The Sugar Glum Fairy had one last holiday treat for us before the lockout rudely intervened, with the Cubs signing starting pitcher Marcus Stroman to a three-year contract. After opting out of the 2020 season while recovering from a calf injury, he resumed his career without missing a beat, starting 33 games for the Mets with a 3.02 ERA and 3.49 FIP, good for 3.4 WAR.

Over three years, the total guarantee for the deal is $71 million, with $25 million coming in both 2022 and ’23 and a $21 million base salary for ’24. For each 160-inning season in ’22 and ’23, $2 million is added to the ’24 salary, making it a tidy $75 million. Stroman also has the ability to opt out of the final year of his contract, becoming a free agent after 2023. Let’s jump straight into the projection.

Nothing looks particularly odd about the projection or the contract. At the salary assumption I’m going with this winter ($7.3 million for a win with 3% yearly growth), ZiPS would suggest a $70 million deal over three years; over five, it suggests $109 million, putting Stroman’s valuation very close to both that of Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman. Stroman, though, was not subject to a qualifying offer due to accepting New York’s qualifying offer for the 2021 season (Gausman was in an identical position, but Ray cost the Mariners a draft pick). I’m mildly surprised that he didn’t land a longer deal, but whether the fact that he didn’t was due to inability to get one or simply a desire to get another crack at free agency in the not-too-distant future in a normal winter is unknown to me. If I ran a team or the MLBPA foolishly accepted a bizarre proposal from owners that resulted in my computer setting all salaries, I’d be happy to give him five years at $109 million. (Note to any negotiators: the Szymborski cartel’s service fee is 0.05% of base salary)
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The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Early Baseball Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For an introduction to the ballot, see here, and for an introduction to JAWS, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Dick “Cannonball” Redding

“From 1911 when he broke into fast company, until a few years ago he used nothing but his smoke ball. And it was impossible to hit it. I know, because I have tried,” Ben Taylor, Hall of Fame first baseman, 1925

“Redding would show the batter his back for perhaps two seconds while balancing on his right foot before letting go with his fastball. The fans loved this bit of showmanship and batters found that it did not detract from the speed of the pitch.” — Robert Peterson, Only the Ball Was White, 1970

Dick Redding was one of the best pitchers in the decade before the Negro Leagues formed, an imposing, overpowering righty who earned the nickname “Cannonball” thanks to his smoking fastball. Standing 6-foot-4 (though some sources only report 6-foot-1) and weighing 210 to 245 pounds, he had huge hands that could hide a baseball, and dealt in deception and disruption, working with a no-windup delivery with his back to the hitter and later adding a hesitation pitch that predated that of Satchel Paige. He threw only fastballs early in his career, albeit with pinpoint control (“three pitches — fastball on the outer half, fastball down the middle and fastball inside,” as David Barr wrote) and the threat of a brushback; later, he added a curveball and a fadeaway (screwball). He had exceptional stamina, generally finishing what he started and sometimes pitching two or three days worth of doubleheaders in a row. Read the rest of this entry »

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You already basically know how these free agent pieces go. Team signs player! The player makes sense for the team, because, well, that’s why they signed him. If you look on the bright side, it could be a great fit. If you inject a little realism, there’s certainly a chance it doesn’t end up in smiles all around. Throw in some analysis and projections, and bam, you’ve got an article going.

As is probably clear from that introduction, I’m not doing that today. Baseball is a real bummer right now. I might spend the next week trying to understand the phrase “defensive lockout,” which makes about as much sense as the Rockies’ personnel decisions. There won’t be much news at all, and what news there is will feature headlines like “League accuses MLBPA of witchcraft.”

Forget all that. Before the curtains closed, the Red Sox signed Rich Hill to a one-year deal for $5 million plus incentives. Good God, does Rich Hill love the Red Sox. This is already his seventh time signing with them (2010, 2010 again, 2011, 2014, 2014 again, 2015, and now 2021). He’s from Milton, 10 miles (or 45 minutes in miserable traffic on the 93) from Fenway Park. He attended the 2004 championship parade with his dad, for crying out loud. Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, we published an update to our 2022 Draft rankings. Today, I pushed 2023 and 2024 to The Board, with the small 2024 group consisting almost entirely of our highly-ranked, unsigned 2021 high schoolers.

The most significant takeaway from the 2023 class is its projected strength at the top. There’s currently only one 50 FV prospect in the 2022 class, but already three atop the 2023 group: Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez, Wake Forest third baseman Brock Wilken, and LSU outfielder Dylan Crews. That’s more than has been typical for a class that’s still a year and a half away from draft day. Gonzalez has special bat-to-ball skills and can play a premium position, Wilken already has 70-grade raw power and rare athleticism for a corner defender, and Crews performed in the SEC and reinforced confidence in the huge tools that made him famous as a high schooler.

This group may eventually be joined by more prospects. Most of the college players who will be eligible in 2023 are still teenagers right now, and some of them have not even had the opportunity to play consistently as they are coming off freshman seasons at big, talent-rich programs. With a couple of obviously excellent prospects already in place at the top of the class, and so much of the rest of it still in a magmatic stage of development, the 2023 draft has a shot to be pretty special up top. Read the rest of this entry »

The season is over, but Chin Music rolls on, as Lindsey Adler of The Athletic takes a spin in the revolving co-host chair. We sure have plenty to talk about, and we begin with (what else?) the lockout, though not in the sense of how we got here or how it ends. Instead, we consider what is or isn’t going on in front offices and throughout baseball right now, and just how draconian the league has been in enforcing its lockout rules. Then we discuss the insanity that was the free agent frenzy in the days leading up to the lockout, as we try to figure out why teams behaved the way they did and what it might mean. Then we get away from baseball for a bit with our guest segment, as professional poker player Brandon Shack-Harris joins the show to talk about his recently concluded World Series, catching COVID, wearing bear suits at the table, and how he learned how to play from the lead singer of Muse. Then it’s your emails on the Winter Meetings, drugs, and scouting scales, followed by some high- and low-brow entries in the Moment Of Culture.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

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Warning One: While ostensibly a podcast about baseball, these conversations often veer into other subjects.

Warning Two: There is explicit language.

Run Time: 2:38:28

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the beginning of the lockout, which marks MLB’s ninth work stoppage and the first in 26 years. They also discuss a flurry of buzzer-beating transactions, including the Dodgers re-signing Chris Taylor, the Cubs signing Marcus Stroman, the Brewers and Red Sox swapping Jackie Bradley Jr. and Hunter Renfroe, and the Red Sox remaking their rotation with Rich Hill and James Paxton. Then (32:13) they bring on Indiana University professor and FanGraphs contributor Nathaniel Grow to discuss the significance of the lockout, what can and can’t happen while the lockout is in place, how and when it might be resolved, challenging MLB’s antitrust exemption, and more.

Audio intro: Crowded House, “Locked Out”
Audio interstitial: Lucinda Williams, “Changed the Locks”
Audio outro: Pink Floyd, “The Show Must Go On“

Link to Manfred’s letter
Link to Tony Clark’s statement
Link to Manfred’s press conference
Link to more Manfred and Clark comments
Link to Ben Clemens on Taylor
Link to Eric Longenhagen on Renfroe/Bradley
Link to Kevin Goldstein on Iglesias
Link to Dan Szymborski on Paxton
Link to last Evan Drellich podcast appearance
Link to Evan on the most divisive issues
Link to Evan on the start of the lockout
Link to Evan on the path to the lockout
Link to Nathaniel’s CBA preview
Link to Nathaniel’s lockout preview
Link to Travis Sawchik on 1995 signings
Link to Ben on spring training for free agents
Link to Mike Axisa on work stoppage rules
Link to Nathaniel on the antitrust exemption
Link to Baseball on Trial
Link to Effectively Wild Secret Santa
Link to Travis on agents and earnings
Link to Shi Davidi on the Gausman signing
Link to Davidi on Gausman vs. Ray
Link to Stove League teaser video
Link to Stove League review
Link to stream Stove League via Kocowa
Link to stream Stove League via Viki

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Episode 951

This week we attempt to react to the tidal wave of baseball news and transactions, including a focus on two teams that look like they’re ready to compete in the AL West.

• To kick things off, David Laurila welcomes Matt Hicks, a radio broadcaster for the Texas Rangers, and Shannon Drayer, an ESPN radio journalist who covers the Seattle Mariners. David asks about their respective clubs’ spending sprees, from Marcus Semien to Corey Seager to Robbie Ray. We also hear about how important Chris Young is to the Rangers, what Scott Servais means to the Mariners, the clubs’ biggest rivalries in the division and elsewhere, and what effect these moves have on the teams’ willingness to go for it in 2022. [2:42]
• In the second half, Ben Clemens and Jason Martinez take in the flurry of moves leading up to the expiration of the CBA. They discuss who a lockout is hardest for, how to encourage competition, and what expanded playoff formats could look like. We also learn about brinksmanship and what a break in transactions over the winter could look and feel like. [41:42]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 1 hour 11 minutes play time.)

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Late Wednesday night, the Red Sox and Brewers consummated a trade that sent rightfielder Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee in exchange for centerfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects, shortstop David Hamilton and first baseman Alex Binelas. It was the last agreed-upon trade prior to MLB owners locking out the players at midnight.

While Bradley has had an excellent big league career, the center of this trade is Renfroe, who heads to his fourth team in four years and is coming off a 2021 in which he slashed .259/.315/.501 and cleared the 30-homer benchmark for the second time in his career. He becomes the fourth right-handed hitter acquired by Milwaukee over the last couple of weeks, after corner infielder Mike Brosseau, catcher Pedro Severino, and non-roster invite centerfielder Jonathan Davis. By wRC+, Milwaukee was 26th in baseball against left-handed pitching (96) in 2021; Renfroe is a career .263/.346/.557 hitter against southpaws and should help in this area immediately. And while there’s not a clear platoon partner for him in Milwaukee right now, perhaps Jace Peterson or Rowdy Tellez will take key late-game at-bats against righties in his stead or make the occasional start. Renfroe’s defense — especially his incredible arm, which is one of the best in pro baseball — gives him a little extra utility on days when he’s starting against a righty.

Renfroe has two years of team control remaining, as 2022 will be his second arbitration year and ’23 will be his last before hitting free agency after the season. Milwaukee has some similarly-skilled outfield prospects on the way in Joe Gray Jr. and Joey Wiemer, but unless they ascend more quickly than expected, it’s a safer bet that Renfroe wraps his pre-free agency days as a key cog in Milwaukee.

Conversely, this trade leaves Boston without a powerful, right-handed hitting outfielder on their roster. Obviously the Red Sox can continue to shape their roster after the lockout ends, but its current composition is heavy on lefty sticks in the outfield (Bradley, Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo). The on-roster solution is for Christian Arroyo to get infield starts against lefties with Enrique Hernández moving to the outfield on those days. Another path may be for Jeter Downs (who had a terrible summer, rebounded in the Fall League, and was added to the 40-man last month) to push for at-bats in a fashion similar to Arroyo or be present depth behind him, as Arroyo gets hurt a lot. Or Triston Casas could kick down the door and claim the everyday first base job at some point, which would open up a lefty-mashing four corners role for Bobby Dalbec. There are clear, on-roster avenues for Boston’s pieces to compliment one another, though the front office probably is not done shaping the fringes of the roster.
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The Los Angeles Dodgers’ brand is synonymous with superstars. It’s Clayton Kershaw, Mookie Betts, and deadline trades for Max Scherzer. Have a problem that needs a hammer? The Dodgers will bring two hammers, and they’ll have Walker Buehler on standby just in case. Those are the perks of having both one of the shrewdest front offices in baseball and one of the highest payrolls in the sport every year.

It’s funny, then, that Chris Taylor is one of the team’s greatest success stories. Taylor came to the Dodgers as an afterthought, in exchange for Zach Lee, a minor league pitcher who made all of 14 starts in the Seattle system before the team waived him. Six years later, Taylor is again headed to Los Angeles — but this time he’s doing it as a very rich man rather than a career minor leaguer. He and the Dodgers agreed to a four-year contract worth $60 million, as Ken Rosenthal reported. The deal also contains a team option for a fifth year.

All of that stuff I said at the top about the Dodgers and stars? It’s true, but the Los Angeles roster relies on positional versatility to make everything work. Taylor is the poster boy for this style: he played at least 50 innings at second, third, short, left, center, and right last year. Corey Seager injury? Taylor can fill in. Strange lineup with Max Muncy at second and Cody Bellinger at first? Taylor can flip to center — or to third base if Justin Turner needs a breather. Seager is gone, but with Trea Turner as a one-for-one replacement, Taylor will likely continue to get near-everyday playing time without a true home in the field. Read the rest of this entry »