fame, but by WAR and JAWS, his case isn’t nearly as strong as it is on the traditional merits. Even before he reached the ballot, his candidacy had become a point of friction between old-school and new-school thinkers, as though he were this generation’s Jack Morris. For the first three years of his candidacy, it appeared as though he was well on his way to Cooperstown nonetheless, with showings of 37.0% in 2018, 42.8% in ’19, and 52.6% in ’20. Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Smith is a left-handed pitching prospect in the Los Angeles Angels system. Taken in the 18th round of the 2019 draft as a senior out of Princeton University, he is, and always has been, an intellectual player. In fact, he spends time in the offseason tutoring high schoolers preparing for the SAT, a rather unorthodox job for a minor league player. After a 25.1-inning rookie ball debut his draft year, he lost out on a key developmental season due to the pandemic but came prepared for the 2021 season with increased velocity and a hunger to perform.

That year, Smith threw 129.1 innings across four different levels. A workload like that in your first full professional season is extremely uncommon. Indeed, coming off the lost 2020 campaign, many pitchers decreased their workloads. For that reason, Smith has had a unique path. His performance was good enough to rise all the way up to Triple-A in his first full season, but his adjustment to the Pacific Coast League has been a work in progress. I spoke to him about that adjustment, its impact on his game, and his repertoire earlier this month.

…

Esteban Rivera: What does your pitch mix look like right now, and how has it changed since rookie ball?

Ryan Smith: “I throw a four-seamer with slightly above-average vertical break, but the velo range has been all over the place in pro ball. In rookie ball, the average was around 92 with a couple of outings in the 95-96 range. 2021 it was up to 97-98 in spring, but mostly sat 92-95 the first couple of months, then dropped down to 91-94 in the second half. This past year, my carry was down a bit playing mostly at high altitude, and my velo was 91-93. I’m hoping for it to come back after a velo program I’m on for the winter. I think it was down after the high workload in 2021 after no innings in 2020.” Read the rest of this entry »