Luis Severino Aced His Final Regular Season Test

© Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

All eyes were on Aaron Judge as he took the pursuit of his 62nd home run to Globe Life Field Monday night (the slugger went homerless), but it was Luis Severino who stole the show. In his third start back following a 10-week absence due to a strained latissimus dorsi, Severino threw seven no-hit innings before his pitch count forced him from the game. The Rangers did collect two hits in the eighth inning, but Severino’s outing offered the Yankees some reassurance regarding the oft-injured 28-year-old righty as the postseason approaches.

Facing the Rangers — a team that had already lost 92 games and that entered Monday ranked 10th in the American League both in batting average (.239) and wRC+ (98, tied with the Guardians) — Severino allowed just one baserunner. He retired the first seven batters he faced before walking Josh Smith, who was immediately erased via a 101-mph double play groundball off the bat of Bubba Thompson. Only once after the third inning did Severino even yield a hard-hit ball, a 99-mph fourth-inning drive by Corey Seager that had a .480 expected batting average based on its exit velocity and 25-degree launch angle (but not its direction). None of the 12 other batted balls he allowed had an xBA higher than .340. Read the rest of this entry »


Cleveland’s Bo Naylor Has a New Swing and a Unique Profile

Bo Naylor
David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Bo Naylor made his MLB debut with the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday, and if all goes according to plan, he’ll be a mainstay in their lineup as soon as next year. His tool box and present performance are equally eye-catching. The 22-year-old Mississauga, Ontario native logged a 140 wRC+ between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus, and a pair of counting stats were even more notable. Displaying unique athleticism for a backstop, Naylor swatted 21 home runs and swiped 20 bases in 24 attempts.

His emergence as Cleveland’s catcher of the future came on the heels of a confounding 2021 campaign. Returning to action following a minor-league season lost to COVID, the 2018 first-round pick struggled to the tune of a .612 OPS in Akron last year. A flaw in his left-handed stroke was the primary reason for concern. As Eric Longenhagen wrote last spring, Naylor’s swing “can really only cut through the heart of the zone.”

This past Sunday, I asked the younger brother of Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor if he felt that our lead prospect analyst’s assessment was valid. Read the rest of this entry »


The Playoffs Aren’t Too Big. The League Is Way Too Small.

Montreal baseball
Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

With the first 12-team postseason in MLB history right around the corner, we’re hearing a little bit of griping. The playoffs, like your dad’s hand-me-down sport coat, are too big. Look at the race for the last Wild Card spot in the NL, in which the Phillies and Brewers have spent the past two weeks bumbling around like a pair of somnambulant dachsunds investigating a cricket. Eventually one sneezes and forgets what he was doing in the first place, and the other gets tired and plops over for a nap. The cricket escapes unharmed. Surely these are not playoff-quality teams. Surely they’re nothing but an inconvenience to a champion-elect like the Dodgers. But they’ll get a full three-game audition nonetheless. What a waste of time.

And by and large, I agree. While the current playoff structure seems to incentivize regular-season competition and could lead to some exciting October action, all things being equal I’d rather go back to an eight-team playoff bracket. Maybe because that’s the way things were when I was a kid, which is the overriding logic behind about 95% of people’s opinions about baseball, art, or society at large, but that’s how I feel.

But go back and consider, for a moment, that hand-me-down sport coat from your dad. You’re a teenager, fresh off a growth spurt, all tendons and hormones. The jacket, made for a man, looks weird on the frame of what is essentially a very tall child. But the problem is not that the jacket is too big; it’s that you are too small. On a bigger person, with a more fully developed frame, it would look just fine.

So while a 12-team playoff is probably too big for a 30-team baseball league, a 30-team baseball league is preposterously small for the size of the audience it serves. America, like Leon from Airplane, is getting larger. MLB should do the same. Read the rest of this entry »


Can’t We All Just Go Home?

Nationals Phillies
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is unique among major American sports for its lengthy schedule. For six months a year, there’s a game nearly every day. Every. Dang. Day. Working for the weekend? There’s no such thing; Saturdays and Sundays are for games. Want to have a lazy one and “work from home” with a pint of Ben and Jerry’s and an eye on your emails? Yeah, uh, that’s not going to work, though you can at least wear pajamas in the dugout.

We marvel at the physical prowess of players all the time, but I’m interested in their mental fortitude. It’s hard to keep grinding day in and day out for half a year. It’s harder still when there’s no postseason carrot dangled in front of you. I’ve never personally been in a pennant race, but I imagine a chance at a hunk of metal is a great motivator. Without that powerful incentive, spending a few months with no mental breaks is beyond my ken.

Earlier this year, I observed that down-and-out teams perform worse than expected late in the season. That seems entirely reasonable. I’ve always wondered where that effect comes from, though. Every time I try to look for hitting or pitching performance relative to expectations late in the season, I find a whole lot of nothing. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Guardians Software Engineer, Data Scientist

Data Scientist

Department: Baseball Research & Development

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians Baseball Research & Development (R&D) group is seeking data scientists at a variety of experience levels, including senior, entry-level, and interns/fellows. Prior experience with sports is not necessary if you have some curiosity or interest in learning about data science applications in baseball.

If you enjoy tackling challenging problems, using interesting real data, collaborating with smart people, and having a direct impact on what happens on the baseball field and in our business, this may be the opportunity for you!

People in this role will use statistical and machine learning techniques to better understand and quantify the game of baseball. You will analyze video, player tracking, and biomechanics data as well as traditional baseball data sources like box scores to help us acquire and develop baseball players into a championship-caliber team. You will work alongside the rest of the R&D, data engineering, and IT groups, and interact with coaches, scouts, and executives from across the organization.

The Cleveland Guardians prefer our employees (or teammates) reside in Cleveland, Ohio, but we will consider and discuss the possibility of remote work.

If you meet some of the qualifications below, we encourage you to apply or reach out for more information. We know that historically marginalized groups – including people of color, women, people from working class backgrounds, and people who identify as LGBTQ – are less likely to apply unless and until they meet every requirement for a job. We encourage you to reach out if you have questions about the role or your qualifications. We are happy to help you feel ready to apply!

Responsibilities

  • Design, build, test, and deploy statistical and/or machine learning models to support all facets of baseball operations, including scouting, player development, and the major league team.
  • Explain methods, results and corresponding actionable insights to key stakeholders across the organization.

Basic Requirements

  • Bachelor’s degree or equivalent experience in a quantitative field such as Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Machine Learning, or Operations Research.
  • Demonstrated understanding of statistics and associated quantitative methods, including the tradeoffs between different techniques.
  • Demonstrated experience completing statistics and/or machine learning projects from beginning to end.
  • Demonstrated experience working with large data sets in a programming language such as R or Python.
  • Desire to learn about data science applications in baseball. Prior experience with baseball data is a plus but not necessary.

Preferred Experience

  • Advanced degree or equivalent experience in a quantitative field such as Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Machine Learning, or Operations Research.
  • Demonstrated research experience in a sports context (baseball is a plus).
  • Demonstrated experience with a database language such as SQL.
  • Demonstrated experience with deep learning frameworks such as Tensorflow or PyTorch.
  • Demonstrated experience with computer vision.
  • Demonstrated experience working with high-dimensional spatiotemporal data.
  • Demonstrated experience with Bayesian statistics.

Standard Requirements

  • Represent the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationships with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to organizational values and service excellence at all times.
  • Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.

About Us
Our teammates are at the core of what we believe in: People, Collaboration, Learning, and Excellence (PeopleCLE). We look to hire individuals who are committed to our purpose of uniting and inspiring our city with the power of team. Our mission is to win the World Series while creating a compelling fan experience.

We believe that we will achieve our goals by making evidence and model-based decisions and creating environments that support our people and empower them to continuously learn. This role might be for you if you are looking to join a team that works together to learn new ways to make model-based decisions that lead to excellent outcomes.

We also pride ourselves on creating an attractive work environment highlighted by a healthy work-life balance, exceptional benefits such as health, vision, and dental coverage, and competitive 401k plan with employer contribution and match.

Our Hiring Process

  1. A short, three question questionnaire to help us get to know you better than we do from just your application. No coding involved.
  2. Two approximately 30-minute phone calls.
  3. A longer take-home questionnaire to help us learn how you think through problems. No coding or project involved.
  4. A final round of interviews with our R&D department as well as teammates across Baseball Operations.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Software Engineer

Department: Baseball Systems
Employment Type: Full-Time, Exempt

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians are seeking a Software Engineer to join their Baseball Systems Engineering team. In this position, you will have the opportunity to gain exposure to a variety of tasks – including, but not limited to, software engineering, data warehousing, and UX/UI design & development – that directly impact the organization’s ability to acquire, develop, and deploy players. Depending on your preferences, we will work with you to craft a role that either specializes in one of these areas or allows you to contribute across multiple areas. The software and data products you help build will facilitate operations and enhance decision-making across all areas of the organization, helping to answer questions such as “which trades should we execute,” “who should we select with our next pick in the draft,” and “how can we show players their data from yesterday’s game?” The position offers the opportunity to collaborate and help craft innovative solutions to challenging problems, grow from both an engineering and leadership standpoint, and work with teammates side by side in pursuit of the organization’s ultimate mission – winning the World Series.

As a Software Engineer with the Cleveland Guardians, you will have the opportunity to:
From a front-end engineering perspective…

  • Learn from experienced engineers and work within a modern web stack, using Vue, Node, Nest, D3, etc.
  • Work closely with your product team to discover competitive advantages in player acquisition and player development, and build interactive software and web pages to realize those advantages
  • Identify inefficiencies in our users’ processes that can only be solved with user-friendly software
  • Rapidly prototype new/innovative solutions and demonstrate them to your product team, end-users, and Baseball Operations leadership
  • Contribute to the holistic design process and help shape how we work in the future
  • Have regular opportunities to engage with, and learn from, our Baseball Operations leadership group

From a back-end engineering perspective…

  • Build robust data systems that improve the backbone of our data-first applications
  • Transform both internal and external data sources into our central data warehouse
  • Work closely with your product team and other software engineers to determine technical requirements and turn them into accessible and secure data endpoints (e.g., direct SQL, BI tools, REST)
  • Collaborate with our R&D team to help move statistical/machine learning models into production
  • Collaborate with our Infrastructure team to troubleshoot/enhance performance and query costs across both cloud and on-premises environments
  • Be an active participant in identifying, evolving, and evangelizing data engineering best practices, constantly challenging the status quo and improving our data engineering standards

Base Requirements Needed, you should have:

  • Demonstrated experience or degree in a field such as Computer Science or another STEM program
  • Demonstrated experience writing user-facing application code
  • A proven ability to work within tight timelines and iterate quickly
  • Effective communication skills and the ability to collaborate within a cross-functional team
  • A desire to learn and grow not only as a programmer, but also as a person
  • A passion for baseball/sports, or a willingness to learn more about the game

Standard Requirements

  • Represents the Cleveland Guardians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationships with members of the Front Office
  • Ability to act accordingly to organizational values and service excellence at all times
  • Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment

About Us
In Baseball Operations and Baseball Systems, our shared goal is to identify and develop diverse players and front office teammates who contribute to our mission. By working together effectively and collaboratively, we create a family atmosphere that supports learning as we strive for excellence in everything we do. We believe that we will achieve our goals by making evidence-based decisions and creating environments that support our people and empower them to learn.

We know that people from historically marginalized groups and those who have not yet had direct experience in the sports industry are less likely to apply for a job unless they meet every requirement. That being said, we encourage anyone who meets some of the qualifications above to apply or reach out for more information.

The Cleveland Guardians are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.


Evaluating Nolan Arenado’s Opt-Out Clause

© Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

It would be a scurrilous lie to suggest that adding Nolan Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals has been anything but a roaring success for the franchise. Arenado’s first season with the Cards may have been a bit down compared to his previous campaigns, but he’s rebounded to have arguably his best season ever in 2022. And with a .292/.358/. 533, 151 wRC+ line good for 7.2 WAR, he’s making a solid case for votes in this year’s National League MVP race, especially with teammate Paul Goldschmidt coming back to the pack thanks to a weak September. The near-certain MVP in the American League, Aaron Judge, will be a free agent this offseason. Could the National League MVP join him? Arenado has an important decision to make.

The Rockies originally signed Arenado to an eight-year, $260 million contract in early 2019. That contract came with an opt-out after the 2021 season, an escape hatch if he wanted to take a crack at free agency. Sadly for Rockies fans, opening that hatch became a possibility almost immediately, with Arenado reportedly becoming unhappy with the path the organization was taking before the first season of the new deal was even complete. Per The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders:

Although Arenado declined to talk publicly about the details of his deteriorating relationship with Bridich, multiple sources told The Post that Arenado feels like “promises were broken” after he signed an eight-year, $260 million contract last February. At that point, Arenado believed the Rockies were going to make roster moves to further improve a team that made the playoffs in 2017 and 2018.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 10/3/22

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Alejandro Kirk and Alek Manoah Boldly Go Towards the Shadow Zone

© John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The “shadow zone” is one of my favorite new bits of lingo from the Statcast era, and I’m sure I’m not alone. In actual fact, the term describes a pretty simple concept – the area in and around the edges of the strike zone – but it sounds more like a hidden world from Star Trek or Stranger Things. The title for a FanGraphs piece about the shadow zone practically writes itself.

But I’m not here to talk about sonically pleasing sports terminology. Sure, I like the shadow zone because it sounds like it’s from a straight-to-video B-movie, but I am just as partial to what happens within it. It’s an area of ambiguity around the strike zone’s edges. It’s where plate discipline matters most, where control matters most, where umpiring matters most, and, as I’d like to focus on today, where pitch framing matters most.

Pitch framing takes place almost exclusively around the borders of the zone. Every so often a catcher successfully frames a pitch from beyond the shadows (a potential sequel to The Shadow Zone), but at that point, it’s just as much about bad umpiring as it is about good framing. Read the rest of this entry »


High Sliders: Junk or Genius?

Janson Junk
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

In my time at Sports Info Solutions this summer, I scored both of Janson Junk’s 2022 major league starts. Typically, getting assigned to an Angels’ game, especially a Mike Trout-less one (he was injured at the time), would elicit a groan. However, come the second Junk start, I was admittedly a bit excited, because in his first turn, I saw a lot of this:

I kept the audio in that clip so that you can hear the announcer say “there you go, there’s another one” — specifically, another whiff on a high slider. I put the announcer’s assertion to the test by defining a high pitch as one in the highlighted part of Statcast’s strike zone:

In that start against the Royals alone, Junk threw 36 sliders, 17 of which were high. All four of his slider whiffs came on the high hard ones. In his next start against the lowly A’s, Junk didn’t fare as well, but the high slider wasn’t to blame. He threw 24 more sliders, eight of which were high. His only slider whiff came on a high one, and the two doubles he allowed off sliders were not off high ones.

Sadly, that’s all the data we have to go on, as Junk was demoted after failing to quiet Oakland’s typically silent bats. In Triple-A the rest of the year, he pitched to a 6.12 ERA and 5.10 FIP, making it unlikely he’d receive another nod in the majors this year. So I had to search elsewhere for a verdict on whether high sliders were truly effective in the majors. They certainly remain uncommon, with little change from last year to this year:

Using my Statcast-aided definition of high sliders, their usage has actually decreased from 18.0% last year to 17.3% this year, a statistically significant difference. Read the rest of this entry »


The Braves Continue to Bet on Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday wasn’t Charlie Morton’s best night, though it was hardly his worst. Fresh off the announcement of a contract extension for next season, and with nothing less than the Braves’ full control of their own destiny in the NL East race on the line against the Mets, the 38-year-old righty bent but didn’t break before manager Brian Snitker pulled him with a 4–3 lead and one out in the fifth inning. His performance was still better than opposite number Chris Bassitt, who was chased in the third inning. And for the third straight night, the Braves got home runs from both Dansby Swanson and Matt Olson and a save from Kenley Jansen. Their magic number to clinch the division and the NL’s second seed is down to one.

With victories over Jacob deGrom on Friday and Max Scherzer on Saturday, the Braves had taken a one-game lead in the NL East race — their largest of the season — and evened the season series with the Mets at nine games apiece. A victory on Sunday night meant that they would possess not only a two-game lead with three games left to play but also the upper hand in a tiebreaker scenario via their 10–9 record in head-to-head games. Under the new postseason format, so long as they do anything but lose all three of their remaining games against the Marlins in Miami along with the Mets winning their three against the Nationals at home, the Braves would get a first-round bye and face the winner of the best-of-three Wild Card series between the Cardinals and the sixth seed (currently the Phillies, who have a magic number of one over the Brewers). The fourth-seeded Mets would face the fifth-seeded Padres, with the winner moving on to face the top-seeded Dodgers in the Division Series.

So there was a lot riding on Sunday’s contest, to say the least. As a 15-year veteran who’s pitched for teams that have been to the playoffs in eight of the past nine seasons (plus this one) and who has appeared in three of the past five World Series (most notably closing out Game 7 for the 2017 Astros), Morton is no stranger to big games. It appears that he has more in store, not only because the Braves are playoff-bound but also because on Saturday they announced a one-year, $20 million extension with the righty, with a $20 million club option (and no buyout) for 2024. It’s essentially a rollover of Morton’s previous deal, in that he’s making $20 million this year and had a club option for $20 million next year. Read the rest of this entry »