It seems like almost yesterday when, amidst the lockout’s flurry of recriminations and constantly shifting arbitrary deadlines, we weren’t quite sure if there was even going to be a 2022 season at all. But Opening Day arrived after a short delay, and now we’re just about a third of the way through the season. The trade deadline is just two months out and as we saw last year, the elimination of the August waiver-trade period served to increase the stakes. While we don’t know the exact contours of what the pennant races will look like or which destinations make the most sense for potential trade candidates, the basic outlines of the season have been drawn. Short of some major surprises, we can start speculating about a few of the more interesting players likely to be available.

Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

The official position of the Washington Nationals is that they aren’t trading Juan Soto, no way, no how. I’m not sure I actually believe them. Soto will be a free agent after the 2024 season and has already turned down a 13-year, $350 million extension offer from the team. Plus, the longer they hang onto him, the less mega of a mega-package they’re likely to net in return for their superstar. It’s tempting to compare Soto’s situation with Bryce Harper’s, but as he approached free agency, the Nationals were fielding a team they had reason to think was competitive. This year’s squad is looking up at the Reds, and the farm system doesn’t have anywhere near the talent needed to quickly salvage the situation. The possibility of a sale and Soto’s age complicate the calculus – if Washington was able to convince him to stick around, he’s young enough that he’s likely to still be very good the next time they are. Soto isn’t posting his normal numbers, but ZiPS sees little reason to worry; it thinks that Soto’s hit data should have resulted in a BABIP closer to .320 and a slugging percentage well in excess of .500, similar to his xBA and xSLG. It would stink for Nationals fans, and putting together a deal worthy of netting Soto is its own challenge, but a trade could be a possibility come August. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers once again have one of the best pitching staffs in the major leagues. That’s nothing surprising; the last time they allowed more than four runs per game was back in 2010, when they finished fourth in the NL West. This season, they’ve been better than ever, allowing just 3.14 runs per game through nearly a third of the season. Their park- and league-adjusted ERA is 30% under the league average, easily the best in the majors. And they’ve accomplished this despite missing Clayton Kershaw, Andrew Heaney, and Blake Treinen for large chunks of the season. The man leading the pitching staff in WAR through the first two months of the season isn’t who you’d expect either: Tyler Anderson.

In an offseason headlined by Freddie Freeman, Anderson was an under-the-radar acquisition. Brought in to provide some depth to their pitching staff, the aforementioned injuries to Kershaw and Heaney thrust him into a key role in the Dodgers’ starting rotation. And outside of a seven-run blowup against the Phillies on May 12, he’s been absolutely dominant, allowing two runs or fewer in all of his other appearances and currently on a 20-inning scoreless streak.

Prior to this year, Anderson had put up a 4.62 ERA and a 4.43 FIP across more than 600 innings in six seasons. Both of those marks were a bit inflated, since he started out his career with the Rockies; his park- and league-adjusted ERA and FIP sat a hair above league average at 101 and 102, respectively. That sort of production was what the Dodgers were probably expecting from him when they brought him in without a clear spot in the rotation. His first two outings came out of the bullpen in a piggyback role paired with Tony Gonsolin, but when Heaney went down with a shoulder injury, he was inserted into the rotation and hasn’t looked back.

Anderson has been pitching better than ever, even including that one bad outing against the Phillies, posting career bests in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and strikeout and walk rates. The biggest difference maker for him has been one single pitch: his changeup. He’s always possessed a good one, but it’s been leaps and bounds better this year, and it starts with his pitch mix.

He’s throwing his changeup 31.2% of the time this season, though that’s not the highest rate of his career; that came in 2020 when he threw it 33% of the time while with the Giants. More importantly, he’s reduced the usage of his four-seam fastball to just 30%, making his changeup the featured pitch in his repertoire. Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve probably seen Adam Cimber pitch before. It looks strange, like this:

Or fine, maybe you haven’t seen Cimber himself, but you’ve seen someone like him. Righty, low arm slot, baffles same-handed hitters despite an eight-handle fastball (that’s one with an average velocity in the 80s, for those of you who don’t speak obscure bond market jargon).

As you’d expect, Cimber has been far better against same-handed batters in his career. It’s not particularly close, either; he’s allowed a .315 wOBA to lefties compared to just a .275 to righties. That’s just the name of the game when you’re a soft-tossing sidearmer. Batters who get a good look at your delivery will give you fits.

There’s another reason that sidearmers don’t fare well against opposite-handed batters: Their arsenal just doesn’t match up very well. If you can think of one of these pitchers, they probably throw a predictable mix of fastballs and sliders. It’s simply the natural arsenal from that arm slot. You can run fastballs in and mix in sliders that start out headed for the batter’s hip before ending in the opposite batter’s box. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 977

This week, we remember a legend of baseball writing before a discussion about the Seattle Mariners (and our new merch).

• To begin the show, Jay Jaffe welcomes Jayson Stark of The Athletic in his return to the pod as they discuss Roger Angell, who recently passed away at age 101. The Hall of Fame writer had a huge impact on so many baseball writers, including Jay and Jayson, and they discuss how he affected their work and their lives. The duo also share some of their favorite Angell pieces, including when he wrote about Dan Quisenberry and Steve Blass, and how his style was so different and inspiring, and also unrepeatable. [3:40]
• In the second half, David Laurila welcomes Aaron Goldsmith, broadcaster for the Seattle Mariners. We hear about his journey to calling major league games on the radio and the unforgettable stops he made along the way. We also hear about how Aaron tries to utilize advanced stats in his broadcasts, as well as his insights on young talents like Jarred Kelenic, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Julio Rodríguez. [34:17]

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @dhhiggins on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 79 minute play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley announce the availability of new Effectively Wild T-shirts, then follow up on the latest, Mike Trout-related developments in the Tommy Pham–Joc Pederson fantasy-football/slap story as well as Josh Donaldson’s comments about his teammates not supporting him. After that, they banter about a home-run robbery that wasn’t, the homer hitting of Aaron Judge, a successful use of the “KK play” to deke a runner into leaving third base early, the return of MVP-caliber Mookie Betts, the Kevin Gausman vs. Robbie Ray debate revisited, unlikely contenders for the pitcher WAR lead (including Martín Pérez), and whether the Phillies are hopeless this season and long term, followed by the latest edition of Today’s Episode Number in Baseball History (plus a postscript).

Audio intro: The Skygreen Leopards, “Selling T-shirts”
Audio outro: The Lemonheads, “It’s a Shame About Ray”

Link to FG post about t-shirts
Link to t-shirts
Link to C. Trent on Trout
Link to Andy McCullough on Trout
Link to MLB.com on Trout
Link to Donaldson comments
Link to tweet about Ohtani’s rescheduling
Link to Ohtani game story
Link to Ohtani non-robbery video
Link to Ben on homer robberies
Link to Dan Szymborski on Judge
Link to “ordinary effort” definition
Link to story about the “KK play”
Link to video of the “KK play”
Link to Ben on mid-PA pitching changes
Link to story about Ray and vaccination
Link to Shapiro’s comments
Link to Levi Weaver on Pérez
Link to Sports-Reference newsletter
Link to changes in playoff odds
Link to Girardi on his job
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Girardi’s job
Link to The Ringer’s preseason predictions
Link to RosterResource payroll page
Link to 1857 convention story
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1857 story source 1
Link to 1857 story source 2
Link to 1857 story source 3
Link to Shanghaiing wiki
Link to sticky wicket wiki
Link to story on crank/fan
Link to “good hair day” clip
Link to overheard Hallion clip
Link to Hallion hot-mic clip
Link to “ass in the jackpot” video

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Noah Syndergaard’s return to New York on Tuesday night did not go well. In his first start in the Big Apple since signing with the Angels last November, the 29-year-old righty gave up five runs and didn’t make it out of the third inning as his team extended its losing streak to six games via a 9–1 thrashing at the hands of the Yankees. After missing nearly all of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, a pitcher who was the game’s hardest-throwing starter is in the process of reinventing himself, but the results have been rather uneven.

Syndergaard agreed to a one-year, $21 million deal with the Angels last November, a day before the deadline for him to accept or reject the $18.4 million qualifying offer he received from the Mets. He missed all of the 2020 season after tearing his UCL in March and then made just two one-inning starts last year following setbacks in his rehab — first a bout of inflammation in his right elbow in late May, then a positive COVID-19 test in late August — so it would not have been a surprise for him to stay in Queens on a one-year deal and rebuild his value. And while Syndergaard had interest from multiple suitors, some of them willing to sign him to a multi-year deal despite his long absence, he told reporters that he was intrigued by the Angels’ plan to keep him healthy. Via MLBcom’s Rhett Bollinger:

“It was a no-brainer once I had that sitdown meeting with Perry,” Syndergaard said Friday. “He had a really in-depth plan of attack to get me back to where I was in 2015, ’16 and ’18. Not pitching for two years, he had a great game plan that I’m 100% confident in that’s gonna keep me healthy and allow me to flourish and blossom to my true potential.”

The idea of pitching in a six-man rotation appealed to Syndergaard, as it’ll help keep his innings total at a manageable level in his first full season back from his elbow surgery. The Angels utilize the six-man rotation to make room for two-way star Shohei Ohtani, who stayed mostly healthy throughout the 2021 season while making 23 starts and throwing 130 1/3 innings.

Syndergaard said his innings total will be limited next season, but he didn’t have a total in mind just yet.

For that stretch that Syndergaard mentioned, he was one of the top pitchers in baseball… when he was available. From 2015 to ’18, only Clayton Kershaw outdid Syndergaard’s 2.66 FIP; only Kershaw, teammate Jacob deGrom, and Max Scherzer beat his 2.93 ERA; and only eight pitchers had a higher strikeout-walk differential than his 21.6% (27.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate). Syndergaard’s 14.4 WAR for that period ranked “only” 15th because he threw just 518.1 innings in that span, the majors’ 71st-highest total. A strained latissimus dorsi limited him to just seven starts and 30.1 innings in 2017 (who can forget his refusal to take an MRI for shoulder and biceps discomfort, followed by a 1.1-inning start and then a nearly five-month absence?), and then he missed nearly seven weeks in 2018 due to a strained ligament in his right index finger. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to the start of the Dan Szymborski Birthday season.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I’d personally avoid unless the next option is really poor – Coors is still Coors.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Possible, but I’m still optimistic on some of those guys turning it around

12:06

Dan Szymborski: What’s kinda awkward is that Profar and Hosmer have been steadily fading but the guys struggling aren’t really bouncing back

Read the rest of this entry »

Broadcasters see a lot of games, and as a result, they see a lot of great pitching performances. Which of them would qualify as “the best” is, of course, subjective. For instance, a no-hitter is always going to stand out, but a two-hitter with a huge strikeout total is arguably even more impressive. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. With that in mind, I recently posed this question to a cross section of big league broadcasters: What is the best pitching performance you’ve seen?

———

Robert Ford, Houston Astros

“It would have to be Gerrit Cole throwing a one-hit shutout in 2018 with 16 strikeouts. I’ve been fortunate to call three no-hitters. Two of them were individual no-hitters. There was Justin Verlander’s last one, and the other was Mike Fiers. The Verlander one would be second on my list. The Cole performance was even more impressive.

“Cole was just dominant. He had everything working. I can’t remember who got the hit off of him, but looking back, it’s amazing that anybody did. Honestly, if he were to have that same performance, nine times out of 10 it would have been a no-hitter. This was the exception — the one that wasn’t. I think he had a perfect game-score.” Read the rest of this entry »

We’re pleased to announced that we’ve launched a whole bunch of new FanGraphs and Effectively Wild merchandise in partnership with BreakingT.

There are three new Effectively Wild shirts, all designed by Luke Hooper. These include a new take on the Effectively Wild logo, a Stat Blast shirt (complete with song lyrics on the back), and the much requested “How Can You Not Be Pedantic About Baseball?” shirt. Read the rest of this entry »