Last week, the Mets flexed their muscles by taking two out of three from the Dodgers — the majors’ top team by won-loss record, run differential, and most other measures — at Citi Field. On Wednesday morning they awoke to a new reality. Not only were they tied for first place in the National League East with the Braves, but they had to place Max Scherzer on the injured list due to an oblique injury on his left side for the second time this season; later that day, they announced that Starling Marte had suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right middle finger as well. The confluence may not rate as a crisis in Queens, but playoff races have certainly turned on less.

The Braves’ claim on a share of first place marked the first time since April 11 — and just the second time all season — that the Mets did not have sole possession of the division lead. By the day’s end, however, the Mets again had the top spot to themselves thanks to 5-1 and 10-0 poundings of the Pirates in Pittsburgh, running their record to 87-51, while the Braves beat the A’s to improve to 86-51.

As for Scherzer, with a chance to notch his 200th career win, the 38-year-old righty left Saturday’s start against the Nationals after just five innings, 67 pitches, and one run allowed. Following the final out of the inning — during which he got an assist on a routine groundout by Ildemaro Vargas — Scherzer motioned to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner to follow him into the dugout tunnel, then gave way to reliever Tommy Hunter to start the sixth. Read the rest of this entry »

Every year, a huge throng of pitchers changes teams at the trade deadline. It happens for obvious reasons: teams with postseason aspirations and second-division pitching staffs try to augment their squad, juggernauts shore up their bullpen, or any of several variations on those themes. For the most part, it’s a simple re-allocation of good pitching: teams that don’t need it this year trade pitchers to teams that do, and reap prospects or otherwise interesting players in return.

Sometimes, though, teams make trades for a slightly different reason. Pitchers aren’t static; you can’t call someone up on the phone and trade for a 3.40 ERA, or 2.4 WAR per 200 innings pitched, or anything of the sort. You trade for a pitcher, and as we detail frequently in the electronic pages of FanGraphs, pitchers change the way they approach their craft all the time. They might take a new approach, or learn a new pitch, or switch roles. Learning a new pitch isn’t practical in the heat of a playoff chase, but changing the allocation of existing pitches is far easier. Let’s take a look at two starting pitchers who have changed their pitch mix significantly since being traded at the deadline, as well as two others who have made smaller changes. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time that the prophecy foretold has now arrived.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Such a cruel question to pose an O’s fan.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: If given the choice, I’d marginally take Julio

12:03

Dan Szymborski: young catchers always have an element of scary

12:03

Dan Szymborski: even terrific ones

Read the rest of this entry »

Most people who change employers and job titles go through an interview process, and Chris Valaika was no exception. A former big league infielder who’d been serving as the assistant hitting coach for the Chicago Cubs, and before that as their minor league hitting coordinator, he was carefully vetted before being hired as the hitting coach of the Cleveland Guardians last winter. What was that process like? He explained in an interview that was conducted earlier this summer.

———

David Laurila: You were hired by the Guardians last November. How did that come about?

Chris Valaika: “The interview process started a week or so after the season ended. I talked to [President of Baseball Operations] Chris Antonetti and then to [General Manager] Mike Chernoff. The one that really facilitated the process was Alex Eckelman, our director of hitting. We did phone to start and then Zoom with a couple of different groups. Tito [Terry Francona] was on one of them. There were some of our advance guys. There were Chris and Cherny. I also did an in-person interview with a couple of different groups. I talked to the player development department. I also worked with a hitter. I went through the whole gamut.”

Laurila: Can you elaborate on “worked with a hitter?”

Valiaka: “It was a mock. We went through the whole process of… basically, it was a workup of what I saw in the swing, and how I would address swing changes and approach.”

Laurila: This was from video?

Valaika: “Yes. And we did a mock of an in-person, as well — how I would interact in the cage to address certain things — which was to see my coaching voice, how I delivered information. We also went through advance reports and did a mock hitters meeting.

“With the hitter breakdown, it was basically me giving my 10,000-foot view of him approach-wise, bio-mechanically, things that I saw in the swing, and again, how I would address them.”

Laurila: Who was the hitter, and what did you see? Read the rest of this entry »

Unionizing a workplace isn’t as simple as buying a bullhorn and stamping out some buttons, though both are obviously essential steps in the process. It requires huge amounts of organizing effort, cajoling, and, unfortunately, paperwork.

Last week, the MLBPA announced that it had sent out authorization cards to thousands of minor league players; if a majority of players give the union consent to negotiate on their behalf, federal labor law will require MLB to negotiate collectively with those players over pay and working conditions. Tuesday, the MLBPA announced that a majority of minor league players had signed and returned those cards, and sent a letter to the league asking for recognition.

The hardest thing to do in sports is hit a baseball, but following the internecine contours of collective bargaining procedure has to be up there on the list. So let’s trace out the next few steps in a process that will likely take months, if not years, to complete. And since minor league ballplayers are merely one of many groups undertaking high-profile unionization efforts these days, knowing how this works might help you impress people the next time, say, the Starbucks union comes up at a party. (I need to start going to cooler parties.) Read the rest of this entry »

While Dylan Cease was chasing a no-hitter and Aaron Judge was homering in three straight games, Shohei Ohtani enhanced his own cases for the AL Cy Young and MVP awards. On Saturday, he threw eight innings of one-run ball against the Astros in a game that the Angels won in 12 innings, continuing his dominance of the AL West leaders. On Monday, he homered twice and drove in three runs in a 10–0 rout of Detroit, running his totals to five homers, 10 RBIs, and a .414/.469/1.000 line in a seven-game span against the Blue Jays, Yankees, Astros, and Tigers (oh my!). Much to Tungsten Arm O’Doyle’s chagrin, the Angels even went 5–2 in those games.

A year after winning the AL MVP award for his unprecedented wire-to-wire excellence both as a pitcher and a designated hitter, Ohtani has continued to thrive in both contexts. But where he didn’t get any attention when it came to the 2021 Cy Young race, this season, he’s pitched his way into the picture.

Saturday’s start was Ohtani’s 23rd of the season, matching last year’s total, and he’s now at 136 innings, topping the 130.1 he threw in ’21. His three true outcome peripherals have improved markedly, to the point that he’s shaved nearly a full run off his FIP relative to last season:

At this writing, with 136 innings in the Angels’ 136 games, Ohtani is officially qualified for the ERA title, though that won’t be the case after Wednesday night, at least until his number comes up again. In any event, it’s worth pointing out that he has the AL’s highest strikeout rate and is one-tenth of a percentage point behind Shane McClanahan for the K-BB% lead. Meanwhile, he also has the league’s second-lowest FIP, behind only Kevin Gausman’s 2.13. Read the rest of this entry »

Ty Madden has established himself as one of the top pitching prospects in the Detroit Tigers system. Drafted 32nd overall last year out of the University of Texas, the 22-year-old right-hander has a 2.92 ERA to go with 119 strikeouts and just 88 hits allowed in 114 innings between High-A West Michigan and Double-A Erie. Moreover, he’s been especially impressive since earning an early-August promotion. Over his last four starts, Madden has fanned 29 Eastern League batters while surrendering just three runs in 22-and-a-third innings.

Earlier this summer, I asked Madden how much the organization’s analytics-driven pitching program has impacted his development.

“I’ve definitely learned a lot since coming to pro ball,” said Madden, who was still in High-A when we spoke. “Before, I knew a good amount of the information, but I didn’t really know what to do with it. The staff here has kind of taught me what these numbers mean — when they’re good versus when they’re bad — and there are also the analytics for hitters. Along with knowing your own stuff, there is the game plan and how to go against that particular lineup.” Read the rest of this entry »

Greetings, friends and readers.

My name is Michael Baumann, and I’m the newest full-time member of the FanGraphs staff. If the name rings a bell, it’s probably because you remember the losing pitcher in the first game of Monday’s Orioles-Blue Jays doubleheader. Unfortunately that’s a different, much taller Mike Baumann. (Though I’ve met Big Mike, and he seems like a nice guy. What a fastball he’s got.)

From 2016 until last week, I was a staff writer at The Ringer, where for six years I hosted The Ringer MLB Show. Before that, I worked at D1Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Grantland. Over that time I’ve appeared periodically on both FanGraphs Audio and Effectively Wild; if you remember some joker with a Philly accent explaining to Ben how hockey works or ranting at Meg about the lockout, that was probably me. I’m an Aries, and in my free time I enjoy cooking, watching TikToks about seals, and reading nonfiction books about people doing ludicrously dangerous things in the early 20th century. Read the rest of this entry »

Aaron Judge is doing something that most baseball fans, myself included, haven’t seen in their lifetime: He’s making a run at the American League home run record. Even if you don’t do some steroid-related asterisking of Barry Bonds et al., passing Babe Ruth and Roger Maris is a heck of an accomplishment; if you want to stick your fingers in your ears and ignore the late 1990s and early 2000s, it only makes Judge’s chase more consequential. Truly, this is an exciting time to follow baseball.

Normally, I’m the writer who pours cold water on everyone’s fun during chases like this. “Sure, he’s doing well now,” I’d say, “but if you look at his career numbers, he’s on pace to fall short.” Well for once, that’s not true! If you look at our Depth Charts projections, our median expectation for Judge gives him a 62-homer season.

That’s a boring and dry number, but in baseball statistics nerd land, it’s rare and exceptional. Projecting someone to break a record is obviously rare – records usually get broken by phenomenal performances, not by median outcomes. In celebration of that, I thought I’d layer on a bit more analytical rigor and give people an idea of not just if, but when Judge might hit home runs number 60, 61, or 62.

I wanted an easy-to-understand process, so I kept it simple. I took the Yankees’ remaining schedule, then noted each remaining team’s HR/9+ (from our suite of Plus Stats), the venue’s righty home run park factor (from Statcast’s new park factors), and whether I think Judge will play that day. I also used our projections to get what we consider to be Judge’s current true home-run-per-plate-appearance level (it’s 7.14%, for those of you keeping score at home). Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a baseball (and softball) toilet flapper, discuss (13:32) the continued excellence of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani (and the benefits of celebrating both instead of elevating one over the other), follow up on the Angels’ shutouts, Mike Trout’s post-injury rebound, the MLBPA’s effort to unionize minor leaguers (38:09), players whose homer totals matched their uniform numbers (46:25), César Hernández’s homers (47:38), Dallas Keuchel’s disastrous denouement (51:14), the Frontier League’s record-setting Empire State Greys (57:38), the variability of check-swing strike call rates (1:00:27), Yankee Stadium’s noise level (1:04:16), and a playoff-seeding quirk’s potential for tanking (1:13:05), followed by additional discussion on Zac Gallen’s scoreless streak (1:22:01) and Joe Maddon’s thoughts on analytics and managing (1:26:35), plus a Past Blast from 1899 (1:46:42) and a few closing thoughts (1:50:30).

Audio intro: The Lumineers, “Flapper Girl”
Audio outro: The Long Blondes, “You Could Have Both”

Link to flapper wrapper photo
Link to Korky flapper page
Link to Hugh Laurie “Corky” montage
Link to article on Clemens and Ohtani
Link to article on Ohtani’s autograph
Link to team shutout leaders
Link to Russell on Ohtani’s WAR
Link to final Frontier League standings
Link to Greys interview episode
Link to lowest pro winning percentages
Link to Evan’s unionization update
Link to list of highest ERAs (min. 60 IP)
Link to Bill James on grounder longevity
Link to Rob Neyer’s response to James
Link to @would_it_dong for Hernández
Link to video of Hernández’s HR
Link to article on Hernández’s HR
Link to Stat Blast on Hernández
Link to Craig Finn tweet
Link to Rob Mains on playoff seeding
Link to Joe Sheehan on playoff seeding
Link to Dan Szymborski on Gallen
Link to Michael Ajeto on Gallen
Link to team OAA leaderboard
Link to “OAA behind pitcher” leaderboard
Link to Maddon’s comments
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1899 story source
Link to Richard Garner primate research
Link to Barzun baseball essay

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