If you weren’t looking for it, you’d miss it. Buried in a blow-by-blow account from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb of how the Phillies ended up signing Kyle Schwarber, FanGraphs newsletter writer Jeffrey Bellone spotted something interesting:

“However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).”

This change was an afterthought in the piece, an offhand justification the Phillies made for not acquiring Kevin Kiermaier. His remaining average salary outstrips the average annual value of his deal, which means that under the terms of the new CBA, he’d carry a higher tax hit than he would have in the old regime. The ownership group’s desire to abide by the sport’s soft salary cap made Kiermaier’s salary an untenable addition.

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems that ownership didn’t actually care about the dollars very much, given that they signed Nick Castellanos and ticked over the first CBT threshold anyway. And given that the tax rate is 20%, the difference in Kiermaier’s tax hit under the old and new agreements is a hair under $6 million; the total monetary difference would have been roughly $1 million in assessed tax. That’s a vanishingly small difference on a $230 million payroll.

I’ll level with you: I don’t think this is going to be an earth-shaking change to the economics of baseball. Only five teams look likely to pay any tax this year, with a few other in hailing distance of the barrier. The differences aren’t huge; $6 million a year isn’t quite a rounding error, but it’s hardly a life-and-death number. Remember: teams are not actually paying Kiermaier $6 million more than they would have before. Salary is salary. This is merely an accounting game that affects teams who pay at least some amount of tax.

Still, we analysts love financial tomfoolery, so let’s consider a few contracts that are interestingly shaped now that trades can trigger the re-calculation of tax numbers. First, a quick disclaimer: I haven’t seen the exact text of the new agreement. It’s unclear how the Rays’ CBT number would be affected by trading Kiermaier; I’m assuming no effect, but if that isn’t the case, that obviously changes the calculus. It’s not clear how signing bonuses will be handled, either; it appears that it would be spread evenly across each year, but again, I’m working from the outside.
Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 967

On this week’s show, David Laurila welcomes Alex Coffey, a sportswriter for The Philadelphia Inquirer covering the Philadelphia Phillies.

David and Alex both attended Nick Castellanos’ signing press conference in Florida, and discuss how the outfielder is going to fit on a team that may already struggle defensively. Alex also shares what it’s like to watch Bryce Harper take batting practice and lead a team, and how great it has been to interview Phillies like Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Gibson now that clubhouse access has been restored. We also hear about the team’s center field position battle and how Matt Vierling could potentially impress in the role.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 26 minute play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Baseball Prospectus editor-in-chief Craig Goldstein banter about a contentious Baseball Prospectus headline and an overlooked Scott Boras quote, then preview the 2022 season in the National League West, team by team (plus closing banter about the Baseball Prospectus annual).

Audio intro: Big Star, “Way Out West”
Audio outro: The New Pornographers, “The Fake Headlines”

Link to BP zombie runner story
Link to Boras quote about Correa
Link to Ben’s old ouroBoras tweet
Link to Snell on sandwiches
Link to Trout on cutting sandwiches
Link to Craig on the Dodgers
Link to BP playoff odds
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to R.J.’s breakout picks
Link to Jarrín’s retirement story
Link to Michael Ajeto on Heaney
Link to Gore spring training story
Link to Jeff Passan on Story
Link to Ajeto on Gallen
Link to buy the BP annual
Link to Votto’s Instagram post
Link to Ben’s Ohtani article

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I have a schematic in my head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. You, as someone who reads FanGraphs, probably have an idea in your head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. They’re probably the same ideas – assemble a stable of guys who can throw 98. If that doesn’t work, assemble a stable of guys who can throw 99, and add wipeout sliders until it clicks.

The Mariners had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year, and they nearly rode that unit – and their resulting excellent performance in close games – to the playoffs. You don’t coin “fun differential” if you don’t have a good bullpen. Yesterday, the team bolstered this year’s version by signing Sergio Romo to a one-year deal worth $2 million (or up to $2.25 million with incentives). In doing so, they added to a truly interesting unit that will look to back up last year’s spectacular performance while eschewing the way that their competitors look to combine relievers, at least to a degree.

In 2021, 135 relievers threw at least 20 innings while averaging 95 mph or higher on their fastballs. The Mariners will employ one of them – Diego Castillo – this year, and he’s only on the list due to his rarely-used four-seamer, as his sinker dipped below 95 last year. They have some other flamethrowers in their ‘pen – Andrés Muñoz throws 100, but missed most of 2021 with injury. Ken Giles might qualify as a flamethrower eventually, but his recovery from Tommy John so far has him topping out at 95. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the beginning of the 2022 division series preview series, rant about the reinstitution of the zombie runner, applaud the advent of the Ohtani Rule, follow up on a previous Stat Blast by recounting the most consecutive defensive plays a fielder has ever been involved in, and relate an unforgivable Scott Boras pun, then (35:59) bring on R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports to preview the 2022 season in the American League Central, team by team.

Audio intro: Yo La Tengo, “Automatic Doom”
Audio interstitial: Fruit Bats, “My Sweet Midwest”
Audio outro: Kevin Morby, “Don’t Underestimate Midwest American Sun”

Link to news about rules
Link to Ohtani Rule story
Link to study on zombie runner effects
Link to Stanky Draft episode
Link to longest fielder streaks
Link to first Boras quote
Link to second Boras quote
Link to Correa signing story
Link to Guardians sale story
Link to R.J.’s breakout picks
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to RosterResource payroll page
Link to Greinke photo tweet

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Ian Seymour throws ugly, and he looks good doing it. Drafted 57th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 out of Virginia Tech, the 23-year-old southpaw is coming off his first professional season, one in which he logged a 1.95 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 55-and-a-third innings. The dominance came at three levels, with 10 outings in Low-A and two starts each in High- and Triple-A. Especially eye-opening was his September stint at Durham: facing hitters one rung below the majors, he allowed four hits and one unearned run over 10 innings of work.

Augmenting Seymour’s unique delivery is a five-pitch mix that leans heavily on his high-riding heater and a fading changeup, with a sweeping slider emerging as a potential third plus pitch. Dotting corners isn’t part of his attack plan. The erstwhile biology major — Seymour graduated from Virginia Tech last fall — doesn’t dissect hitters so much as he rears back and dares them to make contact. It’s hard to argue with success: Opposing batters slashed .139/.239/.246 against him last season.

Seymour — No. 16 on our newly-released Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects list — discussed his game over the phone last week.

———

David Laurila: What were your expectations going into the 2020 draft, and which teams did you feel would be the best fits for you development-wise? Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, the Rockies cemented another middle-of-the-order player’s status in Denver, signing third baseman Ryan McMahon to a six-year deal that will keep him in town until the end of the 2027 season. The contract guarantee is $70 million and covers four years of free-agent eligibility, as McMahon was still arbitration eligible for 2022 and ’23. The 2021 season was the first time his status as a regular seemed ironclad, and he responded with his best season yet, hitting .255/.331/.449 with 23 homers in 151 games and splitting time between second and third base.

Now, the thought going through your head right now may be, “Uh oh, Szymborski is writing about the Rockies, he must be planning to eviscerate them!” But while that’s frequently a good guess, in this case, this strikes me as a perfectly reasonable contract for them to sign. It’s a long deal for a player who isn’t a star, but like with Steven Matz’s four-year, $44 million deal with the Cardinals, the Rockies aren’t paying McMahon as if he were a star. If three years from now, the relationship between him and ownership has deteriorated, Colorado doesn’t seem likely to send him out of town with a $50 million bonus for his new team.

Let’s start with the ZiPS projections. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers have had a busy offseason. They’ve guaranteed more than half a billion dollars in new free agent contracts — by far the largest outlay in baseball — and made a major trade for a new starting catcher. Yet despite adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to vastly improve the top end of their lineup, and Jon Gray to anchor their rotation, the Rangers lacked for depth. So to address some of the lingering holes on their roster, they signed a handful of additional players over the last week. They inked Brad Miller to a two-year, $10 million contract on Thursday, and Garrett Richards to a one-year, $4.5 million deal on Sunday with a $9 million club option for 2023 and a $1 million buyout. They also signed Greg Holland, Charlie Culberson, Matt Carpenter to minor league contracts over the last week. Those five players add some much needed depth to their roster.

Miller, Carpenter, and Culberson all seem like additions to address the loss of top prospect Josh Jung, who was expected to challenge for the starting third base role in camp. He tore the labrum in his left shoulder in late February and underwent surgery to repair the injury, sidelining him for most if not all of the season. After trading Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the in-house options to replace Jung were Andy Ibáñez and Nick Solak, both of whom have shown at least some promise in the recent past. Bringing in some additional spring competition for the position provides the Rangers an opportunity to find the right fit in 2022.

Each of the players above can play multiple positions, giving the Rangers plenty of options to fill out their lineup. There isn’t room for all six of those players on the Opening Day roster, so the competition for those few spots will be fierce during the compressed spring. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m sorry this has taken so long. I saw your tweets wondering where I was and when the next podcast would post, but I couldn’t say anything yet. When you go to work for a team, getting from agreeing to terms to actually starting involves dotting all sorts of I’s and crossing all sorts of T’s.

But now I can tell you that last week, I accepted a position with the Minnesota Twins. I’ll be serving as the team’s Special Assistant, Player Personnel; my streak of baseball titles that contain a comma continues. I will be providing individual player assessments, as well as broader process advice across the team’s international, pro, and amateur player evaluation groups. The role is similar to the one I had in Houston. I used to joke that I had the best job in the organization, only I wasn’t joking. I didn’t think I’d get to say that again while working for a team, but getting to know the front office group in Minnesota convinced me that it was time to step back into the fray. They’re an incredible group of people and I can’t wait to be a part of the organization.

I had plenty of discussions with other teams during my year-plus away from that side of the industry. I turned down some deeper talks and one out-of-the-blue job offer, but it just never felt right. Maybe it was me, maybe it was them, maybe it wasn’t the time. Quite frankly, I was at peace with never working for a team again. That’s not even the right phrase. I was exceptionally happy working at FanGraphs, and as excited as I am to be joining the Twins, it comes with some bittersweet feelings regarding my exit from this wonderful place. Read the rest of this entry »