Episode 953

On this week’s show, FanGraphs’ very own Hall of Fame voters go over their ballot options before a segment about the weird offseason.

• To kick things off, Jay Jaffe and David Laurila discuss this year’s complicated Hall of Fame ballot. They each voted for the first time last year (as discussed on episode 898), and the second time around does not look to be any easier. Jay and David go through the ballot’s many compelling candidates and the pressure they feel with their votes, as well as the challenge of telling the story of baseball without key players, before comparing the cases of Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. [2:58]
• In the second half, Eric Longenhagen catches up with Ben Clemens as they discuss baseball’s second straight strange winter. While the pair agree that being able to recharge has been nice, there has still been LIDOM and prospect coverage to keep Eric busy. We hear about — and watch some footage of — exciting players like Wirfin Obispo, Garrett Acton, and Colin Poche, before a deeper conversation about the scientific relationship between arm angle and natural fastball movement. [29:30]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 1 hour 4 minutes play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the United States of Shohei Ohtani and Baseball-Reference player page popularity, a perplexing fact about fielding percentage, time-shifted baseball (and watching only wins), learning to love a sport later in life, whether pruney fingers would be a performance-enhancer for pitchers, the great rosin bag battle of the 1920s and ’30s, sketching Mike Trout, and more.

Audio intro: Sparks, “Popularity”
Audio outro: The Electric Prunes, “It’s Not Fair”

Link to Baseball-Reference year-end stats
Link to Trueblood tweet about fielding percentage
Link to EW email questions database
Link to pruney skin explainer
Link to historical life expectancy story
Link to Craig R. Wright on rosin bags
Link to Wright’s subscription story series
Link to Rob Arthur on the spin rate resurgence
Link to Alex Speier on testing tacky baseballs
Link to Trout sketches on Reddit
Link to Patreon trivia contest
Link to stream Stove League via Viki

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2018 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Content warning: This piece contains details about alleged domestic violence and sexual harassment. The content may be difficult to read and emotionally upsetting.

In the eyes of many, Omar Vizquel was the successor to Ozzie Smith when it came to dazzling defense. Thanks to the increased prevalence of highlight footage on the internet and on cable shows such as ESPN’s SportsCenter and Baseball Tonight, the diminutive Venezuelan shortstop’s barehanded grabs, diving stops, and daily acrobatics were seen by far more viewers than Smith’s ever were. Vizquel made up for having a less-than-prototypically-strong arm with incredibly soft hands and a knack for advantageous positioning. Such was the perception of his prowess at the position that he took home 11 Gold Gloves, more than any shortstop this side of Smith, who won 13.

Vizquel’s offense was at least superficially akin to Smith’s: He was a singles-slapping switch-hitter in lineups full of bigger bats and, at his best, a capable table-setter who got on base often enough to score 80, 90, or even 100 runs in some seasons. His ability to move the runner over with a sacrifice bunt or a productive out delighted purists, and he could steal a base, too. While he lacked power, he dealt in volume, piling up more hits (2,877) than all but four players who spent the majority of their careers at shortstop and are now in the Hall of Fame: Derek Jeter (3,465), Honus Wagner (3,420), Cal Ripken Jr. (3,184), and Robin Yount (3,142). Vizquel is second only to Jeter using the strict as-shortstop splits, which we don’t have for Wagner (though we do know the Flying Dutchman spent 31% of his defensive innings at other positions). During his 11-year run in Cleveland (1994–2004), Vizquel helped his team to six playoff appearances and two pennants. Read the rest of this entry »

Logan Davidson struggled to find himself in 2021. Two years after being drafted 29th overall by the Oakland A’s out of Clemson University, the 23-year-old shortstop slashed a paltry .212/.307/.313 with 155 strikeouts in 515 plate appearances with the Double-A Midland RockHounds. Continuity proved elusive. In almost chameleon-like fashion, Davidson went back to the drawing board time and again over the course of the season.

His quest to discover a productive stroke continued in the Arizona Fall League, where he put up numbers far more pleasing to the eye. Playing for the Mesa Solar Sox, Davidson logged a .274/.400/.411 slash line in 90 plate appearances. Promising as that was, punch-outs remained a problem. The switch-hitting infielder went down on strikes 33 times.

In a refreshingly candid interview during the penultimate week of the Arizona Fall League season, Davidson — No. 24 on our newly-released Oakland A’s Top Prospects list — discussed his 2021 struggles.

———

David Laurila: To start, how do you identify as a hitter?

Logan Davidson: “I’d say I’m gap-to-gap, a line-drive guy who is going to run into some power. I’m working on the strikeouts. Obviously, I’m a pretty big swing-and-miss guy right now. I’m trying to get a solid approach, seeing balls up and hitting pitches that I’m supposed to hit, and taking pitches you’re supposed to take. That’s pretty much it: a gap-to-gap guy who is working on cutting down the strikeouts.”

Laurila: Why have there been so many strikeouts? Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Oakland Athletics. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about how baseball writers are coping with the lockout, revisit the burst of spending that preceded its start, and marvel at the wide variety of Hall of Fame ballots that have surfaced so far. Then (19:01) they talk to Sean Gibson and Ted Knorr, two of the founders of the 42 for 21 Committee, about getting greater recognition for Negro Leaguers and other stars of Black baseball, their efforts to improve the Hall of Fame induction process, and the most deserving pre-integration Cooperstown candidates who are still outside the Hall. Finally (54:14), they talk to Dr. Sally Yerkovich, a professor of Museum Anthropology at Columbia University, about the field of museum ethics, the challenges confronting modern museums, and the parallels between the thorny issues other institutions face and Hall of Fame voters’ character clause dilemma.

Audio intro: Basic Plumbing, “Too Slow”
Audio interstitial: Paul Weller, “The Strange Museum”
Audio outro: Tiny Ruins, “Me at the Museum, You in the Wintergardens”

Link to Ben Clemens on free agent spending
Link to Clemens on math and walk rates
Link to BBHOF Ballot Tracker
Link to Jay Jaffe on Bonds/Clemens/Sosa/Schilling
Link to 42 for 21 website
Link to 42 for 21 Committee press release
Link to 42 for 21 on FanGraphs Audio
Link to info on HoF committee membership
Link to Sean’s previous appearance on EW
Link to Josh Gibson Foundation website
Link to Ted Knorr on Rap Dixon
Link to Dixon’s SABR bio
Link to Rap Dixon NLBM page
Link to John Beckwith NLBM page
Link to George Stovey NLBM page
Link to Gus Greenlee NLBM page
Link to Adam Darowski EW episode
Link to list of upcoming HoF elections
Link to Dr. Yerkovich’s Columbia bio
Link to A Practical Guide to Museum Ethics
Link to Institute of Museum Ethics website
Link to Jared Diamond on the character clause
Link to Michael Baumann on the character clause
Link to Puckett’s Hall of Fame page
CW // Link to SI report about Puckett
CW // Link to report about Puig
CW // Link to allegations by Bonds’s ex-wife
CW // Link to allegations by Bonds’s ex-girlfriend
CW // Link to Britni de la Cretaz on Bonds
Link to Negro Leagues MLEs explainers
Link to podcast about Negro Leagues MLEs
Link to Hamtramck Stadium website
Link to Hamtramck Stadium video
Link to Patreon trivia contest
Link to stream Stove League via Viki

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the reasons for and consequences of MLB’s lack of compelling record chases (à la Alex Ovechkin’s in the NHL, Stephen Curry’s in the NBA, and Tom Brady’s in the NFL). Then (21:16) they talk to Sam Dingman and Mac Montandon, the hosts of The Rumor, a just-completed six-part narrative podcast about a rumor that a fight between Cal Ripken Jr. and Kevin Costner caused the Orioles to cancel a game to preserve Ripken’s consecutive-games streak, touching on the origins, prevalence, and plausibility of the rumor, their reporting process, baseball hero worship, the interviews they wish they could have done, the appeal of baseball rumors, ideas for The Rumor Season 2, and more.

Audio intro: Ian Hunter, “Old Legends Never Die”
Audio interstitial: The Records, “Rumour Sets the Woods Alight”
Audio outro: Electric Light Orchestra, “The Lights Go Down”

Link to Sam Miller on unbreakable records
Link to Sam on hitting .400
Link to Sam on a 21-strikeout game
Link to Neil Paine on Ovechkin
Link to Zach Kram on Curry
Link to USA Today on Brady
Link to article on Franco’s on-base streak
Link to research on days off and offense
Link to The Rumor
Link to Vulture interview about The Rumor
Link to video of record-breaking Ripken game
Link to Secret Base video about the rumor
Link to Randy Johnson EW interview
Link to story on Jeter’s gift baskets
Link to “Yeah Jeets” story
Link to Paul Pierce pooping story
Link to Ripken’s 2001 ASG homer
Link to article about “pipe shots”
Link to Emma Baccellieri on baseball mud
Link to Patreon trivia contest
Link to Stove League teaser video
Link to stream Stove League via Kocowa
Link to stream Stove League via Viki

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
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We’re digging deep into the archives today. I’ve been meaning to write about a weird mathematical phenomenon in baseball for more than a year, and now seems like a great time to break it out. It all starts, naturally enough, with an Effectively Wild episode from 2019. That episode was about the Grand Junction Rockies’ name non-change – but it was also about the annual congressional baseball game.

Unless you follow Louisiana politics, you may not have heard of Cedric Richmond, but he figures prominently in our tale today. After a 10-year career in the House of Representatives (Orleans Parish, Louisiana), Richmond left to head the Office of Public Liaison. It’s a good thing for the balance of the annual congressional baseball game, because as Nathaniel Rakich so ably put it, Richmond was that contest’s equivalent of Mike Trout crossed with Max Scherzer, only if Scherzer got to pitch in every game.

At the time of the episode, Richmond had played eight congressional baseball games and amassed 2.5 WAR, which works out to a 50-WAR pace in a 162-game season, a number that doesn’t make any sense in the context of major league baseball. Richmond pitched at Morehouse, and while his pitching skills weren’t enough to float a minor league career, they’re comically better than your average congressperson’s. We’re talking about Jacob deGrom level dominance on the mound – at the time of the podcast, Richmond had put up a 2.20 ERA and struck out more than a quarter of the batters he faced, and completed all but one of the games he started. In a high-scoring environment (well, for people not facing Richmond), that worked out to 1.8 WAR on the pitching side.

We’re not here to talk about Richmond’s pitching, though. That’s great, and good, and his hitting is much funnier. He was hitting .652/.758/1.087, which is, uh… yeah, it’s off the charts. It’s hard to comprehend how good that is, in fact, because we don’t have any .650 hitters or .750 OBP types to create a mental framework. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Content warning: This piece, and the original pieces to which it links, contains details about alleged domestic violence and sexual impropriety. The content may be difficult to read and emotionally upsetting.

Ten years ago, one of the most talented classes of first-year Hall of Fame candidates landed on the BBWAA ballot. From a group that included Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Kenny Lofton, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa — not to mention four holdover candidates subsequently elected by the writers, and three chosen by the Era Committees — the writers elected no one, pitching their first shutout in 17 years. Voting hasn’t been the same since. While Biggio and Piazza were eventually elected by the writers, the quartet of Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa has not been, and none of the four is likely to reach the magic 75% this year, either. Their continued presence on the ballot, and the rancorous debate that’s surrounded their candidacies, has at times gummed up the process, diverting attention away from other compelling candidates and souring many participants and observers on the entire process. The politics of glory, indeed.

The polarizing public debate surrounding candidates linked to performance-enhancing drugs — a group that at the time included not just Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa but also Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro — led the Hall’s board of directors to change the rules mid-candidacy by reducing players’ windows of eligibility from 15 years to 10. Where Hall president Jeff Idelson said in 2011 with regards to PED-linked candidates, “[W]e’re happy with the diligence of the voters who have participated, and the chips will fall as they fall,” once it became apparent that Bonds and Clemens were trending towards election, the institution put its thumb on the scale via board member Joe Morgan’s open plea for voters not to consider steroid users. Morgan’s letter conveniently sidestepped the likelihood that some steroid users — and numerous known users of another performance-enhancing drug, amphetamines — had already been elected. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

The offense’s resurgence from 13th in the National League in runs scored in 2020 to fourth in ’21 was one of the big reasons the Reds stubbornly hung on to the edge of the Wild Card race for most of the second half of the season. Jonathan India not only survived in the majors but thrived, winning the Rookie of the Year award with a borderline star season and providing the team a significant boost. Tyler Stephenson wasn’t too far from a Rookie of the Year vote of his own, at least on my ballot. Joey Votto pushed back Father Time yet again, at least for the one season, and Nick Castellanos hit like the Reds expected him to when they signed him. Kyle Farmer was hardly a great shortstop, but the position would have been an even worse problem if Cincy’s wild plan to make the former backup catcher their shortstop had not worked out acceptably. Read the rest of this entry »