NEW YORK — When Gerrit Cole signed his nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees in December 2019, he no doubt envisioned starting big playoff games in the Bronx in front of a packed house full of screaming fans. But while he’d taken the hill four times for the Yankees in the previous two Octobers, until Tuesday night’s Division Series opener against the Guardians, he’d never gotten to do so while wearing the home pinstripes. In his long-awaited postseason debut at Yankee Stadium, Cole shook off a recent rough stretch, dodged trouble early, found a groove, and turned in an impressive performance, allowing one run over 6.1 innings in a 4-1 victory.

Facing a contact-centric Cleveland team that posted the majors’ lowest swinging strike rate (9.1%) and strikeout rate (18.2%), Cole collected 19 swings and misses from among his 101 pitches (18.8%) and punched out eight hitters (29.6%). He allowed just four hits, including a solo homer by Steven Kwan, walked one and hit one batter. If it wasn’t an overpowering performance, it was nonetheless a rewarding one.

“It was very special for me,” said Cole of leaving the mound to an ovation from the 47,807 fans in the seventh inning, by which point the Yankees had come from behind to secure the lead. “The game’s not over, I left with traffic [on the bases], so it’s not the most comfortable time to acknowledge the crowd, but I certainly felt it and appreciated it… What a wonderful experience to have them behind us.” Read the rest of this entry »

Before Tuesday, this postseason had been a tale of a starting pitcher renaissance, with over a third of the starters in the Wild Card round authoring shutout performances. It was a good bet that we would see more of the same in this season’s first playoff game between the Phillies and Braves, the majors’ second- and seventh-ranked teams, respectively, in starter WAR. Yet neither Max Fried nor Ranger Suárez made it out of the fourth inning, garnering just 10 outs apiece on a warm, sunny day in Atlanta.

Fried didn’t look right from the outset. In his shortest start since April of 2021, his velocity was down across the board. With the exception of his curveball, all of his other pitches saw decreased spin as well, and for some, less movement, too. Fried dealt with similar dips in his last start, but he was also coping with illness. Today’s loss of crispness comes with no such caveat, not to mention six extra days of rest. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners didn’t have an imposing offense this season. They hung their hat on pitching and defense, with a pinch of offense when they most needed it. The Astros turned otherwise-imposing offenses into weaklings; they allowed a shocking 3.2 runs per game, second only to the Dodgers in the majors. They brought out the likely Cy Young winner for today’s matchup. I’m sure you can see where this is going: Seattle scored seven runs and allowed eight.

It’s fair to say that Justin Verlander didn’t have his best stuff today. His slider came out flat; of the first eight that the Mariners swung at, they came up empty on only one. His fastball was scattershot, its normal backspinning movement coming and going, as did his command of the pitch. But he might have gotten away with it, if it weren’t for that meddling kid.

The kid, in this instance, is Julio Rodríguez. He’s an electric talent, a generational Seattle superstar in the mold of Ken Griffey Jr. After a sensational rookie season, he had a quiet start to the playoffs in Toronto, but he was in the straw that stirred the drink for Seattle today. Read the rest of this entry »

7:34	David Laurila: Greetings all. Not sure tonight’s game can top what we just saw in Houston… but you never know.

7:36	David Laurila: The baseball has been good, and we have a lot more in front of us. October is fun. (Less so today if you’re a Mariners fan.)

7:37	David Laurila: No, but as that long ball reminded us, he’s on the short list.

Read the rest of this entry »

Decision-making in the playoffs is a micro-focused as you can imagine. The level of preparation which goes into these games will never be fully known in the public sphere, but if a team wants even the slightest competitive edge, you better believe the details are as granular as the fine sands of Puerto Rico’s Playa Negrita.

Every opposing hitter has a zone and/or pitch that is a weak spot. You must know who on your pitching staff is best suited to throw to those weaknesses, and what hitters are most adaptable to use pitch sequences that will play to those same weaknesses. The following matchups are a few areas that could sway any given game in either direction. They are certainly not the only of high importance, but the statistical or situational holes make them worth mentioning. I’ll go through series by series and pick one that deserves attention, starting with the Yankees against the Guardians.

Guardians’ offense vs. Yankees’ sinkerballers

The Yankees’ bullpen is loaded with turbo sinkers and groundball pitchers. Lou Trivino, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Clay Holmes, to name a few, all feature a sinker as their primary fastball. Each of them will be used in high-leverage scenarios against any layer of the Guardians’ lineup, which has been the very worst in the American League against the sinker, posting the second-lowest wOBA (.317) and the lowest xwOBA (.319).

There’s plenty to suggest the Yankees’ bullpen will give the Guardians issues. Because of those turbo sinkers, New York’s bullpen led all of baseball in GB% (49.1%) and Run Value (-20.3 runs). The next best in both categories was Baltimore, which trailed in each by a decent margin (1.5 percentage points and 1.9 runs). In today’s game, being better than every team at throwing sinkers provides a significant competitive advantage, as it keeps batted balls out of the air and on the ground. Read the rest of this entry »

Did you watch the Guardians and the Rays in their Wild Card Series? It was extremely fun, especially if you hate runs. Everyone got out so much! Both teams had a better WHIP than Justin Verlander. The Guardians batted .171. The Rays batted .115. Together they batted .143. That’s Robbie Ray’s career batting average. Robbie Ray is famously not a hitter.

While Cleveland and Tampa Bay pushed the boundaries of modern science searching for new and innovative ways to not get on base, I noticed that one player seemed to take his failures a bit harder than the rest. See if you can spot it as well. Turn your sound all the way up, especially if you’re at the office. If you’re at an elementary school or a place of worship, see if there’s a public address system you can plug into:

Read the rest of this entry »

When the American League Division Series begins on Tuesday, the Seattle Mariners will take on the Houston Astros as the ultimate underdogs. The Mariners are in the midst of their first postseason run in over 20 years, while the Astros have made their way to the ALCS in each of the past six seasons. No matter how you slice it, the Astros are the overwhelming favorites.

In fact, this might be the most winnable ALDS matchup the Astros have had over their seven-year run. Never before has the gulf between the Astros and their opponent been this wide:

Read the rest of this entry »

Since the dog days of summer, the Yankees’ bullpen has been dogged by injuries and ineffectiveness. It began with the losses of Michael King and Chad Green for the season. But those that shored up the ‘pen in their wake have since gone down as well.

Clay Holmes‘ shoulder issue and recent struggles have called into question just how much the team can rely on him come the playoffs. Surprisingly stellar rookie Ron Marinaccio exited his last regular-season game early due to a lingering shin injury and has been ruled out until at least the ALCS. This came on the heels of Zack Britton’s 60-day IL placement, as his late-season comeback attempt fell short. Stalwarts Wandy Peralta, Miguel Castro, and Albert Abreu are also either still injured or shaking off the rust. Not to mention the unceremonious end to the Aroldis Chapman saga: he was left off of the ALDS roster for missing a mandatory team workout on Sunday.

Thankfully for the Yankees, despite a disastrous trade deadline in which they ended up sacrificing 1.8 WAR, they did manage to acquire some bullpen reinforcements. Relievers tend to accumulate less WAR due to their lower volume of innings, downplaying the surface-level effectiveness and importance of lower-profile acquisitions Scott Effross and Lou Trivino. Their significance is only set to increase with the Yankees’ bullpen situation becoming increasingly dire. (Update: Unfortunately, shortly after this piece was published, Jack Curry of YES Network reported that Effross, who was absent from the Yankees’ ALDS roster when it was released on Tuesday, will need Tommy John surgery.) Read the rest of this entry »

The National League’s adoption of the designated hitter this season eliminated the most noticeable difference between it and the American League. Now, the National League is what makes grown men in scarves weep on public transit, and the American League comes with a slice of melted cheese on top. (No, I have not updated my pop culture references since 2009, and I have no plans to do so.)

The only remaining difference is that the AL gets an extra off day during the Division Series. MLB announced in August that contrary to prior practice, the Division Series would no longer have a travel day between Games 4 and 5. But while the NL would play two games, get a day off, and then play three in a row, the American League gets an extra day off without travel between Games 1 and 2.

When the league announced this new scheme, an obvious question occurred to my colleague Dan Szymborski: How would this affect pitcher usage? Previously, a Division Series contestant could run four pitchers on full rest, and have both its Game 1 and Game 2 starter on full rest for the decisive match, if necessary. Or it could bring back its Game 1 starter on short rest for Game 4, and have everyone else start in order on regular rest. Moving or eliminating the off day throws that practice into chaos. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about what would happen if a dominant starting pitcher were caught using sticky stuff in a playoff game, then set up the biggest storylines and scheduling considerations of the division series round, consider which matchup is most likely to result in an upset, and preview each AL and NL series, plus banter about taxing home run balls, and a Past Blast from 1915.

Audio intro: The Society of Rockets, “Western Division”
Audio outro: Phish, “The Divided Sky”

Link to Musgrove quote
Link to BP’s ALDS previews
Link to BP’s NLDS previews
Link to FG’s Yankees-Guardians preview
Link to midges story
Link to FG’s Dodgers-Padres preview
Link to FG’s Braves-Phillies preview
Link to terms of Strider extension
Link to Bloomberg on HR balls
Link to 1915 story source
Link to SABR on the MLBPA’s origins
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter

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