An entire offseason’s worth of managerial reshuffling took place early Monday afternoon, as the most coveted managerial role was filled and the most coveted managerial candidate found a home — just not how you’d think.

The Guardians first announced the hiring of Mariners bullpen coach and golden-voiced baritone Stephen Vogt. Shortly thereafter, news broke that the Cubs were hiring outgoing Brewers manager Craig Counsell, despite already having David Ross under contract for that position. Counsell had been expected to follow former Brewers baseball ops boss David Stearns to the Mets, but when he landed in Chicago, the Mets unveiled Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza as their new manager.

Counsell, regarded as one of the top skippers in the sport, has reset the market for manager salaries with a five-year, $40 million contract. A free agent after his Brewers contract expired, he interviewed with both New York and Cleveland and was regarded as both teams’ top choice. When he made his unexpected switch to Chicago, that made the other teams’ decisions easier, and thus followed the busy afternoon on the coaching carousel. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether whether they’d watch the winning team celebrate if they lost the World Series, then (17:09) discuss a trio of managerial moves (the Cubs poaching Craig Counsell from the Brewers, the Guardians hiring Stephen Vogt, and the Mets hiring Carlos Mendoza), the Marlins hiring the Rays’ GM, and what the Padres declining Michael Wacha’s option says about a Juan Soto trade, plus (1:04:30) some consideration of whether an-season tournament like the NBA’s makes sense for MLB and (1:23:27) a few follow-ups.

Audio intro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to FB thread
Link to Patek photo
Link to Sam on Kershaw
Link to Sad Keanu meme
Link to MLBTR on Counsell
Link to story about Cubs tampering
Link to story on Selig Rule
Link to ESPN on Vogt
Link to Aaron on journeymanagers
Link to ESPN on Mendoza
Link to Passan tweet about salaries
Link to MLBTR on Wacha’s option
Link to Becker’s tweet about Wacha
Link to MLBTR on Bendix
Link to Bendix at SB Nation
Link to in-season tournament wiki
Link to in-season tournament explainer
Link to story on load management
Link to Attanasio comment
Link to Vogt’s wiki
Link to EW on Vogt’s wiki
Link to Correa on Maldonado
Link to Ben on player-value estimates
Link to qualifying offers
Link to qualifying-offer history

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The Dodgers provided some clarity with regards to their decimated rotation on Friday, though perhaps not in the most reassuring manner. First, the team reportedly declined Lance Lynn’s $18 million option, and then Clayton Kershaw announced via Instagram that he had undergone shoulder surgery that morning, with hopes of a return to play “at some point next summer.” As if that didn’t raise enough questions, the three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer did nothing to tip his hand regarding whether he’d seek a return to the Dodgers.

When we last saw the 35-year-old Kershaw in action, he was leaving the mound after retiring just one of the eight Diamondbacks he faced in the Division Series opener. Because the Dodgers were swept in the best-of-five series, he didn’t get a chance to take another turn, though manager Dave Roberts had planned to send him out for Game 4 had the team extended the series. Asked in the immediate aftermath of the team’s elimination what would come next for him, Kershaw responded cryptically, saying, “I don’t know how to answer that right now.”

Kershaw’s inability to articulate his plans at the time was understandable, in part because for the third year in a row he was headed towards free agency, with a chance to leave the only organization he’s known since being drafted out of Highland Park High School in Dallas in 2006. In the past two winters, he had given some consideration to pitching closer to home with the Rangers, but chose to return to the Dodgers after the 2021 season, signing a one-year, $17 million contract after the lockout ended in March ’22, and then re-upping for one year and $20 million last December. Though he missed the 2021 postseason due to forearm discomfort, Kershaw didn’t have any health-related question marks hanging over his head by the time he re-signed either of those deals. This time, he’s in uncharted territory. Read the rest of this entry »

As the professional baseball career of Nelson Cruz flashes before my eyes, no single image emerges to define his legacy. He served as a leader in the clubhouse, was devoted to off-the-field humanitarian efforts, proudly represented his Dominican homeland, consistently hit the baseball so hard that he earned the nickname Boomstick, and did all of it at a high level for more years than any aging curve would have dared to predict.

Last week, after 19 seasons in majors, Cruz announced his retirement on The Adam Jones Podcast. He also addressed the second-most important topic pertaining to his career: the origin of his nickname. Back in 2009, while playing as himself in a video game for some sort of promo event, Cruz hit a home run and referred to his bat as the Boomstick. The name circulated amongst fans and stuck. Read the rest of this entry »

In the five days between the World Series and the start of free agency, there’s plenty of paperwork to do — exercising or declining options, sorting out 40-man roster spots, that sort of thing — before a team starts the offseason in earnest. Sometimes, that shuffling reveals a landing spot for a player who was going to be turned loose anyway, and we get a trade.

Mark Canha, your friendly neighborhood on-base machine, is headed from Milwaukee to Detroit, with 25-year-old Double-A reliever Blake Holub headed in the opposite direction. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Rice led all New York Yankees minor leaguers with a 183 wRC+ this past season. Given the degree to which he’s flown under most prospect radar, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for you to read those words and ask, “Who the heck is Ben Rice?“

Here is a snapshot answer to that question:

A 24-year-old left-handed-hitting catcher, Rice grew up in Massachusetts and went on to attend Dartmouth College, from where the Yankees selected him in the 12th round of the 2021 draft. His first full professional season was solid but not especially notable; in 68 games with Low-A Tampa, he logged an .810 OPS and went deep nine times. This year was particularly notable. Playing at three levels — the majority of his games were at Double-A Somerset — he slashed .324/.434/.615 with 20 home runs in 332 plate appearances.

My own knowledge of Rice was admittedly next to nil prior to talking him in Portland, Maine in early September. Somerset broadcaster Steven Cusumano suggested Rice as a deserving interview subject, and as circumstances would have it, that conversation came moments later. Outside of having been told that the backstop had been tearing up the Eastern League — I later saw that his OPS was north of 1.000 — I basically went in blind.

I asked the erstwhile psychology major about his breakout. More specifically, why was he was enjoying such a boffo season with the bat? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the difficulty of watching Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the Japan Series, the last time an MLB pitcher threw as many as 138 pitches in a game, their hopes for Joey Votto’s next act, and the Brewers trading Mark Canha to the Tigers, then (32:13) answer listener emails about Silver Slugging Gold Glovers, pitching a perfect game in a time loop, whether the Rockies will win a championship before one of the next expansion teams does, a playoff lottery system, and how players could convince owners to let them hold trophies first, plus Stat Blasts (1:22:25) about Jose Altuve and the best pound-for-pound (and inch-for-inch) players and Frank Howard-esque all-offense players.

Audio intro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Yamamoto game story
Link to Yamamoto K montage
Link to info on Japan Series streaming
Link to info on the Curse of the Colonel
Link to EW on the Curse of the Colonel
Link to Jack Moore’s tweet
Link to 138-pitch regular-season starts
Link to 138-pitch postseason starts
Link to MLBTR on Votto
Link to 2016 Votto quote
Link to 2023 Votto profile
Link to MLBTR on Canha
Link to MLBTR on Rodriguez
Link to Silver Slugger/Gold Glove list
Link to Silver Slugger/Gold Glove sheet
Link to Chris Gilligan’s FG post
Link to Sam on expansion teams
Link to Manfred on expansion
Link to story on owners and trophies
Link to Commissioner’s Trophy wiki
Link to Topps Now
Link to Altuve/Bregman photo
Link to heights/weights sheet
Link to Frank Howard obit
Link to Howard +200/-200 club
Link to listener emails database

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about which MLB franchise will win its first championship next, the postseason “second-chance issue,” Clayton Kershaw’s shoulder surgery and other Dodgers decisions, a change in Astros primary catchers, the Braves re-signing Joe Jiménez, and Nelson Cruz’s career and retirement, then (1:05:20) discuss the stories they’re most interested in following this winter.

Audio intro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Chris Gilligan’s FG post
Link to preseason prediction scores
Link to Sheehan on second chances
Link to MLBTR on Kershaw
Link to MLBTR on Jiménez
Link to Jiménez press release
Link to MLBTR on Lynn
Link to MLBTR on Muncy
Link to Jay Jaffe on Muncy
Link to MLBTR on Diaz
Link to MLBTR on Cruz
Link to 2020 EW episode on Cruz
Link to Cruz retirement tour tweet
Link to WAR from age 28 on
Link to HoF WAR from age 28 on
Link to offseason schedule FG post
Link to MLBTR on Counsell
Link to Law’s top 50 FA list
Link to Sam on pitch-clock exceptions
Link to pitch-clock-exceptions rule
Link to postseason time of game
Link to article on streaming NPB
Link to article on Yamamoto
Link to info on the Curse of the Colonel
Link to EW on the Curse of the Colonel

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On Wednesday night, the Rangers scratched their names off of one of baseball’s most undesirable lists: the franchises that had never in their history won a World Series. Major League Baseball is known for its historical championship parity; the sport’s 23 seasons without a repeat champion is the longest streak in the four major American sports leagues, and the Rangers became the ninth unique World Series champion in the last 10 years. But heading into Wednesday’s Game 5, six of the 30 MLB clubs — a full 20% — had never reached the promised land. On Thursday morning, it was down to five: the Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Rockies, and Rays. With the Rangers happy to leave that club, who should we expect to be the next to follow?

Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six potential free agents and Lance Lynn; the Dodgers declined his $18 million club option earlier today. This group includes players with a mix of options or opt-outs. Realistically, not all of these guys will hit the open market. But what if they do? Won’t you be glad to have guessed their new contracts? Read the rest of this entry »