On Thursday morning, the Blue Jays and Rockies agreed to a trade sending Randal Grichuk and cash considerations to Colorado, with Raimel Tapia and minor league infielder Adrian Pinto joining Toronto. Rob Gillies of The Associated Press reports that the amount of cash is just over $9.7 million, which accounts for nearly half of the remaining salary on Grichuk’s five-year contract. With this move, the Blue Jays get the left-handed outfielder they had been searching for, and the Rockies get another power hitter to plug into the middle of their lineup.

Grichuk signed that five-year extension (worth $52 million) after putting up 2.1 WAR in 2018, his first season in Toronto. He blasted 31 home runs the next year, but that power was the only positive aspect of his approach at the plate. Over the last three years, his offensive output has been nine percent below league average, and that’s despite an ISO that sits a hair above .200. His biggest issue has been getting on base at a regular clip. His walk rate has been remarkably consistent, sitting around 5.8% over the last six years, though it dipped to its lowest point since his rookie season last year. With a batted-ball profile focused on fly ball contact, his BABIP isn’t much better.

In the field, Grichuk has been a solid defender across all three outfield positions. Splitting his time between center and right field over the last few years, the advanced defensive metrics rate his work in the corner a little higher than up the middle. All three metrics were disappointed in his ability to cover enough ground in the field as the Blue Jays’ full-time center fielder in 2020. But moved over to right in ’21, he graded out as one of the better fielders at the position on a per-inning basis, accumulating 6 DRS and 5.5 UZR in just 330.1 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

Rhys Hoskins hits for power. The 29-year-old Philadelphia Phillies first baseman went deep 27 times last year in 443 plate appearances; his home run totals in his previous full seasons were 34 and 29 respectively. Moreover, the most notable digits in his career .241/.360/.502 slash line are those of his slugging percentage. And then there is his average exit velocity. Last year, Hoskins ranked in the 83rd percentile for that particular metric.

Slugger bona fides aside, he’s no mere masher. Hoskins is a student of the art of hitting, and he has been since his days at Sacramento State University. That’s where he learned to hunt the heater, an approach that — as the numbers attest — has served him well.

Hoskins discussed his evolution as a hitter, and the mindset that helps him flourish in the batter’s box, at the Phillies’ spring training site in Clearwater on Wednesday afternoon.

———

David Laurila: How do you identify as a hitter?

Rhys Hoskins: “I think I’m a hitter with a pretty good understanding of the strike zone. High on-base guy. High power guy with always a chance to hit for more average. That’s the way I would describe myself.”

Laurila: Many people view you as a power hitter. Do you like that label?

Hoskins: “I feel like when you hear ‘power hitter,’ there’s a little bit of all-or-nothing attached to that. So I don’t know if I would necessarily say I’m a power hitter. I think I’d rather say that I’m a hitter with some power.”

Laurila: Where, and from whom, did you learn to hit? Read the rest of this entry »

If you weren’t looking for it, you’d miss it. Buried in a blow-by-blow account from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb of how the Phillies ended up signing Kyle Schwarber, FanGraphs newsletter writer Jeffrey Bellone spotted something interesting:

“However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).”

This change was an afterthought in the piece, an offhand justification the Phillies made for not acquiring Kevin Kiermaier. His remaining average salary outstrips the average annual value of his deal, which means that under the terms of the new CBA, he’d carry a higher tax hit than he would have in the old regime. The ownership group’s desire to abide by the sport’s soft salary cap made Kiermaier’s salary an untenable addition.

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems that ownership didn’t actually care about the dollars very much, given that they signed Nick Castellanos and ticked over the first CBT threshold anyway. And given that the tax rate is 20%, the difference in Kiermaier’s tax hit under the old and new agreements is a hair under $6 million; the total monetary difference would have been roughly $1 million in assessed tax. That’s a vanishingly small difference on a $230 million payroll.

I’ll level with you: I don’t think this is going to be an earth-shaking change to the economics of baseball. Only five teams look likely to pay any tax this year, with a few other in hailing distance of the barrier. The differences aren’t huge; $6 million a year isn’t quite a rounding error, but it’s hardly a life-and-death number. Remember: teams are not actually paying Kiermaier $6 million more than they would have before. Salary is salary. This is merely an accounting game that affects teams who pay at least some amount of tax.

Still, we analysts love financial tomfoolery, so let’s consider a few contracts that are interestingly shaped now that trades can trigger the re-calculation of tax numbers. First, a quick disclaimer: I haven’t seen the exact text of the new agreement. It’s unclear how the Rays’ CBT number would be affected by trading Kiermaier; I’m assuming no effect, but if that isn’t the case, that obviously changes the calculus. It’s not clear how signing bonuses will be handled, either; it appears that it would be spread evenly across each year, but again, I’m working from the outside.
Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 967

On this week’s show, David Laurila welcomes Alex Coffey, a sportswriter for The Philadelphia Inquirer covering the Philadelphia Phillies.

David and Alex both attended Nick Castellanos’ signing press conference in Florida, and discuss how the outfielder is going to fit on a team that may already struggle defensively. Alex also shares what it’s like to watch Bryce Harper take batting practice and lead a team, and how great it has been to interview Phillies like Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Gibson now that clubhouse access has been restored. We also hear about the team’s center field position battle and how Matt Vierling could potentially impress in the role.

To purchase a FanGraphs membership for yourself or as a gift, click here.

To donate to FanGraphs and help us keep things running, click here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @dhhiggins on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 26 minute play time.)

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Baseball Prospectus editor-in-chief Craig Goldstein banter about a contentious Baseball Prospectus headline and an overlooked Scott Boras quote, then preview the 2022 season in the National League West, team by team (plus closing banter about the Baseball Prospectus annual).

Audio intro: Big Star, “Way Out West”
Audio outro: The New Pornographers, “The Fake Headlines”

Link to BP zombie runner story
Link to Boras quote about Correa
Link to Ben’s old ouroBoras tweet
Link to Snell on sandwiches
Link to Trout on cutting sandwiches
Link to Craig on the Dodgers
Link to BP playoff odds
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to R.J.’s breakout picks
Link to Jarrín’s retirement story
Link to Michael Ajeto on Heaney
Link to Gore spring training story
Link to Jeff Passan on Story
Link to Ajeto on Gallen
Link to buy the BP annual
Link to Votto’s Instagram post
Link to Ben’s Ohtani article

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

I have a schematic in my head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. You, as someone who reads FanGraphs, probably have an idea in your head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. They’re probably the same ideas – assemble a stable of guys who can throw 98. If that doesn’t work, assemble a stable of guys who can throw 99, and add wipeout sliders until it clicks.

The Mariners had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year, and they nearly rode that unit – and their resulting excellent performance in close games – to the playoffs. You don’t coin “fun differential” if you don’t have a good bullpen. Yesterday, the team bolstered this year’s version by signing Sergio Romo to a one-year deal worth $2 million (or up to $2.25 million with incentives). In doing so, they added to a truly interesting unit that will look to back up last year’s spectacular performance while eschewing the way that their competitors look to combine relievers, at least to a degree.

In 2021, 135 relievers threw at least 20 innings while averaging 95 mph or higher on their fastballs. The Mariners will employ one of them – Diego Castillo – this year, and he’s only on the list due to his rarely-used four-seamer, as his sinker dipped below 95 last year. They have some other flamethrowers in their ‘pen – Andrés Muñoz throws 100, but missed most of 2021 with injury. Ken Giles might qualify as a flamethrower eventually, but his recovery from Tommy John so far has him topping out at 95. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the beginning of the 2022 division series preview series, rant about the reinstitution of the zombie runner, applaud the advent of the Ohtani Rule, follow up on a previous Stat Blast by recounting the most consecutive defensive plays a fielder has ever been involved in, and relate an unforgivable Scott Boras pun, then (35:59) bring on R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports to preview the 2022 season in the American League Central, team by team.

Audio intro: Yo La Tengo, “Automatic Doom”
Audio interstitial: Fruit Bats, “My Sweet Midwest”
Audio outro: Kevin Morby, “Don’t Underestimate Midwest American Sun”

Link to news about rules
Link to Ohtani Rule story
Link to study on zombie runner effects
Link to Stanky Draft episode
Link to longest fielder streaks
Link to first Boras quote
Link to second Boras quote
Link to Correa signing story
Link to Guardians sale story
Link to R.J.’s breakout picks
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to RosterResource payroll page
Link to Greinke photo tweet

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Ian Seymour throws ugly, and he looks good doing it. Drafted 57th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 out of Virginia Tech, the 23-year-old southpaw is coming off his first professional season, one in which he logged a 1.95 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 55-and-a-third innings. The dominance came at three levels, with 10 outings in Low-A and two starts each in High- and Triple-A. Especially eye-opening was his September stint at Durham: facing hitters one rung below the majors, he allowed four hits and one unearned run over 10 innings of work.

Augmenting Seymour’s unique delivery is a five-pitch mix that leans heavily on his high-riding heater and a fading changeup, with a sweeping slider emerging as a potential third plus pitch. Dotting corners isn’t part of his attack plan. The erstwhile biology major — Seymour graduated from Virginia Tech last fall — doesn’t dissect hitters so much as he rears back and dares them to make contact. It’s hard to argue with success: Opposing batters slashed .139/.239/.246 against him last season.

Seymour — No. 16 on our newly-released Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects list — discussed his game over the phone last week.

———

David Laurila: What were your expectations going into the 2020 draft, and which teams did you feel would be the best fits for you development-wise? Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, the Rockies cemented another middle-of-the-order player’s status in Denver, signing third baseman Ryan McMahon to a six-year deal that will keep him in town until the end of the 2027 season. The contract guarantee is $70 million and covers four years of free-agent eligibility, as McMahon was still arbitration eligible for 2022 and ’23. The 2021 season was the first time his status as a regular seemed ironclad, and he responded with his best season yet, hitting .255/.331/.449 with 23 homers in 151 games and splitting time between second and third base.

Now, the thought going through your head right now may be, “Uh oh, Szymborski is writing about the Rockies, he must be planning to eviscerate them!” But while that’s frequently a good guess, in this case, this strikes me as a perfectly reasonable contract for them to sign. It’s a long deal for a player who isn’t a star, but like with Steven Matz’s four-year, $44 million deal with the Cardinals, the Rockies aren’t paying McMahon as if he were a star. If three years from now, the relationship between him and ownership has deteriorated, Colorado doesn’t seem likely to send him out of town with a $50 million bonus for his new team.

Let’s start with the ZiPS projections. Read the rest of this entry »