One morning, about two weeks ago, a YouTube video made me feel like I was asleep at the wheel. Ethan Moore, a former analyst with the Rockies and the Reds, had posted a video titled “Every Baseball Analyst is Missing Something Important.” I’d like to consider myself a baseball analyst, and it sounded like I might be missing something important. And so I clicked to see what that might be.

Over the span of 36 minutes, Ethan broke down a total of three pitches, all of which were thrown by Nolan McLean to Pete Crow-Armstrong in the second inning of a late September game between the Mets and Cubs. He used this plate appearance to illustrate his central claim: There is so much happening in the handful of milliseconds between the release of the ball and the swing of a bat, and that the psychology of the hitter — conscious thoughts, subconscious expectations, muscle memories — dictates the decision of when to swing, and where, and how hard. As Ethan put it, “When the ball is in the air, on the way to the plate, what is actually happening in the mind and the subconscious brain of the hitter?”

It reminded me of another video I saw a bit earlier in the spring. It featured Vinnie Pasquantino, before he captained Team Italy in the WBC, wearing a microphone during a live batting practice session against his Royals teammate Steven Zobac. It’s meant to be a short and funny clip, and it is both of those things, but I just kept thinking about Pasquantino’s subconscious. Read the rest of this entry »

In the new season’s early going, the challenge system has been all the rage across the majors. If you don’t believe me, you can read ESPN’s coverage of it, or The Athletic’s, or MLB.com’s, or … well, you get the idea. The coverage has been extensive and positive, and I couldn’t agree with its enthusiasm more. I love the new system, and I’m also really excited to think about challenges in general. There are so many fun angles to consider. So here’s the math nerd’s take on what challenges have looked like so far, and what I’m most interested to learn about them moving forward.

How I’m Thinking About Challenges
Every time a strike or ball is called, there’s an opportunity for a challenge, at least so long as the relevant team has one remaining. That makes it easy to measure the prospective value of a challenge on any given pitch: It’s worth however much flipping the result of that particular pitch would change the game situation in the challenging player’s favor. All we have to do is figure out how many runs were likely to score in the inning in each case and compare the two. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Joey Wiemer, Colt Emerson’s contract, the concept of “sticking at shortstop,” and pre-arbitration (and pre-debut) extension trends, then (29:11) answer listener emails about A.J. Preller trading himself, Harrison Bader and the press conference threshold, plotting to prevent a switch-hitter from batting from both sides, no-selling a World Series ring ceremony, giveaway promotions at every game, a Craig Kimbrel PitchCom hypothesis, the top five MLB owners, pitch-count limits in a World Series perfect game bid, technical fouls in baseball, the aesthetic appeal of platooning, and lifetime .500 franchises.

Audio intro: Garrett Krohn, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Baumann on Wiemer
Link to MLB.com on Wiemer
Link to FG combined WAR leaderboard
Link to “small sample” song
Link to Voros’ Law
Link to “WDJDD?” (short)
Link to “WDJDD?” (long)
Link to MLBTR on Emerson
Link to Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense
Link to Passan tweet about Emerson
Link to FG post on Pratt
Link to Sam on extensions
Link to Bader story
Link to Seinfeld “sponge-worthy” clips
Link to Kiri on promotions
Link to “Things Fitting Perfectly Into Other Things”
Link to Meg on the baseball penalty box
Link to Diamondbacks bullpen story
Link to “Maddux” stat
Link to Ben on ex-player execs
Link to franchise W-L records
Link to listener emails database

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Over the past few years, one thought has kept bouncing around in my mind: “I must be taking crazy pills.” Don’t run off to the comments to complain about this post getting political, because that’s not the point I’m trying to make. Over the past few years, longstanding institutions and norms have come crashing down without so much as a peep from the people charged with defending them. Whether you think that’s good or not, it’s a matter of historical fact.

Therefore, we live in disconcerting times. COVID, AI, mass media consolidation, man’s inhumanity to man… it messes with one’s sense of order in the universe. We’re rapidly approaching an era in which battery tech and solar power actually make electricity too cheap to meter, but NATO and the Washington Post might not exist by the time we get there.

It’s unsettling. There have been times when I’ve looked around and found that the most logical explanation is that I am, genuinely, being slipped crazy pills without my knowledge. Because surely this must make sense to someone. Read the rest of this entry »

Cody Ponce left his first start on a cart with a trainer.

Ponce collapsed in considerable pain Monday after making an awkward attempt to field a grounder in the third inning against the Rockies. He appeared to twist his right knee in a direction it’s not meant to go. He stood and limped to the cart on his own before exiting. Blue Jays’ manager John Schneider said after the game that Ponce will get an MRI.

The injury is an unfortunate setback for Ponce, who was making his first start in the majors since 2021. He was perhaps the most anticipated in a quartet of free agent pitchers who signed out of the KBO or NPB this winter. I’d already planned to write about each of them, leading with Ponce for the reasons he displayed before the injury. And while I don’t want to overreact to one start, I think there are interesting takeaways from each that could inform the shape of their respective seasons to come. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Chase DeLauter got an odd start to his major league career last fall — and an inauspicious one, at that — when he became the sixth player to debut in a postseason game before playing in a regular season one. The Guardians’ rookie right fielder has fared much better in the early stages of his first regular season in the majors, going on a home run binge that made a bit of history.

Facing the Mariners in Seattle on Opening Day last Thursday, the 24-year-old DeLauter started things off by homering in his first plate appearance, launching a towering 358-foot solo shot off Logan Gilbert. It was the first Cleveland run of the season, and though at least 140 players in AL/NL history have homered in their first career at-bat, in the ninth inning he joined a much more exclusive club. With the Guardians ahead 5-4, DeLauter hammered a 422-foot solo home run off Cooper Criswell, helping to seal the victory and becoming just the sixth player to homer twice in his regular season debut:

Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers and shortstop prospect Cooper Pratt are reportedly close to terms on an eight-year extension. The deal would guarantee Pratt $50.75 million over the life of the deal, and there are also two club options worth about $15 million apiece. As it’s a major league contract, Pratt must be added to Milwaukee’s 40-man roster. A corresponding move to make the terms work has not yet been announced.

While extensions for prospects who have yet to debut are becoming more common, Pratt’s is a little unusual. These tend to either be large deals to consensus top prospects, often with the carrot of a ticket to the Opening Day roster as a sort of signing bonus, or smaller sums for enticing but flawed farmhands. The eight-year, $82 million extension Milwaukee inked with Jackson Chourio prior to the 2024 season is a good example of the former (as is the eight-year, $95 million pact the Mariners reportedly just struck with Colt Emerson), while the six-year, $25 million pacts Seattle signed with Evan White and Philadelphia with Scott Kingery cover the latter. Pratt’s deal doesn’t fit cleanly in either category. It’s a pretty good chunk of change for a player who evaluators generally don’t see as a future star, and it’s also not a pay-for-play deal, as Pratt will likely remain at Triple-A after signing.

Pratt was taken in the sixth round of the 2023 draft from Magnolia Heights High School in Mississippi. Eric ranked him 25th on the Draft Board that year, but his $1.35 signing bonus was commensurate with more of a second-round talent. As you’d expect for a prospect in consideration for this kind of contract, he’s performed well in pro ball. After a successful cameo on the complex in his draft season, Pratt notched a 132 wRC+ at Low-A as a 19-year-old, with strong contact skills and a low walk rate. He spent all of 2025 at Double-A, where he played a clean shortstop and hit .238/.343/.348, good for a 107 wRC+. He also dropped his strikeout rate to 15.2%, impressive for a 20-year-old at that level. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of the 2026 regular season.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: It’s a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn. Alas, we have no day baseball to accompany this chat; when I’m commissioner, I will mandate a minimum of one day game for every day through at least the first 30 days of the season.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ve got a thing in the pipeline about Chase DeLauter’s hot start, which should go up sometime while we’re chatting.

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I wrote about the Giants’ season-opening offensive futility https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-giants-opened-the-season-by-making-som…, and on Friday I wrote about Jackson Chourio’s injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scratch-that-jackson-chourio-lands-on-the-…

12:04

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show….

Read the rest of this entry »

Luke Stevenson was quoted earlier this month when I wrote about how Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson profile as Seattle Aces in the Making. My spring training conversation with the 21-year-old backstop also included what he had to say about his own skill set, which in many respects it is similar to what Cal Raleigh’s was in the minors. Stevenson’s FanGraphs scouting report, which included mention of the Mariners’ All-Star slugger, described him as “a power-hitting catcher with strong receiving skills.” Drafted 35th overall last year out of the University of North Carolina, he currently ranks as the eighth-best prospect in the Seattle system, with a 45 FV.

Brendan Gawlowski did the write-ups on our Mariners list, and he sees the potential for more from Stevenson. As Brendan put it, “If there is any jump in Stevenson’s throwing ability or bat-to-ball as he develops, he’ll climb into that [50] tier on subsequent lists.” The Raleigh comparison fits here, as well. Described as having a “power-and-OBP-over-hit profile,” Big Dumper ranked seventh in the system with a 45 FV when he reached the majors in July 2021 at age 24.

Stevenson didn’t shy away from the comp when I brought up their early-career similarities.

“I would love to get compared to him,” said the former Tar Heel, who debuted professionally with Low-A Modesto last summer and slashed .280/.460/.400 over 100 plate appearances “He’s unbelievable. Being able to work with him here in camp has been awesome, and super helpful. What he does… I mean, I definitely would like my game to resemble his.”

My mention of the power-over-hit element of his profile elicited a bit of pushback, but his response was largely a validation of Brendan’s report. Read the rest of this entry »