On Wednesday, I looked at the hitters I’m bearish on, so it’s time to finish the series for 2022 with the pitchers that are causing me worries. (If you’re wondering about my breakout picks, wonder no more.)

So what exactly is a bust? I don’t take it to mean that a player is awful or has no value. For me, a bust is a player who will step down a tier in performance or who is in a down cycle and has passed the window to get back to what they used to be. None of the players involved are literally without value, and some of them are still really good. But they’re all players I think will be well below their best, usually in a manner that makes me sad as a baseball fan.

Before getting to the 2022 candidates, here are my ’21 bust choices and how they performed:

• Corey Kluber: 3.83 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.5 WAR in 80 IP
• Patrick Corbin: 5.82 ERA, 5.41 FIP, 0.2 WAR in 171.2 IP
• Jon Lester: 4.71 ERA, 5.41 FIP, 0.0 WAR in 141.1 IP
• Martín Pérez: 4.74 ERA, 5.54 FIP, 0.6 WAR in 114 IP
• Marco Gonzales: 3.96 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 0.6 WAR in 143.1 IP
• Johnny Cueto: 4.08 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 1.5 WAR in 114.2 IP
• Rich Hill: 3.86 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.7 WAR in 158.2 IP
• Dustin May: 2.74 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 0.5 WAR in 23 IP

Nobody really shone here, but by the same token, nobody was legendarily awful (I had expected Lester to go down that route and he didn’t really). We obviously didn’t get a ton of Kluber, but he was definitely much more effective than I expected. My concern with May was that he was still rather awkward at punching out batters, despite the explosiveness of his stuff, so I was happy that he spent April proving me very wrong about where he was as a pitcher — then very unhappy as he tore his UCL in early May and required Tommy John surgery.

As a reminder, I selected all of these players by Opening Day, so there’s no knowledge of anything that happened after Opening Day. It would have been really awkward if someone on my list had surprise Tommy John surgery this week! Read the rest of this entry »

The Colorado Rockies are projected to be gobsmackingly bad in 2022. Look no further than the summary of this season’s positional power rankings: They have three positions that rank 30th and six below 20th, which works out to a cumulative last-place finish. Most of it traces back to a lack of certifiable talent on Colorado’s roster. But some of it, inevitably, is a function of Coors Field. Today, I will mainly focus on the fact that at home, the Rockies allow lots and lots of runs. The common thinking is that this is because Coors is an environment conducive to home runs. While true, there’s another factor that arguably matters more. Check out this graph:

When a fly ball or line drive is hit at Coors, the resulting .459 BABIP has led all of major league baseball by a laughably wide margin for the past few years. The gap between the Rockies in first place and the second-place Red Sox (.421) is equal to that between second place and the 15th-place Orioles (.393). If you’re wondering why, the outfield at Coors is absolutely enormous, so much so that it’s hard to believe just three men patrol it. The thin air helps the ball travel, but crucially, there’s also a lot of space for it to land. It’s a two-part mechanism that captures why offense can get out of control in the Rockies’ home park. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Phillies signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to free agent deals within a three-day span in March, there were more than a few giggles about the moves’ effect on what already figured to be a shaky team defense. Monday night provided ample demonstration of those concerns, though neither of those two new sluggers figured in the mishaps. Instead, the misadventures of third baseman Alec Bohm were in the spotlight, drawing attention to an area that might be of even greater concern.

The 25-year-old Bohm, who has struggled mightily at the hot corner during his brief major league career, was charged with throwing errors on three separate plays in the first three innings of Monday’s game, though the runs that scored in the wake of the first one were earned. He later found a measure of redemption by sparking a five-run rally in the team’s come-from-behind win over the Mets.

In the first inning, after Brandon Nimmo led off with a single, Starling Marte hit a comebacker that deflected off pitcher Ranger Suárez and over to Bohm, who made an awkward, sidearmed throw on a ball that he should have just kept in his pocket. The throw went into foul territory about 15 feet up the right field line as Marte took second and Nimmo third; while Bohm fielded grounders on the next two batters cleanly, Nimmo scored, and Marte soon did as well as part of a three-run inning. Read the rest of this entry »

With Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer fronting their rotation, the Mets were theoretically spoiled for choices when picking an Opening Day starter. Or at least, they would have been if deGrom hadn’t been hurt and Scherzer hadn’t picked up a few minor injuries of his own during the spring, throwing off his schedule a bit. Of course, New York also traded for Chris Bassitt during the offseason; he was the Oakland A’s Opening Day starter in 2021. They’ve also got a healthy Carlos Carrasco, who might have taken on the role during his Cleveland tenure were it not for Corey Kluber. Thus, it was rather surprising to see Tylor Megill take the mound last Thursday night.

While the start was certainly an honor for Megill, his throwing schedule also lined up most closely with the occasion. “It fit where he was. Not necessarily his pitch count, but his work load and experience factor,” said manager Buck Showalter after picking him. It’s a fun bit of trivia for the history books, but after the pre-game pomp and circumstance, Megill’s performance met the moment. He dazzled over five innings of work, holding the Nationals scoreless, allowing just three baserunners and striking out six. The biggest revelation of the evening was a fastball that was suddenly sitting 96 mph and that touched 99 mph, no doubt aided by the adrenaline of the first inning. In his second start of the season yesterday, Megill held the Phillies scoreless over 5.1 innings, allowing just three baserunners and striking out five. It’s just 10 innings and 144 pitches, but it certainly seems as though Megill’s entire arsenal — and not just his heater — has taken a step forward this year.

An eighth round pick in 2018 out of Arizona, Megill peaked at 25th on the 2021 Mets prospect list. His fastball sat in the low-90s in college and in his first taste of pro ball. After the cancelled 2020 minor league season, he showed up to spring training last year regularly throwing 94 mph, and that velocity increase stuck when he made his major league debut in late June. Now his fastball is up another tick and a half. Read the rest of this entry »

This season, Eric and Tess Taruskin will each have a minor league roundup post run during the week, with the earlier post recapping some of the weekend’s action. Those posts will typically run Monday or Tuesday (since Monday is widely an off day for the minors), though they will occasionally be featured later in the week, as Eric’s notes are here.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Level & Affiliate: High-A Cedar Rapids Age: 22 Org Rank: HM FV: 35
Line: 10-for-14, 3 HR, 2 2B, 1 SB, 15 RBI (!)

Notes
Wow! Encarnacion-Strand ended up at the bottom of our Twins list because we think he’s destined for first base and has more swing-and-miss going on than we’re comfortable with at that position. After transferring from Yavapai to Oklahoma State, he only struck out in about 19% of the plate appearances during his lone Division-I season, which is less than I’d have guessed based on my in-person notes on his contact ability. He certainly has big power, though. The universal DH helps Encarnacion-Strand’s cause since there are more 1B/DH jobs in the majors now, and teams are more open to platooning there and/or carrying a positionless bopper on their bench. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I ran down my favorite breakout candidates. Now it’s time for the darker side: the busts.

So what exactly is a bust? I don’t take it to mean that a player is awful or has no value. For me, a bust is a player who will step down a tier in performance or who is in a down cycle and has passed the window to get back to what they used to be. None of the players involved are literally without value, and some of them are still really good. But they’re all players I think will be well below their best, usually in a manner that makes me sad as a baseball fan.

Let’s start things off with a look at last year’s list of possible hitter busts and check how things worked out:

• José Abreu: .261/.351/.481, 126 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
• Jackie Bradley Jr.: .163/.236/.261, 35 wRC+, -0.8 WAR
• Justin Upton: .211/.296/.409, 92 wRC+, 0.3 WAR
• Kyle Lewis: .246/.333/.392, 107 wRC+, 0.3 WAR
• Charlie Blackmon: .270/.351/.411, 94 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
• Robbie Grossman: .239/.357/.415, 114 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
• Josh Bell: .261/.347/.476, 118 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
• Joey Votto: .266/.375/.563, 140 wRC+, 3.6 WAR

As you can see, I did much worse here than with the pitcher breakouts. I’m especially happy to have been wrong about Votto last year — my feeling was that there wasn’t another comeback left in him, but there was! I’m also quite pleased that Abreu didn’t slump back to league-average as I expected, staying a bit above instead, though well off his MVP performances. Lewis gets a pass since he was injured most of the year, and Grossman remained legitimately good, if below his 2020 rates. Read the rest of this entry »

Drew Rasmussen was a Rays success story last year. A key part of the trade that sent Willy Adames to Milwaukee, Rasmussen profiled as a plus reliever. But after initially serving as a multi-inning bullpen arm, Tampa Bay slotted him into the rotation for the last two months of the season, and he delivered 37 innings of 1.46 ERA, 2.76 FIP excellence. Sure, it was over 4.5 innings per start, and the peripherals weren’t pretty, but quality over quantity has always been a deal the Rays will take, and you certainly can’t argue with his run prevention.

Rasmussen did it despite what could charitably be described as a predictable arsenal. He threw his fastball 65% of the time and his slider another 30% of the time. If we’re being honest, it was more like 1.5 pitches — his fastball did a lot of the heavy lifting, and the slider picked up the pieces. It’s one of those spin-and-speed four-seamers that are all the rage these days. Rasmussen didn’t always locate it well, but simply put, it’s a hard pitch to hit.

He paired that fastball with a slider that featured two-plane action. It wasn’t a big movement pitch; it had drop and arm-side run in roughly equal proportion, but its main standout quality was that it was an offspeed pitch when hitters were setting up for 98 mph at the letters. If you’re trying to cover a high fastball, particularly one that struck you out last at-bat like this:

Then it’s hard to adjust to a slow and low pitch like this:

When you look at it that way, it’s a pretty good pitch. And hey, by some metrics, it was: hitters had a lot of trouble squaring it up, mustering a woeful .226 wOBA on contact (and a 41% hard-hit rate). On the other hand, it hardly missed any bats; Rasmussen was in the bottom 10% of baseball for swinging strike rate and bottom 15% for CSW rate. Eno Sarris wrote about the pitch in the playoffs and came away similarly unsure of its efficacy. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about NPB phenom Roki Sasaki’s 19-strikeout perfect game for the Chiba Lotte Marines, the historic crop of prospect debuts in the first week of this MLB season, the unprecedented career-starting hot streak of (and long-term outlook for) Cleveland’s Steven Kwan, A’s catcher Sean Murphy’s butt photogenically taking one for the team, Alec Bohm and the Phillies’ bad-defense, good-offense approach, an exposé on the Pirates’ (lack of) spending, Reds ownership saying the quiet part loud, public funding for sports teams and supermarket congestion in Buffalo, Brett Phillips’ attempt to combat position-player-pitcher fatigue, early, inconclusive indications that the baseball may not be flying as far as before, and Kelsie Whitmore signing with an Atlantic League team, plus a Stat Blast (1:01:03) about Padres pitcher Tim Hill blowing back-to-back no-hitters, Ripper Collins claiming to have spoiled four no-hitters, and the hitters who actually broke up the most no-nos (followed by a few updates and postscripts).

Audio intro: A Tribe Called Quest, “Da Booty”
Audio outro: Rolling Blackouts Coastal Fever, “Beautiful Steven”

Link to R.J. Anderson on Sasaki’s perfecto
Link to video of Sasaki’s 13 consecutive Ks
Link to highlights of Sasaki’s start
Link to best starts by Game Score
Link to Ben on top-prospect debuts
Link to viral Murphy HBP tweet
Link to Recker Facebook group
Link to video of Bohm errors
Link to video of Bohm comment
Link to story about Bohm
Link to Ryan Nelson’s tweet about Bohm
Link to video of ovation for Bohm
Link to Post-Gazette Pirates spending story
Link to Rob Mains on the Pirates
Link to new CBA’s revenue-sharing change
Link to Phil Castellini’s initial comments
Link to Castellini’s subsequent comments
Link to O’s statement about public funding
Link to statement about supermarkets
Link to Will Leitch on Buffalo’s stadium deal
Link to story about potential Nationals sale
Link to video of Phillips catch
Link to Twitter thread about the ball
Link to SI story about Whitmore
Link to MLBN Whitmore interview
Link to Ben’s old interview with Whitmore
Link to EW episode with Gauci
Link to Stathead
Link to Ripper Collins SABR bio
Link to Infinite Inning episode on Collins
Link to Collins Stat Blast data
Link to Stat Blast no-hitters data
Link to Mauer montage
Link to Kwan strikeouts story
Link to Madrigal strikeouts story
Link to video of Kwan’s almost-whiff
Link to photo of Manfred’s headphones gift
Link to 2015 MLB/Canada beer story
Link to 2018 MLB/Canada beer story

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There are so many good young shortstops in baseball these days that it’s easy to lose track. The oldest starter in the top 10 of our positional power rankings is Xander Bogaerts, and he hasn’t turned 30 yet. Eighteen of the top 20 shortstops are under 30. It can feel like every team has one of these guys. But that doesn’t mean they’re not valuable, and the Mariners clearly agree: they recently agreed to a contract extension with J.P. Crawford that will keep him in the Pacific Northwest through the 2026 season.

Crawford is, for lack of a better way to put it, an in-between Mariner. The team’s old guard – Félix Hernández and Kyle Seager, for example – is gone. The new guard – Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodríguez, Logan Gilbert, et al. – are breaking in now. But Crawford debuted for Seattle in 2019, and saw his first major league action in 2017. He would have reached free agency after the 2024 season, awkwardly in the middle of what the Mariners hope will be their new core’s best years.

The solution seemed obvious, and the deal the two sides worked out fits the mold almost perfectly. The five-year, $51 million pact is straightforward; no options on either side, no escalators, and no buyouts. It will pay him $10 million in each of the first four seasons and $11 million in the last year. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week may have been highlighted by the start of the 2022 regular season, but it also featured a spate of contract extensions. Today I’m going to take a closer look at two such extensions, both involving glove-first outfielders entering their age-27 seasons.

We’ll begin with Myles Straw, the center fielder for the Cleveland Guardians, who signed a five-year, $25 million extension, according to Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The extension includes club options for the 2027 and ’28 seasons that would bring the total to $41.5 million over the next seven years. Remarkably, this is the Guardians’ third extension this month with the potential to keep a player in Cleveland through the 2028 season — the team also inked deals with star third baseman José Ramírez and closer Emmanuel Clase.

2021 was Straw’s first full season as an everyday player. He came over to Cleveland from the Astros at the trade deadline in exchange for Phil Maton and Yainer Diaz. After the trade, he continued to build on his breakout campaign. He ended the having posted stellar defense (11 OAA), great baserunning (30 steals in 36 attempts), and about league-average offense (98 wRC+). That well-rounded production quietly placed him among the best center fielders in baseball last season, finishing sixth in WAR at the position with 3.7:

That chart does a good job of showing how unusual Straw’s profile is compared to his peers’, as he’s the only center fielder on the list without a clearly above-average bat. These offensive limitations mostly come from a lack of power, and it is a serious lack of power at that, with Straw posting an ISO, Barrel% and HardHit% all below the fifth percentile. His max exit velocity is actually above average, which could be a sign that more consistently hard contact is hidden away somewhere, but there’s just not a lot to suggest that he’ll be putting up double-digit home run totals anytime soon. Read the rest of this entry »